Archive for Cubs

Episode 88

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris to preview the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music

Approximately 66 min of joyous analysis.

FSTA draft results mentioned several times in the show

The Nationals made a move that could leave fantasy owners mildly perturbed, acquiring David DeJesus from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for a player to be named later. DeJesus was batting .250 with a .330 OBP while playing a well-regarded centerfield before being traded.

When you boil it down, this is a deal involving a newly minted fourth outfielder, but there are many players whose values could be altered with this simple deal. Let’s examine each and every one of them, shall we?

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Last week I took a look at three power arm prospects who could be handling the 9th inning soon for their major league teams. In that article I profiled Detroit’s Bruce Rondon, Toronto’s Marcus Stroman and Seattle’s Carter Capps. Today I thought I’d continue with that theme by looking at a few more players with similar potential who are the property of National League organizations.

Heath Hembree, RHP, San Francisco Giants

Hembree was a 5th round pick in 2010 out of the College of Charleston – a very underrated baseball school. The South Carolina institution has had three or more players drafted every year since 2005. The school hasn’t had a player taken in the 1st round, but they have had three 2nd rounders and also saw current Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner taken in the 3rd round. Hembree was the Closer for a Cougars team that made a run to the NCAA Regional Finals his draft year. A torn right meniscus in his knee and irregular usage somewhat limited his innings in college, but he generated a lot of buzz leading up to the draft. After being picked by the Giants the fireballer then struck out 22 batters in his 11 inning short season pro debut that year. He’s largely continued that success over the last couple seasons.

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Despite apparent mutual interest in a return engagement at Target Field, Scott Baker has parted company with the Twins and will head six hours southeast on I-90/94 through the vast, untrodden wilds of Wisconsin to Wrigley Field after signing a one-year deal with the Cubs. The one-year part of the deal makes complete sense as Baker missed his last chance at a huge free agent deal because of Tommy John surgery in March of last year, but is Wrigley really the best place for him to recover his value? Additionally, is one year enough for Baker to get back to the pay scale he’s looking for?

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Aramis Ramirez has been a fantasy star for seven of the past eight seasons. With the uncertainty surrounding Alex Rodriguez, some consider Ramirez as the third-best at the position, trailing only David Wright and Evan Longoria. According to the latest numbers at Mock Draft Central, Ramirez has an ADP of 31, making him a mid-third-round pick.

Last year among third basemen, Ramirez finished second in RBIs (111), third in Runs (97), fourth in AVG (.289) and fifth in home runs (27). Those are all very good numbers but do they add up to his ADP?

The RotoTimes Player Rater had Ramirez’ 2008 as the 41st-best season for a hitter, which trailed Kevin Youkilis, Chipper Jones and Aubrey Huff, three players who currently have a lower ADP than Ramirez.

There are questions surrounding all three of those guys but it is not as if Ramirez does not have issues of his own. From 2004-2006, Ramirez averaged 35 HR and a .304 AVG. Since then he is striking out more, hitting for less power and only a relatively high BABIP is keeping his average close to where it has been previously.

Last year Ramirez struck out in 17 percent of his at-bats, his highest total since 2002. After three straight years with an ISO in the .260s, Ramirez has seen his marks slip to .239 in 2007 and .229 a season ago. His HR/FB rate has dropped from a high of 18.7 percent in 2005 to 15.1 to 13.3 to 12.0 percent last season. Only a career-best 48.3 percent fly ball rate kept his HR totals as high as they were last season.

Ramirez has a lifetime .293 BABIP. The past two seasons he posted .316 and .307 marks in the category. Last year he hit .289 with his .307 BABIP. In 2004 he hit nearly 30 points higher with the exact same BABIP. Four times in the last seven years, Ramirez has totaled a BABIP under .300 and if he does that again in 2009 his average could suffer a big drop.

To get back to his 04-06 peak will take quite a turnaround for Ramirez in 2009. Just matching his fantasy numbers from 2008 may be a bit too much to ask. Ramirez gets a slight position bump but not anywhere big enough to make him worth his ADP.

In 2006 Alfonso Soriano was the third-best fantasy hitter, thanks to a season that included 46 HR and 41 SB. Injuries curtailed his production in both 2007 and 2008, with a fractured left hand causing Soriano to miss 34 games last season. Currently, he has an ADP of 23, as fantasy owners are optimistic he will play a full season and approach the lofty levels he enjoyed back in 2006.

It is doubtful that Soriano will come close to 41 SB. He attempted 25 and 22 steals the past two seasons. And while those numbers would have been higher in a full season, even pro-rated they come up short of the 58 attempts he had in 2006. Soriano remains an excellent percentage base stealer (a fantastic 86 percent success rate in 2008) but at the age of 33 this season, it is likely his 40-steal days are behind him.

However, a return to 40 HR is not out of the question if he can play in 150 games. Soriano hits the necessary number of fly balls; his 48 percent fly ball rate ranked seventh in the majors in 2008. And while his 17.1 percent HR/FB rate was above average, it is in line with what he has done previously. His lifetime HR/FB mark is 15.7 percent.

But none of the four projection systems thinks a 150-game season is on tap for Soriano. Bill James is the most optimistic in regards to playing time, and it forecasts 140 games and 576 at-bats. On the other end of the spectrum, Marcel and Oliver see 465 and 461 at-bats, respectively. Soriano had 647 at-bats in his standout 2006 season.

With the questions about his playing time and how many steals he will likely post, it seems that Soriano is being slightly overvalued in the mock drafts. If you are intent on drafting an outfielder, Carlos Lee and Ichiro Suzuki would be potential replacements, with the latter’s AB-heavy AVG a nice thing to have.

Due to a combination of a tremendous strikeout mark, a solid ERA and a nice WHIP, Carlos Marmol had a fantasy value of roughly $6 in a 12-team mixed league last year. That figures to go up substantially in 2009 as he takes over the closer’s role for the Cubs with the departure of Kerry Wood.

Some owners will be wary of Marmol, due to the fact that he hasn’t been a closer for a full season previously. Others will point to his high walk rate, while some will be scared off by his FIP, which was nearly a run higher than his actual ERA. There are also questions about his stamina, as a rough patch in June was attributed to fatigue.

Smart fantasy owners will use all of these fears to acquire Marmol cheaper than he should go in an auction or later than he should go in a draft.

While Marmol has not closed previously, he converted seven of eight save chances last year (one of his two blown saves came in the seventh inning). The walk rate is definitely a concern, but as Francisco Rodriguez has shown the last few years, a high strikeout rate can offset a poor walk rate. Most of Marmol’s poor outings came between May 31 and July 2. But whatever was bothering him then was quickly rectified. After the break he had a 1.29 ERA with 16 BB and 44 K in 35 IP.

The Cubs also have former Marlins closer Kevin Gregg and former college football star Jeff Samardzija in the bullpen. They may siphon off some saves during the year, but in 2008 Wood had 34 of the team’s 44 saves. Since the Norm Charlton–Heathcliff Slocumb fiasco in 1997, manager Lou Piniella has displayed a strong preference for one closer in his next 10 seasons at the helm. Not once in those 10 years have two relievers on a Piniella-managed team reached double digits in saves.

Wood had a $19 season in 2008 and was a top-25 pitcher overall as the Cubs closer. I might be a tad more conservative than that for Marmol, but I would expect that to be a ballpark figure of his worth in 2009.

Derrek Lee finished 21st in the MVP vote in 2008 on the heels of his .291/.361/.462 season for the NL Central-winning Chicago Cubs. But as impressive as that may be, Lee is a fringe fantasy starter in a 12-team mixed league.

In 2005, the idea that Lee would be a fringe starter just a few years later was absurd. That season he went .335-46-107 and seemingly had the world at his feet. But after signing a five-year contract in April of 2006, Lee suffered a right wrist injury that ruined his season and apparently robbed him of his power.

When he returned in 2007, Lee hit just 22 HR and his 12.6 percent HR/FB ratio was nearly half the total he posted in his big 2005 season of 23.7 percent. In 2008, many thought his power would return with him being further out from the wrist surgery. But Lee’s HR/FB ratio fell to 11.7 percent and his FB% fell to 33.7 percent, a career low.

What HR power Lee does possess at this point seems to be a Wrigley Field illusion. In the past two seasons, he’s hit 31 HR at home and just 11 in neutral road parks.

Lee enters 2009 as a 33-year old with limited power at a fantasy position that demands big HR and RBI numbers. In 2008, Lee had the 11th-best dollar value among first basemen, according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. Among those beneath him and ready to challenge him for a spot in the top 12 are Joey Votto, Carlos Pena, Chris Davis and Pablo Sandoval. Aubrey Huff and Jorge Cantu have first base eligibility, as well.