Archive for Daily Fantasy Strategy

Let me start by saying I’m making an assumption that most of us form our basic opinions of a player’s fantasy value with categories in mind. By that I mean most of us play in yearly roto or H2H formats that use categories. Some people play in points leagues, but from what I can tell, points leagues make up a fairly small percentage of yearly leagues. And not all points leagues are the same. My guess is that whatever your opinion is of a player’s value, it’s somewhat based on categories.

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Can we take a moment to talk about Chase Utley? I briefly mentioned Scott Kazmir’s come back the other day. Utley’s isn’t very similar because he hasn’t actually gone anywhere the past few years, even if it felt as if he had at times. Utley’s stayed productive despite his body’s seemingly ill wishes. From 2005 – 2009, it’s hard to put into words how good he was. He was second in WAR over that time period with a 37.4 mark, second only to King Albert’s staggering 41.

Obviously his prime was fantastic, even if, as a Braves fan, it was tough to watch. But damn, if it wasn’t fun, too. Over the past few years, injuries have been a bother, but he’s still remained remarkably productive at the plate. Since 2010, his wRC+ marks are as follows: 128, 111, 113, 126, and 252 (’14; small sample, etc.). Utley’s revert back to otherworldly excellence so far has been marvelous to watch, and to read about it, which you can do here. Hopefully he continues his tear for a little while longer, because it’s been fun.

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So, remember that time I recommended stacking Giants versus Paul Maholm? Yeesh. Oh well, perhaps you’re nice enough to let me slide on that one. Hell, I can’t be the only one who thought he’d get hit pretty hard. I thought the match-up itself had tremendous blow-up potential, considering Ryan Vogelsong was on the other end of the bill. Unfortunately, it didn’t quite work out that way. The Giants I happened to pick performed alright, but they weren’t winning you any money. So hopefully, we have a little better luck today.

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Today’s Roto Riteup was written while listening to my brand new vinyl of Illmatic. Tomorrow will be the 20th anniversary of Nas’ debut album. You can grab the album + MP3 download from Amazon for less than 22 bucks plus shipping. Order it now, thank me after you listen to it. For what it’s worth, Nas did a reddit AMA earlier in the week as well.

On today’s agenda:
1. Corey Hart in right field again?
2. Michael Brantley, RBI guy?
3. Kansas City (Outfield) Shuffle
4. The Daily Five

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On Mondays I write about daily fantasy strategy. On Wednesdays I’m supposed to write about closers. To be frank, I enjoy the topic I have been assigned for Mondays much, much more. I despise chasing saves (as I discussed a couple of weeks ago), and the guys doing the Bullpen Report really have relievers covered. But a commenter on one of my recent daily fantasy strategy posts asked me a question that involved both daily fantasy strategy and closers. The commenter wanted to know how viable it is to use closers in daily contests.

Closers are usually the cheapest players available in daily contests. In today’s contests on Draftstreet, the 34 cheapest players are relievers and only 2 relievers have a price tag above $3,000 when the average salary of all non-relievers is just over $6,000. The obvious reason is that relievers are the only players that we don’t know whether they’ll play before their game starts. That uncertainty drives the price down and is why I’ve ignored using closers to this point. But I may have been doing it wrong. Read the rest of this entry »

Jesse Chavez has been mentioned a lot on Fangraphs lately. Wiers mentioned him in the Roto Riteup yesterday. Cistulli dug a little deeper, and even added a few gifs later on in the day. Chavez’s start has been impressive, but I want to shed some light on Oakland’s rotation as a whole. The Athletics lost Jarrod Parker in spring training. A.J. Griffin will be back eventually, but his timetable is still a little uncertain. All told, the Athletics had to replace two pitchers that were firmly slotted into their Opening Day rotation. They’ve done that, and then some.

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April 15 is one of my favorite days of the year. And not because it’s tax day. It’s Jackie Robinson Day. It’s the day our sport comes together to honor Mr. Robinson and his magnificent achievements. Without his sacrifice and perseverance the game we love wouldn’t be nearly as special as it is today. So, today when you’re enjoying the game, think a little bit about Mr. Robinson.

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Well, last night was a dud. Chris Sale and Jose Fernandez got knocked around a bit. Andrew Cashner was phenomenal, and pretty much everyone I recommended performed rather poorly despite their match-up advantages. Here’s to hoping today is a little more fruitful.

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It’s ace day! Jose Fernandez (my personal favorite), David Price, Yu Darvish, Madison Bumgarner, Chris Sale, and Felix Hernandez all take the bump today. If none of those guys make you feel all tingly then you can watch one of the other fantastic hurlers (Teheran, Ryu, Cueto, Cashner, etc.) instead. Seriously, tonight is stacked with phenomenal pitching. And I’m not sure about your interests, but pitching is my absolute favorite part of the game.

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Brad Johnson, an author here at Fangraphs that you’ve probably read numerous times, wrote a little bit about luck the other day. It’s definitely more prominent in daily fantasy than the standard roto setups that we all normally play. Daily fantasy is fun. We get to draft a new team every day, perhaps win a little money, and scoreboard watch. However, it can also be so, so maddening.

For example, one night last week I entered a tournament on Draftstreet and missed winning anywhere from $300-$500 (depending on my ultimate finish) by 1.5 points. Brad Miller gave me zilch, but it wasn’t his fault. The combination of the terrible playing surface in Oakland and the error in judgement made by the groundskeepers, probably cost me. But, on the bright side, at least my lineup construction got me close in the first place?

To echo Brad once more, you’ll likely have nights where you barely lose. You’ll have a few nights where you play matchups and definitely have the edge, but someone of the Kevin Correia ilk will toss a shutout and completely blow up your chances. That doesn’t mean you’re terrible at picking a lineup; you just got a bad beat. Keep pushing and playing the right matchups and you can definitely make some money. And hopefully we can help you do that.

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