Today’s Roto Riteup is back in full, so that’s sort of cool.
• Chris Narveson has now undergone season-ending surgery on his left shoulder. Narveson was never a fantasy stud, but he was a good candidate for wins and a few strikeouts in NL-only leagues. Narveson may now be out in Milwaukee, depending on what happens with free agents to be Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. Even if you have him cheap in a very deep dynasty league, I’d cut bait.
You’re gonna have to learn your clichés. You’re gonna have to study them, you’re gonna have to know them. They’re your friends. Write this down: “We gotta play it one day at a time…I’m just happy to be here and hope I can help the ballclub…I just wanna give It my best shot and, Good Lord willing, things’ll work out.” — Crash Davis
While the influx of baseball chatter and interviews is sincerely welcomed at this time of year, we, as fantasy owners, must maintain a clear head and corral that child-like jubilation that a new baseball season brings. You’re going to hear a number of comments regarding players and teams from both coaches and general managers, as well as from the players themselves. You’re going to hear things that get you excited about a particular player and if you don’t take things with a grain of salt, you could get swept up in the pomp and circumstance of spring training, lose sight of what’s actually in front of you, and fall victim to the hype.
So with that, let’s look at some common phrases you’ll hear and how you might want to react to them. Read the rest of this entry »
Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 17.
Rubby De La Rosa – Thought to be a potential closer earlier in the year, De La Rosa has instead found a home in the rotation for the Dodgers. A couple of rough outings have inflated his ERA while a couple of hard-luck losses leave his record at under .500 for the season. But in his last four games, De La Rosa has a 2.16 ERA with 7 BB and 22 Ks in 25 IP. Earlier in the year, walks were a big problem for him and he still holds a 4.09 BB/9. Even with that walk rate, De La Rosa’s FIP and xFIP are both below his ERA. He has two home starts this week. There’s a chance he’s still on the waiver wire in your league and if so he makes an excellent streaming option.
Freddy Garcia – After pitching on the road in five of his last six games, Garcia gets to make two home starts this week. The veteran has done quite well on the road this year and has been victimized somewhat by the gopher ball in new Yankee Stadium. Garcia squares off this week against SEA and BAL. The Mariners are one of the worst HR hitting teams in baseball, while the Orioles are middle of the pack, but hit one-third fewer HR on the road than they do in Camden Yards. They are have two of the worst records in the AL. Make sure Garcia is active this week.
Jeff Karstens – An 86.6 LOB% has helped Karstens to a shiny 2.28 ERA and eight wins. In the previous three years, Karstens was very consistent with his xFIP, posting rates of 4.77, 4.88 and 4.82 in that span. This year’s rate checks in at 4.40 – an improvement, perhaps, but still nowhere near his actual ERA. Karstens has kept runners off base and his 1.04 WHIP is the ninth-best mark in baseball. But he struggles with the long ball (1.33 HR/9) and has a poor 4.79 K/9. This week he has road starts against ATL and PHI, two of the top teams in the league and teams that are above average in hitting HRs in their own park. Give him the week off if you can.
Chris Narveson – Miller Park is a good hitter’s park but Narveson has performed much better this year at home (5-2, 3.81 ERA) than on the road (1-4, 4.97). Narveson allows fewer baserunners at home and has a better SO/BB ratio at Miller Park, but his main reason for success is that he’s only allowed 2 HR in 52 IP in his home park. This week he gets CHI and HOU, the two worst teams in the NL. Get Narveson in your lineup for these matchups.
Carl Pavano – In the first two months of the season, Pavano had HR/FB rates below seven. In June that number jumped to 8.8 percent and this month it sits at 12.5, as he’s allowed a HR in six consecutive starts. His first start this week is at TEX and the Rangers are second in the AL with 122 HR, with a league-leading 81 at home. Pavano gets a break with his second start at OAK, as the A’s are last in the AL with 26 HR at home. But Pavano has hardly been a road warrior this year, with a 5.07 ERA away from Target Field. Give Pavano a place on your bench this week if you have other options.
Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 17 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.
Verlander, Sabathia, Weaver, Lee, Lincecum, Haren, Wilson, Hudson, Cueto, Hellickson, Morrow, Nolasco, Zimmermann, Worley, Holland, Dempster, Niese, Harang, Vargas, Lester, Leake, Myers, McDonald, McClellan, Dickey, Arrieta, Blackburn, Miller, Carmona, McCarthy, Saunders, Nicasio, Westbrook, Moscoso, Moseley, Happ, Davies
Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.
Week 15 was the All-Star break, so no update on previous picks.
Here is the latest update to Week 12 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.
Pitchers not listed on last update: LeBlanc, A. Miller
Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Beckett, Godfrey
Dillon Gee – How much money do you think you could have made in Vegas at the beginning of the year by placing a wager for Gee to make the All-Star team? He couldn’t even make the starting rotation for the Mets, who spent the offseason signing every injury reclamation pitcher they could. But Gee is 7-0 and in his last six starts, he’s 5-0 with a 1.82 ERA with a 3.0 K/BB ratio. And the only reason he’s not 6-0 is because he had to leave his last start after four innings (no runs, one hit) due to a rain delay.
Gee’s stuff is frequently described as underwhelming yet he has a double-digit SwStr%, which would be a top-20 mark in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify. He’s added over two full strikeouts per nine to his mark from last year, he keeps his walks to an acceptable rate (3.0 BB/9) and doesn’t give up many home runs (0.55 HR/9).
His matchups this week are mixed, with a home start against the A’s and a road start in Texas. But at this point, Gee should be owned in every league and starting in all but the shallowest of mixed leagues. Get him into your lineup.
Derek Holland – In his last five games, Holland has pitched 31 innings and allowed eight home runs. Not surprisingly, he has a 5.52 ERA in this span. But he also has 27 Ks and a 2-1 record, which basically sums up Holland – he’s going to get you strikeouts and there’s a good chance he can get you wins, too. This week he has home starts against the Astros and the Mets. He has a 6.68 ERA at home this year and a 1.742 WHIP.
It seems like these would be good matchups for Holland, as Houston and New York are both near the bottom of the NL in HR. But Holland has been knocked around at home despite allowing just 3 HR in 31 IP. So he has just been hit unlucky. But the Mets and Astros are both above average in the NL in hits and New York is also above average in walks.
In making the decision with Holland it feels a little like going around in circles and that you can come up with a justification for whichever side for which you are predisposed. But ultimately if you have the depth, I would think this would be a good week to leave Holland on the bench.
Chris Narveson – Like Holland, Narveson is another SP option who may not be top tier, but who is worthwhile because he has a nice K-rate (8.04 K/9). But he is maddeningly inconsistent. In his last seven starts, Narveson has three where he’s given up 0 or 1 ER and four where he’s allowed four or more ER. One thing where Narveson has been a little more dependable is his home/road split. His ERA at home (3.86) is a full run lower than his road number (4.93). And while we usually think of Miller Park as a HR-friendly venue, Narveson has only allowed 2 HR in 32.2 IP at home compared to 5 in 45.2 IP on the road. This week Narveson has two home starts against AL clubs who will have to forfeit their DH. Make sure he is in your lineup this week to enjoy the Ks and hopefully pick up a win or two.
Carl Pavano – A rough start still has Pavano’s overall numbers looking pedestrian but he has a 2.24 ERA and a 1.228 WHIP in his last seven starts, with Quality Starts in his last three outings. But the Twins have not given Pavano much run support this year (3.40 per nine) and the veteran has displayed a big home/road split. At Target Field, Pavano is 3-1 with a 2.64 ERA. But on the road he is 1-4 with a 5.58 ERA. This week he has road starts in San Francisco and Milwaukee. So while he has been pitching better recently, give him the week off if you can.
Carlos Zambrano – Those who believe in karma can look at Zambrano and nod with approval. After having the bullpen blow a win in his first start in June, Zambrano ripped his teammates. And while he apologized, the gods were not appeased, as in his two starts since the outburst, Zambrano has allowed 12 ER in 12.1 IP. So, will his penance be over after two starts or is he in for more payback?
This year, Zambrano has a 5.22 ERA on the road and has allowed 25 BB in 50 IP. It’s tough to win with that walk rate and Zambrano compounds the issue by permitting 6 HR away from Wrigley this year. This week he has two road starts in AL parks, meaning he faces an additional hitter. Keep Zambrano on the bench this week and hope that this will be the end of the repercussions for his remarks.
Time to take a look and see who might be available in your leagues and could be worth adding to your squad. It’s still real early, but there might be a few choice names out there that can help, whether it’s short term or long term. Here’s a few to think about… Read the rest of this entry »
Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 24. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:
R.A. Dickey – Those who have waited all year for Dickey to turn back into a pumpkin have been disappointed. After a bad start against the Cubs in Wrigley, Dickey rebounded to post his 16th Quality Start of the year in his last outing. He gets two home starts this week. Dickey is 6-1 with a 1.85 ERA in Citi Field this year. Make sure he is active.
Barry Enright – Normally a K rate under 5.00 and a LOB% of 86.9 percent is something to run away from screaming. But at this point of the year when fantasy owners are jockeying for a money spot, you have to ride the hot hand. Enright has two road starts this week and this year away from Chase Field he is 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA in five starts. A small sample for sure, but he also gets to face a struggling Bronson Arroyo and the Pirates. Get him in your lineup.
Jon Garland – All season long Garland has been a pretty good pitcher at home and only so-so on the road. But in his last three games, all in Petco, Garland is 0-3 with a 6.19 ERA. This week he has road starts in Colorado and in St. Louis against Adam Wainwright. This looks like a good week to put Garland on the bench.
Daniel Hudson – In eight games for the Diamondbacks, Hudson has turned in eight Quality Starts. The FB% is still higher than one might hope for, but Hudson does have 20.3 IFFB% in the National League. His strikeouts have been up and down with the Diamondbacks, but Hudson has given owners strong ERA, Wins and WHIP numbers. Ride the hot hand and have Hudson as a starter this week.
Chris Narveson – The overall numbers look ugly but Narveson is on a nice little hot streak recently. In his last seven games, he is 3-0 with a 3.38 ERA. Narveson has 35 Ks and 12 BB in his last 40 IP. After struggling with the gopher ball earlier in the year, Narveson has allowed just 3 HR in his last seven games and this week faces the Giants and Astros, with the latter team having hit the fewest HR in the National League this year. Get Narveson active this week.
Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 24 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.
Lester, Wainwright, Price, Liriano, Kershaw, Myers, J. Garcia, Danks, Arroyo, Matsuzaka, Zito, Lowe, Blanton, Duensing, Wood, Fister, Kazmir, Silva, McDonald, Duke, Maya, Francis, Luebke, Gee, Tomlin, Hochevar, A. Miller.
Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 22 pitchers and how they fared.
de la Rosa – Advised to sit. W, 2.08 ERA, 13 Ks, 1.231 WHIP (2 starts)
Duensing – Advised to start. W, 1.04 ERA, 2 Ks, 1.731 WHIP (2)
Happ – Advised to sit. 2 W, 1.13 ERA, 11 Ks, 0.688 WHIP (2)
Wolf – Advised to start. W, 3.68 ERA, 5 Ks, 1.886 WHIP (2)
Zambrano – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.46 ERA, 15 Ks, 1.135 WHIP (2)
Some players to keep your eye on during the last month of the season.
Freddy Sanchez | 2B | 17% Owned
Seeing that he was a fantasy darling only a few years ago, I’m surprised Sanchez isn’t owned more. He had a big August, mostly due to a huge BABIP. However, his line drive rate was impressive the past couple of months, so the days of Sanchez hitting over .300 may have returned. He still won’t steal any bases or provide you with much power, but he is a low-risk option late in the year. Pick him up if he need help in the “runs” category, or don’t want to risk losing points in the batting average column.
Felix Pie | OF | 4% Owned
With playing time has come return for the Orioles, as Pie is showing some of the promise that made him a highly thought of prospect in the Cubs organization. Given a full year of starting, Pie may be able to produce a .300/15/15 season, good enough for a backup outfielder in most leagues. He’s done a great job lowering his strikeout rate, but his walk rate has suffered. While not a great option in OBP leagues, he’s worth your time in standard leagues.
Chris Narveson | SP | 2% Owned
Narveson has done a great job of not issuing free passes recently, even if he doesn’t strike anyone out. He’s nothing special, but he’ll give you a chance to rack up a couple wins during the last month on the season. As an extreme fly ball pitcher, you’re taking a risk, but he’s worth it.
Wade LeBlanc | SP | 11% Owned
The pitcher from Petco had a fantastic August, upping his whiff rate to over 10% and striking out close to a batter every inning. His ground ball rate stayed the same, so I’m loving LeBlanc right now. He doesn’t really have the arsenal for that high of a strikeout rate, but hovering around the 7.5 mark per nine isn’t out of the question.
Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:
R.A. Dickey, New York Mets (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)
One of the last cuts during Spring Training, Dickey went to Triple-A Buffalo waiting for his turn to come up. While manager Jerry Manuel was hesitant to use Dickey, the knuckleball pitcher is doing his best to make sure he stays in the rotation. In three starts with the Mets, Dickey is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA. While his FIP and xFIP are higher than his ERA, this is not an unusual think for a knuckleball pitcher. Phil Niekro had a higher FIP than ERA in 19 of his 23 full seasons in the majors. In the eight seasons prior to 2010 for which we have xFIP data, Tim Wakefield has posted a lower ERA than xFIP each year. In addition to the knuckler, Dickey can still throw his fastball in the mid-80s, not too surprising for a guy who was originally drafted in the first-round of the 1996 Draft. John Strubel had some nice Spring Training stuff on Dickey that you can read here and listen here.
Chris Narveson, Milwaukee Brewers (owned in 2% of Yahoo! leagues)
The overall numbers for Narveson are ugly. He has a 5.53 ERA and a 1.667 WHIP. But since moving into the starting rotation, he has put up some better numbers and appears capable of filling in at the back of a rotation or as a pitcher to use with the right matchups in NL-only or deep mixed leagues. In six games as a starter, Narveson has 3 Wins with 30 Ks and 12 BB in 32.1 IP. The ERA (5.01) and WHIP (1.454) are still nothing to get excited about but at least they are moving in the right direction. Narveson has a .365 BABIP so he still has some room for improvement in his ERA and WHIP.
Justin Smoak, Texas Rangers (owned in 9% of Yahoo! leagues)
When a high first-round pick makes the majors two years after he is drafted, he carries some high expectations. Smoak has yet to meet those with a .175 AVG in 114 ABs. But he is still someone to be excited about because even though he is struggling, Smoak does not appear overmatched. His K% of 21.1 is respectable and his BB% of 14.2 is very good. Additionally, Smoak carries a 25.3 LD%, which does not jibe with his .184 BABIP. The Dutton-Carty calculator thinks Smoak should have a .297 BABIP with his current stat line. Smoak is hitting in some bad luck. Grab him now and have him on your roster when the hits start falling in.
On Saturday, Milwaukee Brewers manager Ken Macha announced that David Bush will slot into the fourth spot in the rotation behind Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf and Doug Davis. The 30 year-old Bush is coming off of a grisly 2009 campaign in which he had a Boeing-level ERA and missed time in June and July with a right triceps tear after Hanley Ramirez scorched him with a comebacker. Is there any fantasy value to be had here?
In 114.1 innings pitched, the Wake Forest product had a 6.38 ERA. As you might expect, he wasn’t that bad: Bush’s expected FIP (xFIP), based on K’s, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, was a not-terrible-but still-mediocre 4.79. He managed to punch out 7.01 batters per nine frames, while issuing 2.91 BB/9. Those are quality numbers. But, as has often been the case in his career, Bush was battered by the long ball: he surrendered 1.5 HR/9.
Bush wasn’t particularly unlucky in terms of his fly balls becoming fan mementos. His HR/FB rate was 12 percent, close to his 11.7 percent career average and within the typical 10-12% rate for pitchers. It’s just that hitters are lofting the ball far more often against Bush:
Since his halcyon 2006 season (3.8 Wins Above Replacement), Bush has seen his groundball rate dip every year. He had a 46.6 GB% in ’06, 43.4% in 2007, 41.1% in 2008 and just a 34.4% rate of grounders this past season. Consequently, his HR/9 figures have climbed from 1.11 in 2006, 1.3 in 2007, 1.41 in 2008 and the aforementioned 1.5 mark in 2009. Bush’s xFIP last year was over a full run higher than his work in ’06.
With a kitchen sink approach to pitching, Bush tosses at least five different pitches (his Pitch F/X data identifies an occasional two-seamer as well). His fastball has never been known for its zip, but it averaged a career-low 87.9 MPH last year and was bushwhacked for a -1.36 runs/100 pitches value. That was the 11th-worst mark among starters with at least 110 innings pitched.
Perhaps feeling that his fastball had abandoned him, Bush threw the pitch a career-low 49 percent of the time. Whether you consider them separate pitches or not (the Baseball Info Solutions pitch data does), his slider (+0.20 runs/100) and cutter (+1.06) were effective. However, Bush’s slow curve (-0.15) and changeup (-4.46) rated poorly.
With fewer fastballs thrown (Bush’s fastball percentage has gradually dropped from 57 percent in ’06 to last year’s 49 percent mark), he has placed fewer pitches over the plate:
Bush’s percentage of pitches in the strike zone, 2006-2009 (MLB average that year in parentheses)
2006: 56.5% (52.6%), +7% above the MLB average
2007: 53.9% (50.3%), +7%
2008: 51.8% (51.1%), +1%
2009: 50.5% (49.3%), +2%
His first-pitch strike percentage has fallen from the 62 percentage range in ’06 and ’07 to a major league average 58 percent last year. Not coincidentally, Bush’s walk rate has gone from immaculate to merely good.
Bush’s BABIP (.324 last year) will likely fall, and he should do a better job of stranding runners on base (63.3 LOB% in 2009, compared to a 68.6% career rate). But to be a fantasy option, Bush must prove he’s healthy and regain his once-average fastball (career -0.19 runs/100), rather than continuing to chuck a pitch that looks like a beach ball to major league hitters.
It’s hard to recommend him, given his evaporating groundball rate and increasing rate of free passes handed out. CHONE calls for a 4.79 FIP, while ZiPS shows a 4.57 FIP forecast. It’s possible that Bush could have some value in NL-only leagues, but I can’t see him becoming a good mixed league pick.
Now that Bush is in the rotation, there’s a three-way ruckus for the fifth spot between Manny Parra (chronicled here), Jeff Suppan and Chris Narveson. Given that Soup’s French Onion is better than his fastball, Parra looks like the best option.
Here on Tuesday in the final week of the season most leagues have already passed their deadline for waivers. But for those of you in daily transaction leagues with moves still available and innings left to play with, there are no shortage of pitchers to consider. Here are the pitchers going Tuesday owned in fewer than 50 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Matchups come from ESPN.com.
Carlos Torres (2%) – Has road start in Cleveland against Masterson. Torres has pitched in six games for the White Sox and made four starts this year. Had a home start 8/8 versus the Indians and allowed 4 ER in 3.1 IP. His repertoire includes a fastball, cutter and curve. Torres offers some strikeouts possibilities with a 7.59 K/9 in the majors following a 9.14 mark this year in Triple-A.
Justin Masterson (34%) – Home against Torres and the White Sox. Has made nine starts for the Indians and allowed four or more earned runs in five of them. Masterson’s longest outing of the season is 6.1 innings. Has one appearance versus Chicago this season, his first start for Cleveland, in which he went four innings, gave up one run and fanned four on 8/8.
Anthony Lerew (0%) – Has road start in New York versus Burnett. Lerew was 10-6 with a 4.09 ERA in the Double-A Texas League this year with 101 Ks in 152 IP. In his only start in the majors, he gave up four runs (two earned) in 4.2 IP versus the Red Sox. Lerew had a 30.7 percent fly ball rate in the minors but gave up four ground balls and 11 fly balls in his start against Boston.
J.D. Martin (3%) – Has a home start against Pelfrey and the Mets. Is 1-1 versus New York this season, including a win on 9/18 when he gave up two runs and fanned three in 5.1 IP. Martin is 1-2 with a 5.68 ERA and a 1.611 WHIP in seven home games this season.
Wilton Lopez (0%) – Has a road start in Philadelphia against Happ. See Sunday’s two-start pitcher update for more on Lopez.
Brian Duensing (38%) – Has a road start versus Verlander in Detroit. Duensing has won five straight decisions since moving into the rotation, posting a 1.88 ERA in the seven-game stretch. He is 2-1 with a 4.11 ERA in 30.2 road innings this season. In three games (one start) against the Tigers, Duensing is 1-0 with a 0.61 ERA and has 8 Ks in 14.2 IP.
Jeremy Guthrie (27%) – Has a road start versus Davis and the Rays. Guthrie has lost three straight decisions and has a 6.38 ERA in that span. He is 5-8 with a 5.48 ERA in road games this year. Guthrie is 1-0 versus the Rays this season. He pitched six scoreless innings against Tampa in a home start on 4/11.
Wade Davis (35%) – Faces Guthrie and the Orioles at home. See Friday’s two-start pitcher article for more on Guthrie.
Homer Bailey (47%) – Has a home start versus Pineiro and the Cardinals. In his last seven starts, Bailey is 4-1 with a 1.99 ERA. He has a 1.288 WHIP and a 7.3 K/9 mark in home games this year. Bailey is 0-1 with a 4.99 ERA in two games against St. Louis this year.
Kevin Hart (3%) – Has a road start versus Dempster and the Cubs. Hart has picked up a loss in six straight games. He has a 7.31 ERA in that stretch, with 18 BB and 21 Ks in 32 IP. Hart started the year with Chicago and went to Pittsburgh in the Gorzellany/Grabow deal.
Chris Narveson (5%) – Has a road start in Colorado against Marquis. Narveson has appeared in 19 games for the Brewers and moved into the rotation three games ago. In his last outing he picked up the win, as he allowed one run in 5.2 IP and notched 10 Ks in a home game against the Cubs.
Cesar Ramos (0%) – Has a home start against Billingsley and the Dodgers. Ramos went a combined 6-7 with a 3.56 ERA among three stops in the minors this season. In three games in relief with the Padres, Ramos has 5 Ks in 5.1 IP. The lefty averages 91.8 with his fastball and also throws a slider, curve and change.
Trevor Cahill (39%) – Has a road game versus Hernandez and the Mariners. Cahill has won four straight decisions and in his last seven games he has a 2.43 ERA and a 1.131 WHIP. He is 3-5 with a 4.66 ERA in road games this season. Cahill is 0-2 with a 1.99 ERA in three games against Seattle this year.
Doug Davis (49%) – Has a road start against Sanchez and the Giants. Since the All-Star break, Davis is 4-4 with a 5.14 ERA and a 1.580 WHIP. He is 3-6 with a 4.39 ERA in road starts this season. Against the Giants, Davis is 2-2 with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.545 WHIP.