Archive for Diamondbacks

Is Zack Greinke Always Safe to Start?

I had some trouble figuring out whether to start Zack Greinke in my Ottoneu league tonight. By the merits of his fantasy stats, it should be an easy call. Greinke is the 10th-ranked starting pitcher in the format, and while his strikeout rate (24.4 percent) is merely decent, he racks up enough innings to compensate for that. With a .309 team wOBA against righties, the Nationals don’t rank as a particularly fearsome matchup, but with Greinke qualifying as a fantasy ace, the Diamondbacks’ opponent probably doesn’t factor into many owners’ decisions.

Yet in a game where the frequency of swinging strikes is critical to a player’s value — whether it’s a pitcher or hitter — it’s hard to ignore Greinke’s downward-trending SwStr%. It fell from 12.4 percent in 2017 to 10.8 percent in 2018, and while he has rebounded from similar drops before, this year it stands at just 9.3 percent. Digging a little deeper, the increase in contact is happening mostly on his pitches outside of the strike zone. Greinke’s 84.7 percent Z-Contact% is 1.3 percentage points above last season’s mark and o.1 percentage point below the major league median. While that’s not especially encouraging, it’s Greinke’s 73.7 percent O-Contact% that is truly concerning. It’s far worse than the median O-Contact% of 62.2 percent and six points higher than his rate from 2018.
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Bullpen Report: May 4, 2019

May the fourth be with you, and the force be strong in the unyielding chase for saves. During a game with twists and turns in the win probabilities, the Giants outlasted the Reds despite trailing by eight runs at the end of the third inning. Raisel Iglesias incurred his second blown save giving up a game tying home run to Stephen Vogt in the top of the ninth inning. It’s been a tumultuous season for Iglesias, who seemed to be turning the corner of late, but he’s been asked to record more than three outs in three of his last four outings and five times of his 14 outings this season.

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Bullpen Report: March 30, 2019

A somewhat wild Friday evening will leave some fantasy owners sleepless about Seattle. Hunter Strickland will undergo an MRI on Saturday after experiencing tightness in the back of his shoulder. It could be inflammation, but resulted in Strickland blowing his first save of the year after convincing his manager to leave him in. Strickland allowed two hits, including a three-run home run to Mitch Moreland, and a walk in one-third of an inning. Roenis Elias finished the ninth inning getting a strikeout versus the two hitters he faced. If Strickland does land on the injured list, this could signal a committee approach in Seattle until Anthony Swarzak returns.

Hard to say which right-handed reliever will emerge, but Matt Festa or Cory Gearrin could get save chances along with either Zac Rosscup or Elias if facing a left-handed lean in the final stanza. Plan accordingly. Read the rest of this entry »


Is Greg Holland Really Doomed As A Closer?

I came here to defend Greg Holland. But before I do, I want to talk a little about Mark Melancon.

The year was 2015. Melancon’s velocity was down, both on his four-seamer and cutter, through the first two months, but he started to overcome a rough start to the season (.292 Avg allowed through May 15) in the latter part of May. Then his velocity rebounded closer to his 2014 levels over the season’s final four months.
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Will Becoming a Dodger Change A.J. Pollock?

A.J. Pollock is going to be a tough player to project for this season. For the purposes of forecasting, we like our hitters to have consistent skill sets, and when healthy, Pollock had been that sort of player. In 2018, he made several changes, though they were ones we have seen many hitters make in recent years. For his swan song with the Diamondbacks, Pollock hit more flyballs and became pull-heavier. He also became much more aggressive, increasing his Swing% from 42.3 percent to a career-high 48.1 percent. This, in combination, with a higher whiff rate, gave Pollock his highest-ever strikeout rate (21.7 percent) and lowest Avg (.257) for a season with at least 200 plate appearances.
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Fantasy Relievers on Non-Contenders: Diamondbacks

Unlike the first two subjects of this series, the Marlins and Orioles, the Diamondbacks were contenders in 2018, at least until they went 8-19 in September. Now with Paul Goldschmidt and Patrick Corbin gone — and with A.J. Pollock presumably signing with another team — it’s hard to see them keeping pace with the Dodgers and Rockies.

That means the Diamondbacks could look to deal relievers at some point in 2019, making them one of those annoying teams with persistently fluid bullpen situations. Torey Lovullo has indicated that he is inclined to give Archie Bradley the first shot at being the team’s closer, though he also hinted that he may be quicker to make a change in roles if his closer struggles. Bradley had a difficult second half of 2018, compiling a 6.58 ERA and 1.54 WHIP, so even if the Diamondbacks are surprise contenders, there is no reason to think that he would be immune to losing the closer’s job if he actually won it coming out of spring training.
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2EarlyMock Observations: Potential Middle-Round Bargains for 2019

In most drafts, I hit a point where I look at my queue and the remaining player pool, and I’m not excited about any of my options. I am currently participating in one of Justin Mason’s 2EarlyMock drafts, and as we enter the final rounds, I have yet to have that feeling. A number of players went in the middle rounds whom I had stashed in my queue several rounds before they were taken. The ones that I drafted felt like tremendous bargains, and the ones that I missed left me envious.
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Bullpen Report: September 15, 2018

Representing one of the most frustrating bullpens over the last month, could the White Sox situation finally be settling in? This coincides with the return of Nate Jones from the disabled list who recorded his first save since May 22nd on Friday night. Jones allowed a hit with two strikeouts during his second outing back this month and, dare speculate, should be the primary closer going forward. Jace Fry secured his 15th hold walking one and striking out one in the eighth inning while Ian Hamilton yielded a run (unearned) on a hit and a walk with a strikeout en route to his first hold in a two-thirds of an inning appearance in the seventh inning. This bridge continues to evolve, but fantasy owners may be able to take solace in this blueprint over the last two weeks when Chicago owns a lead.

While one bullpen in Chicago takes shape, the other returns to fluidity with Pedro Strop out for the remainder of the regular season. Fantasy owners should not overreact regarding Jose De Le Rosa’s save last night. He did get his first this year working around a double and a walk in Cincinnati. However, all of Jesse Chavez, Steve Cishek and Carl Edwards Jr. pitched in the two prior games making them unavailable in this game. Also, those who think Justin Wilson could figure in the save mix may wish to reconsider since he was passed over for Jamie Garcia. Garcia faced Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez and Scooter Gennett in the eighth inning retiring them in order for his fourth hold. Wilson could have appeared in this game due to usage, so its worth noting. As for future saves while Brandon Morrow looks to complete a bullpen session later this afternoon, look for Chavez and Cishek to take the lead but nothing’s guaranteed. Chavez has been terrific as the Cubs pliable reliever with two wins, three saves, a 1.45 ERA, 2.61 FIP, 0.87 WHIP and 34 strikeouts against four walks in 31 innings since his acquisition. Stay tuned. Read the rest of this entry »


Bullpen Report: September 13, 2018

With Hurricane Florence nearing landfall, please be safe if in its path. Bullpens continue to be volatile as the season approaches the final 16 games for most teams. Some good news regarding the return of injured relievers Aroldis Chapman and Brandon Morrow could cheer up their owners, but in varying degrees. Chapman threw an encouraging side session according to reports detailed in this article by Bryan Hoch. With the Yankees heading home, Chapman will meet the team to throw another side session and the simulated game hoping to return to action next week. This would allow the Yankees to reset their bullpen hierarchy and return Dellin Betances to the eighth inning where he dominates. Stay tuned. As for Morrow, he threw 35 pitches in a bullpen session and details it in this video courtesy of Jessie Rogers. Given the delay in Morrow’s return along with how well Pedro Strop’s pitched, there’s no guarantee Morrow would return to the ninth inning if he makes it back.

One day after recording his first major league save, Yoshihisa Hirano allowed a two-run walk-off home run to D.J. LeMahieu. Baseball’s an unforgiving game. This snapped Hirano’s eight game scoreless streak and became the first earned runs he’s yielded since August 21st. On a positive note, it seems as though Hirano’s the new preferred option in Arizona’s fluid bullpen, so he should bounce back from this outing. Hirano does not own any glaring splits within his batted ball profile, just the occasional gopher ball which occurred in Colorado last night. He’s working in a setup role, but Brad Ziegler did secure his seventh hold with Arizona last night. Ziegler’s been scoreless his last eight (6.2 innings) and owns a 1.31 ERA his last 20 appearances.

Save number eight for Jose Alvarado in a clean outing with two strikeouts. Alvarado’s given up only one hit his last 12 games (9.2 innings) with 16 strikeouts versus only three walks. In the second half, Alvarado’s worked 20.2 innings with a 1.30 ERA and has a 1.14 ERA over his last 37 contests dating back to June 12th. While our chart will still consider this a committee, Sergio Romo’s only pitched once over the last 15 games for Tampa Bay. It’s probably too late to handcuff Romo with Alvarado, but keeper league owners and those preparing for drafts next season should not ignore Alvarado’s recent surge in performance.

Not akin, but worth noting, Atlanta used Jonny Venters for the save on Wednesday despite A.J. Minter’s last outing being on Monday. Minter’s been battling back soreness and may not have been available, so his owners should track this closely. As for Venters, he remains one of the best comeback stories of 2018 notching his third save of the year, and second since joining the Braves with a 1.66 ERA in 20 games. Dan Winkler garnered the win in relief walking one and striking out one.

After intimating a committee in Minnesota following the Fernando Rodney trade, it’s been Trevor Hildenberger working as the primary closing option. Hildenberger notched his sixth save last night giving up a hit and striking out during a 1.1 inning appearance. He’s been scoreless his last seven games and converted six straight save chances. Teammate Taylor Rogers struck out the only batter he faced extending his scoreless streak to 19.2 innings spanning 18 games. During his streak, Rogers has seven holds, two saves and 18 strikeouts.

Former Twins reliever, Ryan Pressly, recorded his first save with Houston firing a clean ninth inning with a strikeout. Flying below the radar due to Roberto Osuna’s arrival, Pressly’s been scoreless his last 15 outings with a win, seven holds and this save in them. As an Astro, Pressly owns an impressive 0.96 ERA, 1.50 FIP, 0.54 WHIP, 25:1 K:BB, 59 percent ground ball rate, a swinging strike percentage of 16.9 and 64.1 percent contact allowed. If anything were to happen with Osuna in the future, keep Pressly in the memory bank.

In a pivotal match-up with the Cubs, the Brewers bullpen thrived on Wednesday night. Corey Knebel allowed his first hit since his recall on September second but struck out two in 1.1 innings of work. Knebel’s retired 20 of 21 hitters faced over his last six outings with 12 strikeouts. Josh Hader did yield a hit while striking out the side. He faced 10 hitters in three innings in Chicago with nine strikeouts and raised his season total to 130 strikeouts in 74.2 innings. For perspective, Jake Arrieta has 127 strikeouts in 159.2 innings this year. Jeremy Jeffress did not get a save chance when Milwaukee added to its lead in the ninth inning, but he did throw a clean ninth with a strikeout as he remains entrenched as the primary closer in a surging bullpen.

Quick Hits: A return to action for Kenley Jansen, a clean inning with a strikeout. It’s been a week since he pitched in a live game and has been scoreless his last five appearances with six strikeouts.

A much needed scoreless outing by Shane Greene with only a walk against him. Greene’s struggled of late giving up runs in three of his last five contests.

Felipe Vazquez held on for his 22nd consecutive save, and 32nd of the season, allowing three hits, an earned run and striking out two in St. Louis. Vazquez now owns the longest save streak in the National League this year, breaking a tie with Jansen, and owns a 1.36 ERA over his last 39.2 innings with 56 strikeouts.

Once again, a non-save appearance for Will Smith and he yielded two hits and an earned run to take the loss. This snaps a four game scoreless streak for Smith who lacks a save in September.

Save number nine for Kirby Yates despite giving up two hits, including a home run, with a strikeout. Yates has converted nine of 10 save chances since the Brad Hand trade, including his last four in a row. Hopefully he will be able to mitigate the gopher ball which plagued him in late August.

While Boston continues to audition pitchers for the eighth inning, Craig Kimbrel’s rounding into form. Kimbrel notched his 39th save and has only allowed one hit over his last eight appearances (31 total batters faced). He’s only given up one run over his last nine games and struck out 25 in his last 13 appearances.

Benefiting from Hirano’s walk-off home run, Wade Davis won his third decision of the year throwing a clean ninth inning with two strikeouts. Davis has only yielded one earned run his last 12 games on five hits and two walks with 17 strikeouts.

Still no clarity in the White Sox bullpen but, Hector Santiago recorded his second save in extra innings. Juan Minaya gets his second win working two innings giving up a hit and a walk with two strikeouts. Ian Hamilton pitched a clean eighth inning and Jace Fry struck out two in the ninth. It seems like they prefer Minaya’s ability to work multiple innings, so hone in on the Hamilton to Fry bridge but nothing’s guaranteed with this bullpen.

Not Very Stable
Hot Seat
Committee

 


Bullpen Report: September 12, 2018

Torey Lovullo did not have to wait long to test out his new closer committee. One night after Lovullo told reporters that he was replacing Brad Boxberger with a group of relievers, the Diamondbacks’ bullpen worked on preserving a one-run lead against the Rockies with two outs in the seventh inning. That’s when Zack Greinke departed with a runner on second base. Lovullo began with lefty Andrew Chafin, who was set to face Gerardo Parra and Charlie Blackmon. Chafin failed to get the final out against both pinch-hitter Chris Iannetta and Blackmon, as he walked them both. Brad Ziegler had to come in against DJ LeMahieu and do what Brad Ziegler does — get a ground ball out.
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