Archive for C.J. Wilson

It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

Thanks in large part to a breakout performance from Garrett Richards, the 2014 Angels rotation was around league average according to WAR, which is quite a bit better than they were expected to perform. Unfortunately, Richards went down with a knee injury in August. How quickly he can return to the mound and how healthy he is when gets there will be a huge part of how good this staff is this year. Past Richards, the Angels have three fairly reliable if unexciting pitchers projected to throw 190-ish innings. Just from writing up a few other teams for our depth chart discussions, I can tell you that’s not a luxury too many other teams have. So despite Richards’ absence early in the year, this staff is more settled than most. Read the rest of this entry »

Last second I changed the title from “Having a Presence” to “Commanding Attention”. If I were to talk about the team as a whole, I would have had to go with “Having a Presence,” but I’m focusing on their rotation, and well…they command our attention…

It’s rough to be a Mets fan living in Minnesota. It’s rough being a Mets fan anywhere, but watching the Twins and their approach to 100 losses doesn’t help. Despite being only 6.5 games back from the 2nd Wild Card to date, I don’t think the Mets will have enough offense to sustain next year, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be fun to watch. There will be quite the trio that commands attention – or even a quartet with the assumption that Noah Syndergaard makes an impact. And with a quartet…who knows?!

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C.J. Wilson put together an altogether terrific 2011 season, even garnering a good deal of votes for the Cy Young award that year. He posted a 2.94 ERA with 16 wins and a 23% strikeout rate for the Texas Rangers. After signing a lucrative deal with the Anaheim Angels the following year, his performance was a little disappointing. His control suffered, with his walk rate ballooning to 10.5% and his ERA rose to 3.83 (4.04 FIP) with a 1.34 WHIP. He went from a solid #2 to about a $5-$6 dollar player, getting selected around 125-130 overall.

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In 2011, Jonathan Papelbon was entering the last year of his contract with the Boston Red Sox without the two sides managing to work out an extension to keep him as closer for the future. It wasn’t cemented that Papelbon was gone, but there was a good deal of speculation that Daniel Bard was the heir apparent to the fireman’s role as he was coming off a dominant 2010 campaign.

When Papelbon recently signed with the Philadelphia Phillies, many assumed that the Boston brass would summarily anoint Bard as closer and move on to more pressing issues in the starting rotation and trying to find a right fielder, but there was no such announcement. In fact, when Daniel Bard’s name was brought up, it was mentioned that while he may be a candidate for the closer role, he might also stay in his familiar set-up job, or they just might try him out as a starter.

The starting role possibility was news to me, and and in looking at his minor league starts, it turns out there’s a pretty good reason why. Daniel Bard was a terrible minor league starting pitcher.

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I tend to get rather obsessed about starting pitchers, strikeouts, and predictability – three things that go together like Tracy Morgan, funny stuff, and sanity. What keeps me up at night, and what I find particularly unnerving are sizable, unexplained variations from year to year. Why did Jhoulys Chacin go from 9.04 strikeouts per nine innings pitched in 2010 to 6.96 in 2011? Why did Ricky Nolasco go from 8.39 K/9 to 6.47? Jered Weaver from 9.35 to 7.56? When obvious indicators of age or injury aren’t there, the resulting chaos has me reaching for torches and pitchforks.

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Earlier today, in Part I of the series, I published a chart of 38 pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break and their 2nd half ERAs. Here I want to go into more detail rather than just giving a raw score for the two metrics.

In rating the two systems, I considered the metrics to recommend keeping a pitcher if at the All-Star break they were at 3.50 or lower, to listen to a trade if they were between 3.51 and 4.00, to actively look to sell the player if they were between 4.01 and 4.50 and to either sell or cut a pitcher if they were above 4.51.

Of course, we also have to consider what the pitcher’s actual ERA was at the break, too. A pitcher could still be a sell candidate if one of the metrics was significantly higher than his ERA. For these extreme cases, I considered a difference between 50-75 points to be a “listen” candidate, while above 75 to be a “sell high” guy.

Felipe Paulino – pitched in just 5.2 innings after the break. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to a lack of playing time.

Francisco Liriano – His second half ERA was better than his first half mark, but both metrics thought he was outstanding before the All-Star break. This is a clear win for xFIP.

Anibal Sanchez – His 2nd half ERA (3.44) was a near-perfect match for his first half FIP (3.46).

Clay Buchholz – Both systems thought Buchholz was not nearly as good as he was in the first half. FIP had his as a keep while xFIP said he was an active sell. Since Buchholz did even better in the second half of the season than the first, this was a clear victory for FIP.

Josh Johnson – Both systems had Johnson as a keeper, but xFIP did a better job predicting his 3.50 post All-Star break mark.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – After allowing 4 HR in 71 IP in the first half, Matsuzaka served up 9 HR in 82.2 IP after the break. Big win for xFIP.

Johan Santana – His 3.00 ERA in the second half almost identical to his first half mark of 2.98. xFIP had Santana as a cut, so an easy win for FIP.

Jason Vargas – Eight of his 14 starts after the break came on the road and he allowed eight of his 10 second half HR away from Safeco. Big win for xFIP.

Justin Verlander – In the last three years, Verlander has posted an ERA over 5.50 in the month of April. He was terrific from May 1st through the end of the season again in 2010. Easy win for FIP.

Barry Zito – A lousy second half of the season made Zito a spectator for the Giants in the post-season. xFIP did an outstanding job predicting Zito’s collapse.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Just like with Zito, xFIP was just about perfect predicting Jimenez in the second half.

Tom Gorzelanny – Both systems saw Gorzelanny as a pretty good pitcher, but xFIP came closer to his second-half collapse.

John Danks – Again, the crystal ball for xFIP was right on target for Danks.

Tommy Hanson – In both seasons in the majors, Hanson has outperformed his xFIP. He turned it up a notch in the second half of 2010, thanks as much to his .233 BABIP as his 7 HR in 100.1 IP.

Matt Cain – Another pitcher with a history of outperforming his peripherals, Cain beat his FIP by nearly a run and his xFIP by nearly two runs in the second half of 2010.

Clayton Kershaw – Just as good in the second half of the season as he was in the first.

Cliff Lee – Many people wanted to eliminate Lee from this study last year, as he went from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park. But Lee outpitched his xFIP after the break in 2009. No such luck for Lee this year while following a similar story line of moving to a tougher park for pitchers.

C.J. Wilson – Like Kershaw, he was remarkable consistent between halves and ended up as a win for FIP.

Livan Hernandez – Those of us who kept predicting the bottom to fall out for Hernandez in 2010 are still waiting. Meanwhile, his second half ERA of 4.02 was a perfect match for his first half FIP.

Doug Fister – I imagine even the staunchest FIP supporters were shopping Fister every chance they could.

Fausto Carmona – After back-to-back seasons with a BB/9 over 5.00, Carmona allowed just 29 BB in 94.0 IP after the break last year. That had more to do with it than HR rate (10 HR in 94 IP) for why FIP was a clear winner.

Gavin Floyd – Fantasy owners did not know start from start what to expect from Floyd, but xFIP did a nice job of predicting his second half ERA.

Mark Buehrle – Like Wilson and Kershaw, Buehrle was a model of consistency with his ERA between halves this year. However, I worry about his K/9 rate and would be shocked if he was on any of my teams next year.

Brandon Morrow – With the Blue Jays out of the race, they decided to shut down a healthy Morrow after his first September start, which limited him to 46.1 IP after the break. A polar opposite to Buehrle, Morrow posted a 10.95 K/9, up from 8.14 a season ago.

Johnny Cueto – Cueto’s second half ERA was in the range predicted by his first half FIP and xFIP. But it was just 0.05 away from his FIP.

John Lackey – His second half ERA of 3.97 was a nice match for his 3.89 career mark but I doubt that makes too many Red Sox fans happy about his season and the team’s remaining obligation to him.

Kevin Correia – The first player on our list to have a big discrepancy between his FIP and xFIP due to a high HR rate, Correia did not show much regression in the second half of the year. Those who thought he would rebound, especially considering his home park, were disappointed. Correia allowed 13 HR in 82.1 IP in Petco this year.

Cole Hamels – Just like in 2009, one pitcher from the high HR rate side completely turned things around to become one of the best pitchers in the second half. Hopefully, Hamels has more luck in 2011 than 2009’s entry did. Rich Harden had a 5.58 ERA in 20 games with the Rangers this year after having a tremendous post-break performance (2.55 ERA) in 2009.

Nick Blackburn – Both systems would have advised cutting Blackburn, who responded with a 3.94 ERA in the second half, as he showed a big across-the-board improvement, including a microscopic 1.83 BB/9.

Kevin Millwood – Most of the players with a high HR/FB rate come back as not worth the risk by both systems. But xFIP said Millwood was significantly better than he showed in the first half and did an excellent job projecting his post-break ERA.

Jeff Karstens – An sore shoulder led to just one appearance in September. I regret the pain suffered by Mr. Karstens but it’s probably just as well that it played out that way.

Zach Duke – Hard to believe he made the All-Star team in 2009. Since then he is 11-23 with a 5.52 ERA.

James Shields – Both systems predicted a big bounce-back performance in the second half by Shields but that never materialized. He continued to give up HR by the basket, saw his K/BB ratio drop by over a full point and saw his BABIP increase to .362 after the break.

Brian Bannister – Limited to 25.2 IP in the second half due to rotator cuff tendinitis.

Randy Wolf – Both systems saw Wolf as waiver wire fodder but he had a 2.67 ERA in his final 13 starts, which was right after I placed him on waivers in a dynasty league.

Doug Davis – Elbow tendinitis kept Davis from pitching after the All-Star break.

Ricky Nolasco – FIP was nearly perfect with its Nolasco forecast, a marked departure in recent history, as he has generally underperformed his peripherals the past two seasons. Of course, Nolasco pitched just 47 innings after the break due to knee surgery.

Ian Kennedy – Neither system thought much of Kennedy going into the break but xFIP had a brighter outlook. Meanwhile, Kennedy put it altogether after the All-Star game, with Quality Starts in seven of his last nine outings. He finally started pitching well in his home park. In his last three games in Chase Field, Kennedy allowed 4 ER (0 HR) in 19 IP.

*****

When I started this comparison in 2009, my belief was that you would be just as well off using either system. After last year, there was a definite raw advantage for xFIP but now with two years worth of data, the two systems are basically even. Overall, there have been 72 pitchers who’ve had a 0.50 or greater difference between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break. Here’s how they did if you used their first half FIP or xFIP to project their second half ERA:

xFIP – 37
FIP – 34
Push – 1

Both systems have strengths and weaknesses. Generally speaking, xFIP does a better job with non-elite pitchers with low HR rates while FIP does a better job with elite hurlers. So, if a Tom Gorzelanny is cruising along with a sub-7.0 HR/FB rate, it appears you should look to sell high. But if it’s Justin Verlander, perhaps you should hold onto him.

We know that over the long haul that xFIP is the better metric to use for most pitchers. The issue here is that for one season (or one partial season) there may not be enough time for regression to fully kick in. Let’s look at Tim Lincecum. In the first half of 2009, he had a 3.9 HR/FB rate. In the second half of the season he had a 7.5 HR/9. This year he had a 9.9 HR/FB ratio. He has been regressing towards a normal HR/FB rate since the first half of 2009. But it did not all come in the same season.

Readers have suggested using first half ERA, or a mid-point between first half FIP and xFIP or an average of all three to see which one best predicted second half ERA. I think these are worthwhile suggestions and perhaps ones that we can use in the future (going back retroactively, too) as our sample size increases. We can also eliminate pitchers who did not pitch substantial innings and look for other trends and anomalies as our population gets bigger.

This started with a claim by my friend and colleague Derek Carty that FIP was basically useless for fantasy purposes with other metrics like xFIP available. Right now it appears FIP is making a case not to be tossed into the trash can by fantasy players.

In 2009, I did a column at the All-Star break to see if FIP or xFIP would be more helpful for fantasy players in making trades. This year I did the same thing. You can see the results below

Should Fantasy Owners Use FIP?
FIP Challenge Results Part I
FIP Challenge Results Part II
FIP Challenge 2010

Here is the table from the 2010 article, along with an additional column, the pitcher’s ERA in the second half of the season.

There are 38 pitchers in the above chart. On a raw scale, the two systems were almost identical, with the FIP metric did a better job of predicting 2nd half ERA in 20 cases while xFIP did better 17 times. Furthermore, FIP did a better job of forecasting 14 of the 26 players with low HR/FB rates and both systems got five of the 11 pitchers (Davis being a wash) with high HR/FB rates.

In 2009, xFIP did better on a raw scale, as it did a better job predicting 20 of the 34 pitchers in the sample.

Similar to 2009, most of the pitchers fell outside the range predicted by FIP and xFIP. For example, Liriano’s FIP was 2.18 while his xFIP was 2.97. But he had a 3.31 second half ERA. Only seven of the 37 players listed above had a second half ERA between their first half FIP and xFIP. The two systems were close on this, too, with FIP being better on four of these seven pitchers. In 2009, 28 of the 34 pitchers had second half ERAs outside the range of their first half FIP and xFIP numbers.

Later today I will post a breakdown of all 38 pitchers in this survey.

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 26. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Mark Buehrle – He has lost back-to-back starts and in his last six games Buehrle is 0-3 with a 5.92 ERA. He has two home starts this week but Buehrle has not been very good at the Cell, with a 4.95 ERA. Put the veteran on your bench this week.

Mike Pelfrey – Citi Field has been very, very good to Pelfrey this season. In road parks, he is 5-6 with a 4.95 ERA. But in his home park, Pelfrey is 10-3 with a 2.87 ERA. In his last five home starts he is 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA. In his last five road starts Pelfrey is 1-3 with a 4.76 ERA. He has two home starts this week so get him in your lineup.

Jonathan Sanchez – In his last seven games, Sanchez is 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA. During that stretch, he has allowed 17 BB in 45 IP, compared to a 4.29 BB/9 ratio for the entire season. Sanchez faces division opponents Arizona and San Diego this week. He has pitched well against those two teams, with a combined 2.40 ERA in seven games. Get Sanchez in your lineup this week.

C.J. Wilson – Although he has lost his last two decisions, Wilson has been pitching just as well down the stretch as he has most of the season. In his last eight games he is 6-2 with a 2.75 ERA, with 53 Ks in 52.1 IP. Wilson has two home starts this season and while he has a slightly higher ERA in Arlington, he has a 10-2 record in his home park. Make sure Wilson is in your lineup.

Carlos Zambrano – In his last start, Zambrano pitched six shutout innings but came away with a no-decision, which ended a five-start winning streak. Since returning to the rotation, Zambrano is 6-0 with a 1.42 ERA in nine games. His walk rate in this stretch (33 BB in 57 IP) is troubling, but Zambrano has survived thanks to allowing just 1 HR in 57 IP. This week he faces San Diego and Houston. The Astros are last in the NL with 405 walks, nearly 200 behind the league-leading Braves. Houston is also last in the league in HR (105), while San Diego ranks 12th in the 16-team league. Look for Zambrano’s strong pitching to continue and get him active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 26 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Halladay, Jimenez, F. Hernandez, Price, Lee, Buchholz, Haren, E. Santana, Scherzer, Latos, Hanson, W. Rodriguez, E. Jackson, Lackey, B. Anderson, Lilly, Burnett, A. Sanchez, Davis, Slowey, Niese, Volquez, Braden, Matusz, Minor, Galarraga, Stauffer, Carrasco, Sanabia, Francis, Bush, Lohse, Millwood, Drabek, Davies, R. Lopez, Rzepczynski, Pauley, O’Sullivan, Burres, Morton.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 24 pitchers and how they fared.

Dickey – Advised to start. W, 3.00 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.33 WHIP (2 starts)
Enright – Advised to start. 14.85 ERA, K, 2.855 WHIP (2)
Garland – Advised to sit. W, 3.86 ERA, 10 Ks, 0.857 WHIP (2)
Hudson – Advised to start. W, 0.63 ERA, 14 Ks, 0.698 WHIP (2)
Narveson – Advised to start. 5.91 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.500 WHIP (2)

After enjoying a career year pitching out of the ‘pen for the Rangers in 2009, C.J. Wilson was shifted to the starting rotation this past spring. Prior to April 8th, 2010, the 29-year-old hadn’t taken a big league mound as a starter since August 18th of 2005. Strictly a reliever from 2006-2009, Wilson whiffed 8.94 batters per nine innings, walked 4.26 per nine and had a 51.1% ground ball rate. In March, Matt Klaassen theorized about Wilson’s value taking the ball every fifth day instead of pitching in short bursts. The whole article is well worth a read, but here are a couple tidbits:

How good would Wilson be as a starter? CHONE projects him to have a 3.70 FIP in 2010, and ZiPS projects him for 4.17 — an average of about 3.94. Both of those projections are based on Wilson’s performances as a reliever, and as a general rule one estimates that a reliever will be one run per 9 innings pitched worse as a starter. A 4.94 FIP isn’t replacement level, but even in Texas’ hitter-friendly home park, that’s nothing to get excited about other than as a stopgap or back-of-the-rotation type.

However, Klaassen also noted Wilson’s increased ground ball rate in 2009, as well his improved performance against right-handed pitching:

I don’t have a firm conclusion. At first glance, we wouldn’t expect Wilson, a capable reliever, to be that effective as a starter. However, if the new cutter has not only helped his platoon issue but has expanded his repertoire so that he can to get through the order more than once (and perhaps get even more groundballs), then — provided he can handle a starter’s workload over a full season — the Rangers might have something more than just a stopgap starter on their hands.

So far, it looks like Wilson has blown by that modest projection — he holds a 3.35 ERA in 113 innings pitched. But, if you look a little closer, you’ll find some cracks in his seemingly stellar first half. In truth, Wilson has pitched much closer to the level Klaassen forecasted than the lefty’s ERA would indicate.

Navigating lineups multiple times, Wilson’s got 6.53 K/9, 4.38 BB/9 and a 49.5% ground ball rate. As those ratios suggest, Wilson isn’t whiffing a lot of batters or displaying particularly sharp control. Texas’ fifth-rounder in the 2001 draft has a 6.6% swinging strike rate (8.4% MLB average this season), and his contact rate is 83.7% (81% MLB average). Wilson’s getting into hitter’s counts more often that you’d like, throwing first pitch strikes 53.6% (58% MLB average), and he has been about average in terms of putting his offerings over the plate (47.3 Zone%). On pitches out of the zone, Wilson’s garnering swings just 23.4% of the time (28.6% MLB average).

As a starter, Wilson’s using his fastball (down about three ticks in velocity) less than half of the time. He’s going to a high-80’s cutter about 19 percent of the time, a low-80’s slider 12 percent, a low-80’s changeup 13 percent and a mid-70’s curveball on roughly eight percent of his pitches. That cornucopia of pitches has worked wonders against same-handed hitters, but Wilson’s underlying performance against righty hitters leaves much to be desired:

Clearly, Wilson has been fortunate in not yet surrendering a homer to a lefty and in having a microscopic BABIP against them. But he has been pretty effective against LHBs overall. It’s a different story when an opposite-handed batter steps to the plate — Wilson’s often losing the zone against RHBs.

Not that a half-season’s worth of starts should serve as definitive judgment on Wilson’s abilities as a starter, but his peripherals are rather close to what Klaassen predicted. Wilson’s xFIP is nearly 1.4 runs higher than his actual ERA, at 4.71. He has benefitted from a .250 BABIP, seventh-lowest among qualified MLB starters, and he has served up homers on fly balls hit against him just 6.1% of the time. That’s one of the twenty lowest rates among big league starters, and is well below the typical 11% range for pitchers.

If Wilson continues to strike out and walk opponents at a similar clip in the second half, his ERA will almost assuredly rise by a significant margin. There’s also the workload issue to consider — Wilson’s previous career high in innings pitched is 136, and that was at High-A and Double-A back in 2002. Perhaps he’ll handle the increase just fine, but he does have a history of arm ailments (Tommy John in 2003, a biceps strain in 2006, elbow soreness and subsequent surgery to remove a bone spur in 2008, according to the Baseball Injury tool). The point is, we just don’t know.

Given his mild K and walk totals and his entering unchartered territory in terms of innings pitched, Wilson’s a good sell-high candidate. If you can convince an owner that Wilson’s an upper-echelon starter instead of a decent rotation arm with a good deal of risk, now’s the time to make a deal.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 14.

John Ely – After three rough outings in the middle of June, the concern was that the league figured out Ely. But he has rebounded with two strong starts of 7 IP, 1 ER each with 11 Ks in 14 IP. Overall he has a 3.62 ERA with a FIP and xFIP that support those numbers. Make sure he is active for his home starts against the Marlins and Cubs this week.

Gavin Floyd – All year long Floyd’s peripherals have been better than his results. And in his last five games, Floyd has pitched very well, although he does not have the Wins to prove it. He is 1-1 in that stretch but with a 1.26 ERA with 7 BB and 33 Ks in 35.2 IP. Floyd has favorable matchups this week with two home starts, one against the struggling Scott Kazmir and the other against Anthony Lerew and the Royals. He needs to be in the lineup.

Derek Lowe – Seven times this season, Lowe has received six or more runs from the Braves offense, which explains how a pitcher with a 4.53 ERA has 9 W at the beginning of June. While Lowe has pitched much better since mid-May, he still has a 5.09 road ERA and this week has starts in Philadelphia and in New York. Put him on the bench this week if you have other options.

Wandy Rodriguez – 2010 got off to a rough start for Rodriguez and then a five game stretch starting in late May it turned even worse. In that span, he went 1-4 with a 10.03 ERA and a 2.100 WHIP. But Rodriguez has seemingly turned it around by allowing just 1 ER in his last 13 IP and has picked up Wins in his past two starts. Even while struggling, Rodriguez’ ERA at home is 1.17 runs lower, thanks to keeping the ball in the park. With home starts this week against the Pirates and Jeff Suppan and the Cardinals, look for Rodriguez to continue his strong pitching of late.

C.J. Wilson – He has pitched well both at home and on the road this year but Wilson has notched five of his six wins in Texas and he has a 6.98 K/9 in his home park. This week he is home against last-place Cleveland and last-place Baltimore, so Wilson needs to be in the starting lineup.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 14 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Halladay, Weaver, F.Hernandez, Hamels, Peavy, Niemann, Pelfrey, Vazquez, Garza, Silva, J. Sanchez, Richard, Kazmir, Sheets, Matsuzaka, Slowey, Wolf, Kennedy, Bumgarmer, Harang, Francis, Masterson, Gorzelanny, Galarraga, Padilla, Volstad, Millwood, Arrieta, Bush, Robertson, Bannister, Lincoln, Volquez, Suppan, Laffey, Litsch, Rowland-Smith, Beltre, Enright, Martin.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 12 pitchers and how they fared.

Davis – Advised to sit. 3.09 ERA, 6 Ks, 1.371 WHIP (2 starts)
G. Gonzalez – Advised to start. 2 W, 0.69 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.000 WHIP (2)
Moyer – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.80 ERA, 12 Ks, 0.600 WHIP (2)
Niese – Advised to start. W, 5.06 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.594 WHIP (2)
Vargas – Advised to start. W, 2.25 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.083 WHIP (2)