Archive for Carlos Villanueva

I don’t know if anyone has told you people yet, but it’s only April and the data we are looking at right now comes from what is known around these parts as a very small sample size. What that means is that there are still five more months….yes, months….of baseball still and numerous players will receive anywhere from 400 to 500 more plate appearances between now and the end of the season. Take a moment. Drink that in. Think about it for a few seconds. And while you do, remember this: a bad trade reputation spreads a lot faster around your league than a good reputation. Unless your league is filled with complete idiots (and that may very well be the case for some of you), your testing of the waters with ludicrous trade offers that you yourself would never accept in a million years is going to potentially come back and bite you in the ass. Read the rest of this entry »

If you’re looking for pitchers to stream or if you’re looking for potentially cheap options in daily, salary-cap formats, here are a few options for week two that are widely available and almost certain to be fairly cheap.

Joe Blanton | Los Angeles Angels | Home to Oakland on Wednesday

We all know exactly what Joe Blanton is. He’s a guy with slightly above average strikeout skills and a great walk rate. Unfortunately, he lives in the zone too much and has a problem with home runs as a result. But in the right ballparks Blanton is capable of being a good fantasy spot starter. Despite the fact that he moved to the AL this offseason, it was nice to see him sign with the Angels because his new home ballpark suppresses home runs at an above average rate.

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Here is the latest update to Week 8 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Worley, Villanueva

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Chacin, McCarthy, Ross, Litsch, Blanton.

Let’s take a look at Carlos Villanueva, who is getting his first starts of the season after making 13 relief appearances.

The Blue Jays acquired Villanueva from the Brewers for a player to be named later following the 2010 season. He spent his first five seasons with Milwaukee bouncing back between starting and relieving for the first four years. Last year he worked exclusively out of the bullpen and at one point seemed to be in the mix for the closer’s job which eventually went to John Axford.

Villanueva has a starting pitcher’s repertoire, with a four-pitch arsenal. However, he has fared much better in short relief, with an ERA nearly a run lower when he works out of the bullpen throughout his career.

The 27-year old has always done a good job of racking up strikeouts but has struggled in most other areas. He’s a flyball pitcher with an elevated HR/FB rate. His success early this year can be attributed to a HR/FB rate half of what it was in 2010. Of course a .148 BABIP doesn’t hurt, either.

Villanueva has a tough game in Yankee Stadium and follows that up with a home start against the White Sox. The Yankees lead the AL in HR by a comfortable margin and the White Sox are above average with 44 HR going into Sunday.

If Villanueva can keep the ball in the park, he has a shot, especially against a Chicago squad that has struggled to score runs in long stretches this season. But given Villanueva’s history, that is a pretty big if, especially with these being his first starts of the year.

Last Sunday week we looked at Kyle Davies, who ended up pitching just 0.2 innings before landing on the disabled list with a sore shoulder.

Trevor Hoffman just blew his fourth save of the season in seven chances. He has already given up six home runs this year, a number which he has only surpassed once in the last nine years. Nine years. He’s not walking anybody still, but he’s also not striking anybody out (4.5 per nine).

The pitching mix is off. It’s hard to tell if it’s just a sample size thing, but all of a sudden Hoffman is actually favoring his 85 MPH “heater” over his changeup (+43.4 runs career), and it’s not doing him any favors. Why is he throwing the changeup at a career low rate (17.8% this year, 29% career)? It could be injury, and a DL stint may be on the way.

Time for a little rampant speculation for his replacement. Here are the candidates, with some relevant statistical information.

LaTroy Hawkins, 8.62 ERA, 4.03 xFIP, 3.79 career xFIP, 225/277 career holds+saves / opps, 1.20 2010 gmLI
Carlos Villanueva, 0.00 ERA, 2.62 xFIP, 4.19 career xFIP, 44/51 career holds+saves / opps, 0.83 2010 gmLI
Todd Coffey, 3.72 ERA, 4.89 xFIP, 3.99 career xFIP, 67/79 career holds+saves / opps, 0.72 2010 gmLI

Coffey isn’t killing it right now, and he doesn’t have a great history of racking up saves when given the chance. His career xFIP is pretty good, but just judging from when his manager is choosing to use him this year, he doesn’t seem like the guy.

Villanueva, on the other hand, is killing it this year and also took up the closer mantle late last year when Hoffman went down. His career xFIP is misleading, as he’s racked up 27 starts worth of innings which most definitely had a higher xFIP than he’s put up as a reliever. Brian Joura just talked him up two days ago as a good dark horse candidate for saves. In fact, he might be my choice for closing… if I were running the Brewers.

Unfortunately, I am not. (I mean unfortunately for me, I don’t pretend to know exactly what is right for the Brewers in this situation.) Instead, it seems most likely to be LaTroy Hawkins, who incidentally also owns the highest salary of the group. Despite a poor ERA, Hawkins has been performing right around his career levels. But most importantly, his manager is running him out there in important situations. He has the highest leverage index upon entering games (gmLI), and it seems we could use that as a proxy for “Manager Confidence” in this case. Hawkins looks like the pickup if you are speculatin’.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

In a bit of a surprise, the Blue Jays started Cecil in the minors after he posted a decent rookie season in 2009. But he got the call to the majors after going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in two games in the Pacific Coast League. Cecil replaced Brian Tallet in the rotation and had a strong first start. He gave up two runs in six innings in Tampa Bay before allowing a two-run HR to Gabe Kapler in the seventh. Cecil has the chance to post good strikeout numbers and a league-average ERA if he can do a better job of keeping the ball in the park. In 100 IP in the majors, Cecil has a 6.93 K/9 and a 15.1 HR/FB rate.

David Freese, St. Louis Cardinals (owned in 5% of Yahoo! leagues)

In four seasons in the minors, Freese hit for both AVG and power. So far this season with the Cardinals, Freese has a .300 AVG but no home runs. He has an unsustainable .417 BABIP but he also has been having some issue with strikeouts, carrying a 30.0 K%. If he can start hitting a few home runs and cut down some on the strikeouts, he could survive the inevitable BABIP drop. Updated ZiPS projects him to finish with a .273 AVG and 11 HR, which is nice production off the waiver wire for third base.

Carlos Villanueva, Milwaukee Brewers (owned in 9% of Yahoo! leagues)

Always a good strikeout pitcher, Villanueva has 14 strikeouts in 10 IP so far this season. The rest of his early numbers are nearly as impressive, as he finally seems to have found a home as a reliever after bouncing back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen the past four years in Milwaukee. Villanueva has pitched in the eighth inning in three of his last four appearances. Perhaps this is the year that 42-year old Trevor Hoffman finally gives out, as his early season numbers are not confidence-inspiring. Villanueva would have to be under consideration along with Todd Coffey and LaTroy Hawkins as potential replacements. Hawkins has never really succeeded in multiple shots as a closer and Coffey has pitched in the eighth or ninth inning just three times in 10 outings this year, and all three of those were in mop-up roles. Add Villanueva for his fine pitching in middle relief and consider him a darkhorse candidate for saves.