Archive for batting average

Hi! Disclaimer: In this post I use raw Statcast data to calculate expected batting average (xBA). Evidently the raw data do not include the sprint speed adjustment that the Statcast folks said they made. That adjustment only shows up on player pages and in the search. This explains why it seemed to me an adjustment had not been made! The xBA values on player pages are much closer than the raw values and look similar to what I have presented below, and it explains my confusion herein regarding the matter.

Thanks for reading!

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It has always seemed rather obvious to me that Statcast’s expected batting average (xBA) failed to properly account for a hitter’s speed (“sprint speed”). It seemed like fast hitters routinely outperformed their xBAs while slower hitters underperformed. In looking at a Statcast-era leaderboard (2015-21) of differentials between actual and expected batting averages on ground balls, obvious names rise to the top: Delino DeShields, Dee Strange-Gordon, Eduardo Núñez, Billy Hamilton, Jose Altuve, Jonathan Villar, Norichika Aoki, Mallex Smith, Jean Segura, Adam Eaton, Starling Marte… the list of players who have historically outperformed their xBAs by the widest margins are (were) all elite speedsters. At the other end of the spectrum, post-prime sluggers: Justin Smoak, Chris Davis, Logan Morrison, Jay Bruce, Kendrys Morales, etc. etc.

I thought this exact phenomenon, which is not a revelation by now, had once nudged the Statcast team to apply a sprint speed adjustment to xBA. Apparently, this happened sometime between the 2018 and 2019 seasons. Here’s the original snippet, which I very lightly edited for clarity:

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Yesterday, I borrowed PITCHf/x data from Baseball Savant to investigate how changes in batted ball velocity affected batting average on balls in play (BABIP) to a hitter’s pull side. If you’re too lazy to click, the short of it is: more velocity coincides with a better batting average. However! Lefties consistently fare worse than righties on ground balls to the pull side at all batted ball velocities.

This phenomenon can perhaps be attributed to the defensive shift. Or to the ease with which second and first basemen can convert singular outs at first base compared to their shortstop and third base counterparts due to the distance (and, thus, difficulty) of the throw. Or, most likely, to both.

But that’s not why I’m here. I’m not in the business to speculate — not today, at least. I’m just here to provide the facts in the form of some numbers I crunched in Microsoft Excel that, if you read yesterday’s post, you will probably find interesting. It has a nifty graph, if words aren’t your thing.

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You may have noticed that FanGraphs now feeds batted ball data, courtesy of Baseball Info Solutions, into its leaderboards. The day the data appeared, my mind buzzed with ways they could be useful in improving our understanding of a hitter’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP).

Mike Podhorzer already augmented previous attempts at devising an equation for expected batting average on balls in play (xBABIP) for hitters by incorporating elements of a hitter’s power, speed, plate discipline and batted ball tendencies. So, with fresh numbers in hand, I embarked on a journey to further improve the ever-evolving xBABIP. However, I sought to do so by using only batted ball data. Basically, I intended to develop a convenient xBABIP equation, one that can be computed using almost entirely variables found on the same page.

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For all the years that I’ve been playing fantasy baseball, I’ve never really understood the idea of punting saves. Not that I don’t understand the concept, but that I don’t understand the rationale behind thinking that it’s a good strategy. You load up on starters with the hope of locking up wins and strikeouts while doing your best to stay competitive in WHIP and ERA. Perfectly viable strategy, right? But what about the fact that Wins is, more or less, an arbitrary category and while your guy goes seven strong and exits with the lead, some clown of a set-up man comes in, walks the leadoff guy and then serves up a two-run shot to tie the game. A great game for your starter, for sure, but you make no advancement in a category you’ve supposedly built your team to excel in. Read the rest of this entry »