Archive for Daily Fantasy Strategy

Full schedule, and then some, today. The Rays and Orioles have a day-night doubleheader, so both probables are list below, in case the order they pitch in changes. Let’s get into it.

Also, go USMNT. Always and forever.

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Way back in middle school I vividly remember Nelly’s “Country Grammar” being released. On this date 14 years ago the album was debuted and I was all about it. The track “Ride Wit Me” (warning: language) is something I have mostly memorized to this day.

On today’s agenda:
1. Welcome back, Wilson Ramos
2. A strong outing from Ryan Vogelsong
3. Mike Leake’s even better start
4. Bad news for Tony Cingrani
5. The daily five

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Finally, we have a little day baseball today. Four day games, to be exact. In one of those games, Marco Gonzales will be making his major league debut. In Coors Field, of all places. Luckily for Gonzazles, his best secondary offering is a change-up. That’s huge considering breaking balls don’t work quite as well in Colorado’s thin air.

Utilizing his change-up, fastball, and command, Gonzales has produced admirably while shooting through the Cardinals’ minor league system. He’ll make his major league debut after being drafted in the first round of last year’s draft. Gonzales was projected to move quickly, and he has; striking out 28.8% of the Double-A batters he’s faced in 38.2 innings at the level since being promoted.

I’m a fan of change-ups, therefore, I’m a fan of Gonzales. His fantasy impact seems a little iffy right now, though. For one, we’re not sure how long he’ll be up. Secondly, his first two starts will be in Colorado and then versus the Dodgers. Those two games aren’t easy tests. Then again, this game, especially at the major league level, isn’t supposed to be.

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Last season, Jeff Locke became, in some ways, a whipping boy for regression. He made the All-Star team thanks to a stellar 2.15 ERA and, undoubtedly, eight wins. Regression seemed to be on the horizon, and it was. His command was iffy at best, and he didn’t miss enough bats to make up for that. And then, the bottom fell out. Locke posted a 6.12 ERA over his last 12 starts. He was optioned to the minors and began his 2014 there, as well.

Jeff Locke is back, but he hasn’t looked much like the old one so far. He’s only thrown 26.1 innings in the majors thus far, so we’re dealing with an extremely small sample. Nonetheless, Locke has walked 2 batters. His 2% walk rate is nearly a 10% improvement over last year’s. In 2013, Locke threw a first pitch strike 58.5% of the time; he’s at 64% this year. His zone% last year was 41%; it’s 52.2% so far.

The most encouraging thing, though, about Locke’s early success is his swinging strike rate. Currently, his swSTR% is 12%, nearly a 4% increase over his 2012 and 2013 stints. He’s been able to generate those whiffs due to his change-up, which has a 31.3% swinging strike rate in 83 pitches. Locke’s change-up is, without question, his best weapon. He knows it, so he’s upped its usage over 9 points to 25.6%.

Locke isn’t an ace, but he looks improved. Much of this could be noise, but it’s hard to fake a 31.3% whiff rate on your change-up. Watch Locke closely going forward. If his command holds up, he could have a little something.

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Exactly 27 years ago today the genius known as Mel Brooks unleashed the film “Spaceballs.” To boil a masterpiece such as that down to a single scene is impossible, but the trailer does a solid job. Okay, and the ludicrous speed scene. And the “When will then be now?” clip. You know, just go watch the entire film; it’s on Netflix.

On today’s agenda:
1. Thoughts on Everth Cabrera
2. Brett Lawrie to miss 3-6 weeks
3. The return of Travis d’Arnaud
4. The daily five

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After a nice first two months of the season, June is killing me. Much of the gains I made early in the year have been given back over the last three weeks. My double up success rate has deteriorated, and I’ve hardly sniffed a cash in GPPs. I’m frustrated, but I have to fight the urge to mail it in. I’ve still had success on the whole, even if I haven’t been able to continue to multiply my bankroll like I had hoped.

I can’t be the only one feeling like this. If you’re on a bad run, I encourage you to stick with it. I’m hoping things improve as the season drags on and the data I use on a daily basis becomes more reliable. Each year I compete in the FantasyPros.com weekly football ranking contest, and I have performed much better in the second half of the season in each of the last three years. I attribute this to the data I use simply being more reliable as the season goes on. My approach to baseball DFS is almost as dependent on data, and it stands to reason that as it gets more reliable, my performance will improve. At least that’s what I’m telling myself.

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Thirty years ago today the film “The Karate Kid” was released. I’ll admit I haven’t seen the remake, but I have a hard time believing it could possibly have a better montage than the original. I mean, it was the best around.

On today’s agenda:
1. A strong outing from Mike Leake
2. J.J. Hardy hits a home run
3. Joc Pederson watch
4. The daily five

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And the weekend finally arrives. All of the weekend’s series started yesterday, but we were a little preoccupied with Clayton Kershaw to acknowledge that. The Braves and the Nationals are in a dead heat in the NL East, currently. The Orioles-Yankees series has some standings implications. As does the Indians-Tigers. Given the Royals’ recent run, that series is especially interesting.

We’re at a point in the season where things are fluid. Standings can change on a whim, but the series seem to start meaning a little more. The Red Sox are one of the teams that needs to begin making up ground. They’re 6.5 back as of Friday, after a loss to Oakland on Thursday, in the first game of a four game series. While Boston is trying to gain ground, Toronto will be facing off with divisional foe, Baltimore.

On the other coast, the Giants’ slide has helped the Dodgers make up ground, dropping the difference between the teams to 4 games, as of Friday afternoon. Best of all, for LA, they’re facing an anemic Padres squad this weekend. With good play and a little luck, the Dodgers deficit could be trimmed even further.

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Today’s Roto Riteup is unofficially brought to you by Modest Mouse and their album “Good News For People Who Love Bad News.” I’m currently listening to this record for the first time in a few years and it still holds up. When I sat down “Bukowski” (warning: language) began to play and I urge you to listen to it.

On today’s agenda:
1. Carlos Martinez to start tomorrow
2. Corey Dickerson fills up the stat sheet
3. A demotion for Tony Cingrani
4. Kris Bryant watch
5. The daily five

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Clayton Kershaw was fantastic Wednesday; he was perfect. He’s been the best pitcher in baseball, in my opinion. Since 2010, he’s third in WAR with 25.4, behind Felix Hernandez (26.5) and Justin Verlander (26.9). It’s long been discussed, however, that FIP based WAR might underrate Kershaw a little. If we use RA9-WAR, we get the same pitchers, in a different order. Kershaw reigns supreme at 29.7; Verlander and Hernandez follow accordingly with 25.6 and 25.5, respectively. Kershaw’s been great for quite some time, but he’s doing something he’s never came close to doing before, according to K-BB%.

Over the past 3 seasons, Kershaw has posted strikeout percentages of: 25.4, 25.6, and 34.4, while posting walk rates of: 7.0, 5.6, and 3.2. His strikeouts are through the roof, as his swinging strike rate, while his walk rate has plummeted even further. Kershaw, due to injury isn’t a “qualified” pitcher, at the moment. Nonetheless, what he’s doing is historic.

Since 1965, only Pedro Martinez has posted a better K-BB% as a starter, with at least 60 innings pitched. We’re in a different era, strikeouts are more prevalent than ever, but, still…come on. Kershaw’s doing something that’s nearly unheard of. He’s started 10 games. He’s struck out at least nine batters in seven on them. Regression might take over; it probably will, at least a little bit, but I’m not betting against Kershaw. Not this year. Maybe not ever.

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