This is part of an ongoing pro/con series on RotoGraphs over the next couple of weeks. Today we’ll look at the positive/negative side of Carlos Santana. Expect the opposite side shortly.
Carlos Santana, Carlos Santana, Carlos Santana! How come every time I write an article about catchers, some fool comes in here and brings up Carlos Santana? Read the rest of this entry »
As we get ready to head into a new month, it’s time to update the 2011 Catchers Rankings once again. Remember, the criteria for these rankings is as follows:
| 1. Current performance level |
| 2. Expected performance for rest of season |
| 3. Value based on standard 5×5 categories (avg over OBP) |
The arrows are used to highlight a player moving up or down in tier, but you’ll also notice some minor tweaks within the tiers as well. Some that will obviously have more impact than others. Read the rest of this entry »
As important as matchups are to Pick Six (for more, see last week’s strategy post), the most important aspect of the game is to pick players that are good values at their positions. Today, I’ll give a run down on some of the better (and poorer) values at the first two positions in Pick Six: Catcher and Corner Infield. The numbers I’ll report are projected Points per Plate Apperance (Pts/PA), based on a weighted average of Oliver and PECOTA projections (a bit more weight to Oliver, because it’s more current). YMMV depending on your preferred projection system, or your own adjustments to these systems. Also, keep in mind that prices change weekly, and so this just represents a snapshot look at player value and may be obsolete by next week!
Carlos Santana, $34.25, 1.42 Pts/PA
Brian McCann, $32.25, 1.37 Pts/PA
Buster Posey, $35.50, 1.33 Pts/PA
With the calendar flipping to May, it’s time to re-visit the 2011 Catcher Rankings and see who has climbed closer to the top and who’s been dropping like a stone. As you may recall, the RotoGraph writers got together before the season began and constructed a composite catcher rankings. However, after gaining some feedback from all of you, I have decided to make my adjustments to the rankings based on the following criteria:
| 1. Current performance level |
| 2. Expected performance for rest of season |
| 3. Value based on standard 5×5 categories (avg over OBP) |
The arrows are used to highlight a player moving up or down in tier, but you’ll also notice some minor tweaks within the tiers as well. Some that will obviously have more impact than others. So without further ado, you may now cue the theme song to The Jeffersons… Read the rest of this entry »
Negotiating trades in fantasy baseball can always be tough in competitive leagues. Everyone is trying to gain the upper hand and each time you ask for that better starting pitcher or that more powerful outfielder, you end up taking some kind of grief for over-valuing your own players. So why not try and get that extra boost in numbers from a low-profile spot like behind the plate? Negotiate a deal and then try to throw in your over-performing catcher for their under-performing one who you think has the potential to improve. You just might be able to squeeze some more out from their end. Looking at early season BABIP and xBABIP, here’s a look at some “throw-ins” you just might want to try out… Read the rest of this entry »
OK, RotoGraphers. Your Monday morning cup of coffee from this week forward will be accompanied by some sort of discussion revolving around catchers and all the fantasy deliciousness they provide. Since the season has yet to begin and several of you are still waiting to draft, let’s talk about when is the best time to grab your help behind the dish. Is it wise to invest a late 2nd/early 3rd round pick on Joe Mauer or is the position deep enough to wait until later? Fresh cup of java in hand….let’s get to it… Read the rest of this entry »
The 2011 baseball season is almost upon us, so we here at RotoGraphs put our collective heads together to come up with some aggregate positional rankings. I’ll be taking the lead all year with the catchers, but as a group, here’s what we came up with for now:
| Penthouse on Park Avenue |
| Joe Mauer |
| Brian McCann |
| Buster Posey |
| Victor Martinez |
Despite last year’s power decline, we know the potential is there so Mauer gets the nod for the top spot. Welcome to the big time, Buster!
| Comfy Living |
| Carlos Santana |
| Geovany Soto |
| Mike Napoli |
| Jorge Posada |
| Matt Wieters |
Happy to have any one of these guys on my roster. Santana is on the rise, but this could be the last chance for Wieters in the fantasy trust department.
| Small House in the ‘Burbs |
| Kurt Suzuki |
| Miguel Montero |
| Chris Iannetta |
| Russell Martin |
| Carlos Ruiz |
| John Buck |
| Yadier Molina |
Stable group of guys who can just tow the line for your backstop position. Martin could be a nice sleeper in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.
| Shoebox Apartment |
| John Jaso |
| A.J. Pierzynski |
| Miguel Olivo |
| Ryan Doumit |
| J.P. Arencibia |
| Josh Thole |
| Rod Barajas |
| Ryan Hanigan |
| Jesus Montero |
No major investment needs to be made here. Some will rise, some will fall. Arencibia’s power potential puts him at the top of the sleeper list.
| Sharing a Room |
| Yorvit Torrealba |
| Jarrod Saltalamcchia |
| Jonathan Lucroy |
| Alex Avila |
| Nick Hundley |
| Chris Snyder |
Maybe a pair of diamonds in the rough in Lucroy and Snyder, but I wouldn’t want to invest more than a buck on the rest of the lot.
| Shanty-town |
| Jason Kendall |
| Jason Castro |
| Ramon Hernandez |
| Kelly Shoppach |
| Wilson Ramos |
| Ivan Rodriguez |
You’ve got to be pretty desperate to be living with these guys on your roster.
We’ll all be chiming in throughout the week with more detailed thoughts on some of the backstops and the overall rankings will be updated on a monthly basis, so stay tuned for more!
Earlier in the week we showed that you can still get a comparative advantage over your fellow drafters by drafting an elite catcher that will rack up 10-12% more plate appearances than other catchers. But that’s only half the picture – what the catchers do with their plate appearances is the rest of the picture. If you can’t get too much of a comparative advantage in terms of the other statistics, the plate appearances won’t matter much.
In order to do that, we’ll take a look at some of the projections for catchers that should go early and catchers that go later. We’ll use draft picks from the Stupidly Early Mock Draft over at RotoHardball.com to approximate ADP (but there’s more help coming from RG when it comes to rankings and mocks, don’t worry).
First, let’s just take the Bill James projections for the top 12 catchers, grouped not in tiers, but just in groups of four. These jerry-rigged tiers will allow us to compare the top, middle, and bottom catchers without too much discussion about getting them into the correct tiers. A straight average of the groups should put this into focus.
2.10 Joe Mauer .338 BA, 15 HR, 3 SB, 93 R, 87 RBI
4.1 Brian McCann .280 BA, 24 HR, 4 SB, 68 R, 94 RBI
4.2 Victor Martinez .298 BA, 19 HR, 1 SB, 69 R, 88 RBI
4.3 Buster Posey .308 BA, 21 HR, 1 SB, 74 R, 83 RBI
Top-“Tier” Average: .306 BA, 20 HR, 2 SB, 76 R, 88 RBI
7.5 Geovany Soto .276 BA, 20 HR, 0 SB, 56 R, 72 RBI
7.8 Carlos Santana .280 BA, 22 HR, 7 SB, 83 R, 91 RBI
9.4 Matt Wieters .288 BA, 16 HR, 0 SB, 55 R, 74 RBI
12.11 Mike Napoli .246 BA, 24 HR, 4 SB, 62 R, 66 RBI
Mid-“Tier” Average: .273 BA, 21 HR, 3 SB, 64 R, 76 RBI
14.6 Jorge Posada .260 BA, 16 HR, 2 SB, 49 R, 60 RBI
14.7 Miguel Montero .273 BA, 14 HR, 0 SB, 51 R, 58 RBI
15.9 Ryan Hanigan .281 BA, 5 HR, 0 SB, 39 R, 37 RBI
16.12 Kurt Suzuki .266 BA, 13 HR, 4 SB, 65 R, 73 RBI
Bottom-“Tier” Average: .270 BA, 12 HR, 1 SB, 51 R, 57 RBI
It looks like you get what you pay for, but the middle tier might get you the best value. The bottom tier looks pretty bad, but if you replace Hanigan with John Buck, whose projections are a little rosier (.248 BA, 17 HR, 0 SB, 47 R, 60 RBI), then your averages for the bottom tier look a little nicer – .262 BA, 15 HR, 53 R, 63 RBI.
While the top three in plate appearances will show a comparative advantage over the rest of the field, plate appearances can be hard to predict. Going by projected performance, it looks like the best plan may be to wait, but not wait too long.
In this week’s ADP Crowdsourcing results, I am very happy with what we came up with.
Buster Posey
My vote: 38 (expected), 55 (you)
Average: 39, 51
Median: 40, 52.5
Std Dev: 17.7, 25.3
The biggest factor is that we think Posey will be overrated by a majority of owners. We’re expecting Posey to go in the early fourth round in most cases, and I can back that up with mock drafts I have done this offseason. In a lot of cases, we’ll see Posey go at the 3-4 turn unless those owners are averse to drafting catchers early. The second half of the question is where we’d be willing to take him, and the answer makes a ton of sense. Waiting until the middle of the fifth round to take Posey helps to mitigate some of the risks involved with drafting a young catcher by allowing you to select an extra stud beforehand in the fourth. I may not actually take him around pick 52 because I’m not one to take a catcher early unless I see tremendous value, but he slips to the late fifth or early sixth, it’d be too tempting to stay away.
Carlos Santana
My vote: 85, 72
Average: 80, 70
Median: 85, 80
Std Dev: 28.6, 25.4
Unlike Posey, it looks like we’re expecting Santana to be underrated by the majority of owners. Santana had a lot of hype early in his debut, but his brutal-looking injury made a lot of people either forget about him or simply ignore him because of the possible risks involved. Santana’s numbers from last season suggest he’ll be a top catcher if he’s healthy, possibly even ranking him alongside Posey. But the risk involved makes it harder to draft him as high as Posey will be, so taking him a couple rounds later is a safe bet. I like it, and I’d be willing to take a chance on Santana in the early seventh.
ADP Crowdsourcing is back with a slightly different format, and now with the second half of a pair of related players. Just like earlier in the week, we are still voting on where you think the player will be drafted (just like we did before), but also where you would take him.
Before Buster Posey took the league by storm, there was Carlos Santana. Santana was called up by the Indians in mid-June and absolutely dominated. His minor league numbers were always impressive, but it’s hard to expect such an immediate impact from a catcher. Santana hit six bombs in less than 200 plate appearances, and had a walk rate around 20%! Small sample sizes be damned, I’m giddy just thinking about Santana’s debut.
Santana’s rookie season was ended by another rookie in Ryan Kalish, who slid into Santana while he was blocking the plate. Given the images of the impact, it’s a wonder Santana still has a career in front of him, but he’s supposed to be ready for baseball come spring training. Santana is nothing if not impressive, so he’ll probably be playing the National Anthem on his guitar, too.
If not for the injury, Santana may be getting all of the hype that comes with being a young catching stud. But owners are going to have to proceed cautiously, and the common man may not even be excited about Santana due to his BABIP lowered batting average.
Like Buster Posey’s crowdsourcing earlier this week, we are still voting on where you think Santana will be drafted by the average owner, but we’re going to take it a step further. We are also going to vote on where you would draft him, as well. Should make for good times. Also, please note we are using pick, not round this time because of Santana’s likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.
To submit your vote, click here.