Archive for Dustin Pedroia

It’s been almost six weeks since we updated the rankings for second basemen. Oh, in those hallowed days of yore – six weeks hence I lived in New York City, my commute was filled with tourists and teenagers, six-packs cost $12 and every once in a while human feces was something I had to watch out for. Greatest city in the world. On to the second basemen, with to-date wOBA and ZiPs RoS wOBAs included for your pleasure.

The Top Targets:
Robinson Cano, New York AL (.403 wOBA, .373 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Ian Kinsler, Texas (.359 wOBA, .368 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.381 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (.349 wOBA, .339 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Not much to report here, other than perhaps the fact that some would want Cano in his own tier with Utley and Pedroia down and Kinsler showing much less power than he has in the past. It’s not an unreasonable position. However, the other three guys still have 20/20 type skills, and with Cano’s lack of speed, it makes sense to create this tier.

Strong Secondary Options
Dan Uggla, Florida (.383 wOBA, .365 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.375 wOBA, .360 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Kelly Johnson, Arizona (.379 wOBA, .373 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.345 wOBA, .347 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Johnson is enjoying the best power production of his career, and his home park might just have a little to do with it. Just look at his home slugging percentage (.605) compared to his road number (.380). It still evens out to an effective second baseman either way. Zobrist is stealing enough bases and showing just enough power to be useful even in this less-exciting version. He could be a mascot for the tier – a little ugly, but getting the job done.

Will They Ever Get it Together This Year:
Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.377 wOBA, .406 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Chone Figgins, Seattle (.305 wOBA, .327 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.292 wOBA, .356 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Of course the question with Utley is one of health. The latest reports say the splint is off and he hopes to be back before the end of the month, meaning that he could be a sneaky acquisition for a manager looking for a late boost. In head-to-head leagues in particular, Utley is intriguing as a strong addition for a contending team stocking up for the fantasy playoffs. Since the break, Figgins has been hitting .300 and striking out less, so it’s possible the old Figgins is back and we just didn’t notice. Kinda makes him either over-rated or a buy-low candidate depending on how you parse that statement. There’s a whole lot of rust and a really small sample size for Roberts, so he makes the riskiest buy low of the trio.

Pick ‘Em:
Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.346 wOBA, .348 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Martin Prado, Atlanta (.364 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ian Stewart, Colorado (.348 wOBA, .346 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Casey McGehee, Milwaukee (.335 wOBA, .327 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ryan Theriot, Los Angeles (.290 wOBA, .302 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ty Wigginton, Baltimore (.339 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Juan Uribe, San Francisco, (.330 wOBA, .328 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is a pick ’em tier not because they all have the exact same value. In many leagues, these guys are free agents and their value is close to nil. Of course, deeper league owners are happy to have many of them. It’s the fact that each offers production in a category or two that makes them pick ’ems. Need a little bit of pop? Try Wigginton or Uribe if Stewart is not available. Need some speed? It could be worse than The Riot. Need some batting average help? Polanco can help while Prado is out. The flaws are all there, too, though.

Upside to Join the Top:
Gordon Beckham, Chicago (.296 wOBA, .331 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Aaron Hill, Toronto (.305 wOBA, .327 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.317 wOBA, .326 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Ian Desmond, Washington (.302 wOBA, .321 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Technically, this group still has the upside to move upwards. They’ve all had some poor batted ball luck – Hill of course the most extreme (.204 BABIP) – and the regressions to their means might give for a nice stretch or two in the final seven weeks. On the other hand, their flaws are also fairly impressive at this point. Hill hits everything in the air to his detriment (52.1% flyballs, 13.2% popups), Desmond reaches a little too often (34.1%, 17.5% more than average) and could make more contact (79.1%, 2.3% below average), and Kendrick still doesn’t have the power (.141 ISO) or the speed (4.9 Speed Score) to make an impact in the counting categories. Beckham hasn’t been too unlucky with his BABIP, and though he does have the flaws to put him in this group (.117 ISO most prominently), his rookie year still shows his upside and makes his owners wonder which Beckham is the true version. These guys have a sliver of hope between them and the next group down.

Filler:
Carlos Guillen, Detroit (.331 wOBA, .353 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.335 wOBA, .342 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Felipe Lopez, St Louis (.323 wOBA, .316 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Alberto Callaspo, Los Angeles AL (.311 wOBA, .324 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Mike Aviles, Kansas City (.300 wOBA, .304 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

This is a new tier, but the name reveals all. It’s nice to get most of the second basemen in the league listed in one place, so this group has a place. That place is probably not on your fantasy team unless most starters in your league are owned. It’s completely possible that not a single guy among the four will crack double-digits in either home runs or steals, or hit .300.

Here are 10 fantasy hitters who really helped their teams in the month of June

10. Hanley Ramirez .298-4-25-17-9

While none of these numbers jump out at you, Ramirez contributed across the board last month. And those 9 SB were the fourth-highest in MLB. Some might prefer Carl Crawford here, and their months were very similar, but I preferred Ramirez’ 11-RBI edge to Crawford’s 2-SB lead.

9. Brandon Phillips .373-2-7-22-3

Yes, the HR and RBI numbers were nothing to get excited about. But Phillips finished in the top 10 in both AVG and R. And since people think I am too negative about Phillips in general, I thought I would recognize his fine month.

8. Rafael Furcal .362-3-16-21-4

After missing most of May with a strained hamstring, Furcal had an outstanding month in June. While some observers thought his defense suffered, Furcal showed no signs of the hamstring slowing him offensively.

7. Adrian Gonzalez .363-7-23-14-0

He finished in the top 10 in each of the Triple Crown numbers, which made up for the bagel in SB

6. Dustin Pedroia .374-4-16-19-6

His fine month was cut short when Pedroia broke his left foot while fouling a ball off on the 25th. The previous day he had a 5-for-5 game with 3 HR and 5 RBIs.

5. Adrian Beltre .376-7-19-19-0

The difference between fourth and eighth on this list is very small in my opinion. You could make a case for any order and I would not disagree with you.

4. Vladimir Guerrero .356-6-24-22-0

In early June I turned down an offer of Guerrero for Ubaldo Jimenez. Since that team needs offense, I think I might have screwed up.

3. Chris Coghlan .377-3-13-30-2

He led all hitters in runs scored in June and finished fourth in AVG.

2. David Wright .404-6-29-20-4

After posting a 37.1 K% in May, Wright was down to a more manageable 24 percent rate last month. He had a .486 BABIP for the month of June along with a .475 wOBA and a 202 wRC+.

1. Josh Hamilton .454-9-31-23-3

As great as Wright was in June, Hamilton was better. He led MLB in both AVG and RBIs, finished 2nd in HR and 5th in R. He was touted as a buy candidate here in early May and I hope you were able to add him to your team.

Honorable Mention – Crawford, Reyes, Boesch, Sanchez, M. Ramirez

More than a third of the way through the season, let’s see what the list looks like now. To-date wOBA and ZiPs Ros wOBAs included for your pleasure.

The Top Targets:
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.371 wOBA, .401 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
2. Robinson Cano, New York AL (.439 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.354 wOBA, .365 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
4. Ian Kinsler, Texas (.324 wOBA, .363 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

When you’ve been excellent as long as Chase Utley has, you buy yourself more than a couple months of subpar performance before you give up the top spot (or: if this is what a slump looks like, go get me some pomeade). Ian Kinsler doesn’t quite have the same pedigree, has always had the injuries to contend with, and just has to fall behind Dustin Pedroia and Robinson Cano because of the AL East second basemens’ beastly seasons to date. If you’re giving up on Utley now, please contact me with trade offers because I’m buying.

Still Strong:
5. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (.373 wOBA, .352 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
6. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.368 wOBA, .362 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
7. Dan Uggla, Florida (.370 wOBA, .356 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Had to split tiers here because some of the medium-style second basemen are having worse-than-mediocre seasons. it’s a tough position when you can only really be satisfied with the top seven. Of course, the argument will be made for some of the guys below, but these seven are the only guys that combine track record with help in the counting stats and don’t hurt too bad in any one place. The good news for Ben Zobrist fans is that even with less power, he’s going to be a strong middle infielder going forward.

Could Still be Strong:
8. Chone Figgins, Seattle (.296 wOBA, .328 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
9. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.346 wOBA, .345 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
10. Ian Stewart, Colorado (.332 wOBA, .344 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
11. Aaron Hill, Toronto (.296 wOBA, .329 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

These guys are head-scratchers, and there might plenty of moaning about their spots. The thing is, there are glimmers of hope in each case. Chone Figgins is still walking and stealing bases like last year, he’s just striking out a bit much and doesn’t have a nice BABIP like he usually does. His strikeout rate is up almost 5% over his career number and he’s got his second-worst contact rate of his career, but there’s no guarantee that will continue. If he gets hot and ends up with a .280+ average going forward, and finishes like the Dan Uggla of speed at a tough position, he’ll earn this spot. Aaron Hill has a wacky batted ball profile that should get extended coverage soon, but the power is there. If he ends up with Casey McGehee numbers at the end of the year, it’s clear which of the two you want going forward. Rickie Weeks and Ian Stewart will elicit groans from the batting-average lovers, but they do decent work in the counting stats and still could produce mediocre batting averages if they recapture their early-season gains. In a couple weeks, these guys may be re-distributed upwards and downwards (Hill and Stewart, I’m looking in your direction), but I think they merit a little more attention in the meantime.

Flawed but Good:
12. Kelly Johnson, Arizona (.391 wOBA, .373 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
13. Casey McGehee, Milwaukee (.345 wOBA, .324 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
14. Ty Wigginton, Baltimore (.369 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Juan Uribe, San Francisco, (.367 wOBA, .341 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
16. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.346 wOBA, .343 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
17. Martin Prado, Atlanta (.369 wOBA, .352 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
18. Alberto Callaspo, Kansas City (.320 wOBA, .334 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is the tier that holds second basemen that fit needs. If you need power, Kelly Johnson, Ty Wigginton, Juan Uribe and McGehee are your men, but all of them but Uribe (!) have already started to taper off and may yet be replaced in this tier. Our skepticism may have been warranted in McGehee’s case. Martin Prado and Placido Polanco will fit the right batting-average starved team better than many teams on the list above them, but neither is a lock to crack as many as 15 home runs, nor do they have speed. None of the bunch really has the upside to be a complete second baseman (except maybe Uribe?!!).

Upside to Join the Top:
19. Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.254 wOBA, .355 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
20. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.310 wOBA, .329 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
21. Ian Desmond, Washington (.311 wOBA, .324 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
22. Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.362 wOBA, .346 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
23. Mike Aviles, Kansas City (.321 wOBA, .312 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
24. Felipe Lopez, St Louis (.328 wOBA, .314 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
25. Gordon Beckham, Chicago (.253 wOBA, .328 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
26. Jose Lopez, Seattle (.254 wOBA, .306 ZiPs Ros wOBA)

Brian Roberts continues his long, painful slide and may not be back for another month or two, so it’s hard to place him anywhere but here. Falling along with him are Gordon Beckham and Jose Lopez. When a .597 OPS is ‘picking it up in June,’ it’s hard to be optimistic about Beckham. I still think he’ll get it going, but when is the question, and he’s surely not ownable in the meantime unless you are just stuck with him in a deep league. Repeat that all with a .596 OPS for Lopez, and probably less upside. Ian Desmond and Mike Aviles debut on the list, and have some upside, but Aviles is older than you think, has no power or speed, and Desmond is Kendrick-lite because he has the same lack of counting stats but about half the batting average upside.

This update will have to-date wOBA with RoS projections, too!

The Top Targets:
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.445 wOBA, .414 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
2. Ian Kinsler, Texas (.310 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.380 wOBA, .368 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
4. Robinson Cano, New York AL (.459 wOBA, .362 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Nothing to report here, other than an ongoing battle to determine the best real-life young second baseman in the American League, with Boston and New York in distinct camps. It seems that once you include defense the battle shifts north slightly but significantly. For our purposes, it’s nice to note Cano’s strong batted ball profile and career-high flyball percentage, which should both serve him well this year.

The Middling Veterans:
5. Chone Figgins, Seattle (.295 wOBA, .336 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
6. Dan Uggla, Florida (.383 wOBA, .356 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
7. Ian Stewart, Colorado (.384 wOBA, .347 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
8. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (.326 wOBA, .342 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
9. Aaron Hill, Toronto (.327 wOBA, .337 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
10. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.317 wOBA, .351 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
11. Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.255 wOBA, .359 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

There’s some movement here because Roberts is still out and Zobrist is still swinging a limp noodle. Hill lost some ISO too, but he could still put up 2007 stats and be very helpful at this position. The biggest news is the debut of Ian Stewart in this tier. Stewart cut the K’s without losing the power, which means he could have a nicer batting average this year. Since the power and speed are tantalizing, he’s the real streaking youth on this list.

Streaking Youth:
12. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.369 wOBA, .352 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
13. Kelly Johnson, Arizona (.433 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
14. Gordon Beckham, Chicago (.280 wOBA, .339 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Look at what we have here. Kelly Johnson actually bests Ian Stewart by jumping two tiers and streaking right into the upside tier. If he had some speed he might even blow by Weeks, who is doing his customary batting average slump currently but still has his power and speed combo to boast of. Beckham is in danger of dropping out of this tier right here, because he is pressing and striking out too often and just doesn’t look great at the plate right now.

The Leftovers:
14. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.327 wOBA, .340 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
15. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.300 wOBA, .337 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
16. Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.353 wOBA, .343 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Call this the no-power no-speed tier. These guys really should have Martin Prado in here too. Not sure what else to say, really, except that Polanco has a healthy offense around him that boosts his value.

Upside to Join the Top:
17. Casey McGehee, Milwaukee (.392 wOBA, .328 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
18. Martin Prado, Atlanta (.371 wOBA, .349 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
19. Alberto Callaspo, Kansas City (.361 wOBA, .340 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
20. Jose Lopez, Seattle (.237 wOBA, .312 ZiPs Ros wOBA)
21. Ty Wigginton, Baltimore (.432 wOBA, .357 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
22. Chris Getz, Kansas City (.237 wOBA, .316 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Once your season-long power slump is bad enough that it starts affecting your ZiPs RoS projections, it has to be noted. Jose Lopez isn’t even projected to put up his career ISO the rest of the way, so it’s looking like it might be a bad year for him. Because he’s shown more power in the past than Callaspo, he will probably outperform Callaspo… probably. At least the Royals showed confidence in Callaspo by demoting Alex Gordon. (That’s what they were doing, right?) I also know at least one commenter that will be happy to see Chris Getz on this list, and with 2% ownership in Yahoo, he might still be out there for the taking. He could still best his .275/20 SB projections because most of his slump so far looks BABIP-induced.

Time to update the second basemen, using Fans’ projected wOBAs for another week. Huzzah!

The Top Targets:
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.402 wOBA)
2. Ian Kinsler, Texas (.358 wOBA)
3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.360 wOBA)
4. Robinson Cano, New York AL (.370 wOBA)

Not too much to say here really, though it seems that Dustin Pedroia and Robinson Cano have probably moved past Brian Roberts for good by proving, at the very least, that they have not yet peaked. Roberts’ back issues may affect him all year long and dampen his speed, and the younger two guys are showing sweet power right now.

The Middling Veterans:
5. Chone Figgins, Seattle (.347 wOBA)
6. Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.356 wOBA)
7. Dan Uggla, Florida (.354 wOBA)
8. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.408 wOBA)
9. Aaron Hill, Toronto (.357 wOBA)
10. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (.337 wOBA)

To be honest, it’s hard not to continue dropping Roberts further, but at least he’s in the right tier now. Chone Figgins has had bigger steals years more recently than him and belongs ahead of him anyway. In this week’s edition of Small Sample Size Surprises, Dan Uggla has maintained his overall power while striking out and walking about at about half of his 2009 rates. The most worrisome thing about Ben Zobrist’s poor start is his reduced walk rate, but even if the power regresses from last year’s probable peak, he’ll retain good value at shortstop.

Streaking Youth:
11. Gordon Beckham, Chicago (.361 wOBA)
12. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.365 wOBA)
13. Ian Stewart, Colorado (.337 wOBA)

Gordon Beckham isn’t exactly streaking to the fore, but he’s still got the upside to move up the list. In the early going, he’s striking out and walking at almost the exact same rate as last year, but reduced power and a poor BABIP are holding him down. ZiPS RoS is still optimistic though. Rickie Weeks looks like he may be in the midst of a career year. While it’s early going, and his BABIP is unsustainable, there’s a lot to like in Weeks this year – he’s combining his best walk rate with his best strikeout rate and his highest ISO, but all three numbers are close to his career norms. Seems organic. The same can be said about Ian Stewart – his current career-best K% is closer to his minor league number than one might expect after last year’s whiffing. His bat is showing light-tower power at this point, too. All three of these guys have a great shot of outperforming the Middling Veterans.

The Leftovers:
14. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.321 wOBA)
15. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.341 wOBA)
16. Jose Lopez, Seattle (.325 wOBA)
17. Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.342 wOBA)

This group is pretty meh. Polanco looks to be enjoying the new park, but who knows how many home runs that will translate into. He’s a good contributor in runs and RBI though. Howie Kendrick is doing what we thought he could, but it’s still not going to mean a lot of home runs or steals.

Upside to Join the Top:
18. Casey McGehee, Milwaukee (.330 wOBA)
19. Martin Prado, Atlanta (.341 wOBA)
20. Kelly Johnson, Arizona (.338 wOBA)
21. Alberto Callaspo, Kansas City (.347 wOBA)
22. Ty Wigginton, Baltimore (.332 wOBA)

Casey McGehee probably deserves a post of his own, but there are still reasons for skepticism. That he’s showing this level of power for a prolonged period of time is, to say the least, unexpected. Kelly Johnson is showing that his poor 2009 was mostly poor BABIP-driven and is enjoying his new team. Alberto Callaspo is disappearing off of waiver wires currently, but Ty Wigginton that also deserves some attention. He’s got a little pop and everyday at-bats right now and is a great short-term add.

A while back, we checked the position at second base and outlined some tiers that should help you choose between options in your draft. Unfortunately, this position doesn’t produce ADP values as cleanly as some other positions (and we like our values clean).

Take the first two tiers, for example. It would be nice to pick the lowest-drafted second baseman in the first two tiers, Brian Roberts (40.69 ADP), and just declare him the value of the two tiers. The problem is that Roberts has too many question marks to get the (grade A) stamp of approval as a value. For instance, though his ISO was a second-best last year (.168), and it seems to have grown organically (three straight increases), that ISO has famously peaked before (.201 in his 18-home-run 2005 season) and then returned back towards the baseline (.137). He’s 32 and his stolen bases have declined for two straight seasons. Then again, 2008 produced his career-best full-season speed score (7.3), and that wasn’t so long ago. The point is, counting on his for anything more than 12 or so home runs and 30 or so stolen bases probably isn’t a good idea, and those numbers seem a little light for the third round. On the other hand, Dustin Pedroia (37.48 ADP) goes three picks earlier and isn’t going to hit that stolen base number and may only out-homer Roberts by a handful. Maybe Roberts is the actual value here.

There is a lot of questionable power in the next tier. Aaron Hill (46.87 ADP), Robinson Cano (45.83 ADP) and Jose Lopez (123.97 ADP) all had power spikes last year, and their draft positions show the confidence the general public has that the different players will return with good power in 2010. Once again, it’s tempting to take Lopez with the lowest ADP and call him the value – and there are some reasons to believe the power will stick. His ISO, fly ball, and HR/FB rates have all steadily risen over the last three years. The problem is that, with his walk rate (3.7% career), his value is tied up in that power, and his career ISO (.141) is still low enough that it is hard to count on. Why not take Dan Uggla (85.10) a couple rounds earlier so that you can depend on his power (.225 career ISO)? Here it seems that Uggla is the real value in the tier.

The final tier is a rag-tag group, as Asdrubal Cabrera (158.18) and Howie Kendrick (146.64) leading the way, though neither is a lock to hit 15 home runs or stolen bases next year. They’ll have to hit a lot of singles to make up for their shortcomings in those two important fantasy categories. Again here, Clint Barmes (307.61) and Adam Kennedy (327.96) bring up the rear but have too many questions to tout as the values of the tier. Barmes doesn’t walk (4.3%), strikes out a fair amount (22% last year), and though he showed power last year (.195 ISO), his career power is less exciting (.157). He’s also done a lot of jumping around in the power department, and last year may have just defined his upside anyway. Kennedy had a nice year, but despite his 20 stolen bases last year, his speed score was actually below-average. He doesn’t really have a single skill you can count on.

If you’re going to take a plunge, why not take one on Rickie Weeks (212.37 ADP)? Yes, it will cost a healthier pick than Barmes, but we’re still talking about a 19th-round pick in mixed league drafts. His ISO has jumped around some too (.125 – .245), but it’s been trending upwards in a general way. There’s still the upside that he might finally put together one of his better strikeout rates (say, 2008’s 24.2%) with one of his better walk rates (11.8% in 2008) and BABIPs (.313 last year) and get his batting average up past the .250s. We know he has power and speed, and an okay batting average would make him a valuable second baseman, especially in head-to-head leagues. That he might be the value of the final tier should serve as a positional scarcity warning for the position, too.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops and catchers.)

Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place.

Chase Utley is in a tier of his own. No other second baseman has been able to combine the power and speed and batting average year-in and year-out like the pomade Phillie infielder. Ian Kinsler and Brandon Phillips are missing the batting average and the health, Dustin Pedroia and Brian Roberts are missing the power. That said, these top five second basemen are all reasonably stable players that boast good speed along with varying degrees of power. They just don’t all have the total package like Utley.

The next tier should be the controversial one. While Aaron Hill’s season was one for the ages, there are understandably some doubts about his ability to repeat. He more than doubled his previous career-high HR/FB percentage without really showing a corresponding change in his approach. The most likely scenario is that Hill settles in with similar power to fellow tier-member Robinson Cano. Cano would be higher but since he’s shown that his batting average seems so tied to his BABIP, there’s some rightful nervousness about his ability to repeat his own career year. Dan Uggla and Jose Lopez have similar power and similar batting average issues. Pick the right player during a good BABIP year, and you’ll have a great second baseman with a decent batting average and lots of power. Get the guy in a bad year, and you’ve seen what can happen.

The last tier holds the most risk, as it should be. There are many Asdrubal Cabrera fans, and his double eligibility will get him drafted at one of the keystone positions. The problem is that the speed is somewhat borderline (21/29 in 1000+ at bats) and the power is negligible. Clint Barmes may not succeed on a good percentage of his attempts, and he’s a much more flawed real-life player, but he’s reached heights in power and speed that Cabrera may never. Adam Kennedy had a great year and ended up right around where he was five years ago, a second basemen that can hit double-digit home runs, steal about 20 bags, and hit close to .300. It’s not the same upside as the rest of the guys in the tier, but it seems repeatable. Howie Kendrick and Rickie Weeks probably have the most upside of the tier, but they are quickly running out chances in the minds of fantasy managers. Both made strides in their limited time last year and make for good bench plays in mixed league drafts for managers that got a third- or fourth-tier second baseman as their starter.

Overall, the position seems pretty deep, with empty-batting-average guys numbering #15-18 as backup plans. Once Utley goes, managers might be best served waiting for a second baseman to drop, knowing that they can probably take a shot on a young guy with some upside once the top 12 are gone.

The earlier a fantasy owner can pull off a good trade the better, as the longer he will have the undervalued players on his roster. It is not uncommon for leagues to have owners with itchy trigger fingers, so it is never too soon to examine players to acquire or deal. While some owners are more likely to hold on to underperforming veterans, there are just as many who are looking to acquire the next big rookie. So here are five guys to pick up and five players to move.

Acquire

Jimmy Rollins – A notoriously streaky hitter, Rollins is hitting just .121 with no HR and no SB in seven games. He does not have to be 2007 MVP good to justify giving up something worthwhile to acquire him when his value may be down.

Chris Davis – Everyone’s favorite sleeper during mock draft season, Davis has a .154 average with one HR. He has hit in every stop along the way to the majors and is still the same guy who hit .285 in Texas last year. Davis will not have a 42 percent K rate all year.

Dustin Pedroia – He has just a .179 average thanks to a .160 BABIP. Three of his five hits have gone for extra bases and he has three walks compared to two strikeouts.

Gil Meche – An undervalued pitcher to begin with, Meche is winless in his first two starts. But 12 strikeouts in 14 IP with a 6:1 SO/BB ratio is indicative of how well he has pitched. And Meche’s two starts were in Chicago and versus the Yankees, so a 3.12 ERA is very good.

Dan Haren – After a 16-win season in 2008, Haren opened 2009 with an 0-2 mark. All of his other numbers are good so owners will likely be hesitant to give him up, but it may be possible to find someone who drafted him high based on other’s assessments of him who may be having doubts.

Dump

Emilio Bonifacio – Yeah, it is fun having him on your team only to say his name but his value will never be higher. And despite his current .714 SLG he is not going to hit for power and he will have to hit better than the .268 that his top pre-season projection had him going for to be a worthwhile fantasy player.

Kyle Lohse – A perfect 2-0 record with a 0.56 WHIP has been posted versus Houston and Pittsburgh, contenders for worst teams in baseball. Also, both of these games came at home, where Lohse was 8-2 with an ERA over a full run lower than it was on the road in 2008.

Adam Lind – The main problem with Lind is that he has no plate discipline. And even in this great hot streak to start the season, he has six strikeouts and one walk in 35 at-bats. Trade him while those 12 RBIs are among the league leaders.

Nyjer Morgan – No one doubts the SB potential but at the same time, no one doubts the complete lack of power, either. Morgan needs to get on base more and he still shows no propensity to take a walk. While he’s likely to post a high BABIP it simply will not be of the .444 variety where it currently stands.

Joe Saunders – Last year Saunders surprised everyone by posting 17 wins. But he had a FIP nearly a full run higher than his ERA, the fourth-worst mark in the majors. So far he has a win and a 2.63 ERA in two starts, but his FIP is more than two runs higher and his strikeout and walk numbers are still nothing to write home about.

Fans and athletes alike enjoy playing the “no one believed” card. Most of the time it’s garbage but in the case of Dustin Pedroia perhaps there’s something there. Fans and analysts have been looking for reasons to doubt him for years and Pedroia just keeps exceeding all expectations.

In 2005, Pedroia tore up Double-A (.324/.409/.508) but struggled when he was promoted to Triple-A. Rather than recognize that he played the end of the season with a wrist injury, people doubted. In 2006, Pedroia played well in Triple-A (.305/.384/.426) but hit under .200 in 81 at-bats for Boston. So the doubts lingered.

So, in 2007 Pedroia puts up a .317/.380/.442 line in the majors and wins the Rookie of the Year. Then for an encore, he goes out and puts up a .326/.376/.493 line and wins the AL MVP. Surely now, everyone must be convinced that this is a player who makes adjustments and adapts to the level of his competition, right?

Our own Matthew Carruth wrote about Pedroia, “Even with the regression that should come on his bat next year…”

Now, Matthew is a lot smarter than me. And if someone as accomplished as he thinks that Pedroia will regress noticeably in 2009, that is a pretty good indication of where smart money is on this subject.

To buttress Matthew’s position, according to the RotoTimes Player Rater, Pedroia was the 12th-best fantasy hitter last year, putting up a dollar value of $31.68 in 2008. In other words, there’s not much room for continued improvement.

But none of Pedroia’s peripherals seem to be outrageous. Yes, he made a 42-point jump in his isolated slugging but his .167 mark ranked 85th in the majors. Yes, he more than doubled his HR output but neither his FB% (36 percent) nor his HR/FB (7.8 percent) are anywhere close to putting him on the first page of the FanGraph’s Leaderboards. Yes, Pedroia had a .336 BABIP last year but he had a .334 mark in the category the year before.

We make snap judgments about people all of the time. It’s one of the ways we make sense of the world. Pedroia is listed here as 5-foot-9 and he appears even smaller in person. He plays hard. We see small, white and scrappy and our snap judgment is that Pedroia should be like David Eckstein, he of the lifetime .361 slugging percentage.

Because few complained or predicted regression when 6-foot-1 Chase Utley upped his ISO 47 points from .202 to .249, did they? Utley’s a big guy and no one is surprised when a big guy displays power. Plus Utley did this going from age 25 to 26, when improvement is a reasonable thing to expect.

Pedroia had his ISO leap from age 23 to 24.

Anyway, a lot of things went right for Pedroia last year and it would not be a surprise to see a drop in last year’s numbers. At the very least, he could pull an Ian Kinsler and come down with an injury and miss 35 games. But what player who has only been in the majors for two seasons could we not say that about?

This could be the last year to get Pedroia at a bargain. That is because if he puts up a season like 2008 again, everyone will see it as a trend and not a fluke and act accordingly in the future. The bottom line is Pedroia is a great baseball player and someone you want on your fantasy team.