Archive for David Wright

Blame it on the injuries.  Blame it on the fact that the once lush and dense forest of talent to be found at third base is thinning out faster than a middle aged guy’s hairline.  Blame it on Rio or the bellboy, I don’t really care.  The fact of the matter is, the position is like a fantasy nightmare that picks right back up where you left off no matter how many times you wake yourself up and try to calmly fall back asleep.  And it just keeps getting scarier each time. Read the rest of this entry »

Remember the days when third base used to be one of the deepest positions and loaded with talent?  Well, not anymore and not for the last few seasons either.  It’s at the point where you need to start seriously considering a significant investment in one of the top 5 guys out there or be doomed to sit with mediocrity at a position once known for it’s outstanding power production. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve done a fair amount of reading on third base rankings headed into the 2011 fantasy baseball season. While most prognosticators and enthusiasts recognize some elite talent at the tippy-top of the list, references such as “terrifying,” “black hole,” and, ahem, “talentless batch of hackers” have described the rest of the list, which I might venture to simply call not terribly deep. Third base will present many managers with a challenge, but I’m not so sure there aren’t some gems to be had in this list.

Read the rest of this entry »

Here are 10 fantasy hitters who really helped their teams in the month of June

10. Hanley Ramirez .298-4-25-17-9

While none of these numbers jump out at you, Ramirez contributed across the board last month. And those 9 SB were the fourth-highest in MLB. Some might prefer Carl Crawford here, and their months were very similar, but I preferred Ramirez’ 11-RBI edge to Crawford’s 2-SB lead.

9. Brandon Phillips .373-2-7-22-3

Yes, the HR and RBI numbers were nothing to get excited about. But Phillips finished in the top 10 in both AVG and R. And since people think I am too negative about Phillips in general, I thought I would recognize his fine month.

8. Rafael Furcal .362-3-16-21-4

After missing most of May with a strained hamstring, Furcal had an outstanding month in June. While some observers thought his defense suffered, Furcal showed no signs of the hamstring slowing him offensively.

7. Adrian Gonzalez .363-7-23-14-0

He finished in the top 10 in each of the Triple Crown numbers, which made up for the bagel in SB

6. Dustin Pedroia .374-4-16-19-6

His fine month was cut short when Pedroia broke his left foot while fouling a ball off on the 25th. The previous day he had a 5-for-5 game with 3 HR and 5 RBIs.

5. Adrian Beltre .376-7-19-19-0

The difference between fourth and eighth on this list is very small in my opinion. You could make a case for any order and I would not disagree with you.

4. Vladimir Guerrero .356-6-24-22-0

In early June I turned down an offer of Guerrero for Ubaldo Jimenez. Since that team needs offense, I think I might have screwed up.

3. Chris Coghlan .377-3-13-30-2

He led all hitters in runs scored in June and finished fourth in AVG.

2. David Wright .404-6-29-20-4

After posting a 37.1 K% in May, Wright was down to a more manageable 24 percent rate last month. He had a .486 BABIP for the month of June along with a .475 wOBA and a 202 wRC+.

1. Josh Hamilton .454-9-31-23-3

As great as Wright was in June, Hamilton was better. He led MLB in both AVG and RBIs, finished 2nd in HR and 5th in R. He was touted as a buy candidate here in early May and I hope you were able to add him to your team.

Honorable Mention – Crawford, Reyes, Boesch, Sanchez, M. Ramirez

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Dan Haren – One of the top 10 pitchers off the board in most fantasy drafts, Haren has produced a -$3 fantasy value this year according to Last Player Picked. On top of that, Haren is known as a first-half pitcher, as his ERA is nearly a full run higher after the All-Star break and his WHIP goes from 1.085 to 1.316 in the second half of the year. But Haren has been one of the unluckier pitchers around, with a .342 BABIP and a 17.0 HR/FB rate. His GB/FB ratio is nearly identical to where it was a year ago and Haren’s K/BB ratio of 5.53 is the second-best mark in baseball.

Juan Rivera – His ownership rate in CBS Sports leagues has declined from 77 percent on Opening Day to just 45% this week. Rivera got off to a slow start in April and did even worse in May. But Rivera had just a .203 BABIP last month. With Kendry Morales on the shelf, there are no worries about Rivera not getting the playing time to work out of his slump. He is likely available for little cost and could provide a nice HR bump going forward. And with a little better luck on balls in play he could prove not to be an anchor in AVG, either.

David Wright – Current owners may look at his .353 BABIP and .269 AVG and decide that Wright is no longer an elite fantasy player. Certainly, the 35.5 K% is troubling to everyone. But Wright’s HR power is back from its 2009 vacation, as his 16.4 HR/FB mark is nearly 10 percent higher from a year ago and right in line with the numbers he produced from 2004-2008. (U) ZiPS sees him getting the same 27 SB he did a season ago. So the big question is: How will Wright do in AVG here on out? A plethora of Ks killed his AVG through most of May, but Wright seems to be getting on track recently. In the tiny sample of eight games, Wright has 6 Ks in 29 ABs and a .310/.382/.517 slash line. In his previous 21 games, Wright fanned in 34 of his 80 ABs and posted a .250 AVG. If Wright can keep his strikeouts down to his career level of 20.9 percent, he is a good bet to challenge for .300 going forward.

SELL

Elvis Andrus – Despite a .267 AVG last year, Andrus excited fantasy players with his ability to steal bases. (U) ZiPS shows him finishing the 2010 season with 43 SB, which would top all of the preseason projections for him. Andrus is also projected to smash the preseason predicitions with 92 R, thanks in part to his move to the top of the order. But now is the time to sell high on the Rangers’ shortstop. His .380 BABIP screams regression. (R) ZiPS sees a .318 mark here on out and even that might be optimistic. As a GB hitter with good speed who can hit line drives, Andrus profiles as a player who would post a high BABIP. But last year he had a .305 mark in 541 PA.

Matt Garza – A four-category contributor on the first-place Rays, Garza is ready to challenge for career-bests in each fantasy category. But his K/9 is down from 8.38 a year ago to 7.11, his GB/FB ratio is a career-low 0.84 and he has a .266 BABIP. Garza has consistently posted low HR rates, so his FIP might be a better marker than xFIP, but both of those metrics are a full run above his current 3.08 ERA.

Andy Pettitte – The Yankees ace just keeps rolling along and is on pace for a 20-win season for the first time since 2003. But (R) ZiPS sees his production from here on out falling off significantly. And given Pettitte’s age (38 in June), xFIP (4.09) and injury concern, that projection should be taken seriously. Pettitte missed a start in early May due to elbow inflammation. In four starts since returning, he has a 3.08 ERA and a 4.85 K/9.

HUNCH

Torii Hunter – Last season Hunter was enjoying a career year before ending up on the DL with a groin injury which cost him 39 games. This year Hunter got off to a solid start in April but scuffled in May. After pounding fastballs last year, Hunter is below-average against them this season. I like Hunter to recapture the magic from last year and exceed his (U) ZiPS projection of .278-21-83-77-12.

It’s time for another episode of “You can get with that, but this is where it’s at,” boys and girls. This week, we take a look at the heroes manning what may prove to be the thinnest position on the diamond. Where shortstop had such frugal luminaries as Everth Cabrera, Ryan Theriot and Elvis Andrus, and catcher featured thrifty backstops like Miguel Montero and A.J. Pierzynski, we may have a harder time finding values at the hot corner.

As usual, we’ll start in the first tier. You can’t really fault anyone for going big with Alex Rodriguez (despite the hip and the age, 3.37 ADP), David Wright (despite the power outage, 14.76 ADP), Evan Longoria (I don’t see a problem here, 10.28 ADP) or Mark Reynolds (the king of the whiff, 20.17 ADP). Why is Ryan Zimmerman being drafted at the end of the third round (39.78 ADP)? I guess people are suspicious of his career high .233 ISO (and 33 home runs) last year. I take the view that nothing seems out of place for a 25 year-old top prospect with a .229 minor league ISO and a slowly increasing fly ball rate, who is also on the correct side of his peak. Sign me up for some of that in 2010.

The next tier has some svelte athletes (Pablo Sandoval, 44.83 ADP), some slow-footed plodders (Chone Figgins, 77.84 ADP) and some low-contact sluggers (Michael Young, 93.51 ADP). Scarcasm aside, why not take a player with possibly the same amount of risk (and yet bundles of upside) a little bit later than the fellow members of his tier? Gordon Beckham (93.87 ADP) had a good rookie season despite a low line drive percentage (16.6%) that kept his BABIP down (.294), and therefore his batting average (.270). But look at the good side, if you prorate out his stats, he had a 21-home run, 11 stolen-base kind of year, and his line drive rates were much higher in the minor leagues. Even if he just finished out the pro-rated string next year, he’d be an ADP value in his tier. Bend it like Beckham!

Let’s move past mixed metaphors to the final tier. This tier makes you realize how turdly third base truly is this year. You can gamble on next year’s Mark Reynolds with Ian Stewart (131.84 ADP) or put your grandfather Larry Wayne Jones (ADP 134.39) in the position and cross your fingers. The projection systems don’t like the bearded wonder Casey Blake (ADP 162.64) for good reason, as late bloomers are usually early exits. You could say the same about Mark DeRosa (ADP 246.44), really. Who’s to like in this tier?

The answer, in the immortal words of Homer Simpson, is “I… don’t… know.” I’d probably try to avoid the whole situation altogether by drafting a third-sacker earlier. But I think I might take a pair of players from the bottom, and those two might be Adrian Beltre (ADP 199.55) and Alex Gordon (245.03). Some may say that splits aren’t statistically significant, but perhaps that’s not true in Beltre’s case, who has a grand total of 3272 away at-bats away from pitcher’s havens in Los Angeles and Seattle. In those (probably significant at-bats), he’s put up a .287/.338/.488 career line (compared to a .726 OPS at home). I’d just cover my butt with a post-hype sleeper like Gordon, who had been making nice strides in walk rate, strikeout rate, ISO, line drive rate, and reach rate before injury sidelined him last year. I’ll be owning him more than once this year, I’d reckon.

Ah! Let me stop you right there. Jorge Cantu is ranked as a first baseman.

This picture neatly sums up the 2009 season for the New York Mets. The Amazins hoped to celebrate the opening of Citi Field with a deep run into October. Instead, the club was ravaged by injuries. They lost up-the-middle stars Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, 1B Carlos Delgado and ace Johan Santana, among others, for big chunks of the season.

Third baseman David Wright wasn’t immune to the baseball injury equivalent of “Captain Trips,” serving a DL stint in August after a frightening incident in which he took a pitch off the helmet. But Wright must have felt like the last man standing. Forced to call upon a cast of Quad-A characters, the Mets ranked 9th in the NL in team Park-Adjusted Batting Runs (-28.1). Wright (+24.1) and a hobbled Beltran (+21.3) were the only batters to cross the +10 mark.

That’s not to say that Wright enjoyed a typical season, though. Since he hit the majors in 2004, the 27 year-old’s skill-set has been well-defined: a double-digit walk rate, a K rate in the high teens and an Isolated Power figure north of .200. Here are some of Wright’s key stats from 2005 (his first full year as a starter) to 2009. One of these things is not like the other:

2005: 11.1 BB%, 19.7 K%, .217 ISO, .343 BABIP
2006: 10.2 BB%, 19.4 K%, .220 ISO, .350 BABIP
2007: 13.5 BB%, 19 K%, .222 ISO, .362 BABIP
2008: 13.1 BB%, 18.8 K%, .232 ISO, .328 BABIP
2009: 12.2 BB%, 26.2 K%, .140 ISO, .400 BABIP

From 2005-2008, Wright was a metronome at the plate. But his ’09 season was just bizarre. His punch out rate increased considerably, his power output took a dive, and his BABIP was obscenely, unsustainably high.

That .400 BABIP was by far the highest mark in the majors. Among batters with 500+ PA, Ichiro Suzuki was second at a distant .384.

Wright does have the attributes of a high-BABIP hitter. He works the count well, possesses decent speed and has generally hit for a lot of power. His career BABIP is .350, and his Expected BABIP (xBABIP) in 2009 was .346. But even so, no one can keep up a mark that high. Wright had the third-largest split between his BABIP and xBABIP among hitters in ’09.

How goofy was Wright’s performance on balls put in play? Here are his batted ball numbers from this past season, compared to his career averages and the NL average in 2009 (data from Baseball-Reference).

Wright has generally hit for a better average on grounders than most, but that 2009 figure is ridiculously high.

He didn’t hit for near as much power when he lofted the ball or hit a line drive. Wright didn’t pull the ball quite as much, and when he did, he didn’t produce the same forceful contact. He fared better on balls up the middle (due to a big spike in batting average), but his opposite-field slugging suffered, too:

(Data also from Baseball-Reference)

Overall, Wright cracked just 10 home runs, with a 6.9 HR/FB% that pales in comparison to his near-14 percent career average.

Citi Field likely didn’t do Wright any favors. Greg Rybarczyk of Hit Tracker Online has a fantastic article in The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010 that takes an in-depth look at Citi’s dimensions and how the switch from Shea Stadium to Citi Field affected various hitters. Rybarczyk concluded that Wright was the most negatively affected batter. According to Rybarczyk’s research, Wright had nine would-be homers become seven extra-base hits, one single and one out due to a “combination of deeper and taller fences”. Had those balls left the yard, Wright’s slugging percentage would have been .482 instead of .447.

Trip Somers Pitch F/X Blog has Wright’s 2009 spray chart. You can see some near misses here:

David also whiffed more often that he usually does. Those extra K’s are reflected in his plate discipline stats. Wright made contact with 87 percent of pitches within the strike zone in 2009, compared to an 89% career average (87-88% MLB average). His overall contact rate dipped to 80.4% (83.2% career average, 80-81% MLB average).

Courtesy of Somers’ Pitch F/X site, we can see that Wright’s extra swings and misses came against fastballs:

Wright’s whiff rate by pitch, 2008-2009

He saw a few more fastballs than usual in 2009: 62.6 percent, compared to a 60.8% career average. Wright didn’t whap those pitches with the same force. While still a quality fastball hitter in ’09, Wright was +0.69 runs above average per 100 pitches, well short of his career +1.55 run/100 mark.

Wright had an all-around wacky year. Going forward, it’s best to expect a lot of these Twilight Zone numbers to more closely resemble his career averages. In 2010, Wright will likely have a much lower BABIP, fewer whiffs and a higher ISO. Here are his projections for next season:

CHONE: .305/.391/.502, .197 ISO, 19.1 K%
ZiPS: .307/.396/.507, .200 ISO, 20 K%
Bill James: .302/.393/.499, .197 ISO, 22.4 K%
The Fans: .310/.398/.513, .203 ISO, 20.4 K%

David Wright should still be near the top of draft boards. It’s very likely that he’ll hit with more authority next year, giving owners his typical blend of power and speed.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen and first basemen.)

These rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.

To be absolutely precise, there should be down arrows next to Alex Rodriguez and David Wright because they used to be in a tier of their own and now have a little company at the top of the leaderboard. Despite his injured hip, Rodriguez basically replicated his 2008 season and an offseason of rest can only help. RJ Anderson and Dave Allen both covered David Wright and his power outage, and both agree the power should return. The only addition that I have, however crude, is that according to the hittracker, Wright would have only lost two of his 2008 home runs had he played in Citi Field that year. With power and speed, those two still rule the roost, if not as definitively as they have in the past. Ryan Zimmerman and Evan Longoria have joined them at the top and there’s not really much to say other than they just don’t boast the speed upside. They’re still pretty good players, though.

Aramis Ramirez used to be in the top tier. He could still be there. But last year just reminded everyone that he’s a 32-year-old third baseman that has dealt with injuries his whole career and is clearly post-peak. He’s fallen into a tier with some exciting names with risk attached. Pablo Sandoval is everyone’s favorite Panda, but as a BABIP outlier (.356 career, .317 career xBABIP) even his most ardent fan has to admit the risk that the batting average falls and leaves him as a slightly under-powered third baseman minus his best tool. There’s no risk with Mark Reynolds‘ power, but there’s also little likelihood of a nice batting average to go with his power/speed combo. As Dave Allen noted, he makes it work, but you’ll also need to make it work by making up for his batting average if you pick him. Dave Cameron showed how Chone Figgins has upped his walk rates through his career and made himself into a better player, but any 32-year-old that makes his living with his feet carries inherent risk. Plus, he offers no power. Gordon Beckham has a nice power/speed package going, but he’ll need to hit more line drives (16.6%) next year in order to get the batting average up. Michael Young doesn’t have the batting average problem, but he has power that oscillates from poor to mediocre.

The final tier is where the veterans go to finish their careers. Ian Stewart is the only upside play of the bunch, and he needs to strike out a little less (32.5% in 2009, 27.6% career) and hit some more line drives (14.1% in 2009, 18.2% career) so that the batting average can find its way to respectable. Obviously, he has power. Chipper Jones is the best of the post-peak guys, but he carries the most injury risk as well. Casey Blake, Mike Lowell, Mark DeRosa and Adrian Beltre can be picked out of the same bag using a blindfold. Admittedly, Beltre will cost the least, but getting him out of Safeco may mean that he will contribute similar stats to the other veterans in this tier.

In general, this is one of the more shallow positions in fantasy baseball. In a roto league, an owner betting on a final-tier third baseman is a step behind. The top two tiers offer some good value, but make sure you get your third baseman relatively early in 2010.

Stock Up

Tommy Hanson, Braves

A product of the now-defunct draft-and-follow process (he was a 22nd-round pick in the 2005 draft), Hanson garnered plenty of headlines during his ascent to Atlanta. The 6-6 righty laid waste to AAA to start the 2009 season (66.1 IP, 12.21 K/9, 2.31 BB/9), and he has made a very strong first impression as the Braves look to stay in the playoff race.

Hanson has punched out 6.72 per nine frames in the majors, with 3.54 BB/9 and a 4.14 FIP in 73.2 IP. The soon-to-be 23 year-old has all the pitches: a 93 MPH fastball, 83 MPH slider, 75 MPH curve and an 83 MPH change of pace. Hanson is getting ahead of hitters pretty well (his 63.4 First-Pitch Strike% is over 4 percentage points above the MLB average), and his breaking pitches in particular look nasty.

Tommy’s slider has 3.7 inches of horizontal movement away from righties (the MLB avg. is 2.4), while his curve breaks downward slightly more than the average breaker (5.8 inches, 5.3 average), with 1.1 inches more horizontal break (6.4) than the average yellow hammer (5.3). Here’s Hanson’s movement chart from his August 11th start versus Washington:

Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies

The 23 year-old Venezuelan (formerly of Arizona and Oakland) seems to have garnered the “busted prospect” label, based largely upon his anemic work with the A’s in 2008 (.278 wOBA in 316 PA, with an untenable 4.1 BB% and 26.8 K%). It’s never wise to write off such a young player, however; it’s not as though his skill set will just automatically remain stagnant.

Shipped to Colorado in the off-season, Gonzalez pasted the Pacific Coast League for a .339/.418/.630 line in 223 PA in ’09. AAA Colorado Springs is certainly a favorable offensive environment (inflating offensive production by nine percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2006-2008), but CarGo did a better job of working the count with a 10.3% walk rate, whiffing 16.7% of the time.

Gonzalez is getting fairly regular playing time for the Rockies right now, and he has a .285/.341/.517 triple-slash in 170 PA. Coors caveats apply, but Carlos still has +3.5 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs on the season. He hasn’t transformed into some model of plate discipline (31.8 Outside-Swing%, 25% MLB average), but Gonzalez has taken ball four 8.5% of the time. He has also chipped in 8 steals in 9 attempts.

Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs

A Japanese star inked to a four-year, $48M deal prior to the 2008 season, Fukudome posted a .328 wOBA in his “rookie” season that was considered a big disappointment. It’s not like he was a bad player, though, walking nearly 14% of the time while playing plus defense in an outfield corner. A brutal second half (.217/.314/.326) fueled the perception that Fukudome was nothing more than a fourth outfielder, but there really wasn’t all that much changed in Kosuke’s core skills when compared to his scorching first half (.279/.383/.408). Some decline? Yes, but nothing that explains a near-90 percentage point dip in BABIP:

Fukudomania! (1st half): 14.2 BB%, 18.1 K%, .129 ISO, .335 BABIP
BOOO! (2nd half): 12.8 BB%, 16.7 K%, .109 ISO, .248 BABIP

In 2009, Fukudome has boosted his lumber production with a .369 wOBA. He’s drawing a walk 16% of the time, with a .191 ISO to boot. Kosuke has compiled 3 Wins Above Replacement already. He basically looks like the scouting reports suggested: great eye, doubles power with the occasional dinger, with a enough range to play a passable center field.

Neftali Feliz, Rangers

When the Rangers acquired a bounty of young talent from the Braves in the July 2007 Mark Teixeira blockbuster, Feliz was a hard-throwing string bean with less than 75 professional innings under his belt. Two years later, Feliz is just plain overmatching major league batters out of the ‘pen.

His repertoire in short stints has been sick: a 98 MPH fastball, an 81 MPH power curve and an 89 MPH changeup. A lot of guys throw hard, but few possess Feliz’s combination of velocity and movement: his fastball tails in on the hands of righty batters 7.4 inches (6 inch MLB avg), with 11.2 inches of horizontal break (8.6 avg.) He essentially throws his heater with 4-seam velocity and vertical movement, with the running action of a two-seamer.

In 8.2 IP, Neftali has whiffed 16 batters, without allowing a walk. His long-term future lies in the rotation, but he could conjure up memories of K-Rod’s 2002 dominance in the meantime.

Jonny Gomes, Reds

The former Rays slugger is anathema to all things leather (career -19.9 UZR/150 in the outfield), but the born DH has slammed NL pitching for 15 home runs and a .277/.357/.584 line in 196 plate appearances for the Reds. Gomes likely won’t continue to homer at a Pujols-like pace, but even a performance in line with his career .240/.332/.470 triple-slash would be of use to fantasy owners. He can slug with the best of them, and he’s in a ballpark that certainly digs the long ball.

Stock Down

David Wright, Mets

Mets fans must be balled up in the fetal position by this point, no? The club entered the season with a strong shot of competing in the NL East on the basis of the Santana/Reyes/Wright/Beltran quartet of stars. Only Santana remains on the field now, as Wright took a 94 MPH Matt Cain fastball off the helmet in Saturday’s contest against the Giants.

The third baseman was having a productive, if atypical season at the plate in 2009. His .387 wOBA doesn’t look all the different, but Wright’s ISO dipped from around .220 from 2004-2008 to just .143 in 2009. He punched out a career-high 24.6% of the time, yet hit .324 on the basis of a ridiculous .415 BABIP.

The focus now, though, shifts to Wright’s long-term health. There’s a better chance of sudden peace in the Middle East than the Mets making the playoffs (Baseball Prospectus has New York’s odds at 0.15%; “so you’re telling me there’s a chance…Yeah!”) Wright didn’t “get his bell rung”, and he wasn’t “shook up”. He suffered a brain injury. There’s no incentive for the team to rush him back.

Johnny Cueto, Reds

Cueto has gotten throttled since the calendar turned to July. The 23 year-old Dominican gave up a .587 opponent slugging percentage that month, has been battered to the tune of a .644 SLG% in August. He cramped up during his August 11th start vs. St. Louis after two innings, then got drubbed for 8 H and 7 R in just 2.2 IP against the Nationals on the 15th.

Johnny has made some progress in terms of limiting free passes (3.03 BB/9, compared to 3.52 in ’08), but the homer problems persist. Cueto’s HR/FB% isn’t out of whack (11.2%), but the flyball-slanted righty has allowed 1.32 HR/9 this season after serving up 1.5 per nine in 2008. Reds skipper Dusty Baker has indicated that Cueto will have his next start skipped.

Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals

Not that long ago, I asked if Zimmermann might just be the best of 2009’s crop of rookie starters. Unfortunately, that argument is now moot. The 23 year-old righty will be out anywhere from 12-18 months following Tommy John surgery. It’s a highly disappointing development for Nationals fans, who had visions of a Strasburg/Zimmermann 1-2 duo leading the club out of the depths of the NL East standings.

Garrett Jones, Pirates

A 28 year-old minor league vet with a career .265/.321/.463 line in nearly 2,500 PA at the AAA level, Jones went all Shane Spencer on the NL in July (1.061 OPS, 10 HR). August has seen Mr. Jones hit a more reasonable .259/.333/.444, and even that is above what one would expect based on the big lefty batter’s minor league numbers. Per Minor League Splits, Jones’ work at AAA Indianapolis to begin to 2009 season translated to a .259/.291/.408 line at the highest level. His 2006-2008 translations are similarly bleak.

Performances at the extremes tend to skew the perception of a player. Jones’ incredible start likely had some running to the waiver wire to claim him, but his much larger body of work suggests that he’s more major league filler than some breakout performer.

Lastings Milledge, Pirates

Milledge has a clean slate in Pittsburgh, getting another opportunity to make good on the promise that made him a top prospect in the Mets system and a sought-after trade target of the Nationals. Thus far, it’s not working out very well. The 24 year-old has expanded his zone in the majors, walking just 6.6% of the time and swinging at nearly 32% of pitches off the plate), and he is hitting just .213/.259/.250 in 86 PA in 2009. Lastings’ walk rate under five percent. He’ll continue to get regular AB’s with the Pirates as they seek to rehabilitate his deteriorated plate approach, but it would be nice to see some sort of progress here.

Stock Up

Johnny Cueto, Reds

Cueto displayed his superb talent last season, though his tendency to cough up homers and occasionally lose the strike zone dragged down his overall line. In 2009, he’s made progress on both fronts. In 39.2 frames, Cueto has a 3.13 FIP, the product of a 2.91 strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.32 in ’08) and 0.45 HR/9. There’s certainly been some lucky bounces here to produce that 1.59 ERA: Cueto’s BABIP is .260, his strand rate is near 90% and his 4.2 HR/FB% is extremely low.

On the bright side, he’s shaved a little more than one walk per nine innings off his 2008 total (2.50 BB/9 this year, 3.52 in ’08). While his K rate (7.26 K/9) is down from last season (8.17), the overall net effect is positive (as Justin pointed out in the comments section, Cueto’s K/PA figure is slightly higher this year due to his efficiency). Cueto’s Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP), based on a pitcher’s K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, checks in at 4.34 (4.62 last season).

Jay Bruce, Reds

It’s the all-Reds edition of Stock Watch! A 22 year-old lefty with immense power, Bruce has adapted to major league pitching faster than most anticipated. With a .391 wOBA, 10 big flys and a sweet .262/.342/.570 line, Bruce has certainly been The Boss in 2009. Happily, his control of the strike zone (his biggest hurdle) has improved. Bruce has drawn a walk 10.1% of the time in 2009 (7.4% last year), whiffed less often (20.6% in ’09, 26.6% in ’08), and has cut his Outside-Swing percentage from 30.4% to 25.7%. In other words, he’s already among the best outfielders in the game, and he’ll only get better from here.

Carl Crawford, Rays

Crawford has probably stolen about six bases since I started typing this sentence. Tampa’s swift left fielder has been an absolute terror on the base paths in 2009, going a perfect 22-for-22 on stolen base attempts. With 3 more thefts, Crawford will match his total from an injury-marred 2008 season. If we use Tom Tango’s SB run value of +.19, then Crawford is closing in on half a win added in the stolen base department already.

Fortunately, Crawford is showing progress in other facets of his game as well. His Outside Swing% is down to 24.8%, from last year’s hacktastic 31.5% mark (24.4% MLB average). His 8.8% walk rate isn’t awe-inspiring, but it is the highest mark of his career. With 1.7 Wins Above Replacement, Crawford has been one of the ten most productive position players in the game.

Edwin Jackson, Tigers

Let’s give credit where it’s due: Jackson has been pretty darned effective in 2009. He came to Detroit with a reputation as a radar-gun curiosity who didn’t miss many bats or control the zone particularly well, but he’s making strides. Jackson isn’t a 2.60 ERA pitcher (duh), but his K/BB ratio is an impressive 3.18. With 7 K’s per nine and 2.20 BB/9, Jackson holds a 3.51 FIP. He’s looking more legitimate by the start.

David Wright, Mets

Wright’s early-season scuffle raised both panic and ire, but he’s just fine now. His wOBA is back up to .367, and he’s popped enough extra-base hits of late to raise his Isolated Power to .174. Wright is batting .364/.436/.697 in May. Hopefully, you didn’t sell low. One aspect of Wright’s game that is curiously diminishing is his stolen base ability. He was 34-for-39 in 2007, 15-for-20 in 2008 and just 5-for-10 in 2009.

Stock Down

Scott Kazmir, Rays

What happens to a control-challenged southpaw when he loses his ability to dominate hitters? Take a gander at Kazmir to find out. The 25 year-old’s walk rate has increased for a fourth straight season (4.97 BB/9), but he’s just not fooling batters the way he used to (7.11 K/9). Kazmir’s fastball velocity has dipped from 91.7 MPH in 2008 to just 89.9 MPH in 2009, and his hard, mid-80’s power slider is now more of a low-octane frisbee (80.4 MPH). With just 46.4% of his offerings crossing home plate (48.9% MLB average) and opponents making contact 84.3% of the time (75.1% career average), something is wrong with the Rays’ former ace.

Mike Aviles, Royals

Tony Pena Jr. might be on the DL, but Aviles has compensated by doing his best impression. After an unexpectedly productive rookie season, Aviles’ bat has flat lined in 2009. Impatient to a fault (2.9 BB%), the 28 year-old isn’t getting any favorable bounces on balls put in play (.247 BABIP). His nefarious .226 wOBA is fifth-worst among all batters, and he’s been nearly a win below replacement level with the lumber already. With lackluster play in the field as well (-12.6 UZR/150), Aviles has been an anchor on Kansas City’s hopes of staying competitive.

Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks

Never exactly known for his feats of strength (career .150 ISO and .431 SLG%), Jackson has been downright punchless this season. His microscopic .071 ISO ranks among the worst in the game. Jackson is not this bad, mind you: his .210 BABIP is incredibly low, so he should revert back more toward his usual level of production as the season goes on. The question is: is that enough? Underpowered as a first baseman, Jackson’s work in left field is still under review. Singles-hitting corner players aren’t exactly in vogue, so the 27 year-old is going to have to show some thump to do more good than harm to Arizona’s dwindling playoff chances.

Jeff Francoeur, Braves

Francoeur is this generation’s Joe Carter, compiling counting stats that mask the fact that he’s sort of a drag on his team’s offense. Frenchy continues to show next to no progress in terms of plate discipline, wildly hacking at 34.6% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. Not coincidentally, his First-Pitch Strike% is a career-high 71 percent (57.6% MLB average). Francoeur has gotten behind 0-1 or put the ball in play on the first pitch more than any other batter in the majors. With a wretched .290 OBP and little pop (.136 ISO), he’s produced a .299 wOBA. Showing apparent apathy toward working the count, Francoeur is an absolute mess at the plate right now.

Ian Snell, Pirates

Snell scarcely resembles the guy who posted a 4.01 FIP during the 2007 campaign. After walking 2.94 batters per nine innings during that year, Snell’s control took a giant leap back in ’08 (4.87 BB/9) and continues to go south in 2009 (5.4 BB/9). His K rate, 8.18 during his first full season in the big in 2006, checks in at just 6.08 this year (the continuation of a four-year decline). He’s not fooling much of anyone, and has put just 44.3% of his pitches within the strike zone (48.9% MLB average). Snell will continue to take his turns on a pitching-starved staff, but he hasn’t pitched like an above-average starter in quite some time. His FIP is 5.33.