Archive for David Freese

Blame it on the injuries.  Blame it on the fact that the once lush and dense forest of talent to be found at third base is thinning out faster than a middle aged guy’s hairline.  Blame it on Rio or the bellboy, I don’t really care.  The fact of the matter is, the position is like a fantasy nightmare that picks right back up where you left off no matter how many times you wake yourself up and try to calmly fall back asleep.  And it just keeps getting scarier each time. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s hard to believe we’re coming up on the first month of the season, and even a little harder to believe some of the surprises in the performances of the boys at the hot corner. In general, this whole group has been pretty disappointing, but much of that has to do with injury and rotten luck. Some have been great, some have been train-wreck-awful, and we have several new names to add via eligibility updates.  And where a rising tide may float all boats, a collapsing building can produce new views – and thus, the tiers have been shaken up quite a bit from the original ranking.

There are so many changes to the original rankings, including the size and number of tiers, that I’m not going to note an up or down for every player that has moved. Rather, I’ll indicate any notable ascent or descent and give a little rationale thereafter.

Tier 1
Evan Longoria
David Wright
Ryan Zimmerman
Alex Rodriguez

Read the rest of this entry »

Time to take a look and see who might be available in your leagues and could be worth adding to your squad.  It’s still real early, but there might be a few choice names out there that can help, whether it’s short term or long term.  Here’s a few to think about… Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve done a fair amount of reading on third base rankings headed into the 2011 fantasy baseball season. While most prognosticators and enthusiasts recognize some elite talent at the tippy-top of the list, references such as “terrifying,” “black hole,” and, ahem, “talentless batch of hackers” have described the rest of the list, which I might venture to simply call not terribly deep. Third base will present many managers with a challenge, but I’m not so sure there aren’t some gems to be had in this list.

Read the rest of this entry »

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

In a bit of a surprise, the Blue Jays started Cecil in the minors after he posted a decent rookie season in 2009. But he got the call to the majors after going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in two games in the Pacific Coast League. Cecil replaced Brian Tallet in the rotation and had a strong first start. He gave up two runs in six innings in Tampa Bay before allowing a two-run HR to Gabe Kapler in the seventh. Cecil has the chance to post good strikeout numbers and a league-average ERA if he can do a better job of keeping the ball in the park. In 100 IP in the majors, Cecil has a 6.93 K/9 and a 15.1 HR/FB rate.

David Freese, St. Louis Cardinals (owned in 5% of Yahoo! leagues)

In four seasons in the minors, Freese hit for both AVG and power. So far this season with the Cardinals, Freese has a .300 AVG but no home runs. He has an unsustainable .417 BABIP but he also has been having some issue with strikeouts, carrying a 30.0 K%. If he can start hitting a few home runs and cut down some on the strikeouts, he could survive the inevitable BABIP drop. Updated ZiPS projects him to finish with a .273 AVG and 11 HR, which is nice production off the waiver wire for third base.

Carlos Villanueva, Milwaukee Brewers (owned in 9% of Yahoo! leagues)

Always a good strikeout pitcher, Villanueva has 14 strikeouts in 10 IP so far this season. The rest of his early numbers are nearly as impressive, as he finally seems to have found a home as a reliever after bouncing back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen the past four years in Milwaukee. Villanueva has pitched in the eighth inning in three of his last four appearances. Perhaps this is the year that 42-year old Trevor Hoffman finally gives out, as his early season numbers are not confidence-inspiring. Villanueva would have to be under consideration along with Todd Coffey and LaTroy Hawkins as potential replacements. Hawkins has never really succeeded in multiple shots as a closer and Coffey has pitched in the eighth or ninth inning just three times in 10 outings this year, and all three of those were in mop-up roles. Add Villanueva for his fine pitching in middle relief and consider him a darkhorse candidate for saves.

When you’re playing a deep league, most of the time any player that will start in 2010 is draftable and interesting. In my 20-team keeper league, we have Corner Infield spots on our rosters, meaning that we need to play 60 players at first base and third base combined. No need to remind you that there are thirty teams in the league, I’m sure. Warm, starting bodies perk interest in these leagues.

So we come to the Cardinals, who have unloaded their coffers to protect Albert Pujols in the lineup with their shiny new toy, Matt Holliday. According to Cot’s Contracts, the Cards now have $81 million locked up in current contracts, and some significant players entering arbitration (Skip Schumaker, Kyle McClellan, and Ryan Ludwick most prominently). Factoring in all the young players that typically round out a roster, plus these arbitration upgrades, the Cards have already cleared $90 million in contracts this year, and could be looking at close to $95 million in payroll once the dust clears. Since 2005, the team has averaged $91.9 million per year in payroll. It certainly looks like some young men will get a shot to fill in the remaining holes on this roster.

All of this is preamble for GM John Mozeliak stating on Saturday that David Freese is the number one candidate for their third base opening, and (by implication) Miguel Tejada is probably not on his way into town. What can we expect from the 26-year-old, who is also trying to deal with a DWI charge that was handed down this offseason?

First, the positive. Freese hit .300 at every level last year, culminating in a 300/.369/.525 effort in AAA. As Marc Hulet pointed out in his piece on the Red Birds’ prospects, he was aided by some high BABIPs (.355 was his lowest BABIP since 2008). Another positive is that it seems Freese can do better than his 6% walk rate from last year, as his 2008 and 2009 rates were all higher. He can approach 10% and provide some value with the free passes. Lastly, Freese has posted ISOs over .200 in all but one of his minor league spots. He has real pop.

The bad news is that his strikeout rates could actually get worse next year. Freese debuted with a reasonable number last year (22.6%) but he showed rates in the minors that were in the high 20s. Those sort of strikeout rates aren’t normally associated with strong batting averages. Lo and behold, CHONE has Freese striking out more next year (25.2%), enjoying a more normal BABIP (.391 in 2009, projected for .329 in 2010) and posting a lower batting average (.269) as a result.

But CHONE didn’t account for the young man taking over the job and keeping it all year. The system has him projected for 388 plate appearances, and if he plays all year he will surely clear 600. Pro-rate the power out and you’re looking at a brand-spanking new .269/.335/.442 third baseman with 19 home runs and 82 RBI. I think both the Cardinals and deep league fantasy managers would be very happy with those numbers, especially considering their cost.