Archive for Daniel Hudson

Bullpen Report: September 25, 2019

Saves had been scarce for the Nationals in September, but heading into Tuesday’s doubleheader against the Phillies, Daniel Hudson had both of the team’s saves this month. By the end of the twin bill, Hudson had doubled the Nationals’ saves total — and his own — for September by closing out both games of the sweep. Hudson tossed 1-2-3 innings in both games, even though he did not get a strikeout in either outing. That has been his norm this month, as he has pitched 8.2 inning while allowing three unearned runs on eight hits and a walk but with only three strikeouts. Hudson’s 4.8 percent SwStr% is the third-lowest among 209 qualified relievers in September.

Nonetheless, Davey Martinez says he trusts both Hudson and Sean Doolittle to take on high-leverage situations. Doolittle has been inconsistent in getting swings-and-misses since returning from right knee tendinitis earlier this month, but he has allowed one run over six innings over seven September appearances. He pitched a perfect eighth inning in the first game of Tuesday’s doubleheader, and Martinez said that he plans on using Doolittle and Hudson as his eighth and ninth inning relievers. It was not completely clear if Martinez meant that Doolittle would pitch the eighth and Hudson would get the ninth, but given their recent usage patterns, it seems safe to assume that those will be their respective roles over the season’s final five games.
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Bullpen Report: September 18, 2019

As Greg Jewett noted in Tuesday’s Bullpen Report, Felipe Vázquez was arrested on Tuesday morning. Subsequent to his arrest on charges of computer pornography, solicitation of a child and providing obscene material to a minor in Florida, the Pirates placed him on the restricted list. Vázquez is also facing charges in Pennsylvania for statutory sexual assault, unlawful contact with a minor, corruption of minors and indecent assault of a person less than 16 years old.

In pitching two scoreless innings to wind up the Nationals’ 6-2 win over the Cardinals on Tuesday night, Daniel Hudson collected his fourth save of the season. It was also the first save for any Nationals reliever since Aug. 16 and the team’s first ninth-inning save situation since Aug. 30. Hudson’s performance snapped a string of six consecutive blown saves by the Nationals’ bullpen. During the time since their last save, the Nationals’ relievers have collectively compiled a 5.49 ERA, which is the third-highest for any team over that period. Hudson (2.61 ERA) is the only Nationals reliever to pitch at least 10 innings over this stretch and post an ERA below 3.50.
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Bullpen Report: August 31, 2019

Entering game play on the final day of August, many bullpens will enter September fatigued. With rosters expanding on Sunday, reinforcements will arrive but some teams, it may be too little too late. As for last night, a 15 inning game between the Red Sox and Angels ended in Andrew Cashner’s 11th win. He worked four scoreless innings issuing two walks and striking out three. Brandon Workman entered his save chance last night with a 1.35 ERA his previous 13 appearances and an impressive 21 strikeouts against three walks. After stranding two inherited runners in the eighth inning, Workman returned for the ninth looking for his 10th save. However, Workman walked Brian Goodwin and Mike Trout before getting a fielder’s choice ground out. This left runners on the corners with one out. A single to left field, mishandled badly by J.D. Martinez allowed both runners to score. As of this writing, they both count as earned runs resulting in Workman’s sixth blown save. After the tying run scored, Workman intentionally walked Kole Calhoun before striking out David Fletcher. Then another intentional pass to Andrelton Simmons preceding an inning ending ground out by Matt Thaiss. Read the rest of this entry »


Building a Closer Through Outcomes

There are a sundry of middle/set-up relievers that can succeed in the closer role if given the opportunity. A few obvious: Wade Davis if something happens to Greg Holland… Wil Myers for James Shields and who?!; Ken Giles if the Phillies can somehow find a trade partner for the grundle-grabber; and Brad Boxberger if not Jake McGee. I assume David Robertson signs elsewhere and Dellin Betances steps in.

Lets’ look at potential closers using reliever outcomes. Here are the average contact and balls in play-related outcomes for all relievers that qualified and specifically relievers with 10+ saves:

Command: K% BB% K-BB% Ct% SwStr% Zn% F-Str%
AVG for RP w/ > 10 SV 0.27 0.07 0.19 0.75 0.12 0.46 0.63
SD for RP w/ > 10 SV 0.08 0.03 0.08 0.06 0.03 0.04 0.04
AVG for all qualified RP’s 0.22 0.09 0.14 0.77 0.11 0.45 0.60
SD for all qualified RP’s 0.07 0.03 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.05
Balls In Play: GB% FB% IFFB% GB/FB HR/FB LOB% BABIP
AVG for RP w/ > 10 SV 0.43 0.37 0.11 1.40 0.08 0.78 0.275
SD for RP w/ > 10 SV 0.11 0.10 0.04 1.02 0.05 0.08 0.042
AVG for all qualified RP’s 0.45 0.35 0.09 1.50 0.09 0.75 0.289
SD for all qualified RP’s 0.10 0.09 0.05 0.81 0.05 0.08 0.044

Our Filters: 

  • Contact-related outcomes: For K-BB%, Ct% and SwStr%, I filtered simply by the general relief pitcher averages. Everyone below average in these 3 categories was filtered out.
  • Command-related outcomes: For zone% and first-pitch-strike%, I used 1 standard deviation below average and 1.25 SD’s below average in BABIP as filters. 1.25 SD allowed me to omit only the relievers that had career BABIP’s higher than we would like to see for a closer or in general. I didn’t want to screen out Jenrry Mejia (1.24 SD below the mean) or Tim Stauffer (1.19 SD below), because there’s a possibility for BABIP regression.
  • Balls In Play-related outcomes: I was lax on the balls in play outcomes. I went with a 40% Grounder rate and 45% Flyball rate as my filters versus the averages that you see above because below average fly-rates don’t mean much in places like Tampa (where Boxberger is elite but below average in fly-rates); and above average grounder-rates don’t mean as much with atrocious defense behind you (hence Corey Kluber’s unlucky BABIP, which should have been closer to .299 per end-of-season xBABIP/Inside Edge data), but I digress.

Using these filters, we’re left with a robust list of above-average relievers beyond just closers (scroll down for the noted filters):

What happens if we use the command (K-BB%)/contact (Ct% and SwStr%) related averages for relievers with more than 10 saves this year? 

…We’re left with some elite closers and then a few interesting names.

Last year, Danny Farquhar (just missed the list this year) had a top 20 swinging-strike rate – about a percent better than Fernando Rodney, but it was masked by his BABIP and left-on-base rate that killed his surface stats (4.20 ERA vs. 2.40 xFIP). This year, he actually outperformed his xFIP with a 2.66 ERA. After an early season MASH Report on Rodney’s velocity, I eyed Farquhar. At least keep him in mind next year if anything does happen to Rodney.

Josh Edgin (Mets for those of you that don’t know) has a top 65 contact-rate sandwiched between Mark Melancon and Jake McGee and even induced grounders 50% of the time. He has a pretty extensive repertoire as well. In order of usage: Fourseamer, Slider, Curve, Change, Cutter and Sinker. According to his Brooks Player Card, he has great swing and miss rates on his Curve (>56%), Cutter (50%), Slider (>42%) and Sinker (33%). Even his Change approaches 30%. This isn’t the case on his Fastball, but at 93+ MPH, it induces a decent amount of grounders (1.8 GB/FB). Keep in mind he had late-season elbow issues which effected his velocity by a MPH or so, but he could be called upon to get Mejia out of a jam. I like him better than an unhealthy Bobby Parnell and Jeurys Familia from a command perspective for another year.

Zach Duke did his best Craig Kimbrel impression prior to the R2M monster hitting him in August. Prior to 8/1, Duke had a 34.9% K-rate and 27.3 K-BB%. Kimbrel ended the year with a 38.9% K-rate and 28.3 K-BB%. I think August and September brought him back to his realistic value (~2.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). It will be interesting to see who closes for the Brewers if they let Francisco Rodriguez go. Both Duke and Will Smith have above average (even for RP w/ 10+ saves) swing-and-miss. Will Smith should have additional command next year, but Zack Duke induces grounders better which I like in my closers/in Milwaukee. They also have Jonathan Broxton. The hierarchy seemed to be K-rod-Broxton-Smith late last season. If that’s the case, they should use Duke more (former starter) and in higher leverage situations. He was equally solid against both lefties (.258 wOBA) and righties (.262 wOBA).

Oliver Perez everybody! I thought I could filter him out by his splits being a lefty, but like 2012, he was more effective vs. righties (and faced 44 more of them). The D-backs have Addison Reed, up-and-comer Evan Marshall as well as Daniel Hudson caught touching 97 MPH so if not by outcomes or splits, we can filter Perez out by opportunity.

Darren O’Day and Andrew Miller is part of one dominating Baltimore bullpen – one that gets referenced by anyone who thinks the Orioles can beat the Tigers in the ALDS. Notice that Zach Britton didn’t make either of the above lists! He was filtered out by his below average K-BB% (13.70%). It’s his 75+% grounder rate (hence the 81+% left-on-base rate and .215 BABIP) that keeps him elite in Baltimore. The only concern you can have with O’Day is a fastball velocity almost 2 standard deviations below the mean for relievers, but his arm angle combined with that slider still induces a 30+% whiff-rate on both pitches. Miller’s slider though is a world apart from O’Day’s: only Pedro Strop, Will Smith, Jake Diekman, Greg Holland and Oliver Perez induces more whiffs than Miller’s 55% according to Baseball Prospectus’ Pitchf/x Leaderboards.  I doubt we’ll see a closer-transition next year in Baltimore unless Britton’s GB/FB ratio takes a drastic dive because his HR/FB ratio, which approached 18%, could be an issue.

An xBABIP review

On the last day of the season, @jeffwzimmerman provided me with Pitch xBABIP based on inside edge data. Let’s look at some of the bigger xBABIP differentials to keep in mind:

The last column depicts the z-score for BABIP differential. Francisco Rodriguez was expected to have a BABIP about 120 points above his actual BABIP. I highlighted (red/bad; green/good) the xBABIP z-scores as well so that you know whether or not to actually be concerned meaning sure Aaron Sanchez has the 5th biggest BABIP differential (over 2 standard deviations from the mean), but a .239 xBABIP is still utterly elite (3.34 SD’s from the mean). On the other side of the equation, it’s nice to see Evan Marshall, Carlos Martinez and Adam Ottavino (albeit in Colorado) with large BABIP differentials. Marshall and Martinez even have xBABIP’s over .5SD from the mean.

The last bit of fun

It was a very fun year to be doing bullpen reports for RotoGraphs. Aroldis Chapman broke the single-season strikeout rate of 2012 Craig Kimbrel (50.2%). He struck out 52.5% of the hitters he faced. Andrew Miller (42.6%) and Brad Boxberger (42.1%) also made the top 10 seasons ever. Dellin Betances (39.6%), Wade Davis (39.1%) and Craig Kimbrel (38.9%) made the top 20. Chapman’s swinging-strike% of 20% beat ’12 Kimbrel by .8%, but he couldn’t pass ’04 Lidge, ’03 Gagne, ’04 Gagne, ’02 Gagne or ’05 Lidge. Chapman, Miller, Doolittle, Boxberger, Betances (Wade Davis and Kenley Jansen close behind) all had historical, top 20 K-BB rates. Relievers dominate this list: only ’99 Pedro Martinez (#12), ’00 Pedro Martinez (#21), ’01 Randy Johnson (#27) and ’01 Pedro Martinez (#28) make it into the top 30, but it’s clear that we have a growing list of elite relievers.

From a fantasy perspective, thanks to 45+ saves totals out of Holland and Kimbrel, we had two relievers ranked in the top 20 pitchers. If Chapman didn’t miss time and Betances and Davis consumed the closer role, we would have had 3 others. Last year, Craig Kimbrel and his 4 wins, 50 saves, 98 SO’s, 1.21 ERA and .88 WHIP campaign made him the 3rd most valuable pitcher. This year with Kershaw, Cueto, Felix and Kluber, it would have taken even more.

If we combined the 3 more dominating performances exclusive of saves this year: Aroldis Chapman’s K-rate (52.5%) and saves total (36), Dellin Betances IP (90) – who was dominating in his own right, Wade Davis’ ERA (1.00) and Wins total (9) and Sean Doolittle’s WHIP (.73) – let’s call this guy Aroldellin Dooldavis, we would wind up with a 10.95 z-sum…just above Corey Kluber (10.72), but under Clayton Kershaw (13.74), Johnny Cueto (12.95) and Felix Hernandez (12.50). Even 50 saves wouldn’t have done the trick (12.43 z-sum):

Name Age IP WHIP zWHIP ERA zERA W zW SO zSO SV zSV 5×5
Clayton Kershaw 26 198.1 0.86 4.23 1.77 3.53 21 3.38 239 2.95 0 -0.34 13.74
Johnny Cueto 28 243.2 0.96 3.91 2.25 3.22 20 3.16 242 3.01 0 -0.34 12.95
Felix Hernandez 28 236 0.92 4.29 2.14 3.37 15 2.06 248 3.12 0 -0.34 12.50
Aroldellin DoolDavis 25 90 0.73 2.50 1 2.25 9 0.74 177 1.77 50 5.17 12.43
Corey Kluber 28 235.2 1.09 2.14 2.44 2.69 18 2.72 269 3.52 0 -0.34 10.73
Adam Wainwright 32 227 1.03 2.79 2.38 2.72 20 3.16 179 1.80 0 -0.34 10.13
Jon Lester 30 219.2 1.1 1.88 2.46 2.46 16 2.28 220 2.59 0 -0.34 8.86
David Price 28 248.1 1.08 2.40 3.26 0.89 15 2.06 271 3.56 0 -0.34 8.56
Chris Sale 25 174 0.97 2.68 2.17 2.43 12 1.40 208 2.36 0 -0.34 8.52
Madison Bumgarner 24 217.1 1.09 1.97 2.98 1.35 18 2.72 219 2.57 0 -0.34 8.27
Zack Greinke 30 202.1 1.15 1.18 2.71 1.78 17 2.50 207 2.34 0 -0.34 7.46
Max Scherzer 29 220.1 1.18 0.94 3.19 0.93 18 2.72 252 3.20 0 -0.34 7.45
Jordan Zimmermann 28 199.2 1.07 2.02 2.66 1.85 14 1.84 182 1.86 0 -0.34 7.22
Julio Teheran 23 221 1.08 2.13 2.89 1.57 14 1.84 186 1.94 0 -0.34 7.13
Stephen Strasburg 25 215 1.12 1.61 3.14 1.01 14 1.84 242 3.01 0 -0.34 7.12
Garrett Richards 26 168.2 1.04 1.96 2.61 1.64 13 1.62 164 1.52 0 -0.34 6.39
Greg Holland 28 62.1 0.91 1.11 1.44 1.28 1 -1.02 90 0.10 46 4.73 6.21
Craig Kimbrel 26 61.2 0.91 1.09 1.61 1.16 0 -1.24 95 0.20 47 4.84 6.06

 


What to Expect When You’re Expecting Strikeouts

I tend to get rather obsessed about starting pitchers, strikeouts, and predictability – three things that go together like Tracy Morgan, funny stuff, and sanity. What keeps me up at night, and what I find particularly unnerving are sizable, unexplained variations from year to year. Why did Jhoulys Chacin go from 9.04 strikeouts per nine innings pitched in 2010 to 6.96 in 2011? Why did Ricky Nolasco go from 8.39 K/9 to 6.47? Jered Weaver from 9.35 to 7.56? When obvious indicators of age or injury aren’t there, the resulting chaos has me reaching for torches and pitchforks.

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Two-Start-Pitchers: Week 19

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 19.

Brett Cecil – In his last six games, Cecil has thrown a Quality Start five times. The main thing holding him down right now is his propensity for the long ball, as he’s allowed 10 HR in 70.1 IP this year for Toronto. But this week he has home starts against OAK and ANA, two teams below average in hitting HR. ANA could give him some trouble, as their top three HR threats have combined for 40 HR and all three bat righty. All 10 of Cecil’s HR this year have been served up to RH batters. But the matchup against OAK looks good and Cecil is a guy you can likely pluck off the waiver wire and stream this week.

Matt Garza – In 21 starts this year, Garza has managed just 5 Wins. But he has an outstanding 9.02 K/9 and a respectable 3.78 ERA. His peripherals are even better, as Garza has a 3.14 xFIP, which is tied for the 10th-best mark among qualified hurlers. He’s been pitching well lately, with six Quality Starts in his last eight games. He’s been very good at home, where he squares off this week against WSN. Garza does have a road start against ATL, but the Braves have scored just 37 runs in their last 12 games. Keep Garza active this week.

Matt Harrison – The matchups are favorable for Harrison this week as he faces SEA and OAK. He’s also been pitching extremely well over his last 15 games, with a 2.57 ERA in that span. Wins have been hard to come by for Harrison this year, but he picked up a victory in three of his last four decisions over his last five starts. Get him into your lineup this week.

Daniel Hudson – Since being acquired from the White Sox last year at the trade deadline, Hudson has 17 starts at Chase Field and he is 9-4 with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.035 WHIP. This week he has home starts against the Astros and Mets, two teams that have made trades with an eye on the future which have limited their offensive firepower this season. Make sure that Hudson is active this week.

Justin Masterson – It has been a streaky season for Masterson, who started off 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA after seven starts. He then proceeded to go 0-6 in his next nine games. But Masterson is back on track since the beginning of July. He had six stars in the month and went 3-1 with a 1.58 ERA. Masterson still struggles against LHB but faces the Twins, who are playing without Justin Morneau. His other matchup is against the Tigers, which should be a little more difficult, but in two starts against Detroit this season he’s allowed 4 ER in 13.1 IP for a 2.70 ERA. He should be in your lineup this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 19 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, Haren, Shields, Marcum, Vogelsong, Baker, Stuaffer, W. Rodriguez, Kuroda, Jackson, Floyd, Fister, Lowe, Humber, Harden Marquis, Bailey, Pelfrey, Capuano, Morton, Guthrie, Willis, Hochevar, Britton, Hammel, Francis, Lyles, Rogers, Furbush, Hand, Wang.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers
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Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 17 pitchers and how they fared.

R. De La Rosa – Advised to start. W, 11 Ks, 3.60 ERA, 1.600 WHIP, 10 IP, 4 ER
F. Garcia – Advised to start. 2 W, 11 Ks, 3.29 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, 17.2 IP, 5 ER
Karstens – Advised to sit. 8 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 12 IP, 6 ER
Narveson – Advised to start. W, 7 Ks, 3.86 ERA, 1.371 WHIP, 11.2 IP, 5 ER
Pavano – Advised to sit. 2 Ks, 15.00 ERA, 2.444 WHIP, 9.0 IP, 15 ER


Two-Start Pitchers: Week 4

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 4.

A.J. Burnett – Despite being in the majors since 1999, Burnett has not thrown more than 39 games to any one catcher. He has 12 catchers who have caught at least 10 games of his in the majors. By far the worst of those was Jorge Posada, with whom Burnett had a 5.61 ERA. Russell Martin has caught all four starts by Burnett this year and he has a 3-0 record. Burnett’s ERA this year is an unimpressive 4.37 but he’s had some trouble with the gopher ball, as his xFIP checks in at 3.89. With two home starts this week, make sure Burnett is active.

Kyle Drabek – After opening the season with three straight strong starts, Drabek was knocked around (5.1 IP, 4 ER) in his last outing. This week he has road starts in Texas and New York, a tough go for anyone, much less a rookie. Drabek has a 5.63 BB/9 and has allowed 8 BB in his last 11 IP. The Rangers and Yankees are in the top four in the American League in runs scored and no pitcher can survive putting extra runners on base against those offenses. Move Drabek to the bench this week.

Matt Harrison – Shoulder injuries the past two seasons have kept Harrison from throwing many innings. A lack of success versus RHB has led to ERAs of 6.11 and 4.71, respectively, the past two years. But Harrison is healthy now and a new pitching approach has led to a very strong start. Last year, Harrison threw a slider 15 percent of the time and it was his worst offering, with a Pitch Type Value of -3.7, the worst of his four pitches. This year, he is throwing fewer sliders (8.5%) and more changeups (18%) and the results have been impressive. RHB have a .147/.238/.267 slash line in 86 PA this year. Last year RHB posted a .770 OPS against him. While his 1.88 ERA will undoubtedly go up, Harrison’s xFIP of 3.85 is nearly a run lower than his lifetime mark. Keep putting Harrison into your lineup.

Daniel Hudson – One of the early leaders in the biggest positive spread between his ERA (5.92) and his FIP (3.55), Hudson has been victimized this year by two things: a very low LOB% (53.0) and a high BB/9 (4.44). Last year Hudson had a 2.55 BB/9, so he is certainly capable of throwing more strikes. This week he squares off against the Phillies and Cubs, two teams that are below average in drawing walks. The Phillies are tied for 12th while the Cubs are 14th. Look for Hudson to break into the win column this week and keep him active.

Justin Masterson – Previously, Masterson has been a pitcher whose peripherals were much better than his actual results. But this year he has a 1.71 ERA and a 4.06 xFIP. His lifetime xFIP is 4.00 so Masterson is pitching like he normally does but is just having much better results. A .256 BABIP without allowing a HR helps explain the difference. Masterson’s early success is unlikely to last all season. He still is murder on RHB while he struggles versus LHB. He goes up against the Royals and Tigers, who can stack their lineup with lefties. Give Masterson the week off if you can.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 4 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lee, Weaver, Cain, G. Gonzalez, J. Garcia, Nolasco, Buchholz, Lowe, Lewis, Garza, Floyd, Arroyo, Kennedy, Britton, Zimmermann, Narveson, Davis, Norris, Dickey, Hochevar, Rogers, Coke, Colon, Bedard, Blackburn, Morton, Garland, Moseley, Humber, Russell.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 2 pitchers and how they fared.

Buehrle – Advised to start. 6 Ks, 2.40 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 4 ER, 15 IP
Correia – Advised to sit. 1 K, 6.00 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 4 ER, 6 IP
Dempster – Advised to sit. W, 13 Ks, 7.15 ERA, 1.589 WHIP, 9 ER, 11.1 IP
McClellan – Advised to start. 2 W, 6 Ks, 1.39 ERA, 1.308 WHIP, 2 ER, 13 IP
Rogers – Advised to start. W, 2 Ks, 4.78 ERA, 1.941 WHIP, 3 ER, 5.2 IP


Breaking Down Dan Hudson

Since the summer of 2008, righty Daniel Hudson has navigated his way from fifth-round draft pick to ace of the Arizona Diamondbacks’ staff (though Ian Kennedy might quibble with that designation). Granted, in a post-Dan Haren rotation that may include the likes of Joe Saunders, Zach Duke and Armando Galarraga, that’s like saying "fastest Molina brother" or "smartest Kardashian." But after the D-Backs acquired Hudson from the White Sox at last year's trade deadline, the Old Dominion product dominated.

Entering 2011, Hudson has fantasy helium — according to MockDraftCentral, he ranks 34th among starting pitchers and 130th overall in Average Draft Position (ADP), placing him alongside pitchers such as Wandy Rodriguez, Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero and Brett Anderson. How good can Hudson be? Let’s break it down.

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Daniel Hudson and Upside

When the Arizona Diamondbacks received Daniel Hudson from the White Sox in exchange for Edwin Jackson, there were questions about Daniel Hudson major league future, namely about his potential. We knew what he could do in the minors, but needed an extended major league stint to truly value his long-term value.

From a less nerdy, and more scouty perspective, Hudson has a very low arm-angle when he pitches, especially for someone who stands 6’4”. While it’s not what I would recommend, it could be one of the reasons he fools hitters. His fastball sits at 92 mph, and he compliments it with a changeup that has some nice arm-side run. In fact, if he qualified, it would be the best change in baseball, thanks to a nice 26% whiff rate.

One of the biggest concerns surrounding Hudson was his extreme fly ball tendencies. While his tiny GB% will help his BABIP thanks to Arizona’s impressive outfield defense, it will lead to allowing more homers, a problem that while manageable, could be a big deal because of where he plays.

It really doesn’t matter what you look at, Hudson has been fantastic this year. He’s striking out almost a batter an inning, limiting the walks, and going deep into games. Sure, he’s had some luck on his side, but you can’t ask for much more from a pitchers who only 23. But we still haven’t answered the essential question: What’s his potential, and what’s his keeper value?

Like I said in Friday’s chat, I don’t think Hudson can be an Ace. However, he can be a good number two or three starter on a good team, and he’s a guy you will want pitching in the playoffs. While he’ll never have an ERA as low as it is now, he could easily win 12-15 games with an ERA under 3.50 as early as next season. Because he wasn’t drafted early this year, he has fantastic keeper value going into next year. He won’t be cheap in drafts, but if you already have him on your roster, keep him there as long as possible.


Week 24 Two-Start Pitchers

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 24. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

R.A. Dickey – Those who have waited all year for Dickey to turn back into a pumpkin have been disappointed. After a bad start against the Cubs in Wrigley, Dickey rebounded to post his 16th Quality Start of the year in his last outing. He gets two home starts this week. Dickey is 6-1 with a 1.85 ERA in Citi Field this year. Make sure he is active.

Barry Enright – Normally a K rate under 5.00 and a LOB% of 86.9 percent is something to run away from screaming. But at this point of the year when fantasy owners are jockeying for a money spot, you have to ride the hot hand. Enright has two road starts this week and this year away from Chase Field he is 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA in five starts. A small sample for sure, but he also gets to face a struggling Bronson Arroyo and the Pirates. Get him in your lineup.

Jon Garland – All season long Garland has been a pretty good pitcher at home and only so-so on the road. But in his last three games, all in Petco, Garland is 0-3 with a 6.19 ERA. This week he has road starts in Colorado and in St. Louis against Adam Wainwright. This looks like a good week to put Garland on the bench.

Daniel Hudson – In eight games for the Diamondbacks, Hudson has turned in eight Quality Starts. The FB% is still higher than one might hope for, but Hudson does have 20.3 IFFB% in the National League. His strikeouts have been up and down with the Diamondbacks, but Hudson has given owners strong ERA, Wins and WHIP numbers. Ride the hot hand and have Hudson as a starter this week.

Chris Narveson – The overall numbers look ugly but Narveson is on a nice little hot streak recently. In his last seven games, he is 3-0 with a 3.38 ERA. Narveson has 35 Ks and 12 BB in his last 40 IP. After struggling with the gopher ball earlier in the year, Narveson has allowed just 3 HR in his last seven games and this week faces the Giants and Astros, with the latter team having hit the fewest HR in the National League this year. Get Narveson active this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 24 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Lester, Wainwright, Price, Liriano, Kershaw, Myers, J. Garcia, Danks, Arroyo, Matsuzaka, Zito, Lowe, Blanton, Duensing, Wood, Fister, Kazmir, Silva, McDonald, Duke, Maya, Francis, Luebke, Gee, Tomlin, Hochevar, A. Miller.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 22 pitchers and how they fared.

de la Rosa – Advised to sit. W, 2.08 ERA, 13 Ks, 1.231 WHIP (2 starts)
Duensing – Advised to start. W, 1.04 ERA, 2 Ks, 1.731 WHIP (2)
Happ – Advised to sit. 2 W, 1.13 ERA, 11 Ks, 0.688 WHIP (2)
Wolf – Advised to start. W, 3.68 ERA, 5 Ks, 1.886 WHIP (2)
Zambrano – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.46 ERA, 15 Ks, 1.135 WHIP (2)