Archive for Cameron Maybin

Today’s edition of Waiver Wire revolves around two “raw” outfielders and a reliever who’s made a slight change.

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It’s a tough time of year to find fantasy gold on your waiver wire as your competition is picking through players just as intently as you.  But you might want to build your bench depth by taking a chance on some overlooked guys like a veteran infielder who has had batting average issues or a formerly hyped prospect who just needed a little extra time to break out. Read the rest of this entry »

Cameron Maybin, Marlins (Owned in five percent of Yahoo leagues)

Maybin, 23, has another shot at big league playing time following San Francisco’s pick up of Cody Ross. Maybin has logged nearly a season’s worth of MLB plate appearances spread over four seasons, and the results are vexing. The tooled-up center fielder has a .249/.310/.379 line in 512 PA, which translates to a .308 wOBA and an 88 wRC+. He has struck out 31.4% of the time, and he hasn’t drawn enough free passes (7.2 BB%) or slugged enough (.130 ISO) to compensate for the K’s.

CHONE and ZiPS are split on Maybin’s chances of being an offensive asset at this point. The former projection system pegs the erstwhile Tigers prospect as a .272/.351/.424 hitter, while the latter has Maybin languishing at .241/.319/.373. There are still sound reasons to believe that Florida’s big get in the Miguel Cabrera deal will be a long-term asset — he’s a plus defender at an up-the-middle position and he’s not helpless at the dish. However, his bat is of most concern to fantasy owners, and it’s hard to say what sort of offensive player he’ll be. Maybin is not a hacker, but his walk rate has dipped at the upper levels of the minors and is below-average in the show. He’s got a lanky 6-foot-3 frame and Baseball America predicted he’d eventually hit for plus power, but he has smacked the ball into the ground 55.5% of the time in the majors. Maybin has the skills to develop into a strong batter, but he’s got a long way to go in refining those talents.

Dan Hudson, Diamondbacks (36%)

Talk about making a good first impression with your new employer. After six exceptionally strong starts with the D-Backs, Hudson has 8.49 K/9 and 2.88 BB/9 in 59.1 big league innings this season. His 3.03 ERA is the product of some fortuitous bounces — Hudson’s BABIP is .269, and he has left nearly 81% of base runners high and dry. Also, the extreme fly ball pitcher (30.5 career GB% in the majors, 32.9 GB% at Triple-A) has given up homers on 8.2% of fly balls hit against him, a mark that’s likely to rise considering the MB average is closer to 11% and Chase Field inflates homers per fly ball hit by about six percent.

Even so, Hudson holds a quality 4.01 xFIP. There’s little question about his bat-missing ability, as he punched out 132 hitters in 117.1 innings at Triple-A over the past two years. In the big leagues this year, he has an 11.1 swinging strike rate (8.4% MLB average). Hudson’s three main pitches are all getting whiffed at often — eight percent for his 92-94 MPH fastball (six percent MLB average), 23.4% for his low-80’s changeup (12.6% MLB average) and 15.6% for his mid-80’s slider (13.6% MLB average). According to Pitch F/X data from Joe Lefkowitz’s site, Hudson’s fastball has induced a pop up 15.7% of the time that it has been put in play, compared to the 9-10% average for four-seamers.

The Old Dominion product’s fly ball tendencies should be monitored, particularly due to the unforgiving environs of his home ball park. But Hudson is well worth grabbing in mixed leagues.

Francisco Liriano, Twins

Liriano, 26, has reclaimed his place as one of the game’s elite starters. After undergoing Tommy John surgery in November of 2006, the lefty posted back-to-back ordinary seasons in 2008 (4.31 xFIP) and 2009 (4.55 xFIP), lacking the power, control and strong ground ball tendencies which allowed him to wreak havoc in ’06. He also missed time last season with elbow and forearm injuries, again calling into question his durability.

In 2010, however, Liriano has 9.41 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, a 49.5% rate of grounders and a 3.12 xFIP that ranks second to Cliff Lee among qualified AL starters. His mid-80’s slider has always been wicked — it has a +2.49 runs/100 value during his career, and is at +2.71 this season. He’s going to that breaking pitch about 36 percent of the time. But it’s Liriano’s two-seam fastball that’s making a big difference.

Liriano’s heat has been hammered for a -0.8 runs/100 mark during his career, but the pitch (up to 93.5 MPH, from 91 MPH in ’08 and ’09) has a +0.5 runs/100 value this year. He’s throwing the pitch for strikes (64.6%, 61.9% MLB average). Couple the souped-up, well-located fastball with Liriano’s untouchable slider — he’s throwing the pitch for strikes 74.7% (62.7% MLB average) and getting whiffs 24% (13% MLB average) — and you have the recipe for pitcher’s counts and little contact. Liriano’s first pitch strike percentage is 61.6% (58% MLB average) and his contact rate is 75% (80-81% MLB average).

Mike Pelfrey, Mets

Speaking of improved pitches, Pelfrey’s splitter has helped him take a step forward this season. The 6-7 sinkerballer threw his tailing low-90’s fastball nearly 80% of the time in years past, getting ground balls put few punch outs. He experimented with sliders and curves, but neither pitch has been especially effective (-0.76 runs/100 for the slider, -0.2 runs/100 for the curve).

Pelfrey has shifted his pitching strategy this season, going to his fastball about two-thirds of the time and throwing a mid-80’s splitter nearly 19 percent. He’s still keeping the ball down (a career-high 52.5 GB%), but Pelfrey’s K rate has climbed to 6.53, his best showing in the majors. While he hasn’t morphed into the ace that his ERA (2.39) suggests, Pelfrey has a quality 3.87 xFIP. His strand rate (near 83 percent) and sub-six HR/FB rate will likely rise. Still, the changes in Pelfrey’s game make him an asset to the Mets and a guy worthy of fantasy consideration.

Jay Bruce, Reds

“The Boss” entered the season as a prime rebound candidate, given his history of pulverizing minor league pitching and his strong walk and power numbers that were obscured by a low BABIP in 2009. So far, so good for Cincy’s 23-year-old right fielder: Bruce has a .368 wOBA.

He hasn’t quite displayed the light-tower power of past seasons (.197 ISO), but Bruce is still putting a charge into the ball often enough while continuing to improve his plate discipline. His rate of swings on pitches outside of the strike zone has gone from 30.4% in 2008 to 26.1% last season, to 24.4% in 2010. Consequently, his walk rate has climbed — 7.3% in ’08, 9.8% in ’09 and 12.4% this year. Bruce has top-shelf secondary skills, and the best is yet to come.

Grady Sizemore, Indians

Eno was all over the news that Sizemore underwent microfracture surgery, a devastating blow to the Indians and fantasy owners who were looking for a rebound from one of the game’s best players — Sizemore averaged 6.4 WAR per season from 2005-2008, with a park-and-league-adjusted wOBA that was 33 percent above average (133 wRC+).

Sizemore declined to a 112 wRC+ during an ’09 season marred by abdominal and elbow injuries, both of which required surgical fixes. In 2010, he had a paltry 53 wRC+, as his normally excellent patience and pop were nowhere to be seen. Sizemore’s outside swing rate soared to 33 percent (19.1% career average) and his rate of swings on pitches within the zone dipped to 59.4% (65.3% career average). His ISO was just .078 (.204 career).

Hopefully the 27-year-old can return and resume being a franchise-type player, but the truth is, we just don’t know how the procedure will affect his play. Those in keeper leagues have to be feeling Sizemore’s pain.

Cameron Maybin, Marlins

Mike Stanton’s in the big leagues, and early indications are that Cody Ross will shift to center to make room for the 20-year-old masher. That means less PT for Maybin.

While fellow 2005 first-round fly catchers Justin Upton, Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen, Bruce, Jacoby Ellsbury and Colby Rasmus have established themselves in the majors, Maybin has scuffled. In 489 career PA, the 23-year-old has a .308 wOBA, with rough plate discipline (7.6 BB%, 31 K%).

Maybin’s at an uncomfortable, in-between state right now. He’ll either see reduced playing time in the majors, hardly optimal for his development, or perhaps he’ll head back to Triple-A, where he already proved himself last season (.387 wOBA). Ross could be headed out of town in the next couple of months, opening up an everyday job for Maybin. His long-term potential is still excellent. But for now, Maybin’s no longer a prospect and not yet an accomplished big leaguer.

J.J. Hardy Twins

Minnesota acquired Hardy during the off-season for CF Carlos Gomez, hoping that J.J. would provide superb D and produce offensively at a level closer to his 2007 (.338 wOBA) and 2008 (.355 wOBA) work than his .292 mark in 2009. While Hardy, 27, has lived up to expectations with the leather, he has been a near-automatic out at the dish.

When healthy enough to take the field (he served a DL stint with a left wrist sprain, which apparently is still bothering him), Hardy has a .268 wOBA. His .237 BABIP will improve to an extent (though his line drive rate is generally pretty low, and his pop up rate high). Hardy’s rest-of-season ZiPS projection has a .312 wOBA. Coupled with rangy defense, that’s good enough to make him a solid starter for the Twins. ZiPS doesn’t know about Hardy’s wrist, though, and fantasy players getting none of the benefits of Hardy’s glove will want to look elsewhere for shortstop help.

When we checked the center field position and created tiered rankings, there were a few players that were suggested as possible values at the position.

Carlos Gomez and Cameron Maybin could provide some nice speed – at the cost of risking your batting average. Since the rankings were for rotisserie baseball, that risk pushed those players off of the rankings.

But what if we were talking about head-to-head baseball, where punting a category is a strategy many deep leaguers employ? In such a format, you are competing in ten categories every week and can easily ‘punt’ a category if it provides an advantage elsewhere. Imagine the value you could get out of eschewing batting average – your lineup could employ Jimmy Rollins, Mark Reynolds, Adam Dunn, and Jayson Werth, all without the problems that lineup would normally entail.

With that strategy in mind, is Chris Young a viable option in 2010? If Bill James is to be believed, Youngs’ power and speed could return and answer that question affirmatively. The fans have yet to chime in (but should take this chance to give their input).

After famously being demoted to the minor leagues last year, Young returned to a post-All-Star-break line that could help batting-average-punters (.236/.343/.444) – at least in the power department. He didn’t steal a base. We can be forgiven for feeling confused.

Looking at his plate discipline stats may just muddy the waters. Every statistic is going in a different direction. His strikeout rate has gotten steadily worse (24.8% in 2007 to 30.7% last year), but he’s reaching less often (22.9% in 2007 to 18.0% last year). Perhaps it’s all about his contact rate, which is definitely getting worse (79.7% in 2006 to 73.9% last year), but there are plenty of players that succeed with a 75-ish% contact rate (Evan Longoria and Adrian Gonzalez most prominently), and with his still-strong walk rate (9.1% career, 12% in 2009), he has his good qualities.

There’s also something interesting going on with Young’s take rate. As RJ pointed out, Young takes a lot of pitches in the zone, and a good portion of those pitches could have been called balls last year. But again, Victor Martinez and Chris Coghlan both also took about 40% of the pitches they saw in the zone, and they had pretty good years last year.

It may just be that a player that both takes a lot of pitches in the zone and doesn’t make contact is going to have a hard time in major league baseball. Let’s set the bar at Young’s career levels of swinging in the zone (around 60%) and contact rate (around 76%). How many other players in the last two years have had good seasons with those rates?

Last year, the list was short: Mike Cameron, Jason Bay and Brandon Inge all had passable years sporting percentages close to Young’s numbers (but none took as many pitches in the zone, with Cameron swinging the least at 63.7%). In 2008, it was Jason Bay and Mike Cameron again (but Bay made contact on 77.1% of his pitches, and Cameron swung at more pitches than Young.)

It looks like we have a (rather obvious) comp in Mike Cameron then. Except that if you compare Cameron’s career numbers in the two categories (63.9% Z-swing%, 75.4% contact rate), you’ll notice he doesn’t take as many pitches in the zone. He also plays solid center field defense (+5.7 UZR/150 in CF, career).

And you have your two things to work on for Chris Young the Outfielder. In order to be Mike Cameron, he needs to swing at more pitches in the zone and play better defense. Then he’ll always have a place on the field. The good news is that Young swung at more pitches in the zone last year than he did the previous two years. The bad news is that his defense needs to take a serious step forward this year (-4.9 UZR/150 in CF, career). The good news means that he may be ownable in the right league next year. The bad news means that he won’t be ownable in any keeper leagues going forward if the defense doesn’t improve.

The ultra toolsy Cameron Maybin has always had very high expectations. You really can’t blame them as the former 2005 first round draft picks first two MLB hits, including a home run, came as a 20 year old off of Roger Clemens in late 2007. He was also the key to the blockbuster deal that the Marlins and Tigers pulled off at the 2007 winter meetings when Miguel Cabrera was shipped off to Motown. Baseball America ranked Maybin as the number one prospect in the organization over the past three seasons (including 2007 in Detroit).

Maybin’s tools and athleticism have had fantasy owners eagerly awaiting on the sidelines until they translated into performance at the big league level. Maybin was given the opportunity to man center field for the Fish at the outset of 2009 and he struggled mightily in 84 at-bats in April and May. In those 84 at-bats he hit .202/.280/.310 and struck out at an ugly 37% clip. Strikeouts have been the one main concern about Maybin in the scouting reports.

He was demoted to Triple-A New Orleans in May and put everything together over the next 82 games and 298 at-bats despite playing with a partially torn labrum that bothered him over the second half of the season. In New Orleans Maybin raked to the tune of .319/.399/.463 which is good for a .387 wOBA. A .388 BABIP padded his slash stats but most importantly Maybin cut down on the strikeouts and only struck out 20% of the time in Triple-A.

These improvements earned him a September call up and he played regularly to close out the season with the big league team. Over 78 at-bats Maybin hit .282/.352/.487 with three home runs and he stayed away from strike three. Maybin’s strikeout rate over the month, though a small sample size, stuck at 23% in the big leagues and he walked nine times.

Maybin will be 23 years old when the 2010 season starts and he’s expected to be the Marlins starting center fielder on opening day barring something catastrophic. He recently underwent surgery on his labrum and is expected to be 100% this Spring. Maybin will be a sleeper on draft day and should be good for 15-20 steals and a good source of hits and batting average. Drafters will likely be hesitant to nab him due to his unappetizing overall 2009 big league stats but Maybin improved his strikeout rate and plate recognition over the course of last season. It’s all systems go for Maybin and he’s a giant sleeper that could be had late on draft day.

There are two baseball games already underway and another 10 on tap for tonight. Let’s hit some fantasy links as the season rolls on…

Getting amped for September call-up season? So are we, and so are others. Charlie Saponara of FantasyBaseball365.com thinks Cameron Maybin’s defense could earn him some playing time in Florida’s crowded outfield down the stretch. Maybin has been a disappointment on the major league level thus far, but, as Saponara notes, there’s reason to think he could steal a few bases in September.

Knox Bardeen of AOL Fanhouse thinks the Diamondbacks may roll with a closer-by-committee in the wake of Chad Qualls‘ knee injury, with Juan Gutierrez getting most of the chances and a combination of Clay Zavada and Esmerling Vasquez filling in the gaps. “You may want to avoid the Diamondbacks closer situation all together,” Bardeen writes, “and grab either Mike MacDougal or Leo Nunez from the waiver wire.” Andy Behrens of Yahoo! Sports calls Gutierrez “the add,” noting that he averages a closer-like 94.9 MPH average velocity on his fastball.

Bardeen also takes a quick look at the fantastic (and vastly underrated) season that Angels first baseman Kendry Morales is piecing together. The Halos deserve a pat on the back for pulling out of the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes last winter and going with the 26-year-old Morales. A .283/.331/.509 career hitter, he is batting .311/.355/.593 this season.

Rotoworld’s Aaron Gleeman believes Zack Greinke is headed for his first Cy Young Award. As Gleeman notes, “He leads the AL with a 2.32 ERA, six complete games, three shutouts, and a 1.08 WHIP while ranking behind only Justin Verlander with 202 strikeouts and second to only CC Sabathia with 190.1 innings.” Even with his lack of win potential, Greinke remains a top fantasy arm down the stretch.

Grey over at Razzball ranks MLB’s closers in tier format. His top dogs for the home stretch? The Twins’ Joe Nathan, the Yankees’ Mariano Rivera, Boston’s Jonathan Papelbon, the Mets’ Francisco Rodriguez and the Dodgers’ Jonathan Broxton. The Cardinals’ Ryan Franklin heads his second group of ninth-inning stoppers.

Have a link, question or comment you’d like to share? Shoot me an e-mail or find me on Twitter.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Robert Manuel, Marc Rzepczynski, Aaron Poreda, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

Josh Donaldson: The Cubs originally signed Donaldson as a supplemental first round pick out of college, but he slumped a bit at the beginning of his first full pro season. Oakland pounced and had him included in the trade for Rich Harden. The organization then aggressively promoted him one level upon his arrival and he hit .330/.391/.564 in 188 at-bats. This season in double-A, the catcher’s offense has come back to earth a bit again and Donaldson, 23, has a line of .271/.398/.429 with 32 doubles and six homers in 329 at-bats. He’s also posted an outstanding walk rate of 17.3% and a respectable strikeout rate of 20.7%. He won’t be a star, but Donaldson could be an above-average offensive catcher in the Majors.

Travis Snider: After a disappointing beginning to his MLB career, the 21-year-old left-fielder was sent back down to triple-A where he missed time with an injury. Finally getting back into the swing of things after missing all of June, Snider is swinging a big bat. He has seven home runs and 17 RBI in 22 July games, including three homers and nine RBI in his last 10 games. On the down side, Snider’s average is still below .260 and he’s striking out a lot. But you have to expect those kinds of things with young players. He’s definitely a future star, but he’s going to have his ups and downs. Just be patient.

Cameron Maybin: Like Snider, Maybin’s rookie season has not gone quite as expected and he is currently riding buses in triple-A, rather than traveling in style in The Show. With that said, his performance in triple-A has been outstanding and he looks ready for another shot in the Majors, which has been oddly slow in coming. Currently, the Marlins outfield prospect is hitting .325/.413/.469 with 14 doubles in 228 at-bats. He’s also increased his walk rate, while trimming his strikeout rate significantly. Maybin’s power numbers have been down and he’s also stopped stealing bases so his value is really tied up in his average right now. Regardless, he’s making positive steps and could be up any day now.

C.J. Retherford: With Josh Fields possibly on his way out of Chicago, this former non-drafted amateur free agent (a great scouting job by the White Sox) could suddenly find himself jumping up the depth chart at third base. Retherford has done nothing but hit since signing and he’s currently hitting .294/.334/.471 with 28 doubles and eight homers in 340 at-bats. The 23-year-old does not possess a ton of power; his swing is more geared to the line drive. His walk rate has also dipped each season and is down to 6.3 BB% in 2009 at double-A. The right-handed hitter has potential, but Retherford needs to be a little more patient.

Brooks Brown: Prior to the season, the Diamondbacks sent Brown to the Tigers so the National League organization could have the rights to Rule 5 draft pick James Skelton, who was then optioned to the minors. Brown, a former supplemental first round pick, had been a disappointment to that point in his pro career. He’s still not a strikeout pitcher, and never will be, but Brown has learned how to pitch to his strengths and rely on his defense. His fastball is in the upper 80s most of the time, but he has a solid ground-ball rate of 50.4% between double-A and triple-A this season. Brown’s walk rate has taken a hit lately, but his control has seen signs of improving overall. A starter in the minors, the 24-year-old is headed to the bullpen (possibly as a swing man) in the Majors but he should still be a useful arm who could luck into a number of vulture wins.

Sam Demel: A former third-round pick out of college, Demel has risen quickly through the minors and is on the cusp of his big-league debut. The 23-year-old right-hander posted a 2.79 FIP in double-A while allowing 23 hits in 29.1 innings of work and a strikeout rate of 7.98 K/9. Promoted to triple-A, he’s allowed just eight hits (but 11 walks) in 15.1 innings. He also has 14 Ks. The two key things that Demel needs to work on are: consistency and command. He has the upside of a set-up man with a low-90s fastball that has touched 95 mph, as well as a slider and changeup.

It’s been a couple of weeks since we last took a look at the Rookie of the Year races in both the American and National leagues, so let’s have a look at how the top freshman hitters in Major League Baseball are doing.

Chris Getz (Chicago, 2B): Despite being slowed by a broken finger, Getz has pretty much done everything you could hope for from a second baseman: He’s played good defense, run a little bit, and hit for a respectable average (.274). Now at the top of the order, his .340 on-base average could be a little more impressive if he walked a bit more (6.7 BB%) but he’s putting the ball in play (9.5 K%). Getz is not having a flashy season, but it may be the most consistent amongst the rookies in the American League.

Elvis Andrus (Texas, SS): If you prefer flashy, Andrus is your man. The 20 year old’s defense (and range) is one of the main reasons why Texas is in first place in the American League West. His defense is only going to get better by watching (and listening) to veteran teammate Omar Vizquel. Offensively, he’s not embarrassing himself with a line of .273/.312/.409 but he could stand to run a little bit more on the base paths. After stealing 54 bases in 118 games in 2008, he has just three steals so far this season in the Majors.

Travis Snider (Toronto, LF): Batting ninth in Toronto’s potent (right now, anyway), first-place lineup, Snider is having an inconsistent season mainly due to his eagerness at the plate. He is swinging at pitchers’ pitches right now and not being patient enough. His line of .250/.305/.420 is a bit of a disappointment, but his strikeout rate of 20.5 K% is encouraging for a young slugger, who hasn’t been playing his best – especially considering his career rate was around 30 K% entering 2009.

Brett Gardner (New York, CF): During the course of the past two seasons, Gardner has combined to hit .228/.284/.290 in 70 big league games, which won’t cut it for most if not all teams – and definitely not the New York Yankees. With a career ISO below .100 and a walk rate under 10%, the 25-year-old rookie is quickly fading into a role as a fourth or fifth outfielder. And he likely has a smaller window of time to turn things around than many prospects would.

Cameron Maybin (Florida, CF): It has been a disappointing season for the former No. 1 prospect, who was sent down to triple-A this past weekend. His line of .202/.280/.310, though, was just not cutting it, especially for a team battling to hold on to first place in the National League East division.

Travis Ishikawa (San Francisco, 1B): Ishikawa is another rookie that has been struggling, despite being platooned by the Giants. Overall, he is hitting just .219/.284/.288 with zero homers in 73 at-bats. The left-handed batter is hitting just .224 against right-handers. Jesus Guzman and John Bowker, both of whom can play 1B, are hitting very well in triple-A.

Chris Dickerson (Cincinnati, OF): In his last six games, Dickerson has received just six at-bats, while minor league journeymen Laynce Nix has seen an increase in playing time. Yes, Dickerson is scuffling (.197/.316/.288) but riding the pine is not going to help him. The Reds have a team loaded with young talent, but I maintain manager Dusty Baker should be in charge of a club that relies on veteran rosters – He’s not the right person to develop and guide young players.

Dexter Fowler (Colorado, CF): Fowler finally received regular playing time but after stealing five bases in one game on April 27, he’s gone just 3-for-14 (.214) with zero stolen bases and no extra base hits. His line is down to .258/.333/.382 and the Rockies organization is loaded with outfielders so he needs to get back on track.

Jordan Schafer (Atlanta, CF): He popped two homers in the first three games of his MLB career, but Schafer has not gone deep since (29 games and counting). More troubling is the fact that he has just two extra base hits in May, along with 20 strikeouts in 12 games. On the positive side, he does have 23 walks on the season (17.8 BB%).

Colby Rasmus (St. Louis, CF): It’s been a bad year for the rookie center fielders. Fowler and Rasmus are the best hitters of the bunch. Rasmus’ triple-slash line is an uninspiring .256/.337/.349. He’s actually hitting pretty good against right-handed pitching with a .299 average, but he is 2-for-19 against southpaws (.105 average). Rasmus could end up in a platoon role soon if he doesn’t show signs of improving in that area.

So, what other rookie hitters should we begin watching in the American and National leagues?

Brett Gardner | CF | New York
Versus Kansas City and RHP Gil Meche

At-Bat 1: