Archive for Brett Cecil

It has begun! May your leagues bring you much joy. What follows is one approach to auctions that should bring you future joy.

I participated in two auction drafts. In both, I decided to spend little on pitching. In The Fake Baseball’s Friends and Family League (TFBFFL), I spent almost the minimum on our (co-own the free team with Zach Sanders) rotation and bench. I spent $16.00 on 12 pitchers ($2 max), but the results were not horrible: Drew Hutchison, Homer Bailey, Carlos Martinez, Henderson Alvarez, Shelby Miller, John Lackey, Sean Doolittle, Carlos Rodon and Rafael Montero. I dropped Chad Qualls already for Zach McAllister. We have enough bats to upgrade.

In my next auction, I wanted two better pitchers, but I still gave myself a $40 cap. I wound up spending $45 on the following:

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This post continues our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will continue to break them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find the Depth Chart Discussion posts gathered here.

Closer/Setup Men:

Fishing for a closer?

Draft Jenrry Mejia and you may feel like doing this:

Jenrry Mejia. So pumped. pic.twitter.com/iy8HR5yrZu

— MLB GIFS (@MLBGIFs) July 26, 2014

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Our Mock Draft is complete.

Team Schwartz/rounds drafted:

C: Travis d’Arnaud/17 1B: Victor Martinez/4 2B: Arismendy Alcantara/18 3B: Josh Donaldson/3 SS: Hanley Ramirez/2 MI: Jean Segura/19 CI: Prince Fielder/6 OF: Mike Trout/1; Mookie Betts/7; Ryan Zimmerman/10; A.J. Pollock/14; Steven Souza/20; Carl Crawford/24 U: Pedro Alvarez/21

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Any day now, Zach Sanders (@zvsanders) will come out with his end-of-season FAVRz/Fantasy Rankings. Look out for them.

For this post, I will provide three sets of rankings using that same approach (summed up z-scores) for our end-of-season “Bullpen Report: Expected Fantasy Rankings”. The Bullpen Report team should follow up with role reports for each division in the coming weeks as well.

The first set of rankings you will find almost anywhere: on the fantasy sites that you use, via player-raters, etc. It’s the standard 5×5 fantasy value (Wins, ERA, WHIP, SO and Saves). The second grid will be for 6×6 leagues (addition of Holds). The last grid will be for 5×5 and 6×6 leagues, but instead of standard ERA and WHIP, we’ll look at rankings if you were to use expected ERA (via SIERA) and adjusted (adj)WHIP through BABIP differential: I will explain below.

1) 5×5 Rankings (Wins, ERA, WHIP, SO and Saves) – actual 5×5 value in column 4; expected 5×5 value in column 5:

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Through the first two-plus months of the year, Toronto had been fortunate enough to have one of the healthiest rotations in the big leagues. With the exception of one Joel Carreno start in the third game of the season, the quintet of Ricky Romero / Brandon Morrow / Henderson Alvarez / Kyle Drabek / Drew Hutchison had started every Blue Jays game through June 16. Consistency isn’t quite the same as effectiveness, of course, since Alvarez & Drabek were each cruising along with ugly FIP scores over 5.50, but nonetheless, few teams had made it that far into the season with such a low turnover in the rotation.

That situation fell apart completely in the span of four days last week, as Morrow (oblique), Drabek (elbow), and Hutchison (elbow) each hurt themselves and landed on the disabled list. Drabek will have Tommy John surgery and will be out until well into 2013; Hutchison’s fate is yet to be decided but a zipper of his own hasn’t been ruled out. Neither had much fantasy relevance, but the loss of Morrow for a month or more is acute, as he’d evolved into one of the better starters in the game, most recently ranked as the #20 overall starter on the latest Yahoo! leaderboards.

With the trio gone, Toronto suddenly has to fill 60% of their rotation. Let’s look at who’s left standing and who is now in line for opportunity; you might want to take the very young and very old out of the room before continuing, because it’s not pretty…

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Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 22.

Mark Buehrle – In his last 19 starts, Buehrle has gone 9-3 with a 2.62 ERA. Overall, his ERA is about 0.75 less than his FIP and nearly a full run worse than his xFIP. But Buehrle has out-performed both FIP numbers in seven of the previous nine seasons, so it’s not a huge surprise. The estimators have a tough time with Buehrle because his strikeout rate is so low. But he counters with an excellent walk rate and better than average HR and LOB rates. He has a home start against MIN and he has a 0.39 ERA in three starts against the Twins this year. He’s also got a game at DET and lifetime he has a 3.37 ERA and a 1.179 WHIP in 123 IP at Comerica Park. Keep Buehrle in the lineup this week.

Brett Cecil – The one weakness for Cecil is his gopher ball tendencies. He’s allowed 14 HR in 91.1 IP this year and all 14 HR have come against RHB. This week Cecil squares off against BAL and NYY, with both starts on the road. The Yankees lead the AL with 98 HR at home and the Orioles are tied for third with 82 HR. The Yankees have power up and down the lineup while the Orioles feature three RHB – Hardy, Jones and Reynolds – with over 20 HR apiece. Give Cecil the week off.

Wade Davis – The year started off miserably for Davis as he adopted more of a pitch-to-contact approach which resulted in an inflated ERA. After 18 starts he had a 4.47 ERA and a 4.13 K/9. But in his last five starts, Davis has fanned 28 in 36 IP for a 7.00 K/9 and he has a 3.75 ERA. The Rays are 5-0 in that stretch, although Davis has just one win to show for it. If he can keep up the solid pitching, the wins will come so make sure you have him active this week.

Doug Fister – Last year Fister was a low-end matchup guy, one you could put into the lineup when he had home starts. He had a strong 3.61 ERA and 1.139 WHIP at Safeco but a 5.06 ERA and a 1.551 WHIP in road games. This year he’s been good both at home and on the road. There was concern about how he would do after the trade to Detroit, but in four starts with the Tigers, Fister has produced two strong outings, both at home. This week he has two home starts, with games against the Royals and White Sox, two teams below .500 and who are just middle of the pack versus LH starters. Get Fister active this week.

Hiroki Kuroda – Since coming to this country in 2008, Kuroda has been a very reliable pitcher for both the Dodgers and fantasy owners. Despite strong overall numbers, he’s never been a big asset in Wins and this year was even worse than normal as he had a 6-13 record at the end of July despite a 3.11 ERA. But fortune has smiled upon Kuroda in August, as he has a 4-1 record this month. He has a normal .305 BABIP in August yet has a 2.16 ERA in 33.1 IP. This week he has a home start against SD and a road start in ATL. He has more wins against the Padres (7) than any team in the majors. His start against the Braves is a day game and Kuroda has a 2.58 ERA and a 1.148 WHIP with a 4.0 K/BB rate in day games this season. Make sure he is in the lineup this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 22 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Sabathia, Kershaw, Romero, Marcum, Hellickson, D.Hudson, Scherezer, J. Garcia, Worley, Latos, W. Rodriguez, Hamels, Tomlin, Harrison, Cahill, Lackey, Harden, Lowe, Morton, Vazquez, Bailey, Arroyo, Hochevar, Pelfrey, Guthrie, White, L. Hernandez, Beavan, Wells, Pineiro, Francis, Slowey, Huff, Williams, Ohlendorf, Volstad.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 20 pitchers and how they fared.

Billingsley – Advised to sit. 12 Ks, 3.07 ERA, 0.955 WHIP, 14.2 IP, 5 ER
Burnett – Advised to start. W, 3 Ks, 12.27 ERA, 2.591 WHIP, 7.1 IP, 10 ER
Gonzalez – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 3.21 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, 14 IP, 5 ER
Leake – Advised to start. 10 Ks, 6.75 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 12 IP, 9 ER
Luebke – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 1.50 ERA, 0.750 WHIP, 12 IP, 2 ER

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 19.

Brett Cecil – In his last six games, Cecil has thrown a Quality Start five times. The main thing holding him down right now is his propensity for the long ball, as he’s allowed 10 HR in 70.1 IP this year for Toronto. But this week he has home starts against OAK and ANA, two teams below average in hitting HR. ANA could give him some trouble, as their top three HR threats have combined for 40 HR and all three bat righty. All 10 of Cecil’s HR this year have been served up to RH batters. But the matchup against OAK looks good and Cecil is a guy you can likely pluck off the waiver wire and stream this week.

Matt Garza – In 21 starts this year, Garza has managed just 5 Wins. But he has an outstanding 9.02 K/9 and a respectable 3.78 ERA. His peripherals are even better, as Garza has a 3.14 xFIP, which is tied for the 10th-best mark among qualified hurlers. He’s been pitching well lately, with six Quality Starts in his last eight games. He’s been very good at home, where he squares off this week against WSN. Garza does have a road start against ATL, but the Braves have scored just 37 runs in their last 12 games. Keep Garza active this week.

Matt Harrison – The matchups are favorable for Harrison this week as he faces SEA and OAK. He’s also been pitching extremely well over his last 15 games, with a 2.57 ERA in that span. Wins have been hard to come by for Harrison this year, but he picked up a victory in three of his last four decisions over his last five starts. Get him into your lineup this week.

Daniel Hudson – Since being acquired from the White Sox last year at the trade deadline, Hudson has 17 starts at Chase Field and he is 9-4 with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.035 WHIP. This week he has home starts against the Astros and Mets, two teams that have made trades with an eye on the future which have limited their offensive firepower this season. Make sure that Hudson is active this week.

Justin Masterson – It has been a streaky season for Masterson, who started off 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA after seven starts. He then proceeded to go 0-6 in his next nine games. But Masterson is back on track since the beginning of July. He had six stars in the month and went 3-1 with a 1.58 ERA. Masterson still struggles against LHB but faces the Twins, who are playing without Justin Morneau. His other matchup is against the Tigers, which should be a little more difficult, but in two starts against Detroit this season he’s allowed 4 ER in 13.1 IP for a 2.70 ERA. He should be in your lineup this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 19 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, Haren, Shields, Marcum, Vogelsong, Baker, Stuaffer, W. Rodriguez, Kuroda, Jackson, Floyd, Fister, Lowe, Humber, Harden Marquis, Bailey, Pelfrey, Capuano, Morton, Guthrie, Willis, Hochevar, Britton, Hammel, Francis, Lyles, Rogers, Furbush, Hand, Wang.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 17 pitchers and how they fared.

R. De La Rosa – Advised to start. W, 11 Ks, 3.60 ERA, 1.600 WHIP, 10 IP, 4 ER
F. Garcia – Advised to start. 2 W, 11 Ks, 3.29 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, 17.2 IP, 5 ER
Karstens – Advised to sit. 8 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 12 IP, 6 ER
Narveson – Advised to start. W, 7 Ks, 3.86 ERA, 1.371 WHIP, 11.2 IP, 5 ER
Pavano – Advised to sit. 2 Ks, 15.00 ERA, 2.444 WHIP, 9.0 IP, 15 ER

All this week, I’ve been looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some starting pitchers.

James Shields
If you listen to xFIP, this was James Shields best season. If you ask ERA, or a majority of fans, this was his worst season. His strikeout rate was much better than his past two seasons, but it doesn’t look like he did anything to deserve it. He got smacked around this year, and even the great R.J. Anderson couldn’t really figure out why.
Crude 2011 Projection: 210 IP, 4.15 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. He’ll be undervalued next year, so prey on other owners and draft him a couple rounds later than he should go.

Josh Beckett
For all the crap the mass media and Red Sox fans are giving him, Beckett wasn’t all that bad this year. He ended with an xFIP of 4.01 in less than 130 innings. However, he did have the worst whiff rate of his career, and his worst season throwing first pitch strikes.
Crude 2011 Projection: 160 IP, 4.10 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. 160 innings isn’t worth the price you have to pay. Draft him, but don’t keep him.

Ricky Romero
I was giddy when Romero was pitching well early on, but he struggled in the second half. For the last three months, Romero failed to post a K/BB over 2, but kept his xFIP around 4.00. He was still a four win pitcher this year, and his 55% ground ball rate is great. Pitching in the AL East didn’t help things, either, and I’m willing to bet he wins 17 games in most divisions.
Crude 2011 Projection: 200 IP, 3.75 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. Odds are you got him off the waiver wire, and he’s worth that price.

Brett Cecil
Cecil had a nice April and May, but didn’t get much hype. The lefty doesn’t do anything special, and he’s a slight above-average pitcher. It was good to see him walk less batters, and his SwStr% was improved by a percentage points.
Crude 2011 Projection: 190 IP, 4.00 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He wasn’t worth much in drafts, so he’s a nice value to have in the back of your rotation.

If you have a starting pitcher you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

In a bit of a surprise, the Blue Jays started Cecil in the minors after he posted a decent rookie season in 2009. But he got the call to the majors after going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in two games in the Pacific Coast League. Cecil replaced Brian Tallet in the rotation and had a strong first start. He gave up two runs in six innings in Tampa Bay before allowing a two-run HR to Gabe Kapler in the seventh. Cecil has the chance to post good strikeout numbers and a league-average ERA if he can do a better job of keeping the ball in the park. In 100 IP in the majors, Cecil has a 6.93 K/9 and a 15.1 HR/FB rate.

David Freese, St. Louis Cardinals (owned in 5% of Yahoo! leagues)

In four seasons in the minors, Freese hit for both AVG and power. So far this season with the Cardinals, Freese has a .300 AVG but no home runs. He has an unsustainable .417 BABIP but he also has been having some issue with strikeouts, carrying a 30.0 K%. If he can start hitting a few home runs and cut down some on the strikeouts, he could survive the inevitable BABIP drop. Updated ZiPS projects him to finish with a .273 AVG and 11 HR, which is nice production off the waiver wire for third base.

Carlos Villanueva, Milwaukee Brewers (owned in 9% of Yahoo! leagues)

Always a good strikeout pitcher, Villanueva has 14 strikeouts in 10 IP so far this season. The rest of his early numbers are nearly as impressive, as he finally seems to have found a home as a reliever after bouncing back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen the past four years in Milwaukee. Villanueva has pitched in the eighth inning in three of his last four appearances. Perhaps this is the year that 42-year old Trevor Hoffman finally gives out, as his early season numbers are not confidence-inspiring. Villanueva would have to be under consideration along with Todd Coffey and LaTroy Hawkins as potential replacements. Hawkins has never really succeeded in multiple shots as a closer and Coffey has pitched in the eighth or ninth inning just three times in 10 outings this year, and all three of those were in mop-up roles. Add Villanueva for his fine pitching in middle relief and consider him a darkhorse candidate for saves.

Fans and analysts did not consider Blue Jays pitcher Brett Cecil as one of the elite rookie pitchers coming into the season but he did have some buzz surrounding him. He made Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects List (#72) while also earning a B+ grade from prospect maven John Sickels.

Cecil started off 2009 in the minors but was promoted in early May. He made four consecutive starts for Toronto and pitched well in three of them before the Red Sox hammered him on May 20th. Two days later the Blue Jays optioned him to the minors, where Cecil spent the next month.

Upon his return to the majors, Cecil tossed a Quality Start against the Nationals but then posted two poor outings around a relief appearance. Prior to the All-Star break, it looked like 2009 was shaping up to be nothing more than a learning season for the rookie from Maryland.

But in his last three outings, Cecil is 2-0 with a 0.45 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 20 innings. What, if anything has changed for Cecil in his last three outings? Let us take a look at his PitchFX numbers to see if we can notice any trends.

Fastball

Slider

Cecil simply was lacking velocity on both his fastball and his slider in his July 5th outing, one of three poor outings this year for him. So far this season, Cecil has pitched in 11 games, making 10 starts. He has hurled seven Quality Starts but has been hit hard the other three starts, which has made his overall numbers seem mediocre.

After getting lit up for four runs in the first inning of his start against the Reds on June 25th, the Blue Jays moved Cecil to the bullpen. He might still be there, except for Scott Richmond’s shoulder injury. That led to a return to the rotation for Cecil and his poor outing on July 5th versus the Yankees.

According to the Blue Jays’ official site, the team activated Richmond from the DL Tuesday night. Cecil will remain in the rotation, as Toronto sent Dirk Hayhurst to Triple-A to make room on the roster, while Brian Tallet moved to the bullpen to create a rotation spot for Richmond.

Cecil’s last three outings have earned him a longer look in the Blue Jays’ rotation and he is someone for fantasy owners to take a flier on, as he is available in 72 percent of CBS Sports leagues and over 98 percent of ESPN leagues.