Archive for Andrew McCutchen

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

We’re changing things up this week in honor of the first Minor Impacts report of the month. Today’s posting will look at a group of players that received a call-up to the Majors, or were involved in a trade, in the past two days.

Gordon Beckham: The White Sox organization has promoted a few rookies to the big league club in recent days (including LHP Wes Whisler, who could be the next Micah Owings, given his college hitting skills). Beckham, though, is the club’s top prospect and was its first-round selection from the 2008 draft. Signed as a shortstop, he showed the ability to handle third base, which encouraged the big league club to promote him to the Majors. Beckham began the 2009 season in double-A and hit .299/.366/.497 in 38 games. He then spent just six games in triple-A (.458 average) before receiving the call to the Majors. His home run power is not fully developed yet – he had just four homers in double-A, but 17 doubles – so Beckham may show below-average power for a third baseman early on in his career. He can also be a little too aggressive at the plate at times, so big-league pitchers may exploit that weakness. Long-term, though, he has solid potential as either a third baseman or a shortstop and could quickly become the face of the franchise and the team’s leader.

Andrew McCutchen: Well it’s about time. I have been calling for this promotion since the beginning of the season when McCutchen was demoted to triple-A for a second straight year. It’s a little surprising, though, that the organization chose to trade off incumbent center-fielder Nate McLouth, rather than shift him (or McCutchen) to right field. Regardless, the rookie is now where he belongs – in the Majors… even if the club somehow managed to weaken itself in the process (In classic Pittsburgh fashion, of course). McCutchen was hitting .303/.361/.493 with four home runs and 10 stolen bases in 49 games. The 22-year-old outfielder does not walk a ton, but he’s also trimmed his strikeout rate to about 11% in 2009. He has the potential to hit .300 with 10-15 home runs and 30-40 steals in a full MLB season. He also plays above-average defense in the outfield.

Tommy Hanson: Hanson is another top prospect who was fully deserving of this opportunity, which probably could (should) have come sooner. The Braves effectively released 300-winner Tom Glavine to make room for the next generation. An argument could be made for Hanson being the best pitching prospect in baseball, but his name is definitely in the Top 3-5 pitching prospects, along with southpaws David Price and Madison Bumgarner. Hanson had a breakout 2008 season and got even better in 2009 while opening the year in triple-A. Last season, the right-hander dominated in high-A ball for seven games (0.90 ERA) before receiving a promotion to double-A. There, Hanson allowed just 70 hits in 98 innings of work and struck out 114 batters. He did, though, struggle with his control to a degree and he walked 41 batters (3.77 BB/9). Hanson then pitched in the Arizona Fall League and dominated some of the best prospects in the game. This year, Hanson had a 1.49 ERA in 11 starts. He allowed 40 hits and 17 walks (2.31 BB/9) in 66.1 innings of work. He also struck out 90 hitters (12.21 K/9). Hanson’s repertoire includes a mid-90s fastball, slider, curve and changeup. With the strides he’s made in the past year, he has the potential to be a No. 1 starter.

The Nate McLouth Loot: In a surprise trade, the Pirates tossed quality outfielder Nate McLouth to the Braves for two good, but not great, prospects: outfielder Gorkys Hernandez, and LHP Jeff Locke, and one OK young MLB-ready pitcher (who was pitching at triple-A): Charlie Morton. Hernandez, who was originally acquired from Detroit (along with Jair Jurrjens) in the Edgar Renteria deal, is a speedy, toolsy outfielder. He was playing in double-A ball with mixed results. His triple-slash line looks pretty good on the batting-average side: .316/.361/.387, but 15 walks in 212 at-bats (6.6 BB%) bites into the on-base percentage. He also has not hit a home run in 2009, after hitting just five in 100 games last year in high-A ball. So, obviously, Hernandez’ game is built around speed. At this point, it does not look like he’ll get on-base enough to be an impact player at the MLB level. He’s also stolen just 10 bases in 18 attempts this season, so he needs to work on becoming a better base runner to take advantage of the speed. He stolen 54 bases in 2007, but that total dropped to 20 in 2008 (although he was caught just four times). Defensively, he’s a very good center fielder. But with McCutchen now in the Majors in center, Hernandez does not profile well at all in a corner outfield spot (and neither does McCutchen).

Locke probably has the greatest potential amongst the three players acquired from the Braves. With that said, though, he’s also still fairly raw as a 2006 second round draft pick out of a New Hampshire high school. The southpaw currently has a 5.52 ERA (but 3.64 FIP) in high-A ball. He’s allowed 47 hits in 45.2 innings of work. Locke is also struggling with his control (5.12 BB/9), although it has been a strong suit of his in the past. He’s struck out 43 batters (8.47 K/9) this year. Locke instantly becomes the best left-handed pitching prospect in the Pirates system with a low-90s fastball, good curve and developing changeup. He’s probably two years away from the Majors and a lot can go wrong with young pitching in that time frame. Locke projects to top out as a No. 3 starter in the Majors.

Morton is the only player headed to Pittsburgh that has any MLB experience. He received a desperation call to the Majors in 2008 and was hit around. He posted a 6.15 ERA and allowed 80 hits with 41 walks in 74.2 innings of work. In 2009, Morton had obviously slid down the Braves’ depth chart as he was passed over for a MLB promotion on a few occasions despite posting solid numbers. The right-hander had a 2.51 ERA and had allowed 52 hits in 64.2 innings of work. His rates were solid at 2.23 BB/9 and 7.65 K/9. Despite being a third-round pick out of a New Jersey high school in 2002, Morton has never been considered amongst the Braves’ top prospects. His fastball averages out around 90 mph and he also has a good breaking ball and a changeup that has improved over the years. He could very well end up in the Pirates’ rotation within a month, given the current state of affairs.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

Andrew McCutchen: When the Pirates organization is done trying to save money and decides to promote Andrew McCutchen, current right-fielder Brandon Moss should be rightfully shifted back to the fourth outfielder role. For the second straight year in triple-A, McCutchen is showing the ability to play good defense, steal bases and hit for average. He currently has a triple-slash line of .291/.354/.473 with nine steals in 41 games. He’s also striking out just 10% of the time, which is excellent news for a top-of-the-order player. The club could use his spark.

Justin Turner: With the promotions of Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold and Jason Berken, Baltimore has been turning to its minor league system as of late to infuse some talent into the roster in what is turning into another murky year in the AL East standings. Infielder Justin Turner, 24, has been hitting very well recently in triple-A and he could eventually take the place of disappointing utility player Robert Andino. Turner, who was acquired from Cincinnati this past off-season in the Ramon Hernandez trade, is hitting .405 in his last 10 games and .356 in May.

Wes Roemer: A big, strong right-handed pitcher, Wes Roemer has never posted flashy numbers but his base statistics have been respectable this season. Recently promoted to double-A, the former supplemental first round pick is having a lot of luck with putting the ball in play with a new emphasis on sinking the ball. He’s striking out just over five batters per nine innings but he doesn’t walk many hitters and he has yet to allow a home run in 46.2 innings this season after struggling with the long ball in 2008. Arizona could use the pitching help, so Roemer could get a look before too long, even if it’s in the bullpen.

Matt Maloney: Like Roemer, Matt Maloney is having success in 2009 despite non-sexy numbers. The 25-year-old southpaw has now spent parts of three seasons in triple-A but has yet to receive a call-up to the Majors because of the Reds’ pitching depth. This season, Maloney has walked just seven batters in more than 50 innings of work and he’s struck out 41 (7.19 K/9) so he deserves a look in the near future. With a repertoire that includes a fastball that works in the high 80s (and tops out around 91-92), as well as a plus changeup and two average breaking balls, Maloney has more than enough to survive as a solid No. 4 starter in the National League.

George Kontos: Yet another pitcher who succeeds with modest stuff, George Kontos gets lost in the Yankees system amongst some of the bigger-named prospects (with stronger arms). This right-hander, though, strikes out a healthy number of batters (8.1 k/9 career) despite working in the high 80s and low 90s. His best pitch is a slider, although he also has a curveball and changeup. Combined between double-A and triple-A this season, Kontos has allowed 36 hits and struck out 42 batters in 42.1 innings of work. Once he improves his control (19 walks), he could get a look in the bullpen with all the movement being made in the big-league bullpen this season.

Vince Mazzaro: The Oakland Athletics organization has leaned heavily on its young pitching with mixed results in 2009. The club, though, has yet to take a look at Vince Mazzaro at the Major League level. The sinker-slider pitcher is having a nice season in triple-A at the age of 22. In 50.2 innings, the right-hander has allowed just 38 hits and 16 walks (2.84 BB/9). He’s also seen just two balls leave the yard on a fly in a good hitters’ league, thanks to a 59% ground ball rate.

Outfielder Andrew McCutchen has been on the prospect map ever since high school – when he was selected in the first round by Pittsburgh in 2005. The Florida native has been one of the Pirates’ top offensive prospects since signing his first pro contract and he spent all of 2008 in Triple-A at the age of 21.

McCutchen was originally supposed to develop into a five-tool player, but his power has not developed as planned (.115 ISO in 2008), although he did steal 34 bases in 53 attempts last season. Overall, he hit .283/.372/.398 in 512 at-bats. McCutchen also posted rates of 11.7 BB%, which was higher than his career average, and 17.0 K%. His strikeout rates have lowered from where they sat earlier in his career, which shows he’s making adjustments and coming to grips with the type of player that he is (ie. Not a power hitter). Defensively, McCutchen is an above-average fielder, but his arm is just average for center field.

The Pirates organization has slowly gathered together a very impressive young outfield that will eventually include McCutchen, Jose Tabata (obtained from the Yankees in the Xavier Nady deal), and Brandon Moss (obtained from the Red Sox in the Jason Bay trade). Toss in the already-established Nate McLouth and the powerful Steve Pearce (who could see time at first base as well) and you have five players with bright futures.

Word out of Pittsburgh is that the club plans to have McCutchen begin the season in Triple-A again, but he has also received the most at-bats of any player this spring – although he is just 1-for-13 with seven strikeouts and may be pressing. Pearce, McLouth and Moss appear to have the inside tracks on starting jobs. The club also has veteran utility player Eric Hinske on hand, as well as the speedy Nyjer Morgan. Tabata has been slowed by injuries this spring and should also be in Triple-A to begin 2009.

McCutchen likely won’t be down for long and could very well push Pearce or Moss to a platoon or part-time role by the All-Star break. If McCutchen gets half a season at the Major League level, expect a batting average of around .270 and 10-15 stolen bases. He won’t be a star immediately, but he could definitely help Fantasy owners in the second half of the season who are in need of cheap steals. McCutchen is a great choice for keeper leagues too.

Andrew McCutchen is a top prospect. Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein rated him as a five-star prospect, second in the Pirates system to Pedro Alvarez. Similarly, Baseball America ranked him as the Pirates best prospect heading into the 2008 season. McCutchen spent 2008 at triple-A, and may be poised for a call up to the majors. Let’s look at what to expect from him from a fantasy perspective.

McCutchen was only 21 years old in 2008, but played the entire year at triple-A. Therefore, his line of .283/.372/.398 is actually a lot more impressive than it looks. Age is a crucially important factor in determining a prospect’s status, and any 21-year-old who can simply hold his own in triple-A is well ahead of the game. Although McCutchen didn’t show much power, a .372 OBP is quite a feat for someone so young.

However, McCutchen had an underwhelming line in double-A in 2007 as well, hitting .258/.327/.383. Again, he was only 20 at the time, so his line is a lot more impressive than it looks. Still, that’s two straight underwhelming seasons – so why is he even worth writing about?

Three reasons: first of all, McCutchen is probably a lot better than his lines from 2007 and 2008 showed; secondly, he is very likely to get called to the majors in 2009; finally, he could contribute to your fantasy team right away.

I’ve covered the idea that McCutchen is better than his lines showed – scouts love him, and he was so young for his level that simply being decent is quite an achievement. Furthermore, he has shown consistent improvement in both his walk rate and strikeout rate since 2006 – his walk rate has risen every year (even though he’s played against tougher competition), and his strikeout rate has fallen. Again, this is doubly impressive considering that McCutchen has moved up a level each year and is still so young.

Furthermore, the Pirates have an opening in center field. Yes, I know that Nate McLouth played there last season, hit quite well and even won a Gold Glove. However, simply put, McLouth is not even an average defensive center fielder – he was a whopping 40 plays below average (last among qualified “center fielders”), according to John Dewan’s numbers. Even if he’s not quite that bad in center, McLouth should hit enough to man a corner, and McCutchen is supposedly an above-average defender. Center field is McCutchen’s for the taking, and he should grab it some point in 2009.

Finally, McCutchen is an excellent long-term prospect, and many believe that he will develop power to complement his speed, defense, and improving plate discipline. However, his career slugging percentage in the minors is .414, and he’s hit a total of 39 homers in 462 career games. Therefore, it’s fair to surmise that while power may come in the future, he’s probably not going to hit 25 homers at the major league level in 2009.

However, McCutchen may be able to help you in the steals department. He stole 34 bases in 135 games in 2008, and even though he was caught 18 times, he’s only been caught 25% of the time he’s attempted a steal in the minors. In other words, McCutchen is probably an efficient enough base stealer that the Pirates won’t hesitate to turn him loose on the base paths.

Furthermore, McCutchen’s improving strikeout- and walk-rates suggest that he may be able to maintain a respectable batting average (and OBP) in the majors. The BA would help you for obvious reasons, but the OBP will help him get more opportunities to steal bases (and score runs).

McCutchen is unlikely to break camp with the team, and I’d guess that the Pirates are savvy enough (and far enough out of contention) so as to wait until late May or early June to bring McCutchen to the majors, thereby preventing him from attaining Super Two status in three years. He’s probably not going to make enough of an impact to make him draft-worthy in shallow mixed leagues (although those of you who play in leagues like this may want to snatch him up if/when he does get the call to the majors). However, anyone in deeper mixed leagues or NL Only leagues may want to stash him on your bench, as McCutchen could be an excellent source of steals when he finally gets called to the big leagues.

And for those of you in keeper leagues, there are few better long-term prospects than Andrew McCutchen.