Archive for drew storen

As much joy as the game of fantasy baseball brings to most of us, it can also bring an enormous amount of frustration and anxiety.  They say you shouldn’t keep that sort of stuff bottled up inside you, unless, of course, you enjoy the taste of bile and all the other stomach acids that a bleeding ulcer provides.  You need to get it out.  But what are you going to do, bitch to your girlfriend?  Try to gain sympathy from your fellow owners?  Doubtful.   Her level of care is reciprocal to your level of interest in her best friend’s latest relationship disaster and deep down, your fellow owners are wishing this kind of stuff on you. Read the rest of this entry »

On Thursday, Mike rolled out our long list of reliever rankings which included many familiar names from seasons past, some of them dating back to the 90’s.  But there are some new arms vying for the fireman role this season and some of them have tremendous promise.

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All this week, I’ve been looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some relief pitchers.

David Aardsma
Everyone expected Aardsma to regress this year, and his ADP reflected it. While he did do some regressing, he still has quite a bit in front of him. He gave up less fly balls this year, yet his BABIP dropped even lower. He still saved owners 31 games, but he didn’t even come close to touching last year’s value.
Crude 2011 Projection: 3.60 ERA, 5 saves, 8.5 K/9, 4.3 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. The reduced number of saves is because I think he’ll be traded by the Mariners shortly after the offseason begins.

Matt Capps
The Nationals made a great decision this offseason, bringing Matt Capps in to be their closer. They ended up getting a solid prospect for him, and the Twins will be relying on him during this postseason. With Joe Nathan coming back, will the Twins send Capps packing, or will they keep him as insurance?
Crude 2011 Projection: 2.85 ERA, 10 saves, 7.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. While he’s a good pitcher, he’s not guarenteed to get saves next year. Play a wait and see approach with all of the Twins’ relievers.

Jonathan Broxton
Broxton was completely dominant during the first half of the year. He didn’t give up an earned run in April, and had a FIP of 0.19 during that month. 0.19! Something happened in the second half, though, and Broxton began to walk too many batters. The Dodgers lost all confidence in him, and he lost his job as the closer.
Crude 2011 Projection: 2.75 ERA, 30 saves, 11.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I don’t think he’ll slip in drafts, and he should be an elite player next season.

Daniel Bard
Bard didn’t pitch quite as well as expected, but he still did pretty well for himself. His value will all come down to Papelbon. Will he stay or will he go?
Crude 2011 Projection: 2.60 ERA, 27 saves, 9.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I think Papelbon gets traded, but the Red Sox bring in a veteran or two to keep Bard on his toes.

Drew Storen
As soon as he was drafted, Storen was labeled the Nationals “closer of the future.” The Nationals had him put his work in for the minor league affiliates, and then gave him some chances once Matt Capps was traded. With a full season in the organization under his belt, will the Nationals turn over the ball to Storen in the ninth inning?
Crude 2011 Projection: 3.33 ERA, 20 saves, 9.0 K/9, 3.5 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. Like Bard, I think he becomes the closer but loses some opps to a veteran presence.

If you have a relief pitcher you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

The Washington Nationals organization announced today that top 2009 draft picks Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen will both begin the year in double-A. Strasburg is considered the future face of the organization (if he isn’t already) and a sure-fire No. 1 starter, while Storen is considered the club’s closer of the future.

So what does this news mean to fantasy baseball managers?

Most importantly, it means that you’re going to have to be patient. The former San Diego State hurler was the club’s most dominating starter this spring but it was a smart decision from a business perspective, as well as a player development angle. Why rush him? The club is not going to win in 2010… so it’s going to try to keep him around (and cost controlled) for as long as possible.

From a fan perspective, it means more pitching mediocrity for the Nationals rotation. The motley crew is likely to include Garrett Mock, John Lannan, Jason Marquis, Scott Olsen, and J.D. Martin. There are a couple of names there for deep NL-only leagues, but the pickings are slim in mixed leagues.

Strasburg is probably not going to be in the minors long, based on how he looked this spring (and in the Arizona Fall League). He’ll likely be up by June at the latest, which means you need to keep yourself in a favorable waiver situation in your league for when the inevitable call comes. Once he’s up, Strasburg could very well pitch at the level of a Top 15 starter. He could be the exact type of waiver wire player that helps push a fantasy team over the hump in the second half of the season. The one downside to keep in mind, though, is that he’s playing for the Nationals (and the club is likely to monitor his innings) so the wins could be hard to come by.

As for Storen, young closers are quite volatile. They tend to burn out quickly. I also have some concerns over the right-hander’s current lack control issues (three walks in five spring innings, 4.38 BB/9 in 10 double-A games in ’09) so he may not be a reliable closer option for another few seasons. In the meantime, fantasy managers in need of saves will want to keep an eye on Matt Capps and Brian Bruney in Washington. Capps is the early favorite for saves, but he’s struggled this spring. On a team that does not project to score a lot of runs, the eventual closer could have plenty of save opportunities when the club takes a lead into the ninth inning.

The Arizona Fall League, Major League Baseball’s additional development league for prospects, is starting to wind down for 2009. Let’s have a look at some of the key prospects currently playing in the league.

Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs’ shortstop prospect is looking to make MLB incumbent Ryan Theriot nervous about his job security. The truth of the matter is that Castro currently projects to post similar numbers to that of Mr. Theriot. However, Castro has the edge defensively, so that could cause a shift to second base for the veteran infielder, which would then make Mike Fontenot expendable… perhaps after one more season.

In ’09, Castro hit .302/.340/.391 in high-A, where he spent the majority of the season. He also received a 31-game trial at double-A and held his own as a 19-year-old infielder by hitting .288/.347/.396. He stole 22 bases in 33 attempts in high-A – showing he needs to continue working on his base running skills – but he was perfect in six tries in double-A.

Still very young and developing, Castro looks capable of providing a .280-300 average, five to 10 homers and 20-30 steals in his prime. He’ll likely never be a run producer, and he’ll need to show a little more patience (5.0 BB% in high-A) to score a lot of runs at the top of the order. ETA: Mid-2011

Jose Tabata, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
This former Yankees prospect has found a new lease on life in the Pirates organization. Tabata had a solid season in his first year in the organization… despite a rough start with some off-field controversy. Still just (supposedly) 21, Tabata began the year in double-A and hit .303/.370/.404 with and ISO of just .101 in 228 at-bats. Moved up to triple-A, the outfielder hit .276/.333/.410 in 134 at-bats. He did bump his ISO up to .134 and his strikeout rate remained good at 13.4%.

Unfortunately, Tabata was successful stealing bases in just 11 out 19 attempts. He’s never been a great base runner and his lower half continues to thicken up so we’re not likely to see a lot of steals in the future. This is a bad thing if Tabata’s power fails to develop, because it’s below-average for a corner outfielder (His likely destination in the Majors because he projects to lose range in center field). He has just one homer in 101 AFL at-bats. ETA: Mid-2010

Jonathan Gaston, OF, Houston Astros
Gaston may have excited more than a few fantasy-league managers in 2009 when he hit 35 homers (An out-of-this-world .320 ISO) and showed speed by stealing 14 bases and legging out 15 triples. He also hit 100 RBI and scored 119 runs, all of which would make him an extremely valuable fantasy prospect. However, he was playing in one of the best hitters’ parks in baseball and he posted a strikeout rate of 31.7 K%.

Now, many fantasy leagues won’t penalize you for strikeouts, but they will negatively impact his batting average, which was .278 in high-A ball. During the regular season, Gaston had two very hot months (May and June) when he hit for average, but he hit below .250 in April, July and August. The left-handed hitter is currently batting .111 against southpaws in the AFL in a small-sample size, but he also struggled against them in the regular season: .228/.335/.443 (.373 BABIP). Key an eye on Gaston, but don’t get too excited just yet; the 2010 season will be a big one for the Astros prospect. ETA: Mid-to-late 2011

Drew Storen, RHP, Washington Nationals
When an organization has Mike MacDougal as its closer, you know management is praying for something better to come along. Storen, a first-round draft pick from ’09, is currently rocketing through the minors and is on a collision course with the Nationals’ closer role, perhaps sooner rather than later. In ’09, he held batters to a .162 batting average while posting a strikeout rate of 11.61 K/9. He also showed solid control with a walk rate of 1.89 (although it slipped later on in the year as he tired).

Even though he posted a solid HR/9 rate of 0.47, Storen is a flyball pitcher (32.6 GB%) so he could end up being a little homer prone in the Majors. He held right-handed batters to a .111 batting average, but he was aided by a ridiculous .158 BABIP. As a fastball-slider pitcher, he may need to find a weapon to combat good left-handed hitters if he’s going to develop into an impact closer. ETA: Mid-2010