Archive for blind resume

A month ago, I compared “name-brand” and “generic-brand” players using blind résumés, an exercise we’ve reiterated across several authors and years at RotoGraphs. A few years ago, you’d never find me in a mock draft, let alone several in one preseason. (More a matter of blocking out three hours on a whim, but also I probably (very foolishly) thought I didn’t need to partake in such trivialities.)

I’m super, super into the whole slow draft mock thing, though; I’ve completed a few this preseason, and I think they have already helped me understand the kinds of market inefficiencies (i.e., differences between perceived and actual values) that will arise on draft day. One of the easiest ways to identify said inefficiencies is to compare similarly skilled players, then assess their other pros and cons — the intangibles, if you will, such as health and age — to determine who’s the better value.

Here are a couple more pairings:

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I’ve done this before — compare similar players, one of whom is “name-brand,” the other “generic-brand,” using blind résumés — as have many others. Ben Kaspick carried the torch a while this year, but he credited Joe Douglas with the idea. So let’s say it’s a group effort to which I’ll contribute once again.

In anticipation of 2018 drafts, I wanted to carry out a “buying generic” style of analysis, borrowing in part from too-early mock draft average draft position (ADP) data. I do not intend to construe the following comparisons as rigorous analysis. I do, however, intend to highlight some potential bargains that, if the too-early mock ADP information is concerned, warrant your attention on draft day.

Comparison #1: Outfielders

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If I had a dollar for every time I used this lede, I’d have, what, like, four dollars? I can’t help myself. Blind résumés are my jam because so much of how we value players is tied up in our biases and preconceived notions. Alas, Starling Marte and, of all people, Hernan Perez make for excellent comparisons when prorating their 2016 stat lines. Per usual, I won’t tell you who’s who:

Did you figure it out? The home run column gives it away, given Perez (Player B) has hit more home runs than Marte (Player A) in about half as many plate appearances. Outside of that, we’re looking at mirror-image power, stolen base rates, and plate discipline, the latter of which is most fascinating to me. We’ll dig into the weeds in a bit here — Perez has some faults we ought to acknowledge — but for all intents and purposes, Marte and Perez are nearly-identical, very-elite options through the end of September. (Last week I mentioned this — that Perez could be a top-flight outfielder from here on out — and, frankly, I’m surprised I got virtually no push-back from readers.)

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When Dylan Higgins invited me on to the Field of Streams podcast last week, he asked me what I typically like to write about. My answer was an incoherent, stammering mess, but the gist of it was I like to write about all sorts of things. The trajectory of my writing has changed a lot over time.

I think I originally wanted to write primarily about market inefficiencies in fantasy baseball. The constant instantaneous misvaluation of players fascinates me, and effectively exploiting these inefficiencies make champions. Occasionally, I return to this topic.

That occasion is today, and today, I’m in the mood for blind résumés. I cherry-picked some stats for three players, whose names I stripped away, and I want you to decide, before reading any farther, in which order you would take these players.

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(Dave Andersen published a similar post for hitters in our Community section last week. Check it out here.)

I want to say something inspiring such as “it’s never too late to make a move,” but that’s patently untrue. In two of my leagues, it’s too late. Very, very too late. That kind of statement only applies to contenders.

Interpret it in a different context, however, and it carries some weight. If you play in a dynasty league, you can, and should, always make moves.

Major League Baseball has a bounty of young, electric pitching talent. A lot of that talent remains largely unowned, too, while other pitchers retain lofty ownership numbers because of their name recognition.

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