Archive for daniel bard

When was the last time you saw a single position in fantasy take such a beating before the season even gets underway?  First there was the sudden change to Brett Myers in Houston.  Then Joakim Soria and Ryan Madson headed for the DL, each in need of Tommy John surgery.  Then Drew Storen had elbow issues and Frank Francisco needed his knee drained.  It’s been a disaster, right?

Well, now it gets worse as Andrew Bailey heads to the shelf for three to four months with thumb surgery and Kyle Farnsworth lands on the DL with elbow soreness.  The waiver wire has been a hotbed of action for the last few weeks and it’s getting even hotter with these next two guys…

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The Boston Red Sox picked up a Jonathan Papelbon replacement on Wednesday, acquiring Andrew Bailey (and Ryan Sweeney) from the Oakland A’s for Josh Reddick and prospects Raul Alcantara and Miles Head. The five-player swap has plenty of fantasy implications for both Boston and Oakland, so let’s briefly break down the big storylines.

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In 2011, Jonathan Papelbon was entering the last year of his contract with the Boston Red Sox without the two sides managing to work out an extension to keep him as closer for the future. It wasn’t cemented that Papelbon was gone, but there was a good deal of speculation that Daniel Bard was the heir apparent to the fireman’s role as he was coming off a dominant 2010 campaign.

When Papelbon recently signed with the Philadelphia Phillies, many assumed that the Boston brass would summarily anoint Bard as closer and move on to more pressing issues in the starting rotation and trying to find a right fielder, but there was no such announcement. In fact, when Daniel Bard’s name was brought up, it was mentioned that while he may be a candidate for the closer role, he might also stay in his familiar set-up job, or they just might try him out as a starter.

The starting role possibility was news to me, and and in looking at his minor league starts, it turns out there’s a pretty good reason why. Daniel Bard was a terrible minor league starting pitcher.

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All this week, I’ve been looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some relief pitchers.

David Aardsma
Everyone expected Aardsma to regress this year, and his ADP reflected it. While he did do some regressing, he still has quite a bit in front of him. He gave up less fly balls this year, yet his BABIP dropped even lower. He still saved owners 31 games, but he didn’t even come close to touching last year’s value.
Crude 2011 Projection: 3.60 ERA, 5 saves, 8.5 K/9, 4.3 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. The reduced number of saves is because I think he’ll be traded by the Mariners shortly after the offseason begins.

Matt Capps
The Nationals made a great decision this offseason, bringing Matt Capps in to be their closer. They ended up getting a solid prospect for him, and the Twins will be relying on him during this postseason. With Joe Nathan coming back, will the Twins send Capps packing, or will they keep him as insurance?
Crude 2011 Projection: 2.85 ERA, 10 saves, 7.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. While he’s a good pitcher, he’s not guarenteed to get saves next year. Play a wait and see approach with all of the Twins’ relievers.

Jonathan Broxton
Broxton was completely dominant during the first half of the year. He didn’t give up an earned run in April, and had a FIP of 0.19 during that month. 0.19! Something happened in the second half, though, and Broxton began to walk too many batters. The Dodgers lost all confidence in him, and he lost his job as the closer.
Crude 2011 Projection: 2.75 ERA, 30 saves, 11.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I don’t think he’ll slip in drafts, and he should be an elite player next season.

Daniel Bard
Bard didn’t pitch quite as well as expected, but he still did pretty well for himself. His value will all come down to Papelbon. Will he stay or will he go?
Crude 2011 Projection: 2.60 ERA, 27 saves, 9.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I think Papelbon gets traded, but the Red Sox bring in a veteran or two to keep Bard on his toes.

Drew Storen
As soon as he was drafted, Storen was labeled the Nationals “closer of the future.” The Nationals had him put his work in for the minor league affiliates, and then gave him some chances once Matt Capps was traded. With a full season in the organization under his belt, will the Nationals turn over the ball to Storen in the ninth inning?
Crude 2011 Projection: 3.33 ERA, 20 saves, 9.0 K/9, 3.5 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. Like Bard, I think he becomes the closer but loses some opps to a veteran presence.

If you have a relief pitcher you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

The Boston Red Sox pitching depth is just getting ridiculous. This past off-season, I took a look at the incredible number of starting pitchers that the organization has that are ready to pitch in the Majors (which includes Michael Bowden, who is currently dealing in triple-A).

That depth is now starting to spill over into the bullpen. The club recently recalled Daniel Bard from triple-A. The right-hander is arguably the top relief prospect in all of baseball. Bard’s emergence is truly impressive, considering he all but flamed out in 2007 while pitching in high-A ball as a starter at one of best hitter’s parks (and leagues) in professional baseball. He posted a walk rate of 14.85 BB/9 in 13.1 innings and allowed 21 hits. His ERA was 10.13. The now-23-year-old hurler was demoted down to low-A that year where he posted a 6.42 ERA in 61.2 innings.

Moved to the bullpen in 2008, Bard improved his walk rate to 1.29 in low-A ball, with a strikeout rate of 13.82 K/9, and then skipped over high-A and dominated double-A with rates of 4.71 BB/9 and 11.60 K/9. At triple-A in 2009, he posted rates of 2.81 BB/9 and 16.31 K/9 in 16 innings of work. Bard allowed just six hits. His control is still iffy so there is room for improvement (which is a little scary to consider) and his mid-to-high-90s fastball is by far his best pitch, although the slider has improved a lot.

Now in the Red Sox bullpen, Bard will likely be used in low leverage situations (Thanks to the presence of Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez and even Takashi Saito) and his previous experience as a starter will come in handy if the club needs to use him for two or three innings. There is no doubt, though, that he will be the club’s set-up man in the near future, as long as the improvements in his control hold (or improve). When Jonathan Papelbon’s time as closer expires for the Red Sox, Bard should be ready to assume that role as well.

With his high strikeout totals and dominating stuff, Bard will no doubt be of great value to fantasy baseball owners in the not-too-distant future. Just be patient.

Every Thursday throughout the regular season, we’re going to take a look at the some of the players hackin’ and chuckin’ away in Minor League Baseball who have a good chance of making an impact at the MLB level in 2009. With that said, let’s get this party started.

Matt LaPorta: The Cleveland Indians might be tempted to shake things up with the club stuck in last place in the AL Central. He could fill a role at either left field, first base or designated hitter. The club is actually hitting fairly well right now and Travis Hafner is having an early-season resurgence, so he’s not going anywhere. The player most likely to lose a roster spot to LaPorta would appear to be left fielder Ben Francisco (.220/.304/.366). The former Brewers prospect is currently hitting .362/.423/.660 in 47 Triple-A at-bats.

Eric Young Jr.: Infielders Jeff Baker (.111 AVG) and Omar Quintanilla (.143) are both struggling for the Rockies and Young Jr. is continuing the hot hitting that he displayed last season. At Triple-A, the son of former Rockies’ second baseman Eric Young Sr., is hitting .298/.313/.340 with nine stolen bases in 10 attempts. His lack of walks (He has zero) hurts his overall value, but he could be a source of cheap steals (87 SB is his MiLB career high) and he would provide more defensive flexibility than Baker.

Andrew McCutchen: Nyjer Morgan is going to have to keep playing like his pants are on fire to keep this former first round draft pick in the minors. The Pirates, though, could get cute and play the center fielder out of position to make room for him. Neither Brandon Moss nor Craig Monroe are hitting that well. Delwyn Young was also brought in recently from Los Angeles, but his defense will not wow anyone. McCutchen, on the other hand, is a gifted outfielder who is currently hitting .315/.373/.630 with five triples and three steals in 54 at-bats.

Bobby Wilson: The Angels have two pretty good young catchers on the MLB roster already, but the organization also has one of the best No. 3 catchers around… and Wilson is stuck playing in Triple-A until an injury occurs. If an opportunity presents itself, though, Wilson could be a valuable addition for fantasy league managers. Along with being a solid defensive catcher (which doesn’t help in most fantasy scenarios), he’s never hit below .268 in the minors leagues and he’s currently batting .346 in 26 at-bats after managing a .312 average at the same level last season. Wilson also has three home runs.

Daniel Bard: With an already-dominating bullpen, Boston could get even more scary with the addition of Bard. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, he’s not likely to get involved in many impact scenarios (ie. saves) due to the depth in front of him in the big league pen. He could, though, earned some vulture saves while piling up Ks. So far in Triple-A, Bard has allowed just one hit and three walks in nine innings. He’s struck out more than half (16) of the 27 batters he’s retired.

David Huff: With veterans Fausto Carmona and Carl Pavano struggling, Cleveland may need to dip down into the minors yet again for some pitching help. With Aaron Laffey having already been promoted, Huff could be the next Triple-A starter to get the call. He has a 3.94 ERA through three starts and has allowed 14 hits and seven walks in 16 innings. The left-hander has also struck out 12 batters. Another player to keep an eye on is Hector Rondon, who is one of the fastest rising prospects in the game. He’s currently at Double-A with a 1.10 ERA through three starts.

Jess Todd: Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa is not know for his patience with young pitching. If Jason Motte continues to struggle into the beginning of May, Todd may get his opportunity to shine in the St. Louis bullpen. The former second round draft pick out of the University of Arkansas has had little trouble with pro hitters and he currently has 12 strikeouts in 9.1 Triple-A innings. He’s also allowed just five hits. Right-handed hitters are batting just .120 against him.

David Price: It’s not 2008 anymore and the Rays are currently stuck in last place in the AL East. The organization may live to regret not going with its best 25-man roster, which would have included Price, right from the get-go. The left-hander has been solid – but not dominating – at Triple-A with a 2.63 ERA in three starts. He’s allowed 10 hits and four walks, with 15 Ks, in 13.2 innings of work. MLB starters Jeff Niemann and Andy Sonnanstine are a combined 1-4 with ERAs above 5.40.