David Freese likes to keep you guessing. In 2011, he was a hero. From 2012 to 2013, he went from very good to very bad. This season he went from very bad to kinda alright, sort of. And I’m not altogether sure what to think of him for 2015. Allow me to explain.
*Updated 10/23/2014 with Position Tiers ($5.00 USD).
The 2015 Steamer projections are up on FanGraphs! “Steamer” uses playing time projections from our depth charts, but right now there are important players (Dustin Pedroia and Jon Lester for examples) missing actual projected playing time. I therefore went into mensch-mode and manually updated Plate Appearance and Innings Pitched projections – very manually, but at least somewhat rational. What I did for these players was go into their “Steamer 600” projections and took their HR, R, RBI and SB per Plate Appearance projected rates (W, SV, SO per Inning Pitched for pitchers) and outputted associated counting stats connected to the quantity of Plate Appearances/Innings Pitched.
*To see which players I manipulated, go into the “P” and “H” tabs in the below embedded file: click on the “…” tab to the left of the current depicted tab. I highlighted all names and counting stats per plate appearance or innings pitched that I edited in Yellow so that I can associate some accountability with the end-rankings. I edited a few catchers’ PA totals even though Steamer already had totals for them (Lucroy, Mesoraco, etc.). I also edited Troy Tulowitzki‘s and Carlos Gonzalez’s PA totals, because…well, you know. I could spend all month editing the PA totals, but I’m not that much of a mensch.
I suppose it could be Ryan Zimmerman or Brett Lawrie or Manny Machado, but I tend to pick on David Wright so why not be consistent. Third base has been kind of a minefield lately and no doubt there are many of you headed into your championship stretch runs and that’s going to be difficult without a third baseman. Your trading deadline has very likely passed so the best you can do is try to dredge the muck on the waiver wire and hope you can find some decent short term production. Guys like Juan Uribe are probably free. Maybe Mark Reynolds. Probably Will Middlebrooks. But scanning the ownership rates, there are a few other bats I’d recommend with more confidence.
Head over to the leaderboards, sort by third basemen over the last 30 days and filter by line drive rate and a really unexpected thing happens. There are 29 qualified third basemen on that list. Dead last is the leading All-Star vote getter at the hot corner in Josh Donaldson, who has a 6% line drive rate over the last month. Six percent. If that didn’t surprise enough, at the top of this list is none other than maybe-back-from-purgatory David Freese, who has hit almost 35% line drives over the last month. Go figure.
The MLB transactions list is usually a good place to start when a fantasy owner is looking for a surprise addition. Suppositions about those transactions can work even better, but I’m too late.
I’m a bit out of the loop on things, but I don’t think I’m off base here. I figured that both of these players were kind of obvious as recommendations when I saw their names, but their needles haven’t moved much since the announcements of their impending returns to 25-man rosters, each in a different circumstance.
If an owner has any reservations, then I’d say to them that I wouldn’t hesitate. I’d be aggressive, if there were any wonder about how one of the two would play in my league – in other words, if it’s because of league depth or something similar.
I don’t really like tiers, but it probably has something to do with the neatness of placing a player in a designated strata. I’ve never used tiers in fantasy baseball drafts because I think it tends to blind you to the nuances of each player and the specific needs your team might have. But now that the season has started, you should be all drafted up and it’s time to brand your cattle.
David Freese, a fantasy darling from a year ago, failed to replicate his breakout season in both real-life and fantasy terms. On the diamond, he declined offensively and defensively and dropped from a four-win player in 2012 to roughly replacement-level in 2013. And more importantly for fantasy baseball purposes, he essentially took a face-first plunge into the ocean this year with an anchor firmly tied to his waist, as he was barely a top-30 option at third base.
When guys like D.J. LeMahieu, Mike Aviles and merely 350 plate appearances of Aramis Ramirez proved more valuable, it’s abundantly clear that the fantasy production was sub-par. What makes his disappointing performance sting even more for fantasy owners is that he was drafted (on average) ahead of guys like Kyle Seager, Pedro Alvarez, Manny Machado and Matt Carpenter.
Value is paramount in fantasy baseball, and while David Freese wasn’t the worst value of the season — hello, Starlin Castro, Matt Kemp and B.J. Upton — he certainly performed well below expectations this season. His power dropped, his average barely eclipsed .260 and his overall counting statistics were underwhelming. Fantasy owners thought they were getting a high-average third baseman with 20+ homer power, and they received a crappy average and nine home runs. Brutal.
So, let’s not only figure out what happened, but also attempt to determine what this disappointing 2013 season means for David Freese going forward. Because, realistically, if this was merely a blip on the radar, he could be an intriguing sleeper on draft day this upcoming spring.
I love to gamble because almost nothing is more fun to me than watching a sporting event and caring about the outcome. I like it when something is at stake. That’s why I play fantasy baseball, and it’s why I’ve thoroughly enjoyed playing daily fantasy this season. But I do not like to lose money. This is of course an obvious thing to say. Who does? But I think it bothers me more than most.
I grew up with a very cheap father. Admittedly, we weren’t exactly rolling in dough as he was a high school choir director and my mom worked part-time at a church. But we were much better off than you would presume us to be if you ever saw us out at dinner, which was a very rare occasion. But if we did go out to eat, my dad would blurt out “four waters” before the server had the chance to finish saying, “What can I get you guys to dri…” This was always very embarrassing. I understood that a Dr. Pepper wasn’t an option unless it was my birthday and somewhat respected the reason for that edict. But he could have at least let me order my own water to save a modicum of my dignity. Read the rest of this entry »
Steve Saude has been looking at match up data to forecast strikeout rate. His posts are very advanced, somewhat confusing, and have lots of pretty graphs. You can read them here and here, and I suggest that you do. The main thing I took away was that batters and pitchers contribute equally to the outcome of his expected K% formula. Strikeouts are a big deal when picking daily pitchers, so we should be looking at how much the opposing team strikes out against pitchers of the same handedness to try and pick pitchers’ with high strikeout totals. We all look at a pitcher’s match up, but we should be looking at the K% of the opposing team in addition to their overall offensive performance. Below are each teams K% versus both left and right handed pitching along with their wRC+. Read the rest of this entry »
Yeah, I just used a Pat Benetar song for a post title. If that song was playing, I feel like I should be at the Skate Deck, tube socks pulled high, just praying Tracy Piercy would come over and say hi to me. I’ve hit rock bottom. And third basemen are entirely to blame for my condition.
I have third base as kind of my “beat” here at RotoGraphs. I’ve written a lot about third basemen for the last two seasons. I’ve grown quite fond of many of them. And this year, they’re breaking my heart.