As is the goal in real life, the goal in daily fantasy with pitchers is to avoid giving up hits, walks and runs while pitching deep into the game and striking out a lot of batters. But which of those objectives helps a pitcher earn the most fantasy points per game in Draftstreet’s daily salary cap format? Read the rest of this entry »
The Pittsburgh Pirates squeezed about as much value out of A.J. Burnett, James McDonald, Kevin Correia, and Jeff Karstens as possible in 2012, yet their team ERA- was still worse than league average. Correia is out, and Francisco Liriano is in, and now of course they get Wandy Rodriguez for a full season. So things look kinda alright for Pirates fans. But from a fantasy perspective, there are a couple opportunities, a couple landmines, and maybe a position battle still to be watched.
A.J. Burnett is the ostensible leader of this crew after his impressive re-emergence as a good fantasy option after the debacle in New York. His strikeout rate crept back up over 21%, the first time in three years, and his walk rate was just about the best it has been in his career at a fairly stingy 7.3%. In standard 5×5 leagues, Burnett was really quite valuable – he had a decent ERA (3.51), he won games (16), and he had a respectable WHIP (1.24).
Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 20.
Chad Billingsley – Consistency has been hard to come by for Billingsley in 2011. Yes, he’s had some stretches where he’s run off multiple wins in a row, but those times were not backed with strong pitching. And here recently it’s been hot and cold for the Dodger righty. The one constant seemingly for Billingsley has been poor results on the road. In his last seven road starts, he’s given up 4, 4, 6, 0, 3, 5 and 3 ER over 45 IP for a 5.00 ERA. For the season he has a 5.53 road ERA, so it’s not like these last seven are out of character for him. Billingsley has a 6.59 K/9 in road games and allows more HR on the road. This week he squares off at MIL and at COL, two really good HR parks. Give him the week off if you can.
A.J. Burnett – It has been over six weeks since Burnett notched his last win and he has not been particularly impressive in defeat, either, with a 6.00 ERA in his last seven starts. One of the big problems in that stretch is that he has allowed 8 HR in 42 IP. The good news for Burnett this week is that he squares off against KC and MIN, two of the worst teams in the league in hitting HR. He’s also struggled with his command recently and the Twins have the fewest walks of any AL team. Both of these starts are on the road, which likely works in his favor as the Bronx faithful are not overly fond of Burnett at the moment. Put him in your lineup this week.
Gio Gonzalez – In his last four starts, Gonzalez is 0-4 with an 8.44 ERA. In that span, he has a 2.109 WHIP. Gonzalez’ BB/9 has definitely been a problem (6.3) but no one is going to succeed with the .433 BABIP that Gonzalez has during that stretch. So, is there an injury or is it a slump? Gonzalez also has a 9.7 K/9 in that stretch and his 10.0 SwStr% is right at his 9.7 percent mark for the season. It does not seem like an injury and there is no discussion of any health problems. He has two home starts this week and Gonzalez is 7-2 with a 2.21 ERA at the Coliseum. Also his home FIP is 1.07 beneath his road FIP. Keep Gonzalez active this week despite his recent horrible pitching.
Mike Leake – A 3.0 K/BB ratio and five Quality Starts in his last five games have not translated into a great record for Leake, who is 2-3 in that span. He has a nifty 2.53 ERA in his last 32 IP and a normal .316 BABIP. This week he squares off against the slumping Pirates (3-13 in their last 16 games) and Nationals (7-11). Leake is pitching well and he has favorable matchups, so make sure he is active this week.
Cory Luebke – A high pitch count kept Luebke to five innings in his last outing but that was hardly a surprise, as he notched 4 BB and 8 Ks. The walks were out of character but the strikeouts are what fantasy owners have come to expect from the converted reliever. Since moving into the rotation on June 26th, Luebke has a 9.3 K/9. His 2.98 ERA as a SP exactly matches his xFIP. Luebke is stretched out as a SP and has thrown between 100-110 pitches in each of his last seven outings. He has struggled somewhat at home (3.42 xFIP) but he faces two teams from the East Coast and there’s no reason not to have him in your lineup this week.
Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 20 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.
Lee, Gallardo, Lester, T. Hudson, Ogando, Jimenez, Bumgarner, Hanson, Holland, A. Sanchez, Pineda, Harang, Liriano, Porcello, Wolf, J. Sanchez, Lilly, Dickey, Vazquez, Collmenter, McDonald, Westbrook, Davis, Blackburn, Alvarez, Moscoso, Hunter, Mills, Duffy, Chatwood, Paulino, G. Richards, Detwiler, Lopez, Sosa.
Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.
Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 18 pitchers and how they fared.
Danks – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 6.00 ERA, 1.667 WHIP, 6 IP, 4 ER
Lackey – Advised to sit. W, 10 Ks, 5.68 ERA, 1.263 WHIP, 12.2 IP, 8 ER
Peavy – Advised to sit. W, 10 Ks, 1.80 ERA, 0.800 WHIP, 15 IP, 3 ER
E. Santana – Advised to start. 2 W, 14 Ks, 1.04 ERA, 1.039 WHIP, 17.1 IP, 2 ER
Vazquez – Advised to start. 8 Ks, 1.39 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 13 IP, 2 ER
Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 4.
A.J. Burnett – Despite being in the majors since 1999, Burnett has not thrown more than 39 games to any one catcher. He has 12 catchers who have caught at least 10 games of his in the majors. By far the worst of those was Jorge Posada, with whom Burnett had a 5.61 ERA. Russell Martin has caught all four starts by Burnett this year and he has a 3-0 record. Burnett’s ERA this year is an unimpressive 4.37 but he’s had some trouble with the gopher ball, as his xFIP checks in at 3.89. With two home starts this week, make sure Burnett is active.
Kyle Drabek – After opening the season with three straight strong starts, Drabek was knocked around (5.1 IP, 4 ER) in his last outing. This week he has road starts in Texas and New York, a tough go for anyone, much less a rookie. Drabek has a 5.63 BB/9 and has allowed 8 BB in his last 11 IP. The Rangers and Yankees are in the top four in the American League in runs scored and no pitcher can survive putting extra runners on base against those offenses. Move Drabek to the bench this week.
Matt Harrison – Shoulder injuries the past two seasons have kept Harrison from throwing many innings. A lack of success versus RHB has led to ERAs of 6.11 and 4.71, respectively, the past two years. But Harrison is healthy now and a new pitching approach has led to a very strong start. Last year, Harrison threw a slider 15 percent of the time and it was his worst offering, with a Pitch Type Value of -3.7, the worst of his four pitches. This year, he is throwing fewer sliders (8.5%) and more changeups (18%) and the results have been impressive. RHB have a .147/.238/.267 slash line in 86 PA this year. Last year RHB posted a .770 OPS against him. While his 1.88 ERA will undoubtedly go up, Harrison’s xFIP of 3.85 is nearly a run lower than his lifetime mark. Keep putting Harrison into your lineup.
Daniel Hudson – One of the early leaders in the biggest positive spread between his ERA (5.92) and his FIP (3.55), Hudson has been victimized this year by two things: a very low LOB% (53.0) and a high BB/9 (4.44). Last year Hudson had a 2.55 BB/9, so he is certainly capable of throwing more strikes. This week he squares off against the Phillies and Cubs, two teams that are below average in drawing walks. The Phillies are tied for 12th while the Cubs are 14th. Look for Hudson to break into the win column this week and keep him active.
Justin Masterson – Previously, Masterson has been a pitcher whose peripherals were much better than his actual results. But this year he has a 1.71 ERA and a 4.06 xFIP. His lifetime xFIP is 4.00 so Masterson is pitching like he normally does but is just having much better results. A .256 BABIP without allowing a HR helps explain the difference. Masterson’s early success is unlikely to last all season. He still is murder on RHB while he struggles versus LHB. He goes up against the Royals and Tigers, who can stack their lineup with lefties. Give Masterson the week off if you can.
Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 4 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.
Lee, Weaver, Cain, G. Gonzalez, J. Garcia, Nolasco, Buchholz, Lowe, Lewis, Garza, Floyd, Arroyo, Kennedy, Britton, Zimmermann, Narveson, Davis, Norris, Dickey, Hochevar, Rogers, Coke, Colon, Bedard, Blackburn, Morton, Garland, Moseley, Humber, Russell.
Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.
Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 2 pitchers and how they fared.
Buehrle – Advised to start. 6 Ks, 2.40 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 4 ER, 15 IP
Correia – Advised to sit. 1 K, 6.00 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 4 ER, 6 IP
Dempster – Advised to sit. W, 13 Ks, 7.15 ERA, 1.589 WHIP, 9 ER, 11.1 IP
McClellan – Advised to start. 2 W, 6 Ks, 1.39 ERA, 1.308 WHIP, 2 ER, 13 IP
Rogers – Advised to start. W, 2 Ks, 4.78 ERA, 1.941 WHIP, 3 ER, 5.2 IP
Here is the latest update to Week 23 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.
Pitchers not listed on last update
NYY – Burnett
TAM – Price
STL – Smoltz
WAS – Lannan
TEX – McCarthy
PIT – McCutchen
CIN – Maloney
KC – Chen
Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts
KC – Bannister
TEX – Nippert
WAS – Mock
TAM – Sonnanstine
CIN – Lehr
NYM – Misch
Burnett was 10-4 at the end of July but since then has gone 0-4 with a 6.54 ERA and a 1.594 WHIP in seven games. He has allowed six HR in his last three games, two of which were on the road. Burnett has two home starts this week, including a game against the Rays, who are third in the league in homers.
Price has gotten a decision in 13 of his last 14 starts and has gone 6-7 in that span. Five of his six wins have been Quality Starts and he has not allowed more than two runs in those six games. But in the seven losses Price has allowed 33 runs and has just one Quality Start. He has a huge home/road split, with a 6-3 record and a 3.32 ERA at Tropicana Field, compared to a 6.81 road ERA. Price has road games this week at New York and at Boston.
Smoltz has made three starts for the Cardinals and has 1 BB and 21 SO in 17 IP. And while he allowed 8 HR in 40 IP in the American League, Smoltz has surrendered just 1 HR in the National League. His first start this week is against the Brewers, the team that scored four runs in six innings against him, three on a HR by Casey McGehee.
Lannan is 2-5 with a 5.13 ERA in his last 11 games. Prior to that, he had won four straight decisions after altering his pitching style to reduce strikeouts and pitch to contact. In the last 11 games, Lannan has a 24/21 SO/BB ratio and has only topped three strikeouts in a game once, when he notched 6 Ks in a win against the Marlins.
McCarthy has made one start since being activated from the disabled list, where he spent nearly three months recovering from a stress fracture in his right shoulder. For the year, McCarthy has an average fastball velocity of 89.2 percent but in his first outing back, he averaged 86.6 and maxed out at 88.4, yet still picked up his sixth win of the season. McCarthy has a 5.91 road ERA this season and has one home and one road game this week.
McCutchen won his major league debut last week against the Reds and notched a Quality Start, going 6 IP with 3 ER. Acquired from the Yankees in the Xavier Nady deal, McCutchen throws in the low 90s and if he can keep the ball in the park, he has a chance. Last year in Triple-A, McCutchen allowed 22 HR in 118.1 IP and went 7-9. This year in Triple-A, he allowed 10 HR in 142.2 IP and went 13-6. McCutchen allowed a leadoff homer to Drew Stubbs in his major league debut.
Maloney has made four starts in the majors and given up two homers in each of them. He has a 0.53 GB/FB ratio and a 20 percent HR/FB mark. Maloney has road starts this week at Colorado and at Chicago. Clint Barmes and Troy Tulowitzki have combined to hit 17 HR versus LHP this year, although no one on the Cubs has more than 4 HR versus southpaws.
Chen is likely to remain in the rotation with injuries to Brian Bannister and Gil Meche. He is a decent strikeout pitcher, with a 6.87 K/9 mark but that is the only thing Chen has going for him fantasy-wise. Both his ERA and FIP are over 5.00 and his WHIP checks in at 1.49. Like Maloney, he is a flyball pitcher (0.57 GB/FB) and he has a 1.64 HR/9 mark. Since notching 13 W with the Orioles in 2005, Chen has just one victory in the majors since, although it did come this season.
Hopefully you were able to pick up Roy Oswalt and Tim Stauffer last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.
Obtain
Kevin Youkilis – His AVG has taken a big hit since coming off the DL, falling 89 points. But nobody seriously expected him to challenge for .400, either. He is riding a modest six-game hitting streak and more importantly, is showing good power. In his last 16 games, Youkilis has a .281-5-14-13-0 fantasy line. He seems like a good bet to match last year’s power numbers, which many people doubted Youkilis could do again in 2009.
Oliver Perez – I can hear the groans already. Perez is terrible, he has no control and he is just as likely to get shelled as he is to pitch a good game. But in his first two games since being back, Perez has delivered exactly what a fantasy owner should expect from him – a W, good strikeout numbers (8 in 11 IP) and a high but acceptable ERA (4.09). I would recommend not actually watching him pitch, but in his 14 or so remaining starts if Perez delivers 6 W, a 4.00 ERA and his current 7.71 K/9, I think that would be nice production for the back of a team’s rotation from a guy likely available on the waiver wire.
Garret Anderson – Stat heads hate him because he does not walk and posts poor OBP numbers. But fantasy players like his AVG and respectable numbers in other categories. In mid-June, Anderson was hitting just .254 but since then his bat has been heating up. Over his last 30 games, Anderson is batting .336 with 17 RBIs in 107 ABs. He is no longer an everyday player, but Anderson still has the ability to hit for a high AVG and not kill you in the power categories.
Mat Latos – This week’s Padres pitcher recovering from an injury is Latos. He was ranked as one of the top HS pitchers in the 2006 draft but fell due to signability concerns. The Padres took him on the 11th round and he ended up at Broward CC. After a good JuCo season, San Diego gave him a seven-figure signing bonus before the ’07 draft. Latos missed most of the 2008 season with a strained intercostals muscle. But he was very impressive this season in the minors, going 8-1 with 1.37 ERA with 73 strikeouts in 72.1 innings combined between Single-A and Double-A, with the majority of his work occurring in the Texas League. Latos has already made one start for the Padres, where he showed a fastball that averaged 94.9 mph. He is on a strict pitch count for right now, which may limit his W potential, but he is a talented pitcher who may be under the radar of many fantasy owners.
Miguel Montero – For most of the first three months of the season, Montero was a huge disappointment. But he has a .413/.439/.683 slash line over his last 16 games. After teasing fantasy owners with glimpses of talent the past two seasons at the major league level, Montero apparently is putting it together here in July.
Exchange
Todd Helton – After last year’s injury-riddled campaign, Helton has bounced back with an impressive .324 AVG. In his last 22 games, Helton is batting .346 but it is the “emptiest” .346 you are likely ever to see. He has just 1 HR, 10 RBIs and 8 R in that span and 0 SB. Helton’s .359 BABIP is not out of line with marks he has put up in his past but it would surprise virtually nobody if that mark fell some and at this point, AVG is the only category that Helton is a plus player anymore.
A.J. Burnett – The strikeouts are down while the walks and HR allowed are up from 2008. Yet his ERA is 26 points lower than a season ago. Burnett’s FIP checks in at 90 points higher than his ERA. A slightly lower than normal .283 BABIP helps but the big thing right now is a career-best 79.5 percent strand rate. Burnett is 4-1 with a 1.82 ERA in his last six games, but that includes 14 shutout innings against the Mets, a team he will not see again this season.
Alfonso Soriano – A .279 BABIP gives hope for a second-half rebound for Soriano, but as R.J. Anderson pointed out earlier in the month, pitchers have altered their approach to Soriano and his season-long slump shows no signs of letting up anytime soon. Pitchers are throwing fewer fastballs to Soriano and his numbers have declined across the board. Outside of RBIs, Updated ZiPS has him failing to reach the fantasy numbers he put up in 2007, when he played in 135 games. Soriano is on target for 155 games this year.
Brad Penny – The good news is that he pitches for a team that scores 5.16 runs per game and his FIP is 81 points lower than his ERA. The bad news is that his spot in the rotation is hardly guaranteed. He has been a decent option in deep mixed leagues or AL-only ones, but time appears to be running out. His first start after the All-Star break (5 IP, 6 ER) was not encouraging.
Jonny Gomes – A .304/.395/.549 slash line looks great for a player bound to see more playing time with the injury to Jay Bruce. But Gomes has a .397 BABIP and he is unlikely to maintain his 18.2 HR/FB ratio going forward. Also, the Cincinnati fan base turned on Adam Dunn for his propensity to strike out often. How will they treat a full-time Gomes who has a 32.4 percent K rate this season, which would look right in line with Dunn’s Reds career?
Stock Up
Franklin Gutierrez, Mariners
By now, everyone is well aware of Gutierrez’s Road Runner act in center field (the former Indian holds a +20.9 UZR/150 figure in 2009). But how many people realize that the 26 year-old has turned in a quality offensive season as well? Gutierrez owns a .352 wOBA, with 12 home runs and a .295/.355/.460 line in 335 PA. That translates to +8.2 Batting Runs, which ranks in the top 10 among center fielders. Combine the sweet range with an above-average bat, and you have a guy who quietly ranks 2nd in Wins Above Replacement in center field (3.5 WAR).
Brett Anderson, Athletics
Originally a 2nd-round pick by the D-Backs back in 2006, Anderson is most often noted for his polish and four-pitch mix. But he has as nearly as much upside as any young arm in the game as well. During his rookie year, the 21 year old lefty has punched out 6.61 batters per nine innings while issuing 2.36 BB/9, good for a 4.23 FIP. Equipped with a 92 MPH fastball, 83 MPH slider, 77 MPH curveball and an 83 MPH changeup, Anderson has placed 51.2% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.3 % MLB average).
If anything, those numbers underrate Anderson’s work. He posted a 2.0 K/BB ratio in April and 1.86 in May, but improved to 3.57 in June and 6.00 in July. Take a look at the velocity readings on Anderson’s two most utilized pitches (fastball and slider) over the course of the season, along with their Runs/100 pitches value:
April: 91 MPH fastball (-0.47 Runs/100 pitches), 82.7 MPH slider (+1.62)
May: 91.4 MPH fastball (-3.32), 82.4 MPH slider (-0.63)
June: 92.6 MPH fastball (-1.73), 83.8 MPH slider (+4.41)
July: 94.5 MPH fastball (+4.09), 85.6 MPH slider (+7.03)
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
Also a 21 year-old southpaw, Kershaw has mauled hitters for 8.78 K/9 in 2009. With a searing 94 MPH fastball (+1.5 runs/100, fourth among starters) and a Looney Tunes curveball (+1.79), Kershaw has managed to thrive in the majors despite walking 5.06 hitters per nine innings, with a first pitch strike percentage (52.9%) that’s about 5 percentage points below the MLB average. While better control and a third offering to keep from losing the strike zone vs. righties stand between Kershaw and acedom, it’s frightening to think that he can already dominate despite being so far from fully developed.
Seth Smith, Rockies
Smith has found himself in the starting lineup often as of late, at the expense of Carlos Gonzalez. The 26 year-old lefty hitter holds a career .297/.392/.495 line in 329 major league PA, and ZiPS calls for a .298/.369/.470 triple-slash for the rest of the 2009 season. A disciplined hitter (17.6 outside swing%, compared to the 25% MLB average), Smith can be a nice asset to fantasy owners. He’s not well-known and likely needs to be seated against tougher lefty pitching (his career minor league line vs. LHP is a patient-but-punchless .276/.360/.385), but Smith holds value in NL-only leagues and deep mixed leagues. Just keep an eye on the scheduled starter for the opposition, as he’ll likely only be plugged in against righties.
Roy Oswalt, Astros
It’s hard to believe, but Oswalt is now in his 9th season in the majors. Sometimes, I get the feeling that Houston’s ace doesn’t quite get the level of attention he deserves. While he’s never been the best pitcher in baseball, he consistently ranks among the top 25. The 31 year-old righty is just a pitching metronome, steadily humming along. 2009 is no different: Oswalt holds a 3.77 FIP, with 7.01 K/9 and 2.24 BB/9. His overall contact rate is down a tick (from 82.2% to 81.1%), while his percentage of contact within the zone has fallen from 88.1% in 2008 to 84.4% this season (87.8% MLB average). He has been at his best in July, with 17 K’s and just 2 free passes in 23 frames.
Stock Down
Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
Hermida is a exasperating player to watch. In the minors, he looked like a Brian Giles, as a lefty stick with exceptional plate discipline (.398 OBP, 18.5 BB%). After a bumpy beginning in the majors (.310 wOBA in 2006), Hermida posted a .372 wOBA as a 23 year-old in 2007. But instead of building upon that, Jeremy managed just a .321 wOBA in 2008, as his once-pristine plate discipline eroded (27.8 outside-swing% in ’08, compared to the 25.4% big league Avg).
He hasn’t fished at quite as many outside offerings this year (24 outside-swing%, with a 3 percent increase in walk rate). But, Hermida continues to hit more like a middle infielder than a corner outfielder. His ISO was .205 in 2007, but fell to .157 in ’08 and checks in at just .140 in ’09. He’s “only” 25, but Hermida just does not look like an everyday player at this point. A plodding outfielder (career -9.8 UZR/150) with platoon issues (career. 236/.316/.378 vs. LHP) who only pops the occasional double? Is that really all there is here?
Adam LaRoche, Pirates
An impending free agent, the elder LaRoche is doing the Pirates no favors in the club’s quest to place him in another uniform. On the positive side, the 29 year-old lefty batter has drawn walks at a career-high clip (11.5 BB%), while decreasing his first-pitch strike% for the third straight season (from 60.9% in ’07, 58.1 in ’08 and 55% this year; the MLB average is 58%).
On the other hand, LaRoche’s ISO (.193) has dipped from his .230 mark in 2008, and he has a .327 wOBA that just doesn’t stand out at all at first base. LaRoche clearly isn’t a poor player, but he’s just another face in the crowd at baseball’s most powerful position. The former Brave is a career .269/.338/.486 hitter; the average first baseman is batting .276/.362/.484 in 2009. There just aren’t many clubs who can look at that production and say, “that constitutes an upgrade for us.”
Trevor Cahill, Athletics
While fellow rookie Anderson is quickly figuring out the majors, Cahill is scuffling. The 21 year-old remains a fantastic young arm, and his struggles shouldn’t be entirely unexpected considering his occasional control problems in the minors (3.7 BB/9). But it’s clear that Cahill has a ways to go. He has whiffed only 4.11 hitters per nine frames, while showing neither sharp control (3.93 BB/9) nor worm-burning tendencies (47.3 GB%).
While in the minors, Cahill was noted for possessing knockout breaking pitches. Baseball America called described a “79-81 MPH knuckle-curve, a swing-and-miss pitch with hard downward movement” as well as “a low-80’s slider with cutter-like action.” In the show, Cahill has lacked trust in his breaking stuff. Trevor has tossed his curve less than 4% of the time, while using the slider about 6 percent. Both have been crunched (-1.86 runs/100 for the curve, -2.19 for the slider) in a small sample. I wonder if he tossed a few breakers that got hammered early on, and then went into “survival mode” and basically scrapped those pitches.
A.J. Burnett, Yankees
On the surface, Burnett’s first year in the Bronx appears to be going swimmingly (8-4 record, 3.81 ERA). However, his FIP is a less-shiny 4.71. A.J. has handed out far too many BB’s, with 4.61 walks per nine innings in 2009. His K rate is also down, from the mid-nine’s in 2007 and 2008 to 8.1 per nine this year. A .283 BABIP and a strand rate (79.5%) that’s about 8 percent above his career average have helped him stave off a climb in ERA to this point, but he’s going to have to sharpen his control. Perhaps noting Burnett’s wildness, opposing batters have swung at fewer pitches outside of the zone (24.3% in ’08, 20.7% in ’09).
Mike Pelfrey, Mets
The 6-7 sinkerballer has generated grounders at a 53.7% clip this year (up from 49.6% in 2008), but it’s hard to say Pelfrey has made a whole lot of progress this season. His K rate has dropped from 4.93 per nine innings in ’08 to 4.72 in 2009, while his walk rate has increased from 2.87 per nine to 3.23. Pelfrey has located just 46.6% of his pitches within the strike zone. Ironically, the former Shocker has seen his fastball effectiveness drop (-0.25 runs/100 pitches in 2009, +0.82 in ’08) just as his much-maligned breaking stuff has perked up (+0.91 for the slider, +1.68 for the curve).
Here is the latest update to Week 10 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.
Pitchers not listed on last update
LAD – Billingsley
NYY – Burnett
SD – C. Young
TB – Sonnanstine
DET – Bonderman
BAL – Bergesen
STL – B. Thompson
Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts
STL – Lohse
NYY – Wang
TB – Niemann
DET – Willis
BAL – D. Hernandez
Billingsley has pitched at least six innings in each of his 12 outings this year and has 11 Quality Starts. The Dodgers have also supported him well offensively, averaging 5.11 runs per game in his starts.
Burnett went seven straight games without a win before earning a W in his last two outings. It has been tough going for Burnett in his first season in pinstripes. His K/9 are down, his BB/9 are up and his HR/9 have nearly doubled. A groundball pitcher throughout his career, Burnett has a 0.96 GB/FB ratio in 2009.
Young has two road starts this week. In Petco Park, Young is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA and a 1.053 WHIP. On the road he is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.761 WHIP.
Sonnanstine’s FIP stands at 2.08 lower than his ERA. But his FIP still checks in at an ugly 4.99, over a full run higher than it was a year ago. All of his numbers are worse than they were a year ago. He has allowed five or more runs in five of his 11 starts this year.
Bonderman will make his 2009 debut after being on the disabled list since last June due to surgery to repair a blood clot in his axillary vein. He made four starts in the minors, three at Triple-A. In his last outing he pitched eight shutout innings with six hits, no walks and five strikeouts.
Bergesen is a groundball specialist. His 2.09 GB/FB rate would rank sixth, just behind Derek Lowe, if he had enough innings to qualify. Bergesen has done a good job of giving the Orioles a chance to win, only once in nine outings giving up more runs than innings pitched. His last two outings have been Quality Starts.
Thompson made his first start of the year on June 2nd after nine relief appearances. A curve ball specialist, Thompson relies on control and keeping the ball in the park in order to be successful.
Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 9
Bronson Arroyo – In 10 games this season, Arroyo has a 5.12 ERA and seven wins. That seems less than likely. But Arroyo has been pitching very well since allowing nine runs in one inning on May 6th. He has gone 3-1 in his last four games with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.065 WHIP. He is currently active in only 43 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Get him in the lineup this week.
Joe Blanton – After nine games he has a 6.14 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP. But the strikeouts are better than they’ve ever been (8.42 K/9), he has had a little bit of bad luck with a .354 BABIP and 4.80 FIP and he is coming off his best start ever as a member of the Phillies, with 11 strikeouts and no earned runs in seven innings. Blanton’s HR/9 sits at an ugly 1.58 but he has road games at pitcher-friendly Petco Park and at Dodger Stadium this week. The Dodgers are 12th in the National League in home runs meaning this is a good week to get Blanton active.
A.J. Burnett – He is coming off his best outing of the season but faces a tough road this week with home games versus Texas and Tampa Bay. Burnett has allowed 10 home runs in 64 IP this year and goes up against a Rangers squad that is tied for first in the American League in homers and a Rays team that ranks third. Furthermore, Yankee Stadium has a 1.565 simple HR factor so far this year. It might be a good time to get him out of the lineup for a week.
Zach Duke – Since giving up six runs in his third start of the year, Duke has been remarkably effective, with a 2.66 ERA in his last seven starts. But it seems like he has exceeded expectations. Duke has induced fewer ground balls this season, yet has seen his HR/9 drop to 0.50. Also, he has a nifty 1.11 WHIP despite a 1.46 career mark in the category. At some point these marks are going to regress. Duke has a tough road with a matchup against Johan Santana and a trip to Houston, where he has never won in five games at Minute Maid Park.
Jarrod Washburn – Following two disappointing starts, Washburn got back on track with six shutout innings versus Oakland in his last outing. This week he gets two starts at Safeco Field, where two of his three wins have come this season. Overall, Washburn still has a very nice 3.45 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Owned in just 32.2 percent of ESPN leagues, Washburn could be a good pickup for someone looking to strike paydirt this week with a two-start pitcher.
Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 9 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.
Santana, Halladay, Lincecum, Wainwright, Oswalt, Saunders, Chamberlain, Kershaw, Slowey, Wolf, Myers, Matsuzaka, Jimenez, Floyd, Porcello, Volquez, Parra, Kawakami, Sonnanstine, Cook, L. Hernandez, Wellemeyer, Davies, Cahill, Hill, A. Miller, Snell, Wells, Colon, Suppan, Holland, Correia, Huff, Buckner, Paulino, Stammen.
Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.
Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 7 and how they did.
Nolasco –Advised to sit. 2 K, 36.00 ERA, 4.50 WHIP (1 start)
Baker – Advised to sit. W, 10 K, 4.72 ERA, 1.20 WHIP (2)
Martis – Advised to sit. 4 K, 7.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP (2)
McCarthy – Advised to start. W, 10 K, 1.69 ERA, 1.38 WHIP (2)
Hammel – Advised to start. W, 8 K, 3.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP (2)
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