Archive for Blue Jays

As daunting as chasing saves can be, adding in the pending trade deadline to trade rumors makes it difficult to publish an early report. But here we are. News of a hugwatch broke out on Twitter suggesting Jeurys Familia could be on the move. He did not enter an obvious save opportunity against the Yankees on the road leaving Robert Gsellman in for the two inning save. While news broke on which teams would not be adding Familia, it appears the focus centers on Oakland trying to obtain his services to add to their already stocked bullpen. If the A’s do not wish to overpay in a scarce starting pitcher market, why not try to shorten games with a deep bullpen? Familia’s yet to allow a run in seven scoreless outings in July yielding one hit in them. He’s also been scoreless in 10 of his last 11 appearances. It needs to be pointed out Familia should setup if he joins the A’s due to his inability to get left-handed hitters out this year (.288 batting average against).

However, since there’s no official word as of this writing, the charts will not be updated until teams announce a deal. As for the Mets, it appears Robert Gsellman could transition to the closer role with Anthony Swarzak struggling and Seth Lugo needed for multiple inning outings. Gsellman did give up two unearned runs against the Yankees on two hits and two walks with two strikeouts during his two inning save. It’s his fifth save this year but Gsellman will need to rebound in the second half in order to appeal to fantasy owners. He’s coughed up 13 earned runs over his last 12 games (14.1 innings) resulting in a 8.18 ERA. Perhaps the break will help him bounce back, but it could be a bumpy ride if he does ascend to the ninth inning. Read the rest of this entry »

I started the Two Good Starts, Two Bad Starts column a few weeks back when I realized that I often begin to change my perception of a pitcher after a pair of consecutive starts that defy my expectations. It’s rarely a good idea to change your decision rule about starting or sitting a pitcher on the basis of two starts, but at least you can be more open to the possibility that the pitcher in question maybe isn’t as good or as bad as you thought.

In last week’s column, I raised the possibility that Wei-Yin Chen might be viable at some point in some deeper mixed leagues by drawing attention to a couple of good starts that were backed up by a rising whiff rate and increased fastball velocity. In his subsequent outing against the Nationals, his velocity remained higher than it had been, but he got just three swings-and-misses on his way to a seven-run shellacking over 4.1 innings. I’m still intrigued by Chen’s resurgence in velocity, but I’m glad I haven’t dedicated a roster spot to him yet.
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Predictably, Sam Dyson struggled as the interim closer with Hunter Strickland sidelined due to a self inflicted injury. With intriguing arms like Reyes Moronta, Tony Watson and Will Smith, the Giants had options for the ninth inning with better ratios and performance over the last month. Bruce Bochy opted for Will Smith in the ninth inning in Arizona for a chance to record his first save since April 13th, 2014. Smith responded with a clean inning and striking out two. Returning from a myriad of injuries, Smith’s been terrific this season and especially in June. His 0.75 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 21 strikeouts to four walks punctuate how good Smith’s been over his last 12 innings.

Delving a bit deeper, Smith’s 24 swinging strike percentage along with a 47.8 O-swing percentage (chase rate) combined with his 56.7 percent contact allowed fuel his surge in June. On the season, Smith’s limited left-handed hitters to a .180/.200/.231 slash line in 10.2 innings with 18 strikeouts and right-handed hitters to a .071/.191/.103 average against with 15 strikeouts. If Smith remains the preferred option for Bochy going forward, both Tony Watson and Reyes Moronta will remain on the periphery of saves if Smith needs a break. Watson possesses closer experience and currently in the midst of a 13.1 scoreless inning streak spanning 14 outings. Moronta notched his fourth hold last night and has 11 strikeouts, three wins and a save with a 3.71 ERA his last 12 games. Read the rest of this entry »

Though he is owned sparingly in fantasy leagues, Sam Gaviglio is a slightly above-average American League pitcher in terms of ERA, WHIP and strikeout rate. His current season, however, is nothing short of extreme.

The typical pitcher in 2018 is less attached to the strike zone. Over the previous eight seasons, Zone% had largely held steady year-to-year, ranging from a low of 44.2 percent in 2013 to a high of 45.8 percent in 2010. So far in 2018, the major league average Zone% is down to 43.1 percent.

While the average pitcher has slightly loosened his grip on throwing in the strike zone, Sam Gaviglio has been radical in his eschewing of the zone. Over 74.1 innings in his rookie 2017 season, split between the Mariners and Royals, a control-minded Gaviglio threw exactly half of his 1,126 pitches in the strike zone. This year, with the Blue Jays, the 28-year-old righty has gone wild, locating only 38.3 percent of his pitches in the zone.
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For the skills over role consensu, Kyle Barraclough continues to thrive as the closer for the Marlins in spite of starting the season as the primary setup reliever. Barraclough notched his fifth save firing a clean ninth inning with two strikeouts in his fourth outing over the last five days. He’s yielded no runs his last 16 games spanning 15.2 innings and only allowed one hit in these appearances. During the season, Barraclough’s not given up a hit in 25 of his 32 outings and been scoreless in 28 of them. Although he’s battled control issues in the past, Barraclough’s 1.15 ERA and 0.80 WHIP suggest he’s settling into the role quite well. Just plan on Miami giving him a day off on Saturday if possible to keep him healthy going forward.

It feels like one step forward and two steps back with Felipe Vazquez this season. He did record his 13th save allowing a hit but striking out two, including Joey Votto, to secure a win for the Pirates on Friday night. On the surface, Vazquez has blown four of his last eight save chances with an ERA of 4.55 yet a FIP of 2.87, so which number should fantasy owners focus on? Vazquez has cut down his hard hit percentage allowed by 5.6 points. However, he’s traded ground balls for line drives. His underlying discipline statistics do not display complete erosion of his skills as his swinging strike percentage approaches his 2016 numbers, but owners drafted Vazquez for the upside he displayed in the first half of last year. Over the last 14 days, Vazquez has worked 5.1 innings with nine strikeouts against five walks with a 3.38 ERA and 2.53 FIP. Almost a encapsulation of his season so far with hints of upside paired with the high amount of walks. Perhaps he can turn this around like Kenley Jansen did in April, but it’s not for the risk averse. Read the rest of this entry »

Drafting Alex Colome comes with inherent risk due to his sometimes volatile nature. Colome started the season giving up seven earned runs and 14 hits over his initial seven innings in eight outings resulting in two blown saves. His five losses leads the majors of all qualified relievers. However, Colome seemed to right the ship with a 1.84 ERA during his last 15 innings, including 10 consecutive saves with 17 strikeouts since April ninth. Many believed Colome would be traded to a contender, just not in May. However, Seattle bolstered its already strong bullpen by acquiring Colome to pitch in a setup role and provide insurance for Edwin Diaz along with necessary days off to keep him healthy.

Trying to predict how Kevin Cash will navigate high leverage innings in the near term seems impossible to do. The dreaded committee approach seems prudent to plan on with Chaz Roe, Jose Alvarado and Sergio Romo figuring in the mix. Roe’s struggled of late with a 6.75 ERA his last 12 appearances (six earned runs in eight innings) dating back to April 27th. HE has entered a Rays game in a tie or with a lead 19 of 24 times and in the seventh inning or later in 16 outings. Most fantasy owners would like to see Jose Alvarado ascend to the closer role due to his effectiveness this year along with his enticing fastball. Read the rest of this entry »

Anytime news breaks regarding an injury or the need for a change at closer, the speculation ensues. With Toronto’s Roberto Osuna placed on administrative leave by baseball, adding the correct Blue Jay reliever means a chance at procuring saves. Some focused on Seung-Hwan Oh who owns closing experience, but he pitched the sixth inning with his team down by one. Others took a chance on John Axford, he’s been pitching very well of late with seven straight scoreless outings over 9.1 innings with eight strikeouts and only one walk. Alas, he worked the seventh inning and his ability to work more than one inning could keep him out of the save mix going forward unless he records a “Hader”.

So, it boiled down to Ryan Tepera or Tyler Clippard. Manager John Gibbons opted for the closer experience with Tepera keeping his role in the eighth inning. Tepera garnered the win giving up a walk with a strikeout after Toronto rallied for four runs in the bottom of the frame. Then, Tyler Clippard entered for his first save of the year giving up a hit with two strikeouts. Over his last six appearances, Clippard’s registered three holds, a win and a save allowing four hits, an unearned run and a walk with 10 strikeouts. Although regression will happen with Clippard, it’s his role to lose with Toronto until more clarity emerges with Osuna’s pending suspension.

It’s hard to believe, but Craig Kimbrel’s never recorded a save requiring him to get more than four outs. He tried again to make history last night, but not only blew the save, his outing led to a Red Sox loss. Many will question his entering the game so soon, but with it on the line, Alex Cora made the right move, it just did not work out. Kimbrel entered with runners on first and third with one out giving up a triple to Brett Gardner to turn the tide then Aaron Judge hit a home run to center before Kimbrel retired the last two by strikeouts to end the inning. In spite of the blown save, Kimbrel’s been trending in the right direction of late. Speaking of which, Aroldis Chapman closed the door notching his ninth save giving up a hit and striking out three working on back-to-back days. Same goes for Chad Green, so if a save chance presents itself in the Bronx tonight, plan on David Robertson to get the opportunity.  Read the rest of this entry »

Roberto Osuna was arrested in Toronto on Tuesday morning and charged with assault, and shortly thereafter, the Commissioner’s Office placed him on administrative leave. Osuna is scheduled for a June 18 court date, and meanwhile, Major League Baseball will be conducting its own investigation under the joint MLB-MLBPA Domestic Violence Policy.

With James Paxton tossing a no-hitter against the Blue Jays on Tuesday night, Toronto had no need for a closer. John Gibbons put the team’s closer situation in its proper perspective, given the seriousness of the charges against Osuna; he has yet to indicate who might fill the ninth-inning role. General manager Ross Atkins stated that Osuna could be out longer or shorter than the default seven-day leave period for an investigation, depending on how the investigation progresses. During that time, Ryan Tepera and/or Seung Hwan Oh would presumably be called upon in save situations.
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It’s always interesting to look back at lopsided trades like the one that sent Teoscar Hernandez to Toronto, especially because the team that gave him up was the Houston Astros, a franchise that the vast majority of knowledgeable fans would agree tends to make many more smart decisions than dumb ones. With that in mind, I think what was amazing about the Teoscar deal is just how down the Astros were on the talented young outfielder.

On July 31, 2017, the Astros traded Teoscar and Nori Aoki to the Blue Jays. The return? Francisco Liriano, who brought with him a truly shameful 5.88 ERA, which was largely fueled by his 4.68 BB/9. Even at the time, it seemed pretty clear that the Astros knew Liriano was washed up, as the club converted him to a glorified LOOGY. Liriano pitched a grand total of 16.2 IP with the Astros — 14.1 IP in the regular season, 2.1 IP in the playoffs — over the course of 25 appearances.

Of course, this post is not about Liriano, but it’s important to contextualize how little the Astros valued Teoscar that they were willing to part with him (and Aoki) for 16.2 IP of replacement-level relief pitching. With George Springer, Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez, Derek Fisher, and Jake Marisnick hanging around the major-league club — and stud prospect Kyle Tucker climbing through the minors — it’s certainly true that the Astros were dealing from depth. Still, the Jays did one hell of a job landing Teoscar in exchange for a 34-year-old pitcher fighting to keep his ERA under 6.00.

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Each Thursday, I’ll be looking at the top waiver targets who could be available in your deeper leagues. Every player who will be included in this series will have an ownership rate of 33 percent or lower in CBS and Fantrax leagues, which is a pretty good indication of these players being available in at least some mixed leagues with at least 15 teams.

Note: Ownership percentages are listed in parentheses, with CBS listed first and Fantrax listed second.

Franchy Cordero, OF, Padres (9/27): To be honest, I worried that by the time I wrote this, Cordero would be too popular to include in this week’s column. He is an industry favorite, probably in no small part because of the splash he made on Statcast leaderboards during his brief time up with the Padres last season. Both his barrels per batted ball event ratio (14.3 percent) and exit velocity on flies and liners (97.3 mph) placed Cordero in the top 20 for hitters with at least 30 batted balls.
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