Archive for Denard Span

When you examine at end-of-season rankings, some players stand out more than others against the backdrop of their rotisserie-successful peers. But a lot happens in the course of a year. It’s unfair to dismiss the accomplishments of players as something … less than fluke but more than breakthrough … without some thorough investigation.

Some players finally realize their potential and have built a foundation of skills (including the “health skill”) on which their new performance baselines can rest. But others haven’t. And that’s usually reflected in their outcomes the following season. It happens to some players unexpectedly, but some are easy to see coming.

More than a handful of players stick out right away as candidates for that kind of result next year. Too many things went their way, and I wouldn’t expect so many to go in their favor once again. We’ve discussed these players in the podcast at one time or another. Sometimes I think that such players are obvious, but there’s always a proponent or buyer.

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If you’re in a league that allows daily roster adjustments, whether it’s head to head or roto, then streaming is probably what you’re all about here at the end. With four more days of games, every little bit helps and picking up the right player could mean the difference between a win and a “if only I had another week to play.” While Mike Podhorzer covers the recommended streamer candidates for pitchers over the next two days, I’ll throw you a few hitters who could give you that one final push. Some may be available, some might not, but all are swinging a hot bat right now and if you can use them…use them. Read the rest of this entry »

While it seems like time is rapidly running out, there are still roughly three weeks to go in the regular season and that’s still enough time to make a move in a few of the categories involving counting stats. Runs scored and stolen bases are still available on your waiver wire and while it might take the full three weeks to see some results, an impact can still be made…hopefully. With such little time left, you’ve got to pull out all the stops and every bit of help counts. Here are two guys who can probably help in those categories. Read the rest of this entry »

There’s a Phillie outfielder that should be getting more pub these days, and his name is not Jayson Werth. In fantasy circles at least, it’s Shane Victorino that’s been performing at a laudable pace most of the year. Maybe it’s my fandom, or the BABIP-lowered .259 batting average, but I’ve been guilty of ignoring Victorino myself. Should I have given him more pub?

I’m not sure. Going into the season, he struck me as a little overrated – a Denard Span dressed up in more expensive and slightly more powerful (and, judging by his nickname, exciting) clothing. A good batting average and 30 stolen bases is worthwhile, but 10ish home runs means you shouldn’t pay too much for it, after all.

Well, then Victorino found his boomstick. His .196 ISO, 40.1% flyball percentage, and 11.4% HR/FB are all full-season career highs and have contributed to his career high in home runs, achieved with much of the season left. Of course, ISO is one of the last statistics to stabilize, so we should remember that. But, other than expected regression to his career means, is there something here that might stick?

One thing that leaps out at the page is a lack of linear progression towards these highs. He hasn’t had a growing flyball percentage, nor has his HR/FB total been inching forward. This isn’t something backed by extensive research, but nice linear buildup towards a career high just makes a person feel better about the repeatability of that ability. Say Victorino was getting older, slower, and more powerful – like Johnny Damon in his later New York years – then we might expect a couple of years with nice home run totals. Then again, Damon’s power didn’t come in a nice linear way either – his is more a picture of peaks and valleys.

Check it out:

Does Victorino’s look familiar?

We’ll have to plead not enough information, given how many more data points Damon has on Victorino. The best thing to note is that his speed scores are not going down, and with some regression in BABIP in the second half, Victorino might even be worth more than he has been to date – if he can hold on to his power gains.

Otherwise, he might just still be Denard Span – with a nice, powerful first half behind him. It’s all about production versus projection in the fantasy game, in the end.

Friend of RotoGraphs Jimbo posed this question in the comments of an earlier article:

How do you weigh a pick like Ichiro that early when there’s still power left to draft…and it’s a scarce resource?

I thought that would make an excellent question for the debut of our newest feature, the RotoGraphs Panel. Here’s how our writers responded:

Marc Hulet: I personally have Ichiro ranked as the 10th overall outfielder (based on 5X5) in mixed leagues and 4th overall in AL-only format. At 36, you have to start worrying about his age and the slip in steals in ’09 (from 43 to 26). With that said, he has nine straight 200 hit seasons, hit .352 last year and has scored 100+ runs in eight of the past nine seasons. I have him nestled at No. 10 between Jayson Werth at nine and Adam Lind at 11.

Power is a scarce resource, but so is reliability; the only pieces missing from his game are power and RBIs and I would rather go hunting on the waiver wire for home runs than steals and/or batting average. I will admit that Ichiro is getting credit in 2010 based on his reputation but I’ll personally keep believing in him until A) He slips for two straight seasons or B) He hits 40 years of age, whichever comes first. I expect his average to drop to between .310-.320 but I am hoping for a return to 100 runs scored and 30+ steals. Call me optimistic.

Zach Sanders: Ichiro has been a top-50 fantasy player since his move to the Major Leagues. I remember him going in the second round in years past, due to his awesome steal and hit totals. Now that he is older and the steals aren’t as bountiful, he still has great value. Drafting Ichiro (around his ADP) over a power hitter is perfectly acceptable for two reasons.

First, he does contribute to the steals category, even if it is only 20 a year. Second, his AVG is so high that it can change the way you draft. Since he comes to the plate so often, his average is even more influential, and can make up for other guys on your team. Since he makes up for guys with low averages, you can draft power players that slip through the cracks for this very reason, and still be fine.

Dan Budreika: Ichiro’s been wowing us for years. He put together a nice year offensively last year after a lackluster 2008. But he is not getting younger and he will be 36-years-old this season. He did battle some injuries last season but what disturbs me is his un-Ichiro like 26 steals. He was also caught 9 times. I just don’t see Ichiro approaching the 40 marker in the stolen base department again and those have generally been one of his biggest fantasy strengths. He doesn’t offer much power and you can really only expect 10 homers. Power ages better than speed and Ichiro is no young buck anymore. Take the safer route with a big bopper over the aging Ichiro early in your draft.

Eno Sarris: Ichiro Suzuki is a tough nut to crack. He hit .311 on 0-2 counts last year! Nutty. On the other hand, minus the batting average, he looks like Denard Span (ADP 125.46) – a guy with barely-double-digit power that is likely to steal about 30 bases. That’s a guy that should be picked in the late rounds to boost a team flagging on speed, not in the mid-rounds as a foundational player. Managers shouldn’t normally build their rosters around him… except in certain instances. Let’s say you are hoping to get Adam Dunn (ADP 55.95) after Ichiro (ADP 40.46) – then he fits like a glove. Consider that taking those players in the fourth and fifth rounds would give you two players that, using last year’s numbers, averaged out to a .313 batting average with 25 home runs and 13 stolen bases. That fits. Ichiro gives you domination in one category that allows you to pick people like Russell Branyan (ADP 293.50) and Chris Davis (159.89) later in the draft, too. That’s added value, in flexibility, that shouldn’t be poo-pooed. It’s not easy to answer this question, and that’s why Ichiro gets drafted as high as 29 and as low as 57. But there are plenty of high-power low-batting average sluggers that become much more attractive as soon as you bring Ichiro! into the fold.

David Golebiewski: Ichiro is one of the more difficult players to project in all of fantasy baseball. We know that he’s not going to draw many walks or hit for much power (his .113 ISO last season was his highest mark since 2005). But he has consistently posted well above-average BABIP figures (.357 career) by virtue of his Olympic-level speed and ability to beat out infield hits. Over the last three years, Ichiro has the second-highest infield hit rate in the majors. His career batting average on ground balls is .306. For reference, the AL average hovers around the .240-.245 range.

In 2009, Ichiro managed a .384 BABIP, and hit an obscene .353 on grounders. Even for a guy who has time and again posted lofty BABIP figures, it’s likely that those numbers will regress in 2010. A simple Marcel projection forecasts a .319/.365/.418 line and a .352 BABIP. If Ichiro’s BABIP trends back toward his career average, then he’s a .320 batter, as opposed to last year’s .350+ machine.

The big question regarding his fantasy value is, will a 36 year-old Ichiro be great base stealer, or merely a good one? He missed the beginning of the 2009 season with a bleeding ulcer, but his 26 steals were a career-low, and his SB percentage (74.3) was his lowest since 2002. Ichiro’s Speed Score (5.2) was a career low, and well below his 6.6 overall mark in the majors. If I had to conjure a guess, I would lean toward the conservative side and project somewhere in the range of 25-35 steals next year.

MockDraftCentral currently has Ichiro at number 39 overall, which strikes me as reasonable. Just how one values Ichiro’s steals compared to another player’s power depends largely on the league format, but I’m a big advocate of going for the best available talent in the early rounds. Owners can get themselves in trouble by feeling that they must take a player who does X in round Y. I still think Ichiro is worthy of a relatively early-round pick.

Brian Joura: I have not owned Ichiro since 2005. I like taking him in mock drafts but not in real leagues. And the reason is that he is very unpredictable. Everyone says you take him and you have a stud in AVG. Some years that is very true and other years he is simply not that dominating. Yes, he has four years where he’s posted marks over .350, including last year. But he also has five years where he was at .322 or lower.

If he reaches that .350 mark, than the early pick on him works out great. But if he finishes at .310 like he did in 2008 then you are sort of left holding the bag. It would be like drafting Adam Dunn and only getting 30 HR. It’s a good total but not what you were expecting. Eno mentioned that he has gone as low as 57 and I would certainly take him there but I will not pull the trigger on him at pick 29.

The Minnesota Twins are not known for their outfield. The team’s big league outfielder core sports a combined OPS under .800 that puts the group in the bottom tier of major league outfields. With such a flawed group, the way the teams uses their assets will be very important, so let’s take a look at how each is being used and how they should be used.

Denard Span – Span has elbowed his way into a solid position on this team by being pretty good at everything. His solid approach at the plate (12.3% walk rate, 16.5% strikeout rate) has continued, and his 15.9% reach percentage is 12th in the league and close to elite status. He’s much better against lefties (.914 OPS) than righties (.768 OPS), but beggars can’t be choosers.

Unfortunately for the Twins and Span, his defense is not elite. Span’s UZR at center field this year is 30 runs under average, and he really should only be used on the corners according to the numbers. In 2008, he was 43 runs in the negative in center field. Yeah, he’s getting better with the glove, but Span is a corner outfielder that hits like a center fielder. In this group, though, he probably should be an everyday starter.

Delmon Young – Here’s another Twinkie outfielder that hits like a center fielder, and the last time he played center field (2007 in Tampa Bay), he cost his team almost 45 runs per 150 games according to his UZR rating. Young is not the answer in CF, either.

The rest of his Young’s game does not emulate Span’s. Young has improved his reach rate from 50.3% in his debut to 34.4% this year, but the new number is still on par with such ‘disciplined’ luminaries as Jeff Francoeur and Jose Lopez. With a line drive number that has decreased every year in the majors, and a strike out rate over 30% this year, both the short-term and long-term views of Young’s career have plenty of warts. Moving to Minnesota has also been famously terrible for his power, and his fly ball rates have continued to drop this year. An almost-decent fly ball rate of 32.6% in Tampa has turned into a terrible 24% rate this year.

The only thing worth pointing to in Young’s resume is that his decent speed has led to a career BABIP of .345 that seems steady at this point. With a nice BABIP like that, he should be able to maintain good batting averages, and ZiPS agrees by projecting him to hit .285 from here on out. Since he offers so little everywhere else, fantasy owners should be rooting for a trade, or looking for a trade partner in their league. Some people still like Young.

Michael Cuddyer – With a career slugging percentage of .446, Cuddyer is the slugger in this outfield. He’s having a good year and seems to be recovered from his myriad health issues from last year.

Earlier in his career he struck out a little too much but he’s now settled into a sub-20% level. He reaches a bit (25.1% career), and right now he’s making contact with 66% of the balls he swings at outside the zone. With a career contact rate at 53.6%, this number may point to some coming whiffs. Another negative is that Cuddyer is in the middle of a three-year decline in fly balls. He’ll need to loft the ball a little more in order to keep getting the ball out of the yard – his 18.6% HR/FB rate is an unsustainable career high, in other words.

All of this said, something in between his 2006 and 2007 levels of production are almost certainly on the way, meaning he’ll end up with a batting average around .280 and a decent home run total. That’s another every day starter for you, and a solid starter in leagues any deeper than standard mixed leagues.

Carlos Gomez – The reason for this article has been Gomez’ ‘improving’ play recently. So far in May, he’s gone .250/.327/.354, which counts as a solid jump up from his .195/.250/.293 slash line in April. He’s done so by improving his walk rate to 8.2% and his reach rate from 36.8% to a more decent 25.2% level so far this year.

The question might still be, though, if a center fielder putting up even his improved walk rate can succeed if striking out 22.5% of the time and not showing any power. Sure, his defense in center field is the best of the bunch (15.6 UZR/150 career), but he’s currently a negative on offense. Right now, his best value would be as a defensive replacement in center field, but he’s young and the team will continue to run him out there and cost the more valuable Cuddyer, Young and Span at-bats for no real good reason. If that changes, though, Cuddyer and Span should get a nudge up in your rankings.

Entering the 2008 season, Twins outfielder Denard Span was considered a mid-range prospect who never made good on his lofty draft status. The 20th overall pick on the 2002 amateur draft, Span was an all-state wide receiver as well as a baseball star in high school. In their preview of the ’02 draft, Baseball America rated Span as possessing 70 speed on the 20-to-80 scouting scale and remarked that, “it’s easy to look at him and dream of Kenny Lofton.” The 6-0, 205 pound lefty was supposed to become a sparkplug for the Twinkies, working the count and then wreaking havoc on the base paths.

However, despite all of the accolades, Span’s stats rarely matched his glowing scouting reports. Span moved rather slowly through Minnesota’s system and rarely got the ball out of the infield, barely slugging above .300 between Rookie Ball and the Low-A Midwest League between 2003 and 2004. 2005 brought with it some promise, as the Florida native hit .339/.410/.403 in the High-A Florida State League and .285/.355/.345 upon earning a promotion to the AA Eastern League, but his momentum was once again stunted upon returning to Double-A New Britain in 2006 (.285/.340/.349).

Span was bumped up to AAA Rochester in 2007, which would end up being the lowest point in his career. Span batted just .267/.323/.355, without working the count (7.6 BB%) or helping matters on the bases (64 SB% in 39 attempts). Following his lackluster campaign, both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus soured on Span. BA rated him as just the fourth best center field prospect in the Twins’ system, while BP commented that “there is not much reason to believe he can be more than an extra outfielder.” At the time, it was hard to argue with either of those pronouncements. After all, Span was just a career .282/.349/.347 hitter, with average plate discipline and a propensity for being called out on the base paths (66.2 SB%).

Just when it seemed as though Span would be regarded as an exorbitantly-priced version of Lew Ford, he suddenly started to hit like a Lofton proxy. After a red-hot start at Rochester (14.3 BB%, .915 OPS in 156 AB), Span found himself seeing regular playing time for the Twins in the absence of Michael Cuddyer. In 411 PA, Span hit .294/.387/.432, posting a .364 wOBA and a 1.73 WPA/LI that paced all Minnesota outfielders. Though Span’s huge 25.7 line drive rate figures to fall, his .342 BABIP wasn’t excessively high.

Ordinarily, one might regard Span’s season as a blip, a flash in the pan. How often does a career disappointment suddenly start raking in the majors? However, there are some reasons to think that Span made some legitimate improvements in his game this past season. He drew walks at a 12.6% clip for the Twinkies while keeping his K rate in check (17.3%). His contact rate was a healthy 88.7%, and he almost never strayed from the strike zone, with an OSwing% of just 16.7%. That was the 10th-lowest figure among batters with at least 400 PA. Span’s stolen base prowess improved somewhat, at least to the point where he wasn’t harming his team (using the .22 run value for a SB and the -.38 value for a CS, Span’s 18/25 season came out to a net positive of 1.3 runs).

It’s not that uncommon for a player to experience a single-season hike in batting average or power, but it’s far more rare for a batter to show much-improved plate patience and then give all of those gains back the following year. Span’s increased walk rate and very low O-Swing% paint the picture of a hitter who refined his control of the strike zone and took a more mature approach with him to the batter’s box. Span might not be a star in the making, but as a high-OBP player with some speed, he could be a nice contributor to both the Twins and fantasy owners.