Archive for Chris Getz

Replacing Dustin Pedroia, In Tiers

So it looks like Dustin Pedroia might be out for the year now that his foot has remained sore. His owners are left crying into their caps, and looking for replacements. Since it’s normally time for a middle infield update anyway, this works out well. We’ll look at possible replacements based on the size of your league. The benchmarks come from Jeff Zimmerman’s article here.

Shallow Leagues (58% owned or less)
If you are lucky, Omar Infante (60% owned) will be out there for you. He is one of the better possibilities for replacing the little-bit-of-power, little-bit-of-speed thing that Pedroia had going, and he is also atop one of the better lineups in the National League. But Infante doesn’t quite hit our benchmark, so Alberto Callaspo (46% owned) has a little more pop than Asdrubal Cabrera (44% owned) and might therefore be a better replacement for the balding Boston ballplayer. Though neither has shown much power or speed this year, it’s Callaspo that has had the best power year (.156 ISO in 2009) between the two and Cabrera that has had the best speed year (5.9 speed score in 2009). Depending on your priorities, they make decent stop-gaps.

12-Team Leagues (26% owned or less)
The options on this level are Orlando Hudson and Ryan Raburn, and both have a little more power than the guys above. Raburn’s currently showing a .176 ISO and has a .186 career number in that category, so he’s the guy to pick up for power. With his strikeout rate (26.2% this year, 25.9% career), he probably won’t put up a Pedroia-an batting average, and his speed has declined from about average (5.1 in 2008, 5.0 is average) to below average (3.8 in 2010) in three years. Hudson will give you a decent batting average as he has been within spitting distance of his .282 career batting average in most years. Unfortunately, he’s in the midst of a four-year decline in his power and now owns a poor ISO (.118). While his speed score is still above average (5.6), he hasn’t cracked double-digit in steals since 2007. Either way, Hudson is the closer comp to the Boston second baseman.

20-Team Leagues (1% owned or less)
Yes, Blake DeWitt is playing every day and is atop a lineup, but he’s also owned in 3% of Yahoo leagues, doesn’t have much pop or speed, and that Cubs lineup isn’t anywhere close to the Red Sox lineup. Well, none of your options in leagues of this size will come close to Pedroia’s excellence, so let’s just get that out of the way. No, of the second basemen owned in 1% of leagues (or less), it’s Chris Getz that is the most interesting. He’s mostly wrested the second base job away from Mike Aviles, but he’s just about as flawed as the man he replaces (or worse). He has no power to speak of (.040 ISO this year, .069 career, .150 ISO is average), and now that he’s 641 plate appearances into his career and showing the same walk rate every year (7.8% this year, 7.3% career), we can say he doesn’t really get on base at an average rate (8.5% walk rate is average this year). Well, he does do one thing. His speed score has stayed above average every year and is decent this year (5.5). He has some wheels. His 13 stolen bases (87% success rate) even means that he could equal a fictionally healthy Pedroia the rest of the way in one category. Unfortunately for deep league owners, it’s just one category.


Rankings Update: Second Base

This update will have to-date wOBA with RoS projections, too!

The Top Targets:
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.445 wOBA, .414 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
2. Ian Kinsler, Texas (.310 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.380 wOBA, .368 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
4. Robinson Cano, New York AL (.459 wOBA, .362 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Nothing to report here, other than an ongoing battle to determine the best real-life young second baseman in the American League, with Boston and New York in distinct camps. It seems that once you include defense the battle shifts north slightly but significantly. For our purposes, it’s nice to note Cano’s strong batted ball profile and career-high flyball percentage, which should both serve him well this year.

The Middling Veterans:
5. Chone Figgins, Seattle (.295 wOBA, .336 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
6. Dan Uggla, Florida (.383 wOBA, .356 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
7. Ian Stewart, Colorado (.384 wOBA, .347 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
8. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (.326 wOBA, .342 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
9. Aaron Hill, Toronto (.327 wOBA, .337 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
10. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.317 wOBA, .351 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
11. Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.255 wOBA, .359 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

There’s some movement here because Roberts is still out and Zobrist is still swinging a limp noodle. Hill lost some ISO too, but he could still put up 2007 stats and be very helpful at this position. The biggest news is the debut of Ian Stewart in this tier. Stewart cut the K’s without losing the power, which means he could have a nicer batting average this year. Since the power and speed are tantalizing, he’s the real streaking youth on this list.

Streaking Youth:
12. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.369 wOBA, .352 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
13. Kelly Johnson, Arizona (.433 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
14. Gordon Beckham, Chicago (.280 wOBA, .339 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Look at what we have here. Kelly Johnson actually bests Ian Stewart by jumping two tiers and streaking right into the upside tier. If he had some speed he might even blow by Weeks, who is doing his customary batting average slump currently but still has his power and speed combo to boast of. Beckham is in danger of dropping out of this tier right here, because he is pressing and striking out too often and just doesn’t look great at the plate right now.

The Leftovers:
14. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.327 wOBA, .340 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
15. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.300 wOBA, .337 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
16. Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.353 wOBA, .343 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Call this the no-power no-speed tier. These guys really should have Martin Prado in here too. Not sure what else to say, really, except that Polanco has a healthy offense around him that boosts his value.

Upside to Join the Top:
17. Casey McGehee, Milwaukee (.392 wOBA, .328 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
18. Martin Prado, Atlanta (.371 wOBA, .349 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
19. Alberto Callaspo, Kansas City (.361 wOBA, .340 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
20. Jose Lopez, Seattle (.237 wOBA, .312 ZiPs Ros wOBA)
21. Ty Wigginton, Baltimore (.432 wOBA, .357 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
22. Chris Getz, Kansas City (.237 wOBA, .316 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Once your season-long power slump is bad enough that it starts affecting your ZiPs RoS projections, it has to be noted. Jose Lopez isn’t even projected to put up his career ISO the rest of the way, so it’s looking like it might be a bad year for him. Because he’s shown more power in the past than Callaspo, he will probably outperform Callaspo… probably. At least the Royals showed confidence in Callaspo by demoting Alex Gordon. (That’s what they were doing, right?) I also know at least one commenter that will be happy to see Chris Getz on this list, and with 2% ownership in Yahoo, he might still be out there for the taking. He could still best his .275/20 SB projections because most of his slump so far looks BABIP-induced.


The Now Available Mike Aviles

The injury to Alex Gordon opens up more playing time this spring for the Royals in the infield. Most of the early speculation has been on Alberto Callaspo and Josh Fields. But one player who should not be counted out is Mike Aviles. After a breakout season in 2008, Aviles crashed last year, mainly due to an injury which required surgery. In Friday’s game that the FanGraphs group caught, Aviles started the game at second base while Callaspo was at third and Fields at first.

Aviles had Tommy John surgery in July. The normal prognosis is for up to a year to come back from the procedure. But Aviles was feeling strong early in camp and there were thoughts he might be ready to play much earlier, possibly even making the Royals as a utility infielder. The plan for the Royals was to give Aviles some early playing time in the Cactus League at second base, where he would not need to use his arm so much to make long throws. And with Gordon going down, it made finding playing time for Aviles even easier.

In his two games so far, Aviles has gone 2-for-3 in each. Additionally, the Royals consider Aviles to be a strong defensive player. Manager Trey Hillman told the Associated Press:

“I asked one of our developmental people if they could identify our most fundamentally sound infielder. Its (sic) Mike Aviles far as textbook fielding a ground ball, approaching a ground ball and doing it right all the time. One of the staff guys grabbed me the other day and said that’s as good as it gets.”

Neither Callaspo nor Betancourt have good defensive reputations. Callaspo put up some good fielding numbers in limited time previously at second base, but was below average last year in 146 games and the perception was even worse than the numbers. Betancourt had a UZR/150 of -23.9 last year, including a -28.6 after being acquired by the Royals.

If Aviles is healthy and has the best defensive option, his playing time might rest with how well he does at the plate. His big year in 2008 was the result of a .357 BABIP. Last year in 36 games he posted just a .223 mark. The projection systems show Aviles with a BABIP ranging from .300-.316 and with an AVG of .270-.284.

If everything goes right, Aviles could produce a .290 AVG with double digit totals in both SB and HR. That could be a nice pot of cheese at the end of your fantasy draft when you are looking to fill your middle infield position.

One other factor to consider is that Chris Getz is on the roster as a contender for playing time at second base. Getz was not overly impressive either offensively or defensively last year, although fantasy leaguers enjoyed his SB output. So, Aviles is potentially vying with both Getz and Callaspo for playing time at second, the position he is likely to play early in the season as he builds up arm strength.

Because of his defensive reputation on the club, Aviles should have a leg up in the competition. And while he may not get a ton of ABs in the spring due to Kansas City spreading them out to all of the contenders, if Aviles proves healthy throughout Cactus League play he has an excellent shot of breaking camp as a starter. And if he does get the playing time, Aviles is a good fantasy option.


“Royal” Middle Infield Continued

When we took a look at the Royal shortstop situation on Thursday, it became obvious that the picture would not be complete without looking at the rest of the middle infield. And, as is our wont when it comes to position battles, we’ll have to consider defense – even if it doesn’t show up in our fantasy box scores.

There’s a lot of love for the incumbent at this position, and for good reason. Alberto Callaspo was, by wOBA, the second-best hitter on the Royals last year. His approach at he plate features gobs of contact (94.5% zone-contact last year, and 87.8% was the league average) and an average walk rate (8.2% last year, 8.9% ML average). Before last year, though, he didn’t show much power. Then he more than doubled his career ISO (.156 last year, previous career high was .071) and shot into fantasy relevance. The projections show some concern about that spike and all of them have him regressing in the power department in 2010. His minor league ISO (.119) would be an item in favor of that approach.

But if Callaspo can make all that contact with average power (.155 ISO is the league average), and play good defense at second base, he should win the battle with Chris Getz, right? Well, defense is an interesting question here. UZR does not love Callaspo, giving him a -2.9 UZR/150 in 209 games while Total Zone had him as pretty much a scratch defender at the position in the minor leagues. The fans? The fans, they don’t love him. The Fans Scouting Report has Callaspo as the fourth-worst fielder on the Royals, just below Jose Guillen. Ouch.

There’s a lack of consensus on the appraisal of the defense in the case of Getz as well. The Fans Scouting Report has him as significantly better in terms of range, speed and first step, giving him an average ranking of 3.3 to Callaspo’s 2.3. UZR doesn’t like him as much, but his -6 UZR/150 has only come in 101 games, so it should be taken with a grain of salt. Total Zone rates him as solid but not spectacular. In any case, the overall picture is one of player that has the chance to be better than Callaspo on defense.

If the Royals agree with assessment and need D, they will get Getz’ glove in there. What will his bat provide? So far it looks like below-average patience (7.1% walk rate), below-average power (.084 ISO), and good speed (7.3 speed score, 5.0 is average). There’s hope for a little more, though. Getz walked more in the minors (10.2%) and players usually improve in that category as they age. He had a sub-.100 minor league ISO, though, so it will only be patience and speed from Getz if he wins the job.

This is a tougher battle to handicap than the shortstop situation. The defensive numbers are not as clear, and the bats in question are somewhat similar. Because Callaspo’s power last year hasn’t been duplicated on the major league level, and because the team decided to acquire another second baseman in a trade, you have to consider that he is on thin ice. Getz does have an option left, and it may behoove the organization to demote him to AAA while they pump up Callaspo’s value and perhaps trade him mid-season. If Callaspo’s already shaky defense gets worse as he ages, he will only become less valuable in the coming years. His bat gives him the current leg up, and Callaspo should get regular at-bats somewhere on the field no matter how this battle shakes down, but neither one of these guys gets an unequivocal thumbs up because of the risk, and they only make late-round fliers in deep leagues at best.


“Royal” Middle Infield

There is no greater intersection of fantasy and ‘real’ baseball analysis than the Spring Position Battle. How better to reap the rewards of good number-crunching than the correct prediction of the winner of the lion’s share of playing time at a given position? It’s one of fantasy baseball’s best moments.

And there’s no easier place to look for this feeling than the worst teams in baseball. The worse the team, the younger the team, the more likely they’ll allow an inexperienced young man to steer the helm at a given position. The Pirates, for example, currently have 30(!) players with three years or fewer experience on their 40-man roster.

Follow this string of thought to the end, and you’ll inevitably end up looking at the team being run by the worst GM in baseball (if Tim Marchman is to be believed). There might be some debate about whether or not it’s more important to feature your best players up the middle, but it’s got to be a given that it’s not a good sign to go into camp not knowing who is going to make up your keystone combo. (The name of that combo should really be a clue.)

So we come to the Royals. At the incumbent starting shortstop position stands Yuniesky Betancourt. By WAR, he was the worst position player that qualified for the batting title last year, costing the Royals $2.2 million on top of his $3.375 million salary. He accomplished this (little) feat by walking only 4.1% of the time while also displaying below-average speed (3.9 speed score, 5.0 average) and power (.106 ISO, .155 MLB average). The worst part for such a ‘key’ defensive position? He had a -23.9 UZR/150 last year, which would be less worrisome if he didn’t also feature a negative rating for his career. I’m struggling to find something good to say, but apparently his demeanor can be even worse than his performance.

Let’s just say he doesn’t offer too much of an obstacle, should, say, Mike Aviles step to the fore. Aviles was once a too-old for his leagues prospect that tore his way through to the major leagues with good contact rates and not much else. He was once over-rated, yes, but now seems under-rated. His injury hurt his good contact rates (90.7% in the zone down to 85.6% last year) and sapped his average power (.155 ISO down to .067 last year). As exhibits in his favor, I submit his minor league ISO (.167) as well as minor league walk and strikeout rates that were virtually identical to his rookie year numbers. Aviles may not have been as good as he looked his rookie year, but he wasn’t as bad as he was last year.

In defense of his defense, there’s no real evidence that it’s terrible, despite the fact that he’s played all over the diamond and his general manager had the (misguided) idea that he needed to acquire another shortstop. His UZR/150 was great in his rookie year (+31.6 UZR/150) and bad last year (-12.7 UZR/150), but Total Zone had him as a positive defender at shortstop in the minors. The Fan Scouting Report pegged him as better than Betancourt even in his poor ’09. Aviles scored better than his competitor/teammate in every category… but arm strength. And now he’s coming off of Tommy John surgery. On the other hand, we must consider the case of Cesar Izturis, who had TJ surgery in 2005 and last year the fans say he sported an arm that was a little better than Stephen Drew‘s and a little worse than Jason Bartlett’s. Izturis had surgery on 9/16/2005 and returned in mid-June 2006. Aviles had his surgery 9/07/2009.

The normal caveats apply. This is is the Royals, we have no idea what’s going on at second base with Alberto Callaspo and Chris Getz (a post for another time), and every recovering arm is different, but in the interest of being unequivocal: By mid-June Mike Aviles should be starting at shortstop for the Royals.


Deep League Value: Second Base

When we checked the second base position on Thursday, it seemed that the position offered a lot of empty batting average place holders that can be scooped up late in a draft. Freddy Sanchez, Skip Schumaker and possibly Placido Polanco (once he gets himself a new job) all should hit over .300 next year and also won’t do anything else for you. They key is to find a guy that can give you something other than a bucketful of singles that you can draft in the same neighborhood.

Is Martin Prado that man? Prado could be the rare player that puts up better results in the major leagues than he ever did in the minors. He amassed over 2100 plate appearances in the minors, with a .393 slugging percentage. 850+ plate appearances into his big league career, he’s sporting a .450+ slugging percentage. Will the good times continue for the man that was just declared the starting second baseman for the Braves in 2010?

The good news is that his power profile actually took a step forward last year. His HR/FB went up (from 2.8 to 7.6%) while hitting more fly balls (from 35.3% to 36.5%). His ISO went up from .140 to .158, too. Also heartening is the fact that these numbers, though modest, have stayed relatively steady while in the majors. His BABIP looks a little high (.339 lifetime) but his xBABIP for his career (.316) is also above-average, and his high line drive rates (20.4% career) are healthy as well. We also know that Prado can handle the most common pitch in baseball (+15 runs on the fastball). Although it’s a little nerve-wracking to look at his anemic minor league numbers, Prado is a good bet to hit over .300 with 15 home runs in a full season of starter’s innings.

A newly minted position battle in Kansas City should produce one good sleeper out of two very different players. You own Chris Getz for steals and Alberto Callaspo for a little pop and batting average (a lot like Prado, actually).

Callaspo has a lot going for him. He repeated his good Royals debut in 2009 and instantly went on 2010 sleeper lists. He’s a high-contact hitter (91% career contact rate) with sneaky wheels (4.1 career speed score) and a good line drive stroke (19.3% career), so a good batting average is a steady part of the package he brings to the table. The biggest positive in 2009 was that he added a little power by vastly improving his fly ball rate (from 27.5% to 41.9%), but it’s the power that goes in and out for him. Just check his oscillating slugging percentage and fly ball rate for proof.

Defense will have to be part of the discussion, and Callaspo suffers by both not being great at second base (-7.5 UZR/150) and also by being capable all around the infield (400+ innings of positive UZR at SS and 3B). Getz was better defensively at second and also doesn’t boast the same history of utility play. It’s hard to see how much the Royals value defense, but this has to be a chip in Getz’ favor.

It’s not like Getz doesn’t have his own things going for him on offense. Obviously, he has plus speed (26/29 stolen bases in 117 career games), but he needs to put up a solid batting average to win the position because his slugging ability is inferior to Callaspo’s. In the high minors since 2006, Getz has walked close to 10% of the time, and when he had a BABIP near .280, he had a batting average like his poor 2009 season. But when he had a BABIP over .320, his batting average jumped to .300. Give Getz a .300 batting average and five or six steals in spring training and I believe you are looking at your new Royals starting second baseman. Callaspo may still have value as the org’s super-utility guy, especially since there are other holes on the infield (1B and SS) and also some oft-injured guys on that squad. In any case, Getz’ speed is the only plus fantasy tool between these two players, so therefore he is a step ahead for fantasy purposes.


Traded: Mark Teahen for Chris Getz, Josh Fields

The Chicago White Sox organization has traded rookie second baseman Chris Getz and disappointing third baseman Josh Fields, a former first round draft pick, to the Kansas City Royals for infielder/outfielder Mark Teahen.

With a .323 wOBA in ’09, Teahen is nothing special as a hitter, especially for someone who spends most of his time at third base or in right field. The 28-year-old posted a 0.3 WAR in ’09 and was a both a below-average hitter and a below-average fielder at every position he played at. For fantasy managers, Teahen has value simply because of his versatility; he should be eligible for third base and the outfield in all formats, while he also appeared in 11 games at first base and three games at second base. He is good for a batting average of about .250-270 and, if he plays everyday, he should produce 12-18 homers, although the move to Chicago could inflate his offensive numbers. With the outfield depth looking pretty good, Teahen should see everyday duty at third base with Gordon Beckham moving back to his natural position at shortstop and Alexei Ramirez sliding back to second base.

Fields wore out his welcome in Chicago in ’09 with another disappointing season. He hit just .222/.301/.347 in 239 at-bats and was eventually pushed aside by Beckham. Fields will turn 27 in December so time is running out for him to reclaim the form that saw him slug 23 homers in 373 at-bats for the White Sox in ’07. Even then, though, he hit just .244/.308/.480. He has enough power to be valuable in deep AL formats, but he will likely do a lot of damage in batting average and he doesn’t get on base enough to help in runs. Fields made 17 appearances at first base in ’09 so he should be eligible there, as well as at the hot corner. Don’t expect him to see much playing time if Alex Gordon can turn things around.

The White Sox organization parts ways with Getz after handing the rookie the starting second base job in ’09. The 26-year-old infielder missed time with injuries but he hit .261/.324/.347 in 375 at-bats and stole 25 bases in 27 attempts. His speed makes him an interesting fantasy player, as he should improve offensively in ’10, although the lineup around him could be weaker. Getz isn’t going to drive in runs so he needs to improve his walk rate (7.4%) so he can throw up a better runs-scored total. He was overpowered by good fastballs in ’09, but hopefully that was caused – at least somewhat – by the broken finger and oblique injuries (His slugging percentage plummeted in the last two months of the season). Because of his speed, Getz is potentially a better fantasy option at second base than Royals incumbent Alberto Callaspo, who probably won’t drive in 70+ runs again and his power output exceeded expectations based on his minor-league numbers. Monitor the race in spring training, though, to see if Getz will earn enough playing time to be of value.


Waiver Wire Watch for Week 23

It is never too late to improve your team! Here are five players available on the waiver wire under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your squad for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Chris B. Young (33%) – It has been a brutal season for Young, who currently finds his average beneath the Mendoza line. But he has 4 HR in nine games since his recall from Triple-A, including a 3-HR game. Power like that is usually not sitting on the waiver wire and for those hoping to move up in HR, it is a gamble worth taking that he can hit a few more the rest of the month. Young had 32 HR in 2007.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Wade Davis (24%) – By now everyone is aware of Davis’ major league debut, when he allowed just three hits and one run in seven innings and struck out nine batters. He reached 94 on the radar gun and averaged 92.2 in his first start for Tampa Bay. In parts of two seasons in Triple-A, Davis was 14-10 with 195 strikeouts in 211.2 IP.

Under 20 Percent Owned

Chris Getz (17%) – Back from a strained right oblique, Getz is batting .333 with 4 SB in seven games after being out for nearly three weeks. The average probably will not be that good for the rest of the year but Getz does bring speed to the table. If you are looking for steals down the stretch, he can be a valuable addition.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Tim Redding (3%) – In his last three games, all against teams in the playoff hunt, Redding is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA with 15 SO in 18.1 IP. He spent a good deal of time this year in the bullpen but Redding should be in the rotation for the rest of the season. He is not as glamorous as a hot rookie like Davis, but he throws strikes and has a chance to pick up a few wins down the stretch.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Alberto Callaspo (49%) – A second baseman with a good AVG and decent R totals, Callaspo is a starting quality player. Recently he has been on a hot streak with RBIs, too. In his last 15 games, Callaspo has .302-1-10-5-1 line, with eight of those RBIs coming in the past five games.


Rookie Watcher: Mediocrity Abounds

It’s been a couple of weeks since we last took a look at the Rookie of the Year races in both the American and National leagues, so let’s have a look at how the top freshman hitters in Major League Baseball are doing.

The American League:

Chris Getz (Chicago, 2B): Despite being slowed by a broken finger, Getz has pretty much done everything you could hope for from a second baseman: He’s played good defense, run a little bit, and hit for a respectable average (.274). Now at the top of the order, his .340 on-base average could be a little more impressive if he walked a bit more (6.7 BB%) but he’s putting the ball in play (9.5 K%). Getz is not having a flashy season, but it may be the most consistent amongst the rookies in the American League.

Elvis Andrus (Texas, SS): If you prefer flashy, Andrus is your man. The 20 year old’s defense (and range) is one of the main reasons why Texas is in first place in the American League West. His defense is only going to get better by watching (and listening) to veteran teammate Omar Vizquel. Offensively, he’s not embarrassing himself with a line of .273/.312/.409 but he could stand to run a little bit more on the base paths. After stealing 54 bases in 118 games in 2008, he has just three steals so far this season in the Majors.

Travis Snider (Toronto, LF): Batting ninth in Toronto’s potent (right now, anyway), first-place lineup, Snider is having an inconsistent season mainly due to his eagerness at the plate. He is swinging at pitchers’ pitches right now and not being patient enough. His line of .250/.305/.420 is a bit of a disappointment, but his strikeout rate of 20.5 K% is encouraging for a young slugger, who hasn’t been playing his best – especially considering his career rate was around 30 K% entering 2009.

Brett Gardner (New York, CF): During the course of the past two seasons, Gardner has combined to hit .228/.284/.290 in 70 big league games, which won’t cut it for most if not all teams – and definitely not the New York Yankees. With a career ISO below .100 and a walk rate under 10%, the 25-year-old rookie is quickly fading into a role as a fourth or fifth outfielder. And he likely has a smaller window of time to turn things around than many prospects would.

The National League:

Cameron Maybin (Florida, CF): It has been a disappointing season for the former No. 1 prospect, who was sent down to triple-A this past weekend. His line of .202/.280/.310, though, was just not cutting it, especially for a team battling to hold on to first place in the National League East division.

Travis Ishikawa (San Francisco, 1B): Ishikawa is another rookie that has been struggling, despite being platooned by the Giants. Overall, he is hitting just .219/.284/.288 with zero homers in 73 at-bats. The left-handed batter is hitting just .224 against right-handers. Jesus Guzman and John Bowker, both of whom can play 1B, are hitting very well in triple-A.

Chris Dickerson (Cincinnati, OF): In his last six games, Dickerson has received just six at-bats, while minor league journeymen Laynce Nix has seen an increase in playing time. Yes, Dickerson is scuffling (.197/.316/.288) but riding the pine is not going to help him. The Reds have a team loaded with young talent, but I maintain manager Dusty Baker should be in charge of a club that relies on veteran rosters – He’s not the right person to develop and guide young players.

Dexter Fowler (Colorado, CF): Fowler finally received regular playing time but after stealing five bases in one game on April 27, he’s gone just 3-for-14 (.214) with zero stolen bases and no extra base hits. His line is down to .258/.333/.382 and the Rockies organization is loaded with outfielders so he needs to get back on track.

Jordan Schafer (Atlanta, CF): He popped two homers in the first three games of his MLB career, but Schafer has not gone deep since (29 games and counting). More troubling is the fact that he has just two extra base hits in May, along with 20 strikeouts in 12 games. On the positive side, he does have 23 walks on the season (17.8 BB%).

Colby Rasmus (St. Louis, CF): It’s been a bad year for the rookie center fielders. Fowler and Rasmus are the best hitters of the bunch. Rasmus’ triple-slash line is an uninspiring .256/.337/.349. He’s actually hitting pretty good against right-handed pitching with a .299 average, but he is 2-for-19 against southpaws (.105 average). Rasmus could end up in a platoon role soon if he doesn’t show signs of improving in that area.

So, what other rookie hitters should we begin watching in the American and National leagues?


Prospect Watcher: Brett Gardner

Games: Sunday, April 12, 2009

Brett Gardner | CF | New York
Versus Kansas City and RHP Gil Meche

At-Bat 1:

  • Result: Single to center
  • Pitcher: Gil Meche (RHP)
  • Situation: Leading off the game | 3-2 count
  • Pitch: Slider | Inside and middle (strike) | 89 mph

    At-Bat 2:

  • Result: Fly out to LF
  • Pitcher: Gil Meche (RHP)
  • Situation: Third inning, one out, none on | 3-1 count
  • Pitch: Fastball | Outside and high (strike) | 90 mph

    At-Bat 3:

  • Result: Grounds to SS for double play
  • Pitcher: Gil Meche (RHP)
  • Situation: Sixth inning, one on, none out | 0-0 count
  • Pitch: Fastball | Low and away (strike) | 89 mph

    At-Bat 4:

  • Result: Fly out to RF
  • Pitcher: Juan Cruz (RHP)
  • Situation: Eighth inning, none out, none on | 2-2 count
  • Pitch: Change-up | Middle and low (strike) | 83 mph

    Notes: Gardner had perhaps his best at-bat of the season against KC ace Gil Meche in the first inning of this game. He did exactly what the lead-off hitter should do: See a lot of pitches and get on base. He made Meche throw seven pitches and the outfielder laced a single to center on the final toss of the match-up. That is the type of approach he needs to take each and every game if he is going to hold on to the center-field job in New York long term.

    American League:

    Chris Getz | 2B | Chicago
    Opponent: RHP Nick Blackburn (Minnesota)
    Result: 0-for-3, 2 LOB
    Trending: 1-for-13 in his last four games
    Notes: Switching Dewayne Wise for Getz at the top of the order has really not helped the White Sox. The club desperately needs a leadoff hitter. Getz is better as the No. 2 or No. 9 man at this point.

    Elvis Andrus | SS | Texas
    Opponent: RHP Edwin Jackson (Detroit)
    Result: 1-for-3, run scored
    Trending: His OBP is just .294.
    Notes: Andrus has a hit in all but one of the five MLB games he’s appeared in.

    Travis Snider | LF | Toronto
    Opponent: RHP Anthony Reyes (Cleveland)
    Result: 0-for-2, with a sacrifice and 1 LOB
    Trending: .250 vs LHPs, .250 vs RHPs
    Notes: Snider was back in the line-up on Sunday after sitting while the club faced two southpaw starters.

    National League:

    Travis Ishikawa | 1B | San Francisco
    Opponent: RHP Chris Young (San Diego)
    Result: 0-for-3, 1 LOB
    Trending: No at-bats versus left-handed pitching
    Notes: Ishikawa hasn’t driven in a run since plating three on opening day.

    Chris Dickerson | OF | Cincinnati
    Opponent: RHP Ian Snell (Pittsburgh)
    Result: 1-for-2, two walks
    Trending: 4 walks in 4 games
    Notes: So far this season in a small sample size, Dickerson is showing an improved approach at the plate, which has led to more walks and fewer strikeouts.

    Dexter Fowler | OF | Colorado
    Opponent: RHP Chan Ho Park (Philadelphia)
    Result: 2-for-5, solo homer, K
    Trending: More HRs (2) than SB (1)
    Notes: Early on, Fowler is showing a little more power (2 hrs in 13 at-bats) than expected

    Jordan Schafer | CF | Atlanta
    Opponent: LHP Scott Olsen (Washington)
    Result: 0-for-4, three Ks
    Trending: 1-for-8 in day games
    Notes: Schafer was 5-for-9 in his first two games against Washington on the weekend before the three-strikeout performance on Sunday.

    Colby Rasmus | CF | St. Louis
    Opponent: LHP Wandy Rodriguez (Houston)
    Result: 0-for-2, run, BB, K
    Trending: 1-for-7 vs LHPs
    Notes: His average is down, but Rasmus has walked five times with just two strikeouts in six games.

    Cameron Maybin | CF | Florida
    Opponent: LHP Johan Santana (New York)
    Result: 1-for-4, two Ks
    Trending: Four two-strikeout games in his five starts in 2009
    Notes: Maybin has yet to drive in a run or take a walk this season.