Archive for Austin Jackson

Steamer and I are good friends. It’s true – even though I don’t know Steamer’s gender, Steamer isn’t upset. We don’t always agree – often, we disagree – but that’s part of what keeps the fire alive.

Yesterday, I wrote about a couple of players whom I like more than the crowd does and, because of injuries, a lot or a little more than Steamer does. Brett Talley has blogged this month about some sleepers and busts derived from values calculated based on Steamer projections, and one of those entries is on sleeper position players, kind of an All-Sleeper Team.

To build on those things a little, and to focus on the good times Steamer and I have had, I cherry-picked from my spreadsheet of values some other position players whom Steamer projections suggest are sleepers or undervalued compared to early ADPs. I’d like them like quite a bit at their prices and would highlight them as probable targets.

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I guess I could have said Austin Jackson hates rain since everyone thinks it pours 365 in the Emerald City, but then again, Safeco Field is civilized enough to have a roof so inclement weather doesn’t really apply. Digression. The point is, Austin Jackson, after the post-non-waiver-trading-deadline thing was pretty bad as a member of the Seattle Mariners. And in fantasy circles, pretty bad is generally accepted as being something one wants to avoid should one like winning shiny things. The question of course is was his level of badness, in a non-Michael-Jackson badness way, some product of dumb luck? Or is he going to, as Mike Tyson once said, “fade into Bolivian.”

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In the “post-non-waiver-trading-deadline” narratives, it was thought that the Seattle Mariners had done pretty well for themselves. They were in need of a center fielder and they needed a right handed bat at a minimum and they managed to do just that, bringing in Austin Jackson and Chris Denorfia without giving up someone like Taijuan Walker. The Mariners brass had to be particularly thrilled with netting Jackson, who would ostensibly man center for the foreseeable future.

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OK, so not really. In fact, if you don’t know Brad Ausmus personally, then he probably doesn’t even know you have a fantasy team, let alone care about it. But the headline is a good attention-grabber and you all know how I love to lure you in with the headline. But while we all know that real-life managers don’t make their decisions based on how they’re going to impact the fantasy world, some times it feels like that when you own a player or two on that team and you don’t agree with a decision…or potential decision as the case may be here. I’m talking about the idea of Ian Kinsler batting leadoff for Detroit this year while Austin Jackson is moved down to the five-hole, or possibly even lower. Kinsler? Really? Read the rest of this entry »

While Nelson Cruz seems to be fouling up a half dozen of our depth chart discussions, assuming the Detroit Tigers don’t boldly go where everyone says not to, their outfield situation is pretty well sewn up. And although they may lack star power, for fantasy purposes, there are players that just might help you.

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If you’re a little light in the speed department, then a couple of situations have opened up that might interest you.  If you’re in an NL-only league, then my apologies.  Feel free to move along.  Nothing left to see here.  But if you’re in an AL-only or mixed league, then these guys just might be able to help you out. Read the rest of this entry »

Time to update the outfielders! Commenters from last week might be happy to see that a certain someone wearing White Sox has dropped into OF2 territory. The offending OF1 rankings can be seen here.

Worst of the Best?
1. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles (.377 wOBA, .409 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
2. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago (.427 wOBA, .371 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
3. Torii Hunter, Los Angeles (.356 wOBA, .366 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
4. Jason Heyward, Atlanta (.424 wOBA, .361 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
5. Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles (.348 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Alex Rios and Carlos Gonzalez join the OF1s next time around, although I just remain skeptical of Rios and think Go CarGo could benefit from a few less swings. The first tier here consists mostly of uninspiring veterans that just don’t have the upside to really be solid OF1s, and then the king of Upside himself, Jason Heyward. Many will question why he isn’t on the OF1 list, but he’s in barely-charted water for a 20 year old, as David Cameron showed this week. If the strikeout rate continues to fall – showing his ability to adjust – he’ll be on the first list soon enough.

If You Squint Just Right They Could Still be an OF1, I Promise
6. Adam Dunn, Washington (.392 wOBA, .394 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
7. Adam Lind, Toronto (.300 wOBA, .349 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
8. Carlos Quentin, Chicago (.305 wOBA, .352 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
9. Carlos Lee, Houston (.243 wOBA, .351 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
10. Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.375 wOBA, .341 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
11. B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.301 wOBA, .334 ZiPs Ros wOBA)

The first half of this tier includes a lot of veterans that were borderline OF1s going into the season. Well, perhaps Dunn has always had the scarlet letter of his batting average to hold him down, and maybe we should have seen Quentin’s low-batting average ways as his true talent level. His line drive rate does not mean we should expect a huge BABIP-fueled bounceback, as talented as he has seemed at times. Lee is heating up, and Rasmus is cooling down, but Lee may end up with the better batting average given their respective long-term histories.

Upside to be Solid OF2s
12. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia (.343 wOBA, .354 ZiPs RoS)
13. Denard Span, Minnesota (.357 wOBA, .344 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
14. Austin Jackson, Detroit (.378 wOBA, .308 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Marlon Byrd, Chicago (.380 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
16. Vernon Wells, Toronto (.398 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Span’s not a bad player and is probably a solid OF2 right now, but a .300 hitter with no power and 30 steals is pretty vanilla. It doesn’t look like it will get any better. A-Jax has cut his strikeout rate from 32.3% in April to 24.4% this month and has settled in with a .302/.348/.395 May after his squeaky clean April. That’s an improvement, but it doesn’t mean he’s not a risk to put up a mediocre batting average going forward. Byrd’s still not walking at all (3.2%) but his ISO survived the move. Adam Jones should take notice, cut his strikeout rate, and up his power to join the party. Wells would be more attractive if it wasn’t likely that we’ve already seen about half of his 2010 home run output already.

Upside to Join the Top
17. Franklin Gutierrez, Mariners (.374 wOBA, .333 ZiPs wOBA)
18. Jay Bruce, Cincinnati (.361 wOBA, .343 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
19. Adam Jones, Baltimore (.290 wOBA, .345 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Now we’re about 36 outfielders in, so we’ve actually covered to OF3 in standard mixed leagues. And to be fair, you’d rather have these guys shuttling in and out of your final outfielder spot because they are streaky young players that are adjusting to the league. Gutierrez could be considered a solid OF2, but it’s not clear that he’s got the power (.148 career ISO, .150 is usually average) or speed (5.3 career speed score, 5 is average) to be relevant in mixed leagues as a second outfielder.

As you probably have heard, the Detroit Tigers pulled off a major deal at the winter meetings. No, I’m not talking about shipping Clay Rapada to the Rangers for a PTBNL.

Detroit picked up RHP Max Scherzer, LHPs Daniel Schlereth and Phil Coke and OF prospect Austin Jackson in a three-team swap, shipping Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson out of town in the process. Let’s take a closer look at Austin Jackson’s value, now that his path to an eventual starting spot in the big leagues is clearer.

An 8th round pick in the 2005 amateur draft, Jackson received an $800,000 signing bonus to forego a scholarship to play basketball at Georgia Tech.

The 6-1, 185 pound righty batter made his full-season debut in 2006, batting .260/.339/.346 in the Low-A South Atlantic League. Jackson worked the count well (10.2 BB%) and swiped 37 bags in 49 attempts (76% success rate). However, rarely put a charge into the ball (.086 ISO), and he punched out in 28.2 percent of his PA.

Following the year, Baseball America named Jackson the 18th best prospect in the Yankees system. BA said that he “confused scouts as both an amateur and now as a pro.” They claimed that Jackson’s speed wasn’t really as advertised. Big SB numbers and hoops background aside, BA rated Austin’s wheels as “fringy,” limiting his range in center field. He also needed to “dramatically improve his breaking-ball recognition.”

Jackson began 2007 back in the Sally League, where he showed modest improvement in the power department. He hit .260/.336/.374 in 266 PA, walking 9.3% of the time and whiffing 25.1%. Jackson’s ISO climbed to a still-modest .115, and he stole 19 bases in 25 tries (76 percent success rate).

Bumped up to the High-A Florida State League in the summer, Jackson emerged as a top talent in New York’s system. His .345/.398/.566 triple-slash in 284 PA was aided by a sky-high .395 BABIP. But Jackson smacked 10 homers in the FSL, more than he had hit in his entire career prior to that point. His ISO spiked to .221. The extra thump came at the expense of some walks (7.9 BB%), but Jackson did pare his K rate to 18.6% while going 13-for-18 in SB attempts (72 percent).

Following his reign of terror with the Tampa Yankees, Jackson ascended to #2 on New York’s prospect list entering 2008. BA changed its tone regarding his defense, saying that Jackson had “developed above-average range in center field.” He was labeled a “future all-star candidate” by Yankees brass.

Jackson spent all of 2008 in the AA Eastern League, where he posted a .285/.354/.419 line in 584 PA. While 2007’s prodigious power display didn’t persist, Jackson managed an adequate .135 ISO. His walk rate perked back up to 9.7%, and he punched out 21.7% of the time. Austin was a more efficient base thief, with 19 SB in 25 tries (76 percent). Baseball America dubbed him the best talent in the Bronx Bombers’ farm system.

In 2009, Jackson patrolled all three outfield spots in the AAA International League, still spending most of his time in the middle pasture. His .300/.354/.405 triple-slash in 557 PA looks like business as usual, but there are some underlying signs that Jackson needs more development time.

The soon-to-be 23 year-old benefitted from an unsustainable .390 BABIP. Jackson is a swift runner (as evidenced by his 24 steals in 28 attempts for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre), and his career BABIP in the minors is .361. He has the skill-set of a high BABIP hitter. But a number creeping up on .400 isn’t going to continue.

Jackson wasn’t a complete hacker at the dish, but his rate of free passes taken dipped to 7.4%, and his K rate rose to 24.4%. He didn’t hit with much authority either, with a .105 ISO. Jackson’s Major League Equivalent (MLE) line was .258/.308/.342, according to Minor League Splits. That equates to a wOBA of about .291.

Long-term, Austin Jackson looks as though he could be an average to slightly above-average everyday center fielder. However, the Tigers should resist the urge to have him patrolling Comerica Park’s spacious outfield come April. Sean Smith’s CHONE projects a .252/.307/.359 line (.296 wOBA). Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS calls for a .245/.296/.338 line (.282 wOBA).

Those in keeper league should keep an eye on Jackson, as he projects to be a league average hitter long-term (Baseball Prospectus’ peak translation for him is .277/.346/.406) with the speed to steal 20 bags. Just don’t count on him come opening day.

The Yankees, Tigers, and Diamondbacks have just finished up a deal that involves Max Scherzer, Edwin Jackson, Curtis Granderson, Ian Kennedy and Austin Jackson.

Yankees Receive: Granderson
Tigers Receive: Scherzer, A. Jackson, Daniel Schlereth, Phil Coke
D’Backs Receive: E. Jackson, Kennedy

Without arguing about who won the deal, let’s analyze how this may change each player’s fantasy value.

Granderson – Grandy moves to a park that is heaven for left handed power hitters. Granderson hit 30 jacks while playing in Detroit, so I am salivating at the chances Grandy will have for dingers in New Yankee Stadium. It is unclear where Grandy fits in the Yankees lineup, but he will likely hit second behind Derek Jeter. While Johnny Damon occupied this spot last year, it is going to take a very cheap deal for him to return to New York next year.

Scherzer – Moving to the AL won’t help Scherzer, nor will the defense behind him. Scherzer is a strikeout machine, and should perform just fine in the AL. The possibility of more run support and added wins will be an added plus for Scherzer going into drafts.

A. Jackson – I doubt he starts the year in the bigs, but I think he ends the year starting for the Tigers. This is what would have likely happened in New York, so Jackson’s value doesn’t take much of a hit.

Schlereth – He has a great strikeout rate, but a terrible walk rate. His ERA will certainly be lower next year due to his BABIP and LOB%. Depending on what happens with Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon, Schlereth could compete for the closers role.

Coke – Coke will likely compete with Schlereth for the closers job, but all of this is just speculation because we aren’t sure what the Tigers plan to do with their bullpen during the remainder of the offseason.

E. Jackson – Jackson’s 13 wins last year now seem to be hard to reach in 2010. Jackson’s new defense is good, but not spectacular. Jackson will continue to be overvalued in fantasy drafts, but this will knock him down a few spots.

Kennedy – It’s unclear where he will start the year. The D’Backs seem to be having an option competition for a rotation spot or two, but don’t be surprised to see Kennedy spend another half-season in the minors waiting for an injury to occur.

Out of all the players dealt, Granderson’s value will rise the most. He looked to be a sleeper candidate going into the year, but this trade will bring him back into the limelight and raise his value to what it should have been in the first place. Those of you who used a keeper spot on Grandy, I salute you.

It’s a long season so it’s obviously too early to get worried in New York, but it’s not easy being a Yankee and expectations are much higher than in some organizations around Major League Baseball. As a result, you know that unestablished players like third baseman Cody Ransom (.083/.153/.125) and center-fielder Brett Gardner (.227/.261/.273) could spend a significant amount of time on the hot seat whenever the club struggles – like it is now.

The fourth-place Yankees have a number of interesting names currently playing just one stop away from the Major Leagues in Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Ransom will eventually be replaced by the rehabbing third-base incumbent Alex Rodriguez. However, if the club gets tired of the sub-.200 average that Ransom is providing in the meantime, Eric Duncan could receive a look. The former No. 1 draft pick is currently hitting .286/.412/.286 in 14 at-bats in Triple-A, although he’s no longer considered a ‘first-round talent.’ Angel Berroa, who received some consideration for the roster spot that Ransom currently owns, is hitting .318 in 22 at-bats.

Gardner is currently struggling a bit in the Big Apple, but top prospect Austin Jackson – who just happens to play center field – is smoking hot in Triple-A. The 22-year-old phenom is currently hitting .500/.538/.591 with six RBI in five games. If we’re nitpicking for negatives, he has just one extra base hit (a triple).

First baseman Mark Teixeira has been limited to just 16 at-bats, thanks to a bad wrist. However, Nick Swisher has stepped up and is currently hitting .450/.542/1.150 in 20 at-bats. He’s doing it all, too. Swisher is evening taking to the mound and out-performing Chien-Ming Wang! If the Yankees need more pop at first base, especially if the Teixeira injury lingers, the club can dip down to Triple-A where Juan Miranda is hitting a tidy .417/.462/.750 with 11 RBI in five games.

On the pitching side, starter Ian Kennedy struck out 11 batters and walked no one in his only start. Reliever David Robertson has appeared in two games and has yet to allow a run in five innings. He’s allowed two hits, one walk and has struck out 10. Mark Melancon has struck out seven batters in 3.2 innings and has yet to allow a hit or a walk.