Does Aramis Ramirez’ ADP Pass the Smell Test?

Aramis Ramirez has been a fantasy star for seven of the past eight seasons. With the uncertainty surrounding Alex Rodriguez, some consider Ramirez as the third-best at the position, trailing only David Wright and Evan Longoria. According to the latest numbers at Mock Draft Central, Ramirez has an ADP of 31, making him a mid-third-round pick.

Last year among third basemen, Ramirez finished second in RBIs (111), third in Runs (97), fourth in AVG (.289) and fifth in home runs (27). Those are all very good numbers but do they add up to his ADP?

The RotoTimes Player Rater had Ramirez’ 2008 as the 41st-best season for a hitter, which trailed Kevin Youkilis, Chipper Jones and Aubrey Huff, three players who currently have a lower ADP than Ramirez.

There are questions surrounding all three of those guys but it is not as if Ramirez does not have issues of his own. From 2004-2006, Ramirez averaged 35 HR and a .304 AVG. Since then he is striking out more, hitting for less power and only a relatively high BABIP is keeping his average close to where it has been previously.

Last year Ramirez struck out in 17 percent of his at-bats, his highest total since 2002. After three straight years with an ISO in the .260s, Ramirez has seen his marks slip to .239 in 2007 and .229 a season ago. His HR/FB rate has dropped from a high of 18.7 percent in 2005 to 15.1 to 13.3 to 12.0 percent last season. Only a career-best 48.3 percent fly ball rate kept his HR totals as high as they were last season.

Ramirez has a lifetime .293 BABIP. The past two seasons he posted .316 and .307 marks in the category. Last year he hit .289 with his .307 BABIP. In 2004 he hit nearly 30 points higher with the exact same BABIP. Four times in the last seven years, Ramirez has totaled a BABIP under .300 and if he does that again in 2009 his average could suffer a big drop.

To get back to his 04-06 peak will take quite a turnaround for Ramirez in 2009. Just matching his fantasy numbers from 2008 may be a bit too much to ask. Ramirez gets a slight position bump but not anywhere big enough to make him worth his ADP.