Archive for Alex Rodriguez

As you well know by now, some dutiful readers of RotoGraphs took it upon themselves to virtually duke it out in an online mock draft, putting to test what we have repeatedly analyzed in the past several weeks — that is, just exactly where should we expect some of our favorite players to be taken?

There is of course a great deal of risk in relying solely on one source for your average draft positions, and while the draft was conducted in Mock Draft Central, having some well informed individuals making the selections instead of what could be third graders and well trained monkeys for all we know, provides us with a nice window for analysis.

For today, third base will be under the microscope.

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Yesterday I covered the bottom half of the list here, numbers 10 through 6.  Some solid speculation on some people’s part in the comments section as to who made the top five, so without further ado…

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To recap the third base keeper series, we had Jose Bautista and Evan Longoria comprising the first tier, which probably could have been just one player, but nobody likes to attend the party stag. The second tier was far more crowded with Brett Lawrie, Pablo Sandoval, Ryan Zimmerman, Adrian Beltre, David Wright, Aramis Ramirez, and Kevin Youkilis.

Now, perhaps Alex Rodriguez leading off the third tier is a little unfair, but we’re talking keepers here. While he’ll likely occupy a space in the second tier for fantasy drafts, his being relatively old (36) and fragile (hasn’t played a full season in four years) makes him a risky play — and considering most owners have him in high rounds or own him for big money, keeping him is may be unwise. Should you be in a very deep league and the remaining options are just downright putrid, perhaps paying the premium for his services makes some sense. If Rodriguez remains healthy all year and gives you 650 plate appearances, you can practically guarantee yourself 25 home runs and 100 RBI. But this is the fourth season of decline relative to wOBA and should that decline remain or continue either because of injury or ineffectiveness, he’s not worth the top shelf price tag.

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We interrupt the 2012 Catcher Keeper Rankings to answer a question from one of our readers, Buck Turgidson, who asked,  “Will Jesus Montero be eligible at catcher to start next season?

Plenty of people are wondering whether or not they will get to use the New York Yankees hitting phenom at the position he played in the minor leagues or if his late season call-up that saw him DH for 14 games and work behind the plate for just 3 will lock him in as a designated hitter.  For the most part, those using ESPN and Yahoo as their fantasy site will be forced to begin the season with Montero as a DH and have to wait until he logs enough games behind the dish to qualify.  Those using other sites, such as CBS Sports, may have a little more flexibility depending on their Commissioner capabilities.  Personally, I think ESPN and Yahoo need to loosen the reins a little and allow for exceptions such as this.  I don’t see anything wrong with Montero beginning the season as a catcher and even set up something specific in the rules for just such an example.

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There’s a few minor injury notes I’d like to get to, so let’s group them and put them in one place:

– Cole Hamels will miss a start thanks to inflammation in his shoulder. He still could end up on the DL if things don’t improve, but the good news is that this is nothing too serious. While missing a couple of Hamels’ starts isn’t that big of a deal for the Phillies thanks to their division lead, it could be huge for fantasy owners, especially in head-to-head leagues.

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America learned yesterday that Yankees’ third baseman Alex Rodriguez has a small tear in his right meniscus. A-Rod has two options regarding his injury: he can choose to play through it, or he could opt for surgery that would land him on the DL for about a month’s time, allowing him to come back for the playoff run. Rodriguez has yet to make his decision, instead seeking a second opinion this afternoon.

If A-Rod opts for surgery, odds are Eduardo Nunez is going to be the first in line for playing time at the hot corner in New York. Nunez stepped in for Derek Jeter after The Captain landed on the DL, and he played relatively well. We only have a little more than 180 plate appearances to judge Nunez with, but his skill set appears pretty evident within that small sample.

Nunez, 24, has done a great job of limiting strikeouts in his major league career, allowing him to have a solid batting average despite lower BABIPs. Nunez also has some speed on the basepaths, stealing ten bags in fourteen tries this season, but he is no burner who is going to win you the steals category. All in all, Nunez will probably give you a .275 average with a handful of steals if A-Rod misses a month, along with good runs scored and RBIs thanks to the Yankees lineup. Even if you have a solid third baseman, Nunez is eligible at SS, so he’s not just a one trick pony.

If A-Rod does decide to play through his injury, Nunez will still have some value for certain owners in deep leagues. We all know third base has been a pretty poor position the last couple of years, so options on the waiver wire tend to be few and far between. If A-Rod is playing hurt, then owners will likely want a solid backup option in case he breaks down, or for when he is forced to take a day off. Nunez will likely play if A-Rod breaks down or gets a day off, and could even see time if the Yankees choose to rotate A-Rod through the DH slot once or twice a week to limit his discomfort, and you could slot Nunez into your shortstop spot on those days if you were so inclined.

Blame it on the injuries.  Blame it on the fact that the once lush and dense forest of talent to be found at third base is thinning out faster than a middle aged guy’s hairline.  Blame it on Rio or the bellboy, I don’t really care.  The fact of the matter is, the position is like a fantasy nightmare that picks right back up where you left off no matter how many times you wake yourself up and try to calmly fall back asleep.  And it just keeps getting scarier each time. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s hard to believe we’re coming up on the first month of the season, and even a little harder to believe some of the surprises in the performances of the boys at the hot corner. In general, this whole group has been pretty disappointing, but much of that has to do with injury and rotten luck. Some have been great, some have been train-wreck-awful, and we have several new names to add via eligibility updates.  And where a rising tide may float all boats, a collapsing building can produce new views – and thus, the tiers have been shaken up quite a bit from the original ranking.

There are so many changes to the original rankings, including the size and number of tiers, that I’m not going to note an up or down for every player that has moved. Rather, I’ll indicate any notable ascent or descent and give a little rationale thereafter.

Tier 1
Evan Longoria
David Wright
Ryan Zimmerman
Alex Rodriguez

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In life, they say that with age comes wisdom.  Well, in fantasy baseball, they say that with age comes a decline in numbers and that it’s time to start looking elsewhere for a younger option with much more upside.   While there’s some decent young talent out there at third, there are also plenty of seniors that are still hanging on that you may want to avoid.  Just to mention a few… Read the rest of this entry »

Remember the days when third base used to be one of the deepest positions and loaded with talent?  Well, not anymore and not for the last few seasons either.  It’s at the point where you need to start seriously considering a significant investment in one of the top 5 guys out there or be doomed to sit with mediocrity at a position once known for it’s outstanding power production. Read the rest of this entry »