As I write this, Mike Trout is sporting a .556 batting average in Spring Training. I also had the pleasure of drafting him first overall in my NFBC Draft Champions league. To celebrate his feat and my luck, I am shooting for at least five of nine of the following bold predictions.
Here goes (extra ballsy right from the start):
In the leagues I run that have inexperienced and/or casual team owners, I always use the standard 5×5 roto categories because I feel that it would give me and the other experienced players an advantage. I know that the casual players in my leagues are using the rankings provided by the website on which we’re drafting or some other set of rankings from a major industry source. And almost all of those rankings are based on standard categories. If I replaced, for example, home runs with slugging percentage, I would be able to identify the players whose valuation or ranking would change with the different category. But the noobs would be using rankings made with home runs in mind.
I polled my Twitter followers to find out the most common uses of non-standard categories so that I could determine the players whose valuation/ranking changed the most when non-standard categories are used. The most common answers were OBP replacing batting average (which I covered here), slugging percentage replacing home runs, and OPS being added as a sixth category to the standard five hitter categories. Sorry if your league has a different non-traditional format.
Below are charts showing the biggest changes in SLG and OPS leagues. For an explanation of the methodology used, check out the OBP piece I just linked to. And if you’d like to see how all 242 hitters that I have projected are affected by SLG replacing HR or OPS being a sixth category, you can find the SLG list here and the OPS list here.
First up, guys who get a bump when slugging percentage replaces home runs.
Miguel Cabrera and Paul Goldschmidt are even more valuable in slugging percentage leagues, and they close the gap between them and Trout in auction leagues. Joey Votto shows up on this list just as he did in my OBP post. He’s obviously excellent, but the standard categories aren’t the best measure of his excellence.
Unsurprisingly, we see a few young first basemen here who haven’t reached the ‘power potential’ some thought they might. But really they just haven’t put up big home run totals. Freddie Freeman and Eric Hosmer may never settle in as 30+ HR regulars or even 25-30 HR regulars, but if you play in a slugging percentage league, their power plays. And Brandon Belt gets the biggest boost by switching to SLG. It’s possible his ballpark has something to do with it, but he’s very much in the Freeman/Homser mold. The only non-1B/DH player on this list is Yadier Molina who was 4th in the league in doubles last year.
Now the guys who you would prefer in a home run league. Read the rest of this entry »
After a year in which one-time Brewers shortstop-of-the-future and current Royals man-up-the-middle, Alcides Escobar, batted .293 with a .331 on-base percentage and 35 stolen bases, expectations were running awfully high in fantasy circles. His lack of power was dismissed in favor of the potential for more speed and there seemed to be little concern over the fact that his walk rate stayed at its woeful 4.2-percent while he saw a minor spike in strikeouts. Some pointed to his inflated .344 BABIP but his supporters pointed to his minor league batted ball data and his above-average contact rates. But when Escobar finished the season with a dismal .234/.259/.300 slash line and swiped just 22 bags, the supporters ducked for cover as the naysayers (cue obligatory comment from John Elway) reveled in the glory of being right. Read the rest of this entry »
The Kansas City Royals have been one of the most enigmatic teams in the last few years. Not because they’re small market or because they’ve been a perennial punching bag for the rest of the American League, but because expectations have been on the rise for some time now and they consistently fail to deliver. Once the worst farm system in baseball, the Royals were suddenly flush with all of this great, young talent. We saw the debuts of players like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas and watched as they added key pieces like Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar. They hadn’t quite put it all together over the last two seasons, but this year, with a revamped rotation, the Royals became darlings in the American League and some even thought they could compete for a wild card this year. But while James Shields and Jeremy Guthrie did their part early on, the hitters failed miserably. The young studs were a disaster and after a modest 14-10 April, things spun out of control as the Royals went 8-20 in May and opened June 1-2. Manager Ned Yost was at a loss. He shuffled the lineup dozens of times without success. They fired their hitting coach and replaced him with the legendary George Brett, hoping that some Royals royalty would jump start the offense. But instead, it was the nerds who got things going for the Royals. Yost put the lineup decision into the hands of the sabermetric boys and the next thing we knew, Kansas City was on a six-game winning streak. Read the rest of this entry »
It was supposed to be a breakout season for Lorenzo Cain, the 26-year old centerfielder acquired by the Royals as part of the return package for Zack Greinke. He was basically told that the centerfield job was his to lose during spring training and it was actually a little exciting watching him run away with it as he hit .371 with five home runs, 11 doubles, and five stolen bases. Not to mention, a 12.9% walk rate, something the Royals desperately hoped he would retain from his minor league numbers. He was slated to bat second in the order and was primed to be a serious fantasy asset this year.
But then the injury bug swooped in and bit poor Lorenzo in the groin after he went crashing into the wall during the first week of the season. He landed on the disabled list and then, to make matters worse, ended up tearing his hip flexor during his rehab stint which put him on the shelf for the rest of the first half. Some fantasy owners have been able to stash him on their DL this whole time, while others were just forced to cut bait and send him back to the player pool. Well, now as the second half is about to begin, you have your chance to run with Cain as he is back and ready to finish what he started.
If you’re looking for some outfield help and he’s out there on your waiver wire, Cain is definitely worth a look. The Royals will likely start him off easy and keep him hitting out of the seven or eight-hole to start — keep the pressure off and let him do his thing. He’s got a little bit of pop in his bat and has good speed on the bases, so if he starts off strongly, there’s a good chance that Ned Yost starts to test him out in the two-hole, depending on the performance of Alcides Escobar. Obviously a move up in the order would boost his value, but baby steps are needed here. He appeared to be getting better during his rehab outing as he went from batting .208 at Double-A Northwest Arkansas for the first half of the session to .321 for Triple-A Omaha in the second. He dropped his strikeout rate, started taking some walks, and was just more productive overall. But while that is definitely encouraging, there’s no need to rush him with lofty expectations.
One caveat here with regard to the speed game which could be a little discouraging. Not only did Cain miss a few games towards the end of his rehab stint with sore legs, but he also never attempted a stolen base at any point. Obviously, early on in the rehab you don’t want to push it, but you would have liked to have seen him at least attempt a stolen base at some point — see what kind of a jump he gets, what kind of burst of speed he’s got right now, but nothing. It’s not certain if he was being tentative or if the coaches and trainers were just being cautious.
Now Cain’s return has more of an impact than just saying goodbye to Jarrod Dyson until September. His return also means that the promotion of Wil Myers, something everyone has been clamoring for, is on hold indefinitely. The team has already said that they will not bring Myers up unless he has the opportunity to play every day. With Cain taking over centerfield, Alex Gordon and Jeff Francoeur handling the corners and Jason Bourgeois holding down the fourth outfielder responsibilities, there’s just no room for Myers to play regularly, regardless of how well he is hitting in Omaha. Fantasy owners that have Myers stashed will simply have to wait patiently and hope that the team can find a way to pawn off Francoeur. The market for him right now is not strong, but perhaps when we’re a little closer to the trade deadline, some contending team will be looking for a right-handed bat to come off the bench. For now though, he will continue to patrol right field.
The Royals situation is definitely worth watching over the next month to see if they can recapture that spark we saw back in spring training. If they can all click as they did then you could find yourself with some strong fantasy performers for your second half run. If they don’t, then all you Myers owners will finally reap the benefits of stashing him away as the Royals would then become sellers on the market. Either way, there should be a good amount of second-half fantasy help coming out of Kansas City this year.
As we wrap up the month of April it’s time to go back to your waiver wire and sift through some of the names of players that have been dropped over the last few weeks. Usually they are players who were taken in the later rounds of your draft and, with an early season slow start, have been discarded by their owners and forgotten on the free agent scrap heap. However, a number of those players are now starting to turn things around and could be timely adds to your roster, whether it’s for a starting position or even just quality depth. Here are a pair of just such examples and, even better, at thin positions.
There are a number of position battles that have caught people’s attention this spring and with it getting down to crunch time for fantasy baseball drafts, it’s important to know how things are going to play out. One spot, in particular that has drawn plenty of interest is the battle for second base in Kansas City. Originally, the favorite was youngster Johnny Giavotella, but with both Chris Getz and (gulp!) Yuniesky Betancourt having decent springs, things are getting a little interesting.
Since we’re over halfway through the fantasy season, most owners have a pretty good idea what categories they can make a push for points in during these next couple of months. With that in mind, here are a few players that can help you in specific categories if you give them the chance.
Jeff Keppinger: Batting Average
One of the few trade chips the Astros have at their disposal, Keppinger has hit better than the magical .300 mark this year after hitting .288 last season. Keppinger’s ability to make contact is absolutely ridiculous at the moment, as he is one of three players with at least 150 plate appearances to post a SwStr% below 2%. I don’t know if he’ll be able to hit .300 all season long, but odds are he’ll hit at least .285 for your team.
Today’s look at the Waiver Wire is young and quick, but ultimately a little disappointing.
Earlier today, Erik rolled out our Shortstop rankings and tiers. For kicks we should reveal the individual lists we used for our combined rankings as the variability is remarkable, and it demonstrates just how fluid this position is. To be sure, shortstop is my biggest conundrum headed into 2011 as it seems there isn’t a tremendous amount that differentiates the majority of these guys after you get out of the second tier. So here’s to trying to mine some risers from the list that might provide a little something added to a middling or low draft pick at what is shaping up to be an awfully uninspiring inventory at the 6.