Pitching, pitching, pitching! That’s the focus of today’s Roto Riteup.
– We talked a little bit about the closer situation in Boston earlier this week, but now things have gotten more complicated. Andrew Bailey is going to have surgery on his thumb, and there’s a good chance he now misses half the season or more. Whoever is name his replacement will have solid value throughout the season, whether it be Mark Melancon or Alfredo Aceves.
The Boston Red Sox picked up a Jonathan Papelbon replacement on Wednesday, acquiring Andrew Bailey (and Ryan Sweeney) from the Oakland A’s for Josh Reddick and prospects Raul Alcantara and Miles Head. The five-player swap has plenty of fantasy implications for both Boston and Oakland, so let’s briefly break down the big storylines.
Before I begin, please allow me to congratulate both Craig Kimbrel and Jeremy Hellickson for winning their respective league’s 2011 Rookie of the Year awards. It was the first time since 1981 when Dave Righetti (NYY- AL) and Fernando Valenzuela (LAD- NL) won that each league’s award went to a pitcher in the same season. Both seemed deserving of such esteemed honors, although one brings on a greater debate than the other. Kimbrel, with a record 46 saves by a rookie, finished with a 2.10 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an eye-popping 127 strikeouts in 77 innings of work. Hellickson, starter of 29 games and winner of 13, finished the season with a 2.95 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and notched 117 Ks in a rookie-leading 189 innings. I could talk about peripherals and who was more deserving and what not, but that’s neither here nor there right now. What is important is how winning this award affects the value of each player in 2012 fantasy baseball drafts. All too often, players are drafted based on name and hype and winning the Rookie of the Year award certainly helps build both. So before you go breaking the bank to acquire this year’s crop, allow me to point out that you should probably keep your expectations low.
As much joy as the game of fantasy baseball brings to most of us, it can also bring an enormous amount of frustration and anxiety. They say you shouldn’t keep that sort of stuff bottled up inside you, unless, of course, you enjoy the taste of bile and all the other stomach acids that a bleeding ulcer provides. You need to get it out. But what are you going to do, bitch to your girlfriend? Try to gain sympathy from your fellow owners? Doubtful. Her level of care is reciprocal to your level of interest in her best friend’s latest relationship disaster and deep down, your fellow owners are wishing this kind of stuff on you. Read the rest of this entry »
So all Andrew Bailey has is a forearm strain and Brad Lidge is merely sitting with a sore right biceps tendon. If you’ve already drafted and own either guy, it’s time to play it safe, grab Brian Fuentes and Jose Contreras, maybe even Grant Balfour and Ryan Madson, and consider the bullet dodged….for now. But if you haven’t drafted yet, then perhaps it’s time for a little strategy session and see if you can turn this potential closer catastrophe to your favor. Read the rest of this entry »
During the Keeper Conundrum series, I got some nice suggestions in the comments. Today, I finish of the series by continuing to look at some of your ideas.
Ervin Santana
While he still hasn’t lived up to his 2008 break out, and likely never will, Santana has had a solid fantasy season. But, his periperals weren’t that far off from last season’s, leaving him with yet another regression year.
Crude 2011 Projection: 205 IP, 4.00 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I can guarantee you didn’t pay anything for him, so keep him on your roster next season.
Edwin Jackson
The addition of cutter upon arriving to Chicago made Jackson a second-half stud. Even though he’s been around the block, he’ll still only be 27 next year. If Jackson can continue his second-half surge, he’ll be one of the top pitchers in all of fantasy baseball next year.
Crude 2011 Projection: 210 IP, 3.70 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He’s going to be solid next year, and I want a piece of that action.
Brian Matusz
Matusz has always been in my doghouse, thanks to his extreme fly ball tendencies. But, he did pitch extremely well in the last two months of the year, with xFIP’s around 4.00. I’m hoping he can take a step in the right direction next year, but I’m not going to bet much on it.
Crude 2011 Projection: 190 IP, 4.00 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He’s very young, and pretty raw, and I want to see if he can keep performing at the level he showed late this year.
Andrew Bailey
His injury throws his status up in the air, but he did well upon his return. We only have a 132 inning sample, so we don’t know how high his BABIP should really be.
Crude 2011 Projection: 55 IP, 2.25 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. He’s probably in line for some progression, and we don’t know if the A’s are going to be any good next year.
Thanks for all the suggestions this week, hope this helped you in some way.
A little turmoil today leads to two easy waiver wire pickups. Run don’t walk!
Michael Wuertz, Athletics (20% owned)
Looks like Andrew Bailey is going to Dr. James Andrews and is done for the year. That sounds terrible because it is. Well, the ‘done for the year’ part is not so terrible considering there are two weeks left, but the ‘Dr. James Andrews’ part is pretty bad. Wuertz has been good but not great this year – the strikeouts are still there (9.31 per nine), but he lost all the gains he made last year with his control. His walk rate (4.6 BB/9) is too close to his career level (4.05 BB/9) to think that this is really fluky. Instead, it looks like last year’s walk rate (2.63 BB/9) is the outlier. It’s a shame, but he has the punch to close, at least against right-handed lineups (3.29 career FIP against righties). His 4.21 FIP against lefties probably means that Craig Breslow will steal a save or two (3.43 FIP against lefties career). Together, that’s a decent closer, although a long-term injury to Bailey would have the Athletics hoping that Wuertz can corral the slider better next year. He does throw the pitch a whopping 65% of the time.
Mike Aviles, Royals (22% owned)
Well, maybe you don’t have to run to get Mike Aviles in your lineup. But Chris Getz did get shut down after experiencing renewed dizziness after working out today. He’s probably done for the year, given how long other concussion victims have been out this year. Aviles didn’t quite take the season by storm, as his ISO (.093) never got back to his career levels (.118). That’s sort of important, considering he doesn’t walk (4.4% career), and the only other offensive skill he offers is “not striking out” (11.2% this year, 13.8% career, average usually around 20%). In the last thirty days, however, Aviles has hit over .300 with power and speed and has been more than a decent middle infield stopgap. He’s not a great player, and while he has more power than Getz, the fact that Getz walks more, has more speed, and is a better defender will probably win out long term.
– Huston Street will be starting the year on the DL, which isn’t a good sign for those of you who decided to select him as a keeper. He had problems with tightness in his shoulder over the past month, and had an MRI done yesterday. Street hasn’t had shoulder problems in the past, so this isn’t too much of a concern. Still, a closer with arm troubles is hard to judge, because missing a few weeks could mean losing their job. I doubt Street will lose his gig, but keep an eye on him.
– The big ball of power known as Mat Gamel has had a hard time recovering from a sore shoulder. Gamel entered spring hoping to win the third base job, but now I’d bet that Casey McGehee will start the year with the job. McGehee may not hit .300 again, but 15 homers and a .275 average are reasonable expectations. McGehee is eligible at second and third base, and is currently the 210th player off the board according to Mock Draft Central.
– A’s closer Andrew Bailey is going to sit out for a couple days due to elbow soreness. Bailey’s rookie campaign was helped by a .234 BABIP against, but his strong strikeout and walk numbers should translate over to 2010.
– Dustin McGowan pitched two innings in a simulated game this week, and the Jays still don’t have a timetable for his return. McGowan had a good 2007 and a decent 2008, but since his progress has been slow he is no longer draftable even in the deepest of leagues with a DL spot.
– Placido Polanco suffered a sprained right knee earlier in the week, and he hopes to return to action tomorrow.
– Rick Ankiel’s ankle is starting to become a legitimate concern for the Royals, and he isn’t likely to play until Sunday, at the earliest.