Archive for Brandon McCarthy

Are the playoffs here yet? Because I’m a) tired of watching the Rangers lose, b) sweating out the day-to-day fluctuations in my big money roto league, and c) trying to find something new to say in this article twice a week. So after the jump I’m going to repeat a couple of things. First, I’ll have a chart showing how each of today’s probable starters have performed against batters of each handedness this year. And then I’ll pick a few players and recite some familiar analysis alongside them.

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Most of the time when I’m picking a daily lineup, I make a custom leaderboard of the starting pitchers for the day to see which starters are most homer-prone. But this can be a tedious task to do day after day. So I’ve created the chart you see below which shows the most homer prone starting pitchers. I had a post a few months ago where I had charts showing hitters with reverse splits and the splits of switch hitters that I still reference often. Hopefully this post will be a similar bookmark worthy tool.

There are three columns. One for starters that are currently in a major league rotation with at least 1320 career batters faced (which is the point at which HR stabilizes) against batters of any handedness . The players listed have a HR rate against all batters that is two or more standard deviations above the mean. And then there is a chart for starters with 1320+ BF against lefties and against righties. The players listed in those charts have a HR rate against batters of that particular handedness that is one or more standard deviations above the mean. Read the rest of this entry »

Today’s Roto Riteup will not include suggestions for who to pick today in The Game, since the day’s game will have already started by the time this goes live. When games don’t start at ungodly hours, you should expect to see suggestions for the current day’s games.

Since fantasy owners watch games with a certain slant, here are some notes on things you may want to look for during the first few games of the year.

–  One thing to take note of over the first week or two of the season is Jemile Weeks’ approach at the dish. The speedy second baseman walked a good deal in the minors, but he tended to opt to put the ball in play during his stint with the A’s last season. Last season the switch-hitter averaged 3.85 pitches per plate appearance and swung 42.7% of the time, so use those numbers as a sort of benchmark going forward. If he decides to walk in the majors, his OBP could make him supremely valuable.

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– Happy Stephen Strasburg day, everyone. Strasburg is set to pitch tonight’s Nationals-Dodgers affair against Ted Lilly. Could there be a bigger difference in pitchers in a single game? This author thinks not. While we don’t have a definite pitch count for Strasburg, the righty threw seventy pitches in his final rehab outing, so it’s probably safe to assume he’ll sit around the same mark during his first major league start of 2011.

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– Brian Wilson was placed on the DL with elbow problems yesterday morning, leaving Jeremy Affeldt as the likely closer in San Francisco. I suspect Ramon Ramirez may also get a few shots at closing games, but for now, add Affeldt if you can only pick one.

– You might be tempted to bring Brandon McCarthy in for two starts this week, but you shouldn’t. First off, both of McCarthy’s starts are away from home, which is always a bad sign. Secondly, he faces the Yankees and the Red Sox. It’s not going to be pretty, so keep him on your bench of on the waiver wire.

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Saturday the FanGraphs crowd caught the Texas-Cleveland matchup and saw strong performances from starting pitchers Justin Masterson and Brandon McCarthy. Masterson struck out six batters in 3.2 IP while McCarthy had 3 Ks in 3 IP and did not allow a run. Masterson solidified his place as one of the Tribe’s top pitchers while McCarthy helped his chances to land a spot in Texas’ starting rotation.

Over at Mock Draft Central they give an ADP for the top 454 players. McCarthy does not make the list. Some of the pitchers who are on the list ahead of him include Oliver Perez and his 6.82 ERA, Luke Hochevar and his 1.49 WHIP and John Lannan and his 3.88 K/9. McCarthy did not even get a write-up in FanGraphs Second Opinion. I think it is safe to say that he is not on most people’s fantasy radar at this point in time.

McCarthy has two things working against him: his injury history and his gopher ball tendencies. Last year McCarthy had his second stress fracture in his right shoulder and missed nearly three months of the season. He has been on the DL four times in the last three years, including two 60-day stints. In 2009, McCarthy had a 1.20 HR/9, a rate that would have ranked among the worst in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify.

While it remains to be seen if McCarthy can stay healthy, he got better as the season progressed last year in allowing homers. In April, McCarthy surrendered 6 HR in 22 IP. For the rest of the season he gave up 7 HR in 75.1 IP. McCarthy was at his best in September, after he came back from the stress fracture. In his final 33.1 IP, he allowed just 2 HR.

Now this could easily be just the results of a small sample. But one interesting note is McCarthy’s batted ball profile after he returned from the DL. He had a 49.1 GB%, nearly double of his mark in April (26.4%). McCarthy posted a 1.44 GB/FB mark, compared to a 0.92 GB/FB mark overall in 2009 and a 0.82 lifetime mark in the category.

After his return from the disabled list, McCarthy threw fewer fastballs and more of his off-speed pitches. His FB% was 40.3 percent in September, compared to 64.9 percent overall. He threw more of each of his remaining three pitches, with his change seeing the biggest increase. In the final month, McCarthy threw his change 23.6 percent of the time.

With an average FB velocity last year of 88.8 and a Pitch Type Value of -7.6 runs with his heater, McCarthy can afford to throw fewer fastballs. One thing to keep in mind is that there is some confusion about which pitches he actually throws. In the Associated Press story following Saturday’s outing, McCarthy said, “I really wanted to work on the cutter.” Meanwhile, neither FanGraphs nor BrooksBaseball.net show him throwing a cutter last year. Also, there was talk at the beginning of 2009 about McCarthy throwing a “slurve,” which further muddies the water.

Regardless of the terminology used, the bottom line is that McCarthy threw more grounders in the final month of the season last year. It’s too soon to draw any conclusions, but fantasy players should keep in mind that McCarthy may be a different pitcher going forward. If he continues with these ground balls, he could be a candidate for an early waiver wire claim.

Here is the latest update to Week 25 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

HOU – Rodriguez
DET – Jackson
CHC – Wells
TEX – Millwood
CIN – Cueto
ARI – Davis
BOS – Wakefield
MIL – Bush
TEX – McCarthy
CHW – Carrasco

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

BOS – Beckett
CHC – Marquis
CHW – Floyd
CLE – Laffey
TEX – Nippert
ARI – Buckner

Rodriguez has two home starts against pitchers coming off injury/illness this week. Perhaps no elite pitcher has a bigger home/road split than Rodriguez. In Minute Maid Park, he is 8-2 with a 1.58 ERA and a 0.979 WHIP. In road starts Rodriguez is 5-8 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.440 WHIP.

Jackson has allowed five earned runs in back-to-back starts. In his last five games he has a 6.03 ERA yet has gone 2-2 in that stretch.

Wells has also given up five runs in back-to-back starts but in the former outing, four of those were unearned. In his last eight starts, Wells has allowed five-or-more runs four times. He is 2-5 in those eight outings but his ERA is a respectable 3.83 in that stretch.

Millwood is 10-10 this season. Since 2004, he is exactly 63-63. This year the average ERA in the American League is 4.45 and since 2004 Millwood checks in with a 4.38 mark. Despite that average-ness, Millwood is enjoying a fortunate season in 2009. His 4.91 FIP is a career high while his 78.5 percent strand rate is the second-highest of his career.

Cueto had his start last week pushed back due to the flu and is now scheduled to go Tuesday against the Pirates. He finally broke a six-game losing streak on the last day of August and in his last three games before getting ill, Cueto had a 2.76 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 16.1 innings.

Davis has received two runs or less of support in 12 of his 31 games, which helps explain his 7-13 record despite a 4.01 ERA. He has five Quality Starts in his last seven games, yet is 0-3 in that stretch.

Wakefield is scheduled for two starts this week in his first action since receiving a cortisone injection in his spine on September 10th. The veteran knuckleball pitcher had been experiencing weakness in both his back and legs the past few weeks.

Bush is tied with Cueto for the major league lead with 14 HBP. It is even more impressive when you consider that Bush missed over two months with a torn triceps muscle. He does not even have enough innings to show up on the FanGraphs leader boards. Five times this season, Bush has hit multiple batters in a game, including plunking three hitters in an April game versus Pittsburgh.

McCarthy has been unimpressive in three starts since recovering from a stress fracture in his right shoulder. He has limited batters to a .203 average in those three games but has a 5.17 ERA. Two starts ago it was the long ball which did McCarthy in, as he gave up two homers in 6.1 innings against Cleveland. In his last outing he allowed seven baserunners in three innings against Oakland.

Carrasco has just one start this season for the White Sox, but is 5-1 with a 3.24 ERA as a reliever. His primary pitch is a cutter, although he also throws a four-seam fastball and a slider. Carrasco is not a good pickup for his two starts, as he has not exceeded four innings nor 67 pitches in an outing this season.

Here is the latest update to Week 23 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

NYY – Burnett
TAM – Price
STL – Smoltz
WAS – Lannan
TEX – McCarthy
PIT – McCutchen
CIN – Maloney
KC – Chen

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

KC – Bannister
TEX – Nippert
WAS – Mock
TAM – Sonnanstine
CIN – Lehr
NYM – Misch

Burnett was 10-4 at the end of July but since then has gone 0-4 with a 6.54 ERA and a 1.594 WHIP in seven games. He has allowed six HR in his last three games, two of which were on the road. Burnett has two home starts this week, including a game against the Rays, who are third in the league in homers.

Price has gotten a decision in 13 of his last 14 starts and has gone 6-7 in that span. Five of his six wins have been Quality Starts and he has not allowed more than two runs in those six games. But in the seven losses Price has allowed 33 runs and has just one Quality Start. He has a huge home/road split, with a 6-3 record and a 3.32 ERA at Tropicana Field, compared to a 6.81 road ERA. Price has road games this week at New York and at Boston.

Smoltz has made three starts for the Cardinals and has 1 BB and 21 SO in 17 IP. And while he allowed 8 HR in 40 IP in the American League, Smoltz has surrendered just 1 HR in the National League. His first start this week is against the Brewers, the team that scored four runs in six innings against him, three on a HR by Casey McGehee.

Lannan is 2-5 with a 5.13 ERA in his last 11 games. Prior to that, he had won four straight decisions after altering his pitching style to reduce strikeouts and pitch to contact. In the last 11 games, Lannan has a 24/21 SO/BB ratio and has only topped three strikeouts in a game once, when he notched 6 Ks in a win against the Marlins.

McCarthy has made one start since being activated from the disabled list, where he spent nearly three months recovering from a stress fracture in his right shoulder. For the year, McCarthy has an average fastball velocity of 89.2 percent but in his first outing back, he averaged 86.6 and maxed out at 88.4, yet still picked up his sixth win of the season. McCarthy has a 5.91 road ERA this season and has one home and one road game this week.

McCutchen won his major league debut last week against the Reds and notched a Quality Start, going 6 IP with 3 ER. Acquired from the Yankees in the Xavier Nady deal, McCutchen throws in the low 90s and if he can keep the ball in the park, he has a chance. Last year in Triple-A, McCutchen allowed 22 HR in 118.1 IP and went 7-9. This year in Triple-A, he allowed 10 HR in 142.2 IP and went 13-6. McCutchen allowed a leadoff homer to Drew Stubbs in his major league debut.

Maloney has made four starts in the majors and given up two homers in each of them. He has a 0.53 GB/FB ratio and a 20 percent HR/FB mark. Maloney has road starts this week at Colorado and at Chicago. Clint Barmes and Troy Tulowitzki have combined to hit 17 HR versus LHP this year, although no one on the Cubs has more than 4 HR versus southpaws.

Chen is likely to remain in the rotation with injuries to Brian Bannister and Gil Meche. He is a decent strikeout pitcher, with a 6.87 K/9 mark but that is the only thing Chen has going for him fantasy-wise. Both his ERA and FIP are over 5.00 and his WHIP checks in at 1.49. Like Maloney, he is a flyball pitcher (0.57 GB/FB) and he has a 1.64 HR/9 mark. Since notching 13 W with the Orioles in 2005, Chen has just one victory in the majors since, although it did come this season.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 7.

Ricky Nolasco – Yes, when you drafted Nolasco you thought he’d be one of your top pitchers when he was healthy. But instead he’s been horrible. Maybe Nolasco is hiding an injury or maybe his teammates are tipping all of his pitches. Either way, you do not want him in your lineup for two lousy starts. The fear is that the moment you take him out is when he rights the ship but is that upside worth the damage he could do to your staff? Nolasco leads the NL in hits allowed (58) and ER (36).

Scott Baker – So far in 2009, Baker has a 2.14 HR/9 mark. This week he goes on the road to face the White Sox against their top pitcher, Mark Buehrle. And his second start he faces the Brewers, who are tied for the lead in the NL with 45 HRs.

Shairon Martis – Yes, he’s 5-0 but his peripherals are underwhelming. And LHB have really feasted on Martis this year. Lefties have a .319/.394/.473 mark in 104 PA versus the rookie from Curacao. The Pirates lineup features five lefty hitters while the Orioles as a team are batting .288/.362/.474 versus RHP.

Brandon McCarthy – The Texas pitcher is 3-1 and has two road starts this week. Ordinarily that would be a good thing, but McCarthy actually has pitched better at home so far this season. Still, his pitching matchups are Dontrelle Willis and Mike Hampton. The Rangers are third in the league in runs scored, they have a .292 AVG versus LHP and should be able to give McCarthy good run support versus pitchers who are several years removed from their last good season.

Jason Hammel – Yes, the ERA looks really bad but Hammel has been killed at Coors Field, where he has allowed 12 ER in 10 IP. This week he has two road starts, where Hammel has yet to give up a run in 10 innings. Plus, he gets to face Jo-Jo Reyes and Willis in his two starts. This is a good guy to pick up off the waiver wire for this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 7 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Haren, J. Johnson, F. Hernandez, Hamels, Shields, Lilly, Lee Buehrle, Jurrjens, Pettitte, Wolf, Young, Wakefield, E. Santana, Washburn, Richmond, Zito, Bannister, Pineiro, Perkins, Ohlendorf, Marquis, Palmer, Tallet, Looper, Willis, Hampton, Owings, Niemann, Augenstein, Bergesen, Outman, Gallagher, Karstens, Redding, Reyes, Richard.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 5 and how they did.

Beckett – Advised to sit. W, 10 K, 4.50 ERA, 1.67 WHIP (2 starts)
Volstad – Advised to sit. 6 K, 3.75 ERA, 1.50 WHIP (2)
Buehrle – Advised to start. W, 5 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.38 WHIP (1)
Maholm – Advised to start. 9 K, 6.57 ERA, 1.46 WHIP (2)
Paulino – Advised to start but sent to bullpen.