Archive for Brad Lidge

There are a sundry of middle/set-up relievers that can succeed in the closer role if given the opportunity. A few obvious: Wade Davis if something happens to Greg Holland… Wil Myers for James Shields and who?!; Ken Giles if the Phillies can somehow find a trade partner for the grundle-grabber; and Brad Boxberger if not Jake McGee. I assume David Robertson signs elsewhere and Dellin Betances steps in.

Lets’ look at potential closers using reliever outcomes. Here are the average contact and balls in play-related outcomes for all relievers that qualified and specifically relievers with 10+ saves:

Our Filters: 

• Contact-related outcomes: For K-BB%, Ct% and SwStr%, I filtered simply by the general relief pitcher averages. Everyone below average in these 3 categories was filtered out.
• Command-related outcomes: For zone% and first-pitch-strike%, I used 1 standard deviation below average and 1.25 SD’s below average in BABIP as filters. 1.25 SD allowed me to omit only the relievers that had career BABIP’s higher than we would like to see for a closer or in general. I didn’t want to screen out Jenrry Mejia (1.24 SD below the mean) or Tim Stauffer (1.19 SD below), because there’s a possibility for BABIP regression.
• Balls In Play-related outcomes: I was lax on the balls in play outcomes. I went with a 40% Grounder rate and 45% Flyball rate as my filters versus the averages that you see above because below average fly-rates don’t mean much in places like Tampa (where Boxberger is elite but below average in fly-rates); and above average grounder-rates don’t mean as much with atrocious defense behind you (hence Corey Kluber’s unlucky BABIP, which should have been closer to .299 per end-of-season xBABIP/Inside Edge data), but I digress.

Using these filters, we’re left with a robust list of above-average relievers beyond just closers (scroll down for the noted filters):

What happens if we use the command (K-BB%)/contact (Ct% and SwStr%) related averages for relievers with more than 10 saves this year? 

…We’re left with some elite closers and then a few interesting names.

Last year, Danny Farquhar (just missed the list this year) had a top 20 swinging-strike rate – about a percent better than Fernando Rodney, but it was masked by his BABIP and left-on-base rate that killed his surface stats (4.20 ERA vs. 2.40 xFIP). This year, he actually outperformed his xFIP with a 2.66 ERA. After an early season MASH Report on Rodney’s velocity, I eyed Farquhar. At least keep him in mind next year if anything does happen to Rodney.

Josh Edgin (Mets for those of you that don’t know) has a top 65 contact-rate sandwiched between Mark Melancon and Jake McGee and even induced grounders 50% of the time. He has a pretty extensive repertoire as well. In order of usage: Fourseamer, Slider, Curve, Change, Cutter and Sinker. According to his Brooks Player Card, he has great swing and miss rates on his Curve (>56%), Cutter (50%), Slider (>42%) and Sinker (33%). Even his Change approaches 30%. This isn’t the case on his Fastball, but at 93+ MPH, it induces a decent amount of grounders (1.8 GB/FB). Keep in mind he had late-season elbow issues which effected his velocity by a MPH or so, but he could be called upon to get Mejia out of a jam. I like him better than an unhealthy Bobby Parnell and Jeurys Familia from a command perspective for another year.

Zach Duke did his best Craig Kimbrel impression prior to the R2M monster hitting him in August. Prior to 8/1, Duke had a 34.9% K-rate and 27.3 K-BB%. Kimbrel ended the year with a 38.9% K-rate and 28.3 K-BB%. I think August and September brought him back to his realistic value (~2.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). It will be interesting to see who closes for the Brewers if they let Francisco Rodriguez go. Both Duke and Will Smith have above average (even for RP w/ 10+ saves) swing-and-miss. Will Smith should have additional command next year, but Zack Duke induces grounders better which I like in my closers/in Milwaukee. They also have Jonathan Broxton. The hierarchy seemed to be K-rod-Broxton-Smith late last season. If that’s the case, they should use Duke more (former starter) and in higher leverage situations. He was equally solid against both lefties (.258 wOBA) and righties (.262 wOBA).

Oliver Perez everybody! I thought I could filter him out by his splits being a lefty, but like 2012, he was more effective vs. righties (and faced 44 more of them). The D-backs have Addison Reed, up-and-comer Evan Marshall as well as Daniel Hudson caught touching 97 MPH so if not by outcomes or splits, we can filter Perez out by opportunity.

Darren O’Day and Andrew Miller is part of one dominating Baltimore bullpen – one that gets referenced by anyone who thinks the Orioles can beat the Tigers in the ALDS. Notice that Zach Britton didn’t make either of the above lists! He was filtered out by his below average K-BB% (13.70%). It’s his 75+% grounder rate (hence the 81+% left-on-base rate and .215 BABIP) that keeps him elite in Baltimore. The only concern you can have with O’Day is a fastball velocity almost 2 standard deviations below the mean for relievers, but his arm angle combined with that slider still induces a 30+% whiff-rate on both pitches. Miller’s slider though is a world apart from O’Day’s: only Pedro Strop, Will Smith, Jake Diekman, Greg Holland and Oliver Perez induces more whiffs than Miller’s 55% according to Baseball Prospectus’ Pitchf/x Leaderboards.  I doubt we’ll see a closer-transition next year in Baltimore unless Britton’s GB/FB ratio takes a drastic dive because his HR/FB ratio, which approached 18%, could be an issue.

An xBABIP review

On the last day of the season, @jeffwzimmerman provided me with Pitch xBABIP based on inside edge data. Let’s look at some of the bigger xBABIP differentials to keep in mind:

The last column depicts the z-score for BABIP differential. Francisco Rodriguez was expected to have a BABIP about 120 points above his actual BABIP. I highlighted (red/bad; green/good) the xBABIP z-scores as well so that you know whether or not to actually be concerned meaning sure Aaron Sanchez has the 5th biggest BABIP differential (over 2 standard deviations from the mean), but a .239 xBABIP is still utterly elite (3.34 SD’s from the mean). On the other side of the equation, it’s nice to see Evan Marshall, Carlos Martinez and Adam Ottavino (albeit in Colorado) with large BABIP differentials. Marshall and Martinez even have xBABIP’s over .5SD from the mean.

The last bit of fun

It was a very fun year to be doing bullpen reports for RotoGraphs. Aroldis Chapman broke the single-season strikeout rate of 2012 Craig Kimbrel (50.2%). He struck out 52.5% of the hitters he faced. Andrew Miller (42.6%) and Brad Boxberger (42.1%) also made the top 10 seasons ever. Dellin Betances (39.6%), Wade Davis (39.1%) and Craig Kimbrel (38.9%) made the top 20. Chapman’s swinging-strike% of 20% beat ’12 Kimbrel by .8%, but he couldn’t pass ’04 Lidge, ’03 Gagne, ’04 Gagne, ’02 Gagne or ’05 Lidge. Chapman, Miller, Doolittle, Boxberger, Betances (Wade Davis and Kenley Jansen close behind) all had historical, top 20 K-BB rates. Relievers dominate this list: only ’99 Pedro Martinez (#12), ’00 Pedro Martinez (#21), ’01 Randy Johnson (#27) and ’01 Pedro Martinez (#28) make it into the top 30, but it’s clear that we have a growing list of elite relievers.

From a fantasy perspective, thanks to 45+ saves totals out of Holland and Kimbrel, we had two relievers ranked in the top 20 pitchers. If Chapman didn’t miss time and Betances and Davis consumed the closer role, we would have had 3 others. Last year, Craig Kimbrel and his 4 wins, 50 saves, 98 SO’s, 1.21 ERA and .88 WHIP campaign made him the 3rd most valuable pitcher. This year with Kershaw, Cueto, Felix and Kluber, it would have taken even more.

If we combined the 3 more dominating performances exclusive of saves this year: Aroldis Chapman’s K-rate (52.5%) and saves total (36), Dellin Betances IP (90) – who was dominating in his own right, Wade Davis’ ERA (1.00) and Wins total (9) and Sean Doolittle’s WHIP (.73) – let’s call this guy Aroldellin Dooldavis, we would wind up with a 10.95 z-sum…just above Corey Kluber (10.72), but under Clayton Kershaw (13.74), Johnny Cueto (12.95) and Felix Hernandez (12.50). Even 50 saves wouldn’t have done the trick (12.43 z-sum):

In his first (almost) full year as the Phillies closer, it’s been an outstanding year for Ryan Madson.  With the usual injury issues of Brad Lidge and the seemingly ageless Jose Contreras, Madson, who for years has been the trusted right-handed set-up man and spot closer for the team, took over the ninth inning  job early on and never looked back.  He finished the regular season with 32 saves, a 2.37 ERA (2.25 FIP), and 62 strikouts in 60.2 innings of work.  He posted a rock solid 48.8 GB%, a meager 3.7% HR/FB, and had a manager’s dreamlike 80.7% LOB.  Now he takes his game to the playoffs where his mettle will be further tested as he will be relied upon to be the team’s stopper on baseball’s biggest stage.  All the while, likely sitting in the back of his mind, his impending free agency looms.  That’s quite a load for anyone to handle.  But while all that is fine and dandy for those that live in the real world, we’re still living in a fantasy baseball world here and what Madson owners everywhere want to know is — where will he land next season and will he remain a closer?

Read the rest of this entry »

While most are taking a little breather from their fantasy baseball teams during the All Star Break, it can’t hurt to scour your waiver wire and see who’s still out there that may help you out for your second half push.  Players coming back from injury are always a good target as well as players recently called back up from the minors.  Here are two for you to consider… Read the rest of this entry »

The night before Opening Day makes me feel like an 8 year old kid on Christmas Eve, staring at a mountain of presents sitting under the tree waiting to be torn into the next morning.  That one’s definitely an Xbox, those are the video games, and somewhere in that pile is definitely a new baseball glove.  Then morning comes and with unbridled excitement I rush to the pile and start ripping paper with a fury like no other.    Socks and underwear?  A sweater?  These aren’t video games, they’re books.  And who the hell gives an 8 year old a stationery set and thank you cards?  I got rolled on Christmas morning!!

Well, that’s what’s going on now for many of us as we look over our rosters that we were absolutely gushing over as recently as last week.  Suddenly you see a bunch of red crosses next to the names, platoon situations are being discussed, and statuses are being changed from “active” to “minors”.  I know that Opening Day is supposed to be a day filled with excitement and fresh starts, but now it just feels like the fantasy gods have come down and kicked me in the groin….twice.  Here’s what I’m bitching about: Read the rest of this entry »

As much joy as the game of fantasy baseball brings to most of us, it can also bring an enormous amount of frustration and anxiety.  They say you shouldn’t keep that sort of stuff bottled up inside you, unless, of course, you enjoy the taste of bile and all the other stomach acids that a bleeding ulcer provides.  You need to get it out.  But what are you going to do, bitch to your girlfriend?  Try to gain sympathy from your fellow owners?  Doubtful.   Her level of care is reciprocal to your level of interest in her best friend’s latest relationship disaster and deep down, your fellow owners are wishing this kind of stuff on you. Read the rest of this entry »

So all Andrew Bailey has is a forearm strain and Brad Lidge is merely sitting with a sore right biceps tendon.  If you’ve already drafted and own either guy, it’s time to play it safe, grab Brian Fuentes and Jose Contreras, maybe even Grant Balfour and Ryan Madson, and consider the bullet dodged….for now.  But if you haven’t drafted yet, then perhaps it’s time for a little strategy session and see if you can turn this potential closer catastrophe to your favor. Read the rest of this entry »

Austin Kearns | OF | Cleveland (9% owned)
Remember the good ol’ days when Kearns was considered good? Well, he’s not quite ready to give up the ghost. After two very lackluster years in Washington, Kearns has found his stroke in Cleveland. He’s currently hitting .333/.405/.561 in 18 games. The .435 BABIP and 27.3 K% lets us know that he’s not going to keep the average above .300 for the year, but there is still hope in the power category. Kearns currently has a .227 ISO rate and he hasn’t surpassed .200 over a full season since ’06 when he slugged 24 homers.

Juan Pierre | OF | Chicago AL (30%)
It’s not often that you’ll find the Major League steals leader available in 70% of leagues at the end of April. Unfortunately, speed is his only offering right now. Have faith, though. Pierre isn’t a great all-around ball player, but he has a career .299 batting average, so he’s going to improve over the .218 that he’s currently hitting. Proven speedsters like Pierre don’t post a BABIP of .227 forever and his 4% strikeout rate shows that he’s putting a lot of balls into play. Quite a few fantasy managers could use his extra 14 steals right about now; just make sure you can afford the hit in batting average.

Nate Schierholtz | OF | San Francisco (2%)
Schierholtz is finally getting a chance to play in San Francisco. The 26-year-old outfielder is currently hitting .350/.426/.517 in 69 at-bats. He’s owned in just 2% of leagues and he’d be in the Top 10 in batting average if he had enough at-bats to qualify. On the downside, he’s being platooned against left-handers (which is actually quite possibly a blessing) and he has yet to hit a homer this year. Have faith, though, the young player has excellent raw power so the homers are going to come. Grab him before he goes on a power run and gains more attention, especially in NL-only leagues.

Jose Contreras | RP | Philadelphia (6%)
With the recent news that Ryan Madson is going to be gone for a while, Contreras moves up in the pecking order for save opportunities. With Brad Lidge being as volatile as a pit bull in a washing machine, Contreras could see some end-game chances in the near future. In nine games, the veteran Cuban has a 0.33 xFIP, as well as a 16.43 K.9 rate and he has yet to walk a batter. Wow. Small sample size be damned. That’s still impressive.

*Ownership numbers based on Yahoo Fantasy Baseball

There are a couple of day games set to get underway around the baseball world. Let’s dive into some fantasy links before the action starts.

Matt Stroup of Rotoworld likes the Rangers’ Chris Davis, the Cardinals’ John Smoltz and, surprisingly, the Rays’ Pat Burrell in this week’s version of “Waiver Wired.” Burrell, as Stroup notes, is 14-for-35 (.400) since receiving two days off in mid-August with a sore neck. He has mashed two homers and seven RBI in that span, and is available in most fantasy leagues.

Charlie Saponara of Fantasy Baseball 365 takes note of the possible fill-ins if closers Chad Qualls and Trevor Hoffman are moved before the August 31 waiver trade deadline. “Though there is a better chance that nothing happens than a trade actually being made (both GM’s would expect a decent return), we should be prepared to add replacement closers should something go down,” writes Saponara.

Eric Cunningham of RotoTimes.com is still monitoring platoon situations throughout the league, including the Rangers’ catching depth and the Cardinals’ interchangeable outfield.

R.J. White of AOL Fanhouse thinks Cole Hamels may be righting the ship, using the left-hander’s impressive outing against the Pirates Wednesday night as evidence. “Hamels actually has been better than his ERA and WHIP indicate, as he now has 126 Ks versus just 33 BBs this season,” writes White. “I’ll take that K/BB ratio from my pitcher any day, as nine times out of ten, the ERA and WHIP will be sparkling.”

Alex Geshwind of Fantasy Bullpen is ready to discuss the 2010 fantasy baseball season (must be a Cubs fan), and begins with a look at the catching position. Here’s an interesting question he poses: “Is Joe Mauer a first-rounder?”

Scott Pianowski of Yahoo! Sports reviews the status of closers around the league, including the frustrating developments in Philadelphia. In case you’ve lost track, Brad Lidge now has nine blown saves and Ryan Madson, his likely backup, has blown five. “Madson is in the middle of a strong campaign (3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) so there’s no need to pile on with him,” writes Pianowski, “but you have to wonder if the Phillies will try to get creative as they angle for the playoffs.”

Have an article or column you think others would like to see? Shoot me an e-mail or find me on Twitter.

It’s once again time to play one of our favorite games around these parts: Name That Pitcher! Here are our mystery hurlers…

Pitcher A: 69.1 IP, 11.94 K/9, 4.54 BB/9, .317 BABIP, 82.9 LOB%

Pitcher B: 67 IP, 11.82 K/9, 4.03 BB/9, .308 BABIP, 78.3 LOB%

As you can see, our mystery pitchers are strikingly similar. Both racked up huge strikeout numbers and walked a fair amount of batters. Neither guy experienced terrible luck on balls in play, though Pitcher A fared worse in that category. Pitcher A was also a little better in stranding runners on base. Overall, though, these two stat lines are near reflections of one another.

However, the perception of the two diverges pretty dramatically. Pitcher A was a perfect 41-for-41 in save opportunities and was considered to have perhaps the best relief season in the game. On the other hand, Pitcher B was considered a pretty large disappointment, so much so that he was shipped out of town for a middle reliever, a lukewarm third base prospect and a center fielder who posted a mind-numbing .276 wOBA (22.1 runs below average) in 2008.

So, who are these guys? As you’ve probably already guessed, Pitcher A is Brad Lidge. Pitcher B is…also Brad Lidge, in 2007.

While Lidge was somewhat better in 2008, this comparison serves to show how there really wasn’t that wide of a difference between “head case” Lidge in ’07 and “World Series champ” Lidge in ’08. Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times (which evaluates pitchers based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run/flyball rate), we find that ’07 Lidge (3.42) was a little worse than ’08 Lidge (3.06), but not by as much as one might initially think. What led to the big gap in perception?

Home runs. In 2007, Lidge gave up 9 long balls in 67 innings, or 1.21 per nine innings. His Home/Flyball rate was pretty lofty, at 13.2% (and that was actually an improvement from an inauspicious 16.4% mark in ’06). In 2008, Lidge served up only 2 home runs in 69.1 innings, or a measly 0.26 per nine innings.

Nothing changed dramatically in the Notre Dame product’s batted ball data- rather, his HR/FB rate sank to an absurdly low 3.9%. To put that into context, pitchers typically give up two and a half to three times as many homers per flyball hit, and Lidge’s career HR/FB is 10%. Couple regression to the mean with a homer happy ballpark (Citizens Bank’s three-year HR park factor is 122), and it seems very likely that Lidge’s HR rate will quadruple next season.

This is the challenge faced when evaluating reliever performance. We’re dealing with inherently small sample sizes, and a few fortunate or unlucky bounces here or there can dramatically change the perception and quality of a player’s season. By most measures, Brad Lidge circa 2007 was a doppelganger of the relief ace that helped the Phillies win a world championship. But because a few extra flyballs found their way into the stands in ’07 and virtually none did in ’08, the two seasons are viewed as different as night and day.

The purpose of this exercise is not to diminish Brad Lidge’s accomplishments this past season. He enjoyed an excellent ’08 campaign, racking up a league-leading 5.37 WPA. However, his minuscule HR/FB rate does figure to rise in 2009. With some extra souvenirs likely finding their way to the paying customers, Lidge might revert back to the 2007 version of himself next season. And you know what? That’s not really a bad thing.