Archive for Cameron Maybin

Florida loves its rookies. Cameron Maybin has been a top prospect since high school and he was taken by the Detroit Tigers with the 10th overall pick of the 2005 draft. Maybin was also the key trading chip (along with pitcher Andrew Miller) that sent Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Detroit prior to the 2008 season.

After spending the majority of the 2008 season in Double-A, Maybin is poised to enter 2009 as the Marlins’ starting center-fielder. The athletic, right-handed hitter batted .500 (16-for-32) in a brief MLB trial in late 2008 with the Marlins. He stolen four bases in eight games, but also whiffed eight times. Maybin could be one of those players, not unlike Florida shortstop Hanley Ramirez, that rises to the occasion, basks in the spotlight, and posts better numbers in the Majors than he did in the minors.

Last season in Double-A, Maybin hit .277/.375/.456 with 13 homes and 21 stolen bases in 390 at-bats. He also posted a respectable walk rate of 13.3 BB%, but a high strikeout rate of 31.8 K%, which could very well hurt his batting average early in his career if it does not improve.

Maybin can impact a game in a number of different ways. He has raw power and should be good for 15-20 homers in his prime. Maybin also has the speed to steal 30-40 bases in a season. Defensively, he has game-changing range and instincts, while also possessing a strong arm. Once he learns to hit breaking balls better, he could improve upon his .297 career minor league batting average. Maybin struggled with runners on base in 2008 and hit just .232 in those situations.

Maybin’s biggest competition for a starting role in 2009 is himself. He has to keep things simple and trust his natural ability; only a terrible spring will keep him off the opening-day roster. Other outfielders on the 40-man roster that can play center include Cody Ross (ticketed for left field), Alfredo Amezaga (a solid utility player), and Brett Carroll (fringe MLB starter). For fantasy purposes, Maybin could be a solid sleeper but don’t spend a high pick on him. He should hit about .270/.345/.390 with 10 homers and 20 stolen bases in his first season in Florida.

After an incredible showing in a short stint in September, Cameron Maybin appears poised to take over center field for the Florida Marlins, perhaps as early as opening day 2009. Maybin is an excellent prospect and may be hyped amongst fantasy baseball writers, but I want to offer fair warning: for 2009, Maybin may be disappointing.

(NOTE: I think Cameron Maybin is a fantastic prospect. He’s great for keeper leagues, but for this article I will focus only on what to expect in 2009).

Maybin spent most of 2008 in double-A in 2008, hitting .277/.375/.456 with 13 homers and 21 steals in 390 at bats. However, Maybin is more known for his stint with the Marlins in September, when he hit .500/.543/.563 in 32 at bats, with 4 steals (and somehow managed to be +3 on defense according to Bill James online).

Maybin’s 32-at-bat stint in the majors should basically be ignored: he happened to hit well over a very, very small sample size. When projecting him for 2009, we should look at the larger sample of his 08 minor league numbers. And those numbers are somewhat misleading, for two reasons.

First of all, Maybin’s .277 batting average was driven by a high .380 BABIP. He hit an average number of line drives (17.6%), but a very high number of grounders, perhaps allowing him to beat out a large share of infield hits. Still, a .380 BABIP is probably unsustainable, meaning his .277 batting average was higher than it should have been.

On the flip side, Maybin’s home park depressed his overall line. While Carolina played fairly neutral in 2008, it has historically depressed homers and hits by about 10% each. And sure enough, Maybin hit .314/.401/.508 with nine homers on the road, but only .249/.356/.413 with four homers at home.

So what should we expect in 2009? First of all, Maybin is both fast and a good base stealer. The Marlins are generally an aggressive team, so expect Maybin to steal a good amount of bases. However, I wouldn’t expect much in the power department – Maybin is certainly still young enough to develop power, but he hit twice as many ground balls as fly balls in the minors this year, and is unlikely to hit many homers in 2009.

Furthermore, although Maybin walked a lot in 2008 – a good sign for his long-term development – he also struck out a lot. While this may not hold him back in the long-term – he’s young enough to be able to improve – it doesn’t bode well for his batting average in 2009. Remember, Maybin only hit .277 in double-A this year, and that was despite posting an inordinately-high BABIP. In 2009 he will be facing much more difficult pitching, and may very well have a hard time posting a batting average of even .250, despite see his speed (see Carlos Gomez in 08).

Maybin would almost certainly benefit from some experience in triple-A, given his age and his propensity to strike out and hit ground balls. His speed, defense, and willingness to take a walk should translate well into the majors, making him at least an adequate player for the Marlins in 09. However, fantasy players should expect a low batting average and minimal power, coupled with a lot of stolen bases (assuming he get on base a decent amount of time).

Maybin is an excellent long-term prospect, but may only help in the stolen base category in 2009.