Archive for Adam Kennedy

When it gets down to the final few rounds of your draft or those last couple of auction dollars, you need to make some smart decisions.  Keeper league owners usually drift towards the minor league hopefuls that could make an impact either this year or next, but for re-draft leagues, it’s about winning now.  Sure, you could take a chance on a prospect and hope to get a second half call-up, but obviously there are no guarantees and the player could be waiver fodder by mid-season, rendering the pick a waste.  You might be better served sifting through some of the major league rosters and finding yourself a couple of utility players who could realistically end up with extra playing time.  It happens almost every year, and the value that some of these guys produce by year’s end could be the difference between a championship squad and an “also-ran”.

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With prospect call-ups and guys going on and coming off the disabled list, things are moving a little faster than usual with respect to third base. Considering the relative dearth of quality options at third thus far into the season (I still believe in a town called Hope, as slick Willy used to say), I thought I’d condense some of the news and also take a quick peek at opportunities in position eligibility.

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A while back, we checked the position at second base and outlined some tiers that should help you choose between options in your draft. Unfortunately, this position doesn’t produce ADP values as cleanly as some other positions (and we like our values clean).

Take the first two tiers, for example. It would be nice to pick the lowest-drafted second baseman in the first two tiers, Brian Roberts (40.69 ADP), and just declare him the value of the two tiers. The problem is that Roberts has too many question marks to get the (grade A) stamp of approval as a value. For instance, though his ISO was a second-best last year (.168), and it seems to have grown organically (three straight increases), that ISO has famously peaked before (.201 in his 18-home-run 2005 season) and then returned back towards the baseline (.137). He’s 32 and his stolen bases have declined for two straight seasons. Then again, 2008 produced his career-best full-season speed score (7.3), and that wasn’t so long ago. The point is, counting on his for anything more than 12 or so home runs and 30 or so stolen bases probably isn’t a good idea, and those numbers seem a little light for the third round. On the other hand, Dustin Pedroia (37.48 ADP) goes three picks earlier and isn’t going to hit that stolen base number and may only out-homer Roberts by a handful. Maybe Roberts is the actual value here.

There is a lot of questionable power in the next tier. Aaron Hill (46.87 ADP), Robinson Cano (45.83 ADP) and Jose Lopez (123.97 ADP) all had power spikes last year, and their draft positions show the confidence the general public has that the different players will return with good power in 2010. Once again, it’s tempting to take Lopez with the lowest ADP and call him the value – and there are some reasons to believe the power will stick. His ISO, fly ball, and HR/FB rates have all steadily risen over the last three years. The problem is that, with his walk rate (3.7% career), his value is tied up in that power, and his career ISO (.141) is still low enough that it is hard to count on. Why not take Dan Uggla (85.10) a couple rounds earlier so that you can depend on his power (.225 career ISO)? Here it seems that Uggla is the real value in the tier.

The final tier is a rag-tag group, as Asdrubal Cabrera (158.18) and Howie Kendrick (146.64) leading the way, though neither is a lock to hit 15 home runs or stolen bases next year. They’ll have to hit a lot of singles to make up for their shortcomings in those two important fantasy categories. Again here, Clint Barmes (307.61) and Adam Kennedy (327.96) bring up the rear but have too many questions to tout as the values of the tier. Barmes doesn’t walk (4.3%), strikes out a fair amount (22% last year), and though he showed power last year (.195 ISO), his career power is less exciting (.157). He’s also done a lot of jumping around in the power department, and last year may have just defined his upside anyway. Kennedy had a nice year, but despite his 20 stolen bases last year, his speed score was actually below-average. He doesn’t really have a single skill you can count on.

If you’re going to take a plunge, why not take one on Rickie Weeks (212.37 ADP)? Yes, it will cost a healthier pick than Barmes, but we’re still talking about a 19th-round pick in mixed league drafts. His ISO has jumped around some too (.125 – .245), but it’s been trending upwards in a general way. There’s still the upside that he might finally put together one of his better strikeout rates (say, 2008’s 24.2%) with one of his better walk rates (11.8% in 2008) and BABIPs (.313 last year) and get his batting average up past the .250s. We know he has power and speed, and an okay batting average would make him a valuable second baseman, especially in head-to-head leagues. That he might be the value of the final tier should serve as a positional scarcity warning for the position, too.

San Diego Padres signed C Yorvit Torrealba to a one-year, $1.25 million contract with a $3.5 million mutual option for the 2011 season.

Torrealba, 31, is expected to split time behind the dish with Nick Hundley. Dusty Ryan, designated for assignment by the Tigers and picked up by the Padres in a December trade, is likely ticketed for Triple-A Portland.

In part-time play last year, Torrealba turned in his best offensive season since he was a Giant back in 2004. He batted .291/.351/.380 in 242 plate appearances with the Rockies. However, there’s little reason to believe that he’ll replicate that production in 2010.

Torrealba’s BABIP was .355 in 2009, compared to a .298 career mark in the majors. And clearly, the change in home ballparks is massive. When you take Coors Field into account, Torrealba’s ’09 production at the plate was still 16 percent worse than average (84 wRC+). His career wRC+ with Colorado is 77.

So, with plenty of extra hits dropping in and the benefit of Coors, Torrealba was still a tepid batter. Now, he’s going to cavernous Petco, anathema to all things offense. CHONE projects a .242/.301/.353 line in 2010, with a 73 wRC+.

Oakland Athletics traded LHP Dana Eveland to the Toronto Blue Jays for a PTBNL or cash.

A husky left-hander, Eveland has now been traded three times during his career. The Brewers’ 16th-round pick in the 2002 draft was swapped to the Diamondbacks in November of 2006, and then headed to Oakland in December of 2007 as a sweetener in the Dan Haren deal.

In four seasons at the Triple-A level, the 26 year-old punched out 7.7 batters per nine frames, with 3.4 BB/9. He struggled in three cups of coffee in the majors from 2005-2007.

But Eveland tossed 168 frames in 29 starts with the A’s in 2008, with 6.32 K/9, 4.13 BB/9 and a 4.55 xFIP. There’s nothing awe-inspiring about that line, and he did often back himself into hitter’s counts (54.7 first-pitch strike percentage, compared to the 58-59% MLB average).

However, Eveland’s four-pitch mix garnered ground balls 48.7 percent of the time. His 90 MPH fastball was worth -0.31 runs per 100 pitches, with his high-70’s curve (-0.18) and low-80’s changeup (-0.49) also in the red. But Eveland’s bread-and-butter offering was a low-80’s slider, thrown over 23 percent of the time with a +1.76 run value per 100 tosses.

2009, by comparison, was a disaster. In 44 frames with Oakland, Eveland struck out just 22 batters and issued 26 free passes. He wasn’t 7.16 ERA-level bad, but that 5.20 xFIP was still plenty grim. Eveland’s fastball velocity dipped to 88.7 MPH. At Triple-A Sacramento, the southpaw posted rates of 6.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9, with a 4.33 FIP in 124 innings.

There’s little downside from Toronto’s perspective, as they pick up the recently DFA’d Eveland at little cost. If he can find the form that allowed him to pitch at a league-average level in ’08, Eveland could fight for a spot at the back of the Blue Jays’ rotation. It’s an awfully crowded competition, however. His CHONE forecast for 2010? A 4.59 FIP in 144 innings, with 5.44 K/9 and 3.94 BB/9.

Washington Nationals signed INF Adam Kennedy to a one-year, $1.25 million contract with a $2 million club option for the 2011 season.

Kennedy will man second base for the Nationals, meaning that Cristian Guzman will remain at shortstop for the time being and that Ian Desmond does not have a defined role with the club at the outset of the 2010 season.

Signed to a minor league deal by the Rays last year, Kennedy was traded to the A’s and split his time between second and third base. In 587 PA, Kennedy batted .289/.348/.410 with a 108 wRC+. He nabbed 20 bases in 26 attempts to boot.

Kennedy didn’t come anywhere near that offensive level from 2006 to 2008 (a combined 77 wRC+), and he turned 34 in January. It’s not surprising, then, that the projection systems aren’t too fond of him: CHONE calls for an 89 wRC+, as does Marcel. Given his multi-position eligibility and ability to swipe some bags, Kennedy could have a tiny bit of value in NL formats early next season. Just don’t expect an ’09 repeat.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops and catchers.)

Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place.

Chase Utley is in a tier of his own. No other second baseman has been able to combine the power and speed and batting average year-in and year-out like the pomade Phillie infielder. Ian Kinsler and Brandon Phillips are missing the batting average and the health, Dustin Pedroia and Brian Roberts are missing the power. That said, these top five second basemen are all reasonably stable players that boast good speed along with varying degrees of power. They just don’t all have the total package like Utley.

The next tier should be the controversial one. While Aaron Hill’s season was one for the ages, there are understandably some doubts about his ability to repeat. He more than doubled his previous career-high HR/FB percentage without really showing a corresponding change in his approach. The most likely scenario is that Hill settles in with similar power to fellow tier-member Robinson Cano. Cano would be higher but since he’s shown that his batting average seems so tied to his BABIP, there’s some rightful nervousness about his ability to repeat his own career year. Dan Uggla and Jose Lopez have similar power and similar batting average issues. Pick the right player during a good BABIP year, and you’ll have a great second baseman with a decent batting average and lots of power. Get the guy in a bad year, and you’ve seen what can happen.

The last tier holds the most risk, as it should be. There are many Asdrubal Cabrera fans, and his double eligibility will get him drafted at one of the keystone positions. The problem is that the speed is somewhat borderline (21/29 in 1000+ at bats) and the power is negligible. Clint Barmes may not succeed on a good percentage of his attempts, and he’s a much more flawed real-life player, but he’s reached heights in power and speed that Cabrera may never. Adam Kennedy had a great year and ended up right around where he was five years ago, a second basemen that can hit double-digit home runs, steal about 20 bags, and hit close to .300. It’s not the same upside as the rest of the guys in the tier, but it seems repeatable. Howie Kendrick and Rickie Weeks probably have the most upside of the tier, but they are quickly running out chances in the minds of fantasy managers. Both made strides in their limited time last year and make for good bench plays in mixed league drafts for managers that got a third- or fourth-tier second baseman as their starter.

Overall, the position seems pretty deep, with empty-batting-average guys numbering #15-18 as backup plans. Once Utley goes, managers might be best served waiting for a second baseman to drop, knowing that they can probably take a shot on a young guy with some upside once the top 12 are gone.