Daily Fantasy Strategy – 9/23/13 – For Draftstreet

Are the playoffs here yet? Because I’m a) tired of watching the Rangers lose, b) sweating out the day-to-day fluctuations in my big money roto league, and c) trying to find something new to say in this article twice a week. So after the jump I’m going to repeat a couple of things. First, I’ll have a chart showing how each of today’s probable starters have performed against batters of each handedness this year. And then I’ll pick a few players and recite some familiar analysis alongside them.

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The Daily Five

Christian Yelich, $5,045 – We all know that Roy Halladay isn’t what he used to be, but his ERAs in the chart above are startling. And his numbers against lefties are atrocious. He’s walked more lefties than he has struck out. And Yelich is a lefty who has fared quite well against right-handed pitching this year with a .391 wOBA against them. Five thousand bucks seems too low for such a good matchup.

Giancarlo Stanton, $8,280 – Halladay sucks against righties, too.

Eric Hosmer, $7,133 – Brandon Mauer isn’t any good, and Hosmer will have the platoon advantage against him. And Hosmer’s price is reasonable. That’s why Hosmer is in my lineup for the day. But let’s pause for a moment and talk about how good Hosmer has been this year. Or rather, let’s talk about how good he has been since June.

Hosmer’s problem has always been that he simply doesn’t hit enough balls in the air to take advantage of his power potential. In April and May, his fly ball percentages were 21.8% and 19.1%. But from June until present, his FB% by month has been 22.7%, 25.8%, 30.6%, 30.4%. He’s also hitting line drives at a much higher rate this year. Thanks to those factors, his ISO has been well over .150 since June. And the line drives plus his above average plate discipline have contributed to a .304 batting average.

The kid is just 23 and could grow into even more pop. As long he keeps putting balls in the air, he’s got excellent upside.

Brandon McCarthy, $10,128 – McCarthy just isn’t striking anyone out lately. And knowing him, that’s probably intentional. But he isn’t walking anyone either. And when I say anyone, I mean anyone. Well, hardly anyone. He has allowed just one walk to the last 142 batters he has faced. I know strikeouts matter in daily contests, but I’m a believer that run prevention is more important. And McCarthy has been quite good at that recently. He’ll also face the Padres who scores runs against right-handers at a rate that is 7% below the league average.

Justin Verlander, $15,180 – The Twins have the sixth worst wRC+ against right-handers and the second worst K%. I don’t trust Verlander a ton, but some of the other elite options don’t have great matchups while Adam Wainwright is too expensive.

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Yelich is good value, but this is still an awful marlins team offensively. Halladay went 6 vs them last time giving up 4 hits, 3 bb’s and a 1 er. He’ll prob just walk stanton twice if he can’t get him to chase and then get ruggiano to ground out.