Archive for Chris Tillman

We’re not even two full weeks into the 2016 season. I’d give the typical blanket small sample sizes warning, but instead I’d advise reading Mike Podhorzer’s piece from earlier in the week. I agree with the premise of doing nothing, but Mike discusses exceptions (injuries) and readers also brought up exceptions and reasons for making early-season moves in the comments. I routinely draft one to two players who are disabled-list eligible in my leagues so that that I can speculate on players who flash something intriguing in the season’s first few weeks. Chris Tillman is just the type of player I’m talking about. I’m writing this article in advance of his third start of the season Thursday night, so the PITCHf/x data and numbers are from his first two starts. As you’ve probably guessed, the PITCHf/x data is enticing.  Read the rest of this entry »

Usually all topics for posts come to me while in that hazy state between sleep and not sleep. On many an occasion an idea has snapped me out of that haze and sent me reaching for my phone in order to email the idea to myself so it can be remembered in the morning. But with football season in full swing, most ideas from the haze involve an oddly shaped brown ball right now. With my inbox devoid of any baseball ideas, it was time to scour random groupings of stats hoping something would stick out.

The first hopeful source of inspiration was my recently updated “contact management” list where each pitcher’s OPS allowed on only batted balls is calculated relative to league average (sOPS+). After sorting the list to display the starters with the most plate appearances against in an effort to make sample size less significant, Chris Tillman was the first pitcher who has allowed a lot of balls in play to have an sOPS+ on batted balls that was quite a bit away from average. With 100 being league average, Tillman’s sOPS+ on batted balls is 77. That makes him a top 15 starter in that category among qualified starters. Read the rest of this entry »

It had been a relatively quiet offseason for the Baltimore Orioles, but they’ve recently turned up the heat by signing Ubaldo Jimenez, Nelson Cruz and right-hander Suk-min Yoon over the past week. It’s been a flurry of moves that has personnel ramifications throughout the roster. However, perhaps the most significant addition comes in the starting rotation with former All-Star hurler Jimenez.

The rotation has proven to be an  a problem for the Orioles in recent years. No team has trotted out a worse collection of starting pitchers than the O’s over the last half-decade. Their 4.87 ERA and 4.82 FIP are the highest in Major League Baseball over that time frame. They’ve accumulated the highest home-run rate, the lowest ground-ball rate (which makes sense, considering the home-run rate) and the second-lowest strikeout rate. In short, it hasn’t been pretty and Orioles fans deserve a medal of some sort for coping with such dreadful pitching.

The organization is hoping to turn it around in 2014, though. The addition of Ubaldo Jimenez, the improvement of Chris Tillman, and the maturation of Kevin Gausman are all supposed to help right the ship. Miguel Gonzalez, Wei-Yin Chen and Bud Norris all simply need to not take on water, and the rotation has a decent chance at being league-average. Considering the potent lineup that now adds Nelson Cruz to the mix, the Orioles only need their starters to be average to compete for a postseason berth.

Of course, that’s not something on which I’m comfortable betting as draft day rolls around this spring.

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Episode 93

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris to preview the Baltimore Orioles and the San Diego Padres

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music

Approximately 61 min of joyous analysis.

ADP results from NFBC

It’s surprising Chris Tillman hasn’t developed into a superstar since he was part of Bill Bavasi’s talent dump to the Baltimore Orioles back in 2008 for one Erik Bedard. But after he posted a tidy little 2.93 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in limited action in 2012, he started to grace some sleeper pick lists headed into 2013.

Read the rest of this entry »

You’d think that after a shocking run to the playoffs despite having a dozen different pitchers make at least two starts — and only one make more than 20 — that the Baltimore Orioles would have done something to shore up their rotation this winter. They haven’t, so far, and while their decision is more than defensible, it doesn’t make projecting the 2013 collection any easier.

Here’s what we do know about this year’s Orioles rotation, however. We know that Joe Saunders (seven starts), Dana Eveland (two starts), and Randy Wolf (two starts) aren’t going to be part of it. We know that the top four is likely to be made up of Wei-Yin Chen, Jason Hammel, Miguel Gonzalez, & Chris Tillman, and we know with near absolute certainty that when the season ends, at least one of those four men (but likely more) will no longer be in the rotation. Read the rest of this entry »

As Eno pointed out yesterday, streaming on the final day of the season can be a tricky proposition. Teams headed for the playoffs might pull back a starter or at least give him an early hook while team that are out of it could leave a pitcher in far longer than he should be left in (rember Edwin Jackson’s last start?). But if you can grab even the slightest advantage in your final head to head match-up or you can eke out another point or two in your roto league, you’ve got to do whatever it takes to give yourself the best possible chance to win. Here are some names to consider here at the end… Read the rest of this entry »

If there’s less than two weeks to go and you’re noticing you have some catching up to do in innings pitched, you best get busy. I know in two of my high-payout standard roto leagues, there are four points separated by two wins, and at least a couple points to be had in strikeouts. As much as I hate the win category, I know I’m in win-chasing mode, and to that end, I’m looking at the most favorable matchups I can find.

There are a good number of decent options on the waiver wire as you head into the weekend, but I’m going to make a few recommendations based almost exclusively off of the fact that some starters are facing lineups that have been struggling to score runs. After all, if they don’t score, you’re in darn fine shape.

Read the rest of this entry »

Right-hander Chris Tillman is expected to play a prominent role in the Baltimore Orioles’ attempt to climb from the depths of the AL East standings. The 22-year-old, picked up as part of the February 2008 Erik Bedard deal with the Seattle Mariners, has both the performance record and scouting reports to elicit the attention of fantasy owners everywhere. Yet, Tillman’s early turns in the big league rotation over the 2009 and 2010 seasons have been underwhelming — with a 5.24 xFIP in 90 innings pitched, he has been slightly worse than replacement-level. Why has Tillman scuffled so far, and what can be expected in the future? Let’s try to find out.

First, I’d like to point out that the MLB numbers to be referenced have occurred in 90 innings, spread over two seasons. It’s a woefully inadequate sample with which to make any sort of bold claim. I’m simply trying to explore why Tillman has performed poorly to this point. The fact that he hasn’t zoomed out of the gate doesn’t preclude him from becoming a quality starter down the line.

With that disclaimer out of the way, here’s a look at how Tillman’s major league peripheral stats match up with his Major League Equivalent (MLE) line, based on his pitching in the minors over the past two seasons. In other words, here’s how Tillman has pitched in the majors, compared to how we would have expected him to pitch based on his minor league stats:

Actual MLB: 5.1 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 1.80 HR/9, 5.24 xFIP
2009-2010 MLE (based on 176 IP with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides): 6.57 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 0.95 HR/9, 4.31 FIP

Tillman has punched out about 1.5 less batters per nine innings than his MLE suggests. The lack of whiffs is reflected in his plate discipline stats — opponents have made contact against Tillman 84.9% of the time they take a cut (81% MLB average). Tillman’s swinging strike rate is 6.2%, while the big league average sits between eight and nine percent.

Looking at his Pitch F/X data, he has garnered a below average number of whiffs with his 91-92 MPH fastball (reputed to be 94+ MPH in the past) and upper-70’s curveball. Tillman’s heater has been whiffed at 4.6% (6% MLB average), and his curve 6.8% (11.6%). His 79-80 MPH change has a 13.9% whiff rate, which bests the 12.6% MLB average.

Tillman’s walk rate is higher than expected, due at least in part to his getting behind the hitter right from the get-go. Tillman’s first pitch strike percentage in the bigs is 54.5%, compared to the 58% MLB average. According to Baseball-Reference, batters have gotten ahead in the count at some point in 38.1% of their plate appearances versus Tillman. The AL average, by contrast, is 35-36 percent. Tillman has been ahead in the count at some point in 24.8% of opponent plate appearances, while the AL average is 30-31%. He’s spending too much time in hitter’s counts and too little time in pitcher’s counts, which obviously influences both his punch out and walk numbers.

Going back to the Pitch F/X data, Tillman’s throwing lots of strikes with his fastball — 66.1%, compared to the 64% MLB average. But, our Pitch Type Run Values suggest hitters are slamming the offering. Tillman’s fastball has been -1.65 runs below average per 100 pitches. He’s not throwing his curve or changeup for strikes — 50.7% for the deuce (58% MLB average) and 57.4% for the change (60.7%). But those secondary pitches fare better in terms of run value (-0.09 for the curve, +0.43 for the change).

Homers have also been an issue. Tillman has coughed up 1.8 dingers per nine. His home run per fly ball rate is inflated, at 14.1% (the MLB average is about 11%). However, Camden Yards increased home runs per fly ball hit by 15 percent over the 2006-2009 seasons. And, Tillman gives up lots of fly balls — his GB% in the majors is just 38.1%, and it was 37.6% in Triple-A over the past two seasons. If he had given up home runs per fly ball hit at a league average rate (11%) on the road and about 13% at home, he would have been taken deep 16 times so far (1.6 HR/9), instead of 18. Given Tillman’s flyballing ways, he’s not a great fit for his home venue. Perhaps that’s part of the reason why he has been working on a two-seam fastball, an offering that generates more ground balls than any other pitch type.

Fantasy owners, particularly those in keeper leagues, should have patience with Tillman. He won’t turn 23 until next April, and he was considered a top 25 prospect by Baseball America as recently as last season. That being said, there are some concerns here — Tillman’s strikeout rate fell at Norfolk this season, his fastball velocity has been less than advertised and hitters often loft the ball against him, a negative considering his home ball park. In the present moment, expect adequacy instead of excellence — ZiPS projects 6.11 K/9, 3.21 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9 and a 4.69 FIP for the rest of 2010, while CHONE forecasts 6.14 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.37 HR/9 and a 4.68 neutralized ERA.

Right now, Tillman isn’t showcasing the electric stuff that earned him the adulation of scouts. But keeper league players are best off holding tight and hoping that the mid-90’s heat and hammer curve return. Those just playing for the here and now should recognize Tillman’s lack of polish, while keeping a close eye on his outings. Pitchers don’t necessarily develop in a linear fashion; if he’s not hurt, perhaps Tillman’s just a mechanical tweak away from returning to form.

Stephen Strasburg, Nationals

Yeah, I know — kinda obvious. But Strasburg’s first two big league starts are well worth discussing. The hoopla surrounding the San Diego State Aztec reached mythical proportions typically reserved for the likes of Big Foot, Chupacabra and Loch Ness, but Strasburg has been highly impressive.

The 21-year-old righty ripped apart minor league batters before getting the call — in 55.1 IP between Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Syracuse, he had 10.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a FIP slightly above two. When opponents weren’t whiffing, they were hitting weak grounders (Strasburg’s GB% was 64.9). While his second MLB start against Cleveland proved that he is, in fact a sentient being capable of error, Strasburg has a 22/5 K/BB ratio in 12.1 frames so far.

He’s sitting 98 with the four-seamer, 96 with the two-seamer and also features a low-80’s curve with two-plane break and a 90-91 MPH change that drops seven inches more than his four-seamer (4-4.5 inch big league average). His swinging strike rate is 15.3. There’s not much else to say, other than Strasburg really is worthy of the attention that he receives.

Colby Rasmus, Cardinals

Rasmus, 23, has followed up a quality rookie season with a great leap forward at the plate. In 219 PA, he’s hitting .293/.399/.582, with a .414 wOBA that ranks in the top 10 among MLB hitters. Clearly, Rasmus won’t keep up this pace. He’s benefitting from some fortunate bounces, with a .375 BABIP that’s well ahead of his .319 expected BABIP. But even so, he’s working the count and crushing the ball.

Swinging at 23.3 percent of pitches out of the zone (28.1% MLB average), Rasmus is drawing ball four in 14.6% of his PA. His Isolated Power, .156 last season, is .288 in 2010. All of that taking and raking has come with more swings and misses (33.2 K%, compared to 20% in ’09), but it’s a trade well worth making. Rasmus likely won’t keep hitting homers nearly 21 percent of the time that he lofts a fly ball into the air — ZiPS projects a .266/.342/.447 line for the rest of 2010, and CHONE a .259/.339/.442 triple-slash. I’d take the over on those forecasts, however.

Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays

Definitively a starter with Toronto after years of role-related drama in Seattle, Morrow has been considerably better than his ERA (5.14) implies. He’s got 10.29 K/9, 4.89 BB/9 and a 3.99 xFIP in 70 innings pitched. Morrow still struggles to find the strike zone at times — his first pitch strike percentage is 53.8 (58.3% MLB average) — but he’s missing lumber at an elite rate.

With an 11 percent swinging strike rate, Morrow ranks in the top 10 among qualified starters (the MLB average is 8.2%). His contact rate of 74.4% is well above the 81.1% big league average and places behind just Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum and teammate Ricky Romero. The whiff rates on Morrow’s 94 MPH four-seam fastball and upper-80’s slider are stratospheric — 10.6% for the four-seamer (6% MLB average) and 26.7% for the slider (13.6% MLB average). This guy’s probably still available on the waiver wire, too, as Morrow’s owned in just 15% of Yahoo leagues.

Rick Porcello, Tigers

Porcello’s 21, and his career could take any number of paths over the coming years. But he hasn’t made progress during his sophomore season. The New Jersey prep product is punching out fewer batters this year than in 2009 (4.02 K/9, compared to 4.69 K/9), with a few more walks (2.91 BB/9, 2.74 BB/9 in ’09) and a lower ground ball rate (48.8 GB%, 54.2 GB% in ’09). No, he hasn’t been six-plus ERA bad — his BABIP (.350) and strand rate (61.6%) will regress toward the mean — but Porcello’s xFIP has climbed to 5.14 in 2010 after coming in at 4.32 in 2009.

At this point, Porcello basically has one pitch going for him: a 90 MPH sinker that he throws for strikes and uses to get grounders. Everything else is a work in progress. His four-seamer, thrown a couple ticks quicker, has a decent whiff rate, but Porcello struggles to locate it. Hitters lay off his lackluster breaking and off-speed stuff:

Having thrown all of 125 innings in the minors, Porcello is learning on the job. And he’s still got a ways to go.

Chase Headley, Padres

A full-time third baseman after spending the better part of the past two seasons in left field, Headley is flashing the leather — he has a +8.1 UZR/150 at 3B. His bat lags behind, however.

It seems like the switch-hitter might be trying to make more contact, to the detriment of his power and overall offensive performance. During his rookie season in ’07, Headley struck out 31.4%, with a 72.7 Contact%. Last year, he whiffed 24.5% and made contact 77.8%, and this season he’s punching out 20% with an 81 Contact%. His ISO over that time frame has dipped from .151 to .131 to .093. Headley’s wOBA has declined three years running as well, going from .334 in 2008 to .328 last year to .305 in 2010.

Considering that he’s not drawing many walks this year (5.7 BB%) while just blooping some singles, it’s not surprising that Headley’s offense has been below-average even after accounting for cavernous Petco Park — his wRC+ is 95.

Chris Tillman, Orioles

Tillman, 22, has fantastic long-term potential. He was ranked as a top 100 prospect by Baseball America prior to the 2008 and 2009 seasons, and he has 8.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a FIP around three in 154.1 innings at the Triple-A level over the past two years. Past scouting reports lauded his low-90’s heat (peaking around 94 MPH) and above-average curveball, delivered from a lanky 6-5 frame.

In the majors, however, Tillman’s stuff hasn’t looked as sharp. Tossing 15 innings for the O’s this year, Tillman has a 7/8 K/BB ratio, with 15 runs surrendered. His average fastball velocity is slightly under 91 MPH. In 80 combined IP over the past two years, Tillman has 5.18 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 5.31 xFIP. Both his four-seam fastball and curve have below-average whiff rates in the bigs so far (4.6% and 7.5%, respectively), which helps explain the lack of K’s. As an extreme fly ball pitcher (36.5 GB% in the majors, 39.7 GB% in the minors), Tillman needs to miss more bats and display sharper control. There’s nothing alarming here long-term, but Baltimore could send him back to Triple-A to work out the kinks.