Archive for Edinson Volquez

It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

The Kansas City Royals’ rotation lost its staff ace this offseason as James Shields moved on to greener pastures, and by greener, I mean he signed a contract with the San Diego Padres worth $75 million over four years with a 2019 team option. The 33-year old was the only member of the American League pennant winner’s rotation who bested a 3.0 WAR (Shields posted a 3.7 WAR), and one of only two starters to eclipse 200 innings pitched (Jeremy Guthrie was the other). Beyond the absence of Shields, the rest of the rotation is likely to feature four familiar faces, at least to open the year.

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I’m not ashamed to admit that I once had a love affair with Edinson Volquez. He was wild, unfaithful at times, but I was younger then. (That’s how time and the aging process work, as I understand them.) The willingness to live on the edge, the danger he brought, it was part of his allure.

We occasionally reconciled through the years, but for only brief periods. As I matured, I grew to know my boundaries, and too often, Volquez crossed them. Eventually, I understood that he was just no good for me. I taught myself not to answer the phone. Eventually, he stopped calling.

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Edinson Volquez epitomizes the “you can’t teach stuff” sentiment that’s long existed in professional baseball. Pure and simple, his stuff has kept him in the league. After all, he’s started 154 games and thrown 850.0 big-league innings, yet he’s enjoyed just one good season.

That banner season came in 2008, when he went 17-6 and compiled a 3.21 ERA (3.60 FIP). He was a legitimate four-win player and appeared to be on the cusp of a successful career with the Reds. Some even thought he was going to be an ace. After all, he was only 24 years old and was receiving a plethora of media hype for being the guy traded for Josh Hamilton.

Unfortunately for Cincinnati and for fantasy owners, the development into an ace never happened. His career was subsequently derailed by Tommy John surgery in 2009, a 50-game suspension for a positive PED test in 2010, and general ineffectiveness. To put it in perspective, the right-hander has thrown 574.0 innings since his tremendous breakout campaign in 2008 with an unimpressive 4.94 ERA.

Two things regarding that last point, both of which will be addressed in turn: (1) it’s incredible Volquez has continued to find regular work despite a near 5.00 ERA the past five years, and (2) everything was supposed to change coming into the 2012 season when he signed a contract with the San Diego Padres.

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Let’s a give a big round of applause to the idiots at the IOC, shall we? The need to draw more attention and revenue to the Olympics led these buffoons to killing the Games’ integrity by removing the amateur status requirements to participate so they could draw in more professional and marketable athletes. While that may have been fine and dandy for the basketball world, as the NBA season ends in June and the summer Olympics don’t start up until late July, it was an epic fail for baseball as players were asked to leave their MLB teams in the middle of the season to go and compete. MLB complied and allowed players to play, but there were no marquee names headed for the games and in the 2004, the United States didn’t even field a team. Read the rest of this entry »

Today’s Roto Riteup features an inordinate amount of hispanic names.

• Scott Baker is done for the 2012 season after being forced (at gunpoint) to have surgery on his throwing elbow. Baker has never been the most durable starter in the world, but he has been somewhat of an undervalued fantasy asset for the past couple of years. It looks like Liam Hendricks will be getting a chance to stick in the big leagues as a starter, but don’t run out and snag him off the waiver wire. Hendricks’ minor league numbers were pretty good below Triple-A, and the right-hander posted a FIP and SIERA around 4.00 in four starts last season.

• Buster Posey has shingles. In other news, Buster Posey is cursed and will never be allowed to be happy. Posey should be back in a day or two, so don’t be overly concerned about this specific injury. You should be worried about hunting down and killing the witch who cursed him, though.

• It’s early, but Edinson Volquez is doing exactly what fantasy owners should have been hoping for. Volquez is the major league strikeout leader through Tuesday’s action, but his BB/9 is above 5.00 for the fourth season in a row. Volquez isn’t going to be able to keep up a K/9 above 11.0, but he could have one between nine and ten. If he can keep the walks under control, especially on the road, Volquez could once again post an ERA under 4.00.

For those of you who play daily fantasy games like FanGraphs: The Game, or just like to stream players, here are a couple matchups you may be able to exploit.

A Pitcher for Today: None
You could make an argument for Jeff Karstens again the Dodgers or Chris Capuano, who is facing off against him, but I don’t want to put my eggs in their basket.

A Pitcher for Tomorrow: Luke Hochevar (KC) vs CLE
Hochevar is going to be very good this year. Just you watch.

A Hitter for Today: Adam LaRoche (WAS) vs CIN (Bronson Arroyo)
Arroyo likes to give up big time dingers.

Back in 2008, Edinson Volquez shone near as brightly as any young starter in the game. The 24-year-old, acquired from Texas the previous winter for Josh Hamilton, used his low-90s heat and devastating changeup to post a 3.21 ERA and 4.2 Wins Above Replacement in nearly 200 innings. Since then, however, his standing has dimmed considerably. Volquez succumbed to Tommy John surgery in 2009, got slapped with a 50-game PED suspension in 2010 and got lit up and demoted to the minors in 2011. He has been worth just 0.8 WAR over the past three years, with a 5.01 ERA in 221 frames.

It seems odd, then, to suggest that a pitcher coming off three lost seasons could be a bargain in 2012. But Volquez still has strikeout stuff and shouldn’t have near as much of a problem keeping the ball in the park next season as he did in 2011, especially with his move west to Petco as part of San Diego’s haul for Mat Latos. If Volquez can at least show passable control — particularly against lefties — he could provide a nice return on investment in the later rounds on draft day.

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, owners playing in league-specific formats are going to be in for a hard time. When players change leagues, some owners are going to get hosed and some owners are going to get lucky. With all of that in mind, here’s some advice on how to handle a handful of starters who could get dealt.

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Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 7.

Jon Garland – After getting roughed up in his first start of the season, Garland has hurled four straight Quality Starts. One thing especially interesting about Garland this year is his batted ball profile. Typically a ground ball pitcher, Garland set a career-high with a 51.9 GB% last year. After five games in 2011, he has a career-low 36.8 GB%. Yet his HR/9 of 1.13 is essentially his career average. He has a home start against the Brewers and then goes on the road for his first start in U.S. Cellular since leaving the White Sox after the 2007 season. The Brewers are less potent on the road (.609 OPS) than they are at home (.852 OPS) and the White Sox are a below-average offensive team this year, so see if Garland is available in your league to stream this week.

Matt Garza – The overall fantasy numbers (strikeouts excepted) are nothing special for Garza this year but he has been pitching much better than his record shows. His xFIP is two full runs lower than his ERA and his FIP is even better. In his last five games, Garza has four Quality Starts and a 2.90 ERA. The matchups are not overly favorable to Garza this week, with two road starts, including one in an AL park, but he has been pitching well so do not be afraid to put him in your lineup this week.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Fantasy leaguers still consider Jimenez a must-start after last year’s sterling performance. But the truth is that Jimenez has not been good so far in 2011. It looked like he might be finally turning the corner with his start against the Giants in the first week in May but then he failed to get out of the fourth inning last time out against the Mets. His K/9 is better than last season and his BABIP is virtually identical to 2010. But Jimenez has a 6.67 BB/9 and is being victimized by the long ball, with 4 HR in 29.2 IP. He needs a spot on your bench until he shows something more.

Rick Porcello – The beginning of 2011 looked ugly for Porcello, who allowed 10 ER in 10 IP, with 4 BB and 6 Ks. But since then he’s yet to allow more than 2 ER in a start and has a 3.0 K/BB ratio, with 21 Ks in 31.2 IP. His FIP and xFIP are both close to his actual ERA of 3.67. Porcello is throwing more changeups this year but otherwise appears the same pitcher he’s typically been. It’s just that the results are better. With one home start and an Interleague game in Pittsburgh, the matchups are decent enough for him this week, so get him in your lineup.

Edinson Volquez – First off, if you have not already read it, immediately check out Cistulli’s piece on Volquez, which helps explain why a guy with great stuff is getting horrible results. Unfortunately, while there may be some reason for optimism for Volquez, it’s hard to get excited about a guy with a walk rate that high. Combine it with an elevated HR rate and it adds up to a guy who should be on your bench at this point in time.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 7 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

F. Hernandez, Lee, Hanson, Price, Johnson, J. Garcia, Cain, Shields, Marcum, Masterson, G. Gonzalez, Anderson, Burnett, Nolasco, J. Sanchez, D. Hudson, Kuroda, Britton, Lewis, W. Rodriguez, Jackson, Lowe, Baker, Myers, Bailey, Stauffer, Zimmermann, Wolf, Duensing, Drabek, Lackey, Pineiro, Oswalt, Nova, Harrison, Pelfrey, Richard, Matsuzaka, Morton, Niese, Vargas, Westbrook, Coke, Litsch, Chatwood, Maholm, Lannan, Carrasco, Tillman, Galarraga, O’Sullivan, Mazzaro, Coleman, Mortensen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 5 pitchers and how they fared.

Dickey – Advised to start. 4 Ks, 6.23 ERA, 1.539 WHIP, 13 IP, 9 ER
Hernandez – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 7.94 ERA, 2.118 WHIP, 11.1 IP, 10 ER
Jurrjens – Advised to start. 2 W, 6 Ks, 1.93 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 14 IP, 3 ER
Leake – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 17.18 ERA, 2.182 WHIP, 3.2 IP, 7 ER
Tomlin – Advised to sit. 5 Ks, 2.35 ERA, 0.391 WHIP, 7.2 IP, 2 ER

Sporting a triangular scar on the back of his elbow, Edinson Volquez returned to a major league mound last July less than a year after he underwent Tommy John surgery. The righty once swapped from Texas to Cincinnati for Josh Hamilton went on to toss 62.2 regular-season frames, whiffing and walking scores of hitters while also inducing grounders like never before. Drafting Volquez carries risk — the 27-year-old’s innings will be watched, and control has never been his strong suit — but a modest drop in free passes mixed with stellar K and ground ball rates should make Volquez one of the better value picks on draft day.

Volquez’s post-surgery stuff was top-shelf. He got swinging strikes 13 percent of the time, best among starting pitchers throwing at least 60 innings and running circles around the 8.5 percent MLB average. According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Volquez boasted excellent whiff rates with his fastball (averaging between 93-94 MPH), changeup and curveball:

Fastball: 9 Whiff% (5-6% MLB average)
Changeup: 24.4 Whiff% (12.6% MLB average)
Curveball: 11.8 Whiff% (11.6% MLB average)

Volquez also got plenty of earth scorchers: his ground ball rate was 53.9 percent, far above the 44.5 percent clip he managed in the majors prior to 2010. Compared to past years, Volquez threw more curveballs in place of changeups. That breaking ball was beaten into the ground often: Volquez had a 70 percent GB% with his curve (49% MLB average). His fastball (50.5 GB%, 42% MLB average) also helped him wage a ground assault, while his change was league average with a 50 GB%.

Considering that Great American Ballpark punishes fly ball pitchers, inflating home run production 20 percent for lefty hitters compared to a neutral stadium and 33 percent for righty batters, Volquez’s uptick in grounders is a positive. And the sample size is large enough that we can put some stock in the worm burning increase — changes in ground ball rate become reliable rather quickly, after about 150 batters faced (Volquez faced 275 last season). Also helping matters is a strong Cincy infield. Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Scott Rolen are quality defenders, and the rangy Paul Janish looks like the favorite for shortstop starts over Edgar Renteria.

Of course, Volquez’s return wasn’t all roses. Always control-challenged (his career MLB walk rate is near 4.7 per nine), Volquez issued over five free passes per nine innings pitched. He located just 39.7 percent of his pitches within the strike zone, third-lowest among starters with 60+ IP and well below the 46.5 percent MLB average. As TexasLeaguers.com shows, only Volquez’s curve got strikes at an above-average clip:

Fastball: 59.7 Strike% (60-64% MLB average)
Changeup: 59.5 Strike% (60-61% MLB average)
Curveball 58.8 Strike% (58% MLB average)

Volquez isn’t likely to take the bump in 2011 and start showing exquisite control. But it’s not uncommon for post-TJ pitchers to struggle locating their pitches initially as they try to regain proprioception (knowing where the body is in space) and then improve their control the further out they get from surgery. Volquez’s month-by-month splits paint the picture of a pitcher gradually improving his location:

July: 35.5 Zone%
August: 37.0 Zone%
September/October: 45.6 Zone%

For 2011, two of the three big projection systems predict a sub-four ERA for Volquez:

ZiPS: 108 IP, 9.6 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.66 ERA
PECOTA: 134 IP, 8.8 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 3.93 ERA
Oliver: 106 IP, 8.7 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.14 ERA

Drafting Edinson Volquez is a gamble. He’s going to walk people. And he’s not a sure bet to log a full starter’s workload, given that 2011 will be his first full year back from Tommy John and that the Reds have seven or eight legitimate rotation options. But he’s not going to cost a prime pick (MockDraftCentral has his ADP at #74 among starters and #262 overall), and he’s the sort of upside play who can be the difference between winning and losing a league title. Take a chance on Edinson — his punch outs and grounders will make you glad you did.

Below are the results for this week’s ADP Crowdsourcing. If you have any suggestions for next week, leave them in the comments for consideration.

Adam Jones
My vote: 10
Average: 10.05
Median: 10
Standard Dev: 2.91

The votes were pretty clear on this one, and the results didn’t really move much throughout the day. By being taken in the tenth round, it looks like we’re assuming owners are projecting him to hit another four or five homers, with the rest of his numbers staying relatively unchanged. Also, a tenth round projection means he will be around the 30th outfielder taken, making him a third outfielder on most teams or a second outfielder on clubs who focus elsewhere earlier in the draft. Makes sense to me.

Edinson Volquez
My vote: 16
Average: 14.08
Median: 15
Standard Dev: 4.46

There was quite a bit of disagreement about Volquez, and you can see that clearly from the standard deviation of the data set. In fact, as late as Wednesday evening, the average was around 13.5 while the median stayed a 15, showing the pull of some lower outliers on the data. Being picked in the 15th round, that means owners are probably hoping for an ERA around 4.50 with high strikeout numbers and normal wins and WHIP around 1.35. This may be feasible for Volquez, and his ERA could be even lower if everything clicks. At this price, Volquez is going to be worth the risk.

Once again, if you have a suggestion, leave it in the comments for consideration. Tune in next Monday and Wednesday for the next two installments.