Archive for Edinson Volquez

Once a fantasy superstar, always a fantasy superstar? Not so much if you’re Edinson Volquez.

Volquez put up dominant fantasy numbers in 2008, winning 17 games with an ERA of 3.20. However, neither his FIP nor xFIP was entirely impressive, mostly because his walk rate was worrisome.

When Volquez tried to duplicate his numbers during the 2009 season, he was shut down and had to undergo Tommy John surgery after throwing less than 50 innings. In those innings, Volquez’s control got worse, as did his ground ball rate and his ability to miss bats. Calling 2009 a disaster for Volquez is putting it lightly.

After returning from injury late this season, Volquez started out very slow for the Reds. His control problems were back, and he was giving up way too many homers. But, in miraculous fashion, Volquez turned the corner big time in September, looking better than he did in 2008. His ability to miss bats was at an all-time high, and he did a great job of keeping the walks to a minimum and delivering ground balls.

Even in his best year, his WHIP was high and his K/BB rate was not spectacular. But, he was only 24 at the times, and the extra two years (even if they were shortened by injury) could have done him a world of good.

So, here’s the question I have for you: Will owners buy into his strong finish and his name value, or are they far too skeptical to assign much value to Volquez? To date, this is the toughest one to gauge, at least for me.

Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

Edinson Volquez has had many ups and downs this season, including a steroid suspension that was ignored, a return to the bigs, a trip back to the minors, and then back into the big league rotation. Like Scherzer, Volquez’s brief minor league “tune up” did wonders for him as far as we can tell.

The last time someone talked about Volquez at this great site of baseball worship Volquez, the G-Unit said this about the Reds’ starter:

“To this point, Volquez has exhibited a power arsenal, if little idea of how to spot his wicked pitches.”

That is classic Volquez. Very good pitches, but problems putting it all together. But, he’s done a great job putting it all together recently, albeit in a very small sampling.

September
In three starts this month, Volquez has an xFIP of 2.95 thanks to more than a strikeout an inning, and a BB/9 under 3. While his strikeout rate is about right, it’s a surprise to see his BB/9 be so low, because even during his great 2008, Volquez’s control wasn’t great.

All of Volquez’s pitches have been thrown for strikes at least 60% of the time during September, with all of them getting whiffs at least 10% of the time. For good measure, he’s thrown his changeup 26% of the time, and has gotten a whiff on over 31% of occasions. That, my friends, is amazing, and probably unprecedented. Overall, he has lead the league in whiff% this month, coming in at over 16%.

Has Edinson Volquez returned to the form that made his 2008 so special? Could be, but we really don’t know. Of course, with any small sample comes the warnings (small samples may be dangerous to your health, consult a doctor if a sample lasts less than fours hours, etc.), but this has been a really good sign of things to come. He’s never going to be a pitcher with superb control, but he could be able to keep his BB/9 around 3.50 and be a very successful starter.

Volquez will likely be a key cog for in the Reds’ playoff machine, and having the opportunity to watch him pitch against good competition will be a big part in helping to determine his ADP next year. My guess is that Volquez will end up going under the radar, and could be a nice value pick in drafts as long as he doesn’t explode during the playoffs.

Considering that Cincy sits a game up on the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central and has a three-in-four-shot of making the playoffs according to CoolStandings, chances are we’re going to experience a Red October for the first time since 1995. While the Big Red Machine doesn’t have a stealth submarine on hand, the club does hope that the mended Edinson Volquez can be a secret weapon down the stretch. Six starts into his comeback, Volquez is displaying his typical bat-missing ability while understandably showing some rust as well.

The former DVD member scuffled in big cameos with the Texas Rangers from 2005-2007, striking out 6.2 batters per nine innings, walking 4.7 per nine and serving up 1.6 HR/9. His xFIP was 5.34. But he broke out upon being dealt to the Reds (along with Danny Herrera) for Josh Hamilton in December of 2007. Volquez posted a 3.88 xFIP in 196 innings during his first foray in the NL, with 9.46 K/9 and 4.27 BB/9. He got swinging strikes 11% of the time (8.4-8.6% MLB average recently), with a 73.8% contact rate (80-81% MLB average). Edinson’s brilliant work was worth 4.3 wins.

Unfortunately, Volquez would make just nine starts the following year. He wasn’t near the same dominant arm, putting up rates of 8.52 K/9, 5.8 BB/9 and a 4.62 xFIP in 49.2 frames. His swinging strike (10%) and contact (74.8%) figures remained stellar, but he just couldn’t locate. Volquez placed only 41.5% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.3% MLB average that year), compared to 49.6% in 2008 (51.1% MLB average). As a percentage of the big league average, his zone rate went from 97.1 in ’08 to a paltry 84.2 in ’09. Volquez was placed on the DL with lower back spasms in mid-May, but the big blow came after an aborted one-inning start against the Cards on June 1st. He needed Tommy John Surgery, as well as a repair of his flexor mass tendon.

Volquez’s rehab drew national headlines in April, as he was suspended for 50 games after testing positive for Clomid, an estrogen-blocking drug banned by Major League Baseball. Since he was out of action, the suspension cost Volquez cash (a little more than $130,000) but not actual game time. In 31 innings pitched between High-A Lynchburg and Triple-A Louisville, Volquez compiled a 28/8 K/BB ratio and surrendered just five runs.

The 27-year-old got the big league call in mid-July and has tossed 29.2 innings so far. Volquez has struck out over a batter per inning (9.1 K/9), with a 12.3% swinging strike rate and a 69.6% contact rate. But he’s also walking the yard (6.37 BB/9), the result of putting just 36% of his pitches in the zone (46.9% MLB average). That’s 76.8% of the big league average. Overall, his xFIP is 4.69.

While the sample size is small, Volquez has gotten grounders 56% of the time (44.5% prior to this season). Changes in ground ball rate gain some significance at 150 batters faced, so that’s worth watching for a guy making his home starts in a park that inflates HR production by 22 percent for lefty batters and 35 percent for right-handers.

In terms of stuff, Volquez is sitting at a typical 93-94 MPH with his fastball and getting whiffs 9% of the time with the pitch (6% MLB average). It appears as though he has nearly scrapped his slider in favor of a 77 MPH curveball, which is garnering whiffs 15% (11.6% MLB average). Volquez’s low-80’s changeup has a 20.5% whiff rate (12.6% MLB average). Of course, finding home plate has been an issue — the fastball has a 58.7% strike rate (60-62% MLB average), the curve sits at 50.4% (58%) and the change 55.6% (60.7%).

Given that we’re dealing with a month’s worth of starts, it’s best not to put a whole lot of stock in these numbers. But to this point, Volquez has exhibited a power arsenal, if little idea of how to spot his wicked pitches.

Injury info from the Baseball Injury Tool. Pitch F/X whiff and strike numbers from TexasLeaguers.

The options on the wire are dwindling as temperatures hit their peaks. Here’s a pair of pitchers with low ownership rates could help the right team in the right place, though.

Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado (2% owned)
It looked for a second like Esmil Rogers was the one that would replace Aaron Cook, but that is no longer the case. The team just wanted Chacin to build back up the innings, as he had been in the bully for a little while. Chacin just went seven in the minor leagues and will take the next turn in the major league rotation. And, of course, he’s a really good pitcher that is borderline mixed league material. He’s already good – a 3.77 FIP in less than a hundred major league innings, with a nice strikeout rate (9.73 per nine this year) – but he can even be better. His minor league groundball percentage is 60.1%, and was 66.3% in Triple-A this year – so his major league number (44.7%) could easily improve. He also only walked 2.7 per nine in the minor leagues, but that number also creeped up as he advanced, so perhaps his current number (4.15) represents his actual talent level. No matter. If he strikes out a batter per inning and gets half of his balls on the ground, he’ll be a good pitcher. The key is the strikeouts. After only striking out 7.5 per nine over his minor league career, he’s been doing well in the majors. An 11.3% swinging strike percentage is both above average and a good harbinger of future strikeouts, though, so we’re betting on this young Rockies pitcher.

Jordan Zimmermann, Washington DC (2% owned)
Everyone’s been waiting on the other Nationals pitcher to join the big league team, but they are really babying their second ace. Wednesday marked the anniversary of his surgery, but he’s still pitching four innings at a time on his rehab stint. Compare him to Edinson Volquez, who had the surgery 374 days ago and has already made five starts this year. That’s what being competitive will do to you, perhaps. In any case, Zimmermann’s rehab has gone well. Usually it’s the control that comes back last, but he’s put up a 23-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 29.2 innings while rehabbing, which has to bode well. The strikeout rate and walk rate haven’t been quite as stellar at the higher levels of his rehab, but it’s time to see what he can do in the major leagues – or so says a fantasy manager. If he does come up soon, and can put up anything like his strikeout (9.07) and walk (2.86) rates of last year (his minor league numbers seem to suggest he can), he’ll be a good pickup in any league.

Ownership rates provided by Yahoo Fantasy Sports.

One of the biggest surprises of the 2008 season was Edinson Volquez, a pitcher with a ton of potential but one who had gone 3-11 in three previous cups of coffee in the majors. Volquez finished second in the National League in strikeouts (206), third in wins (17) and eighth in ERA (3.21). But a second half fade calls into question his prospects for 2009 and beyond.

After the All-Star break, Volquez had a 4.60 ERA and he allowed nine home runs in 78.1 innings, compared to five homers in 117.2 innings in the season’s first half. For the season, his FB% was 34.1 percent but as we can see from the graph below he allowed many, many more fly balls (the blue line of the chart) after the break in 2008.

Volquez is simply going to give up more fly balls and more homers than he did a season ago. And given that he plays his home games in Great American Ball Park, that’s a bad thing. In the last three years, 56 percent of the home runs hit in games played by the Reds happened at GABP. Volquez gave up just five home runs there in 2008, a mark he’s certain to exceed this season.

With plus pitches with both his fastball and his changeup, Volquez will post excellent strikeout numbers in 2009, but it is unrealistic to expect him to duplicate either his win total or his ERA from a season ago. Last year he had 18 outings in which he gave up two runs or less. Volquez will be lucky to reach half that total in 2009. He is still a solid bet for double-digit wins but his ERA should be closer to 4.00 this year. So, instead of a top-15 starter, Volquez is more likely top 30 in 2009.