Archive for Brandon Finnegan

Identifying pitching breakouts as they happen can be hard. Anticipating them, even harder. Savvy readers of sites such as this rely on plate discipline metrics, batted ball data, and other indicators designed to tease out luck from results in order to uncover which performances have staying power and which are fleeting. And while we’ve arrived at the point in the season when most pitching rates have stabilized, a simple change in pitch mix can render those indicators obsolete. Think Matt Shoemaker and his splitter, Jake Arrieta and his cutter, Max Scherzer and his curveball, or Sonny Gray and his slider.

If you can spot a pitcher pulling unexpected arrows from his quiver as he does it, then cheers to you. But it’s difficult to do that at scale. While trying to anticipate a change in pitch mix before it happens may seem futile at times, doing so is a bet on potential. And what we talk about when we talk about “stuff,” is really potential. One of the components upon which that potential relies, aside from command and health, is an optimal pitch mix.

To identify which pitchers could benefit by throwing their more effective offerings a little more frequently, we have a number of tools at our disposal. Today, we’ll use some of those tools to identify the league’s underthrown four-seam fast balls and sinkers and the pitchers who underthrow them.
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Hey, we’re back for another season of #2xSP! As you may already know, we’ll try gear this article up for Thursday afternoons during the season. It’s a two-way street, so if you see something you’d like to have changed or something that should be altered, let me know and I’m willing to listen!

Here’s how we finished last season:

46-46 record
3.90 ERA
8.2 K/9
2.9 K/BB
1.32 WHIP
61 quality starts

That’s not too bad considering we do below 50 percent ownership, no? If you want us to go lower, we can consider that as well. Pardon the brevity this weekend — we have a baby shower tomorrow and I’m in crazy prep mode!

Here are this week’s recs (usually with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses, but not this week since the season just started):

RHP Jerad Eickhoff – 45.2% ESPN – v. NYM, @WAS

He just sneaks in under the wire in terms of ownership, and is coming off falling on the short side of a duel with our second guy this week. Eickhoff does pretty much everything well but not excellently, though the penchant for allowing home runs is a little concerning. Still, solid strikeout rate, no walks and at least so far this year it looks like he might try keep the ball on the ground a bit. Give him a spin! Read the rest of this entry »

Alright so we’re back here for another edition of #2xSP. There aren’t many left of these this year, so maybe it’s time to reflect, or at least look forward. I think a reasonably fair goal is to keep the ERA under 4.00, strikeouts above 8.0 per nine innings and maybe, just maybe sneak that K/BB up over 3.0. It’s fair to say this year has gone markedly better than last: 4.66 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 2.2 K/BB and 1.41 WHIP, and this year is more consistent with the previous two years in the now four-year (?!?) track record of this column.

Here’s where we stand so far this season:

42-40 record
3.95 ERA
8.2 K/9
2.9 K/BB
1.33 WHIP
59 quality starts
Real-world equivalent: roughly Jake Odorizzi?

Here are this week’s recs (with opponents wRC+ in parentheses):

LHP Tyler Anderson – 20.6% ESPN – v. SFG (101), @SDP (87)

With Anderson it flat out boils down to the fact that I love him. I love a guy who can get strikeouts (8.3 K/9), grounders (53.5%) and doesn’t walk many (2.2 BB/9), and that is even more true at Coors Field. He’s posted a 3.43 ERA that checks out peripherally, and I just don’t see that many red flags with him after 15 MLB starts. I’m cautiously optimistic he can handle Coors long-term, as he’s posted a 3.11 ERA at home versus a 4.21 mark on the road, but his opposing batter splits are flipped in that respect. Batters have hit .266/.318/.409 against him at Coors Field, and just .211/.267/.383 on the road. Even if the answer is somewhere in the middle, I think he’s a really solid guy moving forward. Read the rest of this entry »

After a rough week eight, we’re off to a pretty solid start with week nine — 3.92 ERA, 23-1 K/BB ratio, 10 K/9 and 0.92 WHIP with two quality starts in three opportunities — and hopefully we can parlay that into something solid here in week 10.

Here are the season results so far:

19-15
3.96 ERA
8.2 K/9
3.0 K/BB
1.33 WHIP
30 quality starts

Here are this week’s recommendations, with opposing team’s wRC+ in parentheses:

RHP Jerad Eickhoff – 12.8% ESPN – @TOR (95), v. ARI (98)

I really hate recommending pitchers going up against one another on Monday or Tuesday, and that’s exactly what’s happening here. Still, it is a very sparse week to choose from, and I like how Eickhoff has pitched for the most part recently. Especially last time out, as he held the Cubs to just one earned run in seven innings with eight strikeouts and just four baserunners total (two hits, two walks). That’s a hell of an offense to shut down. Four of Eickhoff’s last five starts have been quality starts, and for the most part he’s been pretty sturdy all season long (4.15 ERA in April, 3.99 in May). I’m a sucker for guys who can get grounders and strikeouts, especially if they don’t walk anyone (1.8 BB/9). Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

The Kansas City Royals’ rotation lost its staff ace this offseason as James Shields moved on to greener pastures, and by greener, I mean he signed a contract with the San Diego Padres worth $75 million over four years with a 2019 team option. The 33-year old was the only member of the American League pennant winner’s rotation who bested a 3.0 WAR (Shields posted a 3.7 WAR), and one of only two starters to eclipse 200 innings pitched (Jeremy Guthrie was the other). Beyond the absence of Shields, the rest of the rotation is likely to feature four familiar faces, at least to open the year.

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