Archive for 2023

Last year, Justin Steele verged upon pitch-tracking-era history:

Justin Steele is 21 four-seamers away from history*.

Most four-seamers thrown w/out giving up a HR in the pitch tracking era:

Heath Bell: 807 in 2010
Justin Steele: 786 in 2022.

— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) July 22, 2022

If you don’t know how this ends, my exceptionally dim-witted-but-nevertheless-talented colleague and friend Alex Fast jinxed it in spectacular fashion:

This streak by Steele ended on his first pitch of tonight's game. Schwarber slugs a 90.8 mph four-seam fastball from Steele over the RF wall. https://t.co/1cZyei5EHT

— Meghan Montemurro (@M_Montemurro) July 22, 2022

Nevertheless, the streak remains interesting because Steele is up to his same antics.

Only four pitches have been thrown 500 times this year and allowed just one home run. Here they are, in order of total pitches thrown and accompanied by total plate appearances (PA) completed:

1. Steele’s four-seamer (725 thrown, 199 PA)
2. Kevin Gausman’s splitter (622, 160)
3. Jordan Montgomery’s sinker (584, 170)
4. Hunter Greene’s slider (516, 100)

It’s one thing to accomplish this feat at all; it’s another all together to do so with a fastball (kudos to J-Mont, but a sinker ain’t a four-seamer). Here is the top of the list of only fastballs that have allowed one or fewer home runs, ordered by most thrown. The gulf between first and second from a volume standpoint is astounding:

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s not quite sh*tposting, but it’s close: I post a cryptic poll on Twitter and just let it do its thing. It is, to frame it in this week’s Internet meme jargon, my “beige flag,” my desire to sow chaos by dripping a drop of blood into shark-infested waters.

Here’s my most-recent artistic masterpiece:

miller

— Alex "Oxlade" Chamberlain (@DolphHauldhagen) June 11, 2023

It seemed like Mason, Bryce, and Bobby all tied or set some kind of record this season, each of them one-upping his predecessor from the the prior week or month or whatever it was. It’s all happening so fast, these Millers.

The poll went exactly how I expected: Read the rest of this entry »

It’s like second Christmas.

From 2015-22, one player per year has put up first-round value from the 12th round or later (15 teamers):

2015: Keuchel
2016: Villar
2017: Judge
2018: Snell
2019: KMarte
2020: Voit
2021: Mullins
2022: Adolis

History says another does it this year. Who ya got?

— Ryan Bloomfield (@RyanBHQ) March 20, 2023

Ryan Bloomfield of BaseballHQ has conducted this exercise every year for some time now. It’s one of my favorite exercises, if only because it has yet to fail us in at least eight years. (I’m pretty sure there were representatives from 2014 and before, too, and Bloomfield has simply tastefully truncated the list for us.) But, also, it shows the possible potential impact of a late-round draft pick. Obviously, you don’t want to waste any picks. But if you know where to look, it feels less random.

The common thread connecting these players is at least one extreme outlier tool—or five well-above-average tool. Dallas Keuchel was MLB’s reigning ground-ball king. Jonathan Villar had 80-grade speed. Aaron Judge has 80-grade power; Luke Voit, 70-grade with above-average contact skills. Cedric Mullins and Adolis García are five-tool guys. Blake Snell was a burgeoning ace who spiked a lucky ERA and 21 wins but was otherwise deserved of his rank. The only questionable one here is Ketel Marte because of the timing: he hit 32 home runs when the ball was at its liveliest and has yet to replicate that kind of power. But his hit tool is plus-plus, and sometimes all it takes is lucking into a little bit extra in one of the other categories to push you over the top. Perhaps the biggest takeaway is it’s much easier to sike first-round value as a hitter than as a pitcher.

So, who could it be this year? Let’s use the general categories outlined above as the framework for identifying potential first-round silver bullets. Keep in mind this is mostly for fun, but also it is deadly, deadly serious. In order of National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) average draft position (ADP): Read the rest of this entry »

When I first started writing eight years ago, it felt necessary to provide a garrulous prologue about bold predictions, their meanings, the ethos behind the endeavor, et cetera, et cetera. Years went on, and that prologue grew leaner and leaner until we reached last year’s respectfully concise quip:

No prologue, just bold predictions. Bold, but not stupidly bold, and actionable in a way that can tangibly affect your fantasy season (for better or worse). Let’s go.

That still applies here, but I do want to say something: I am disappointed that I don’t have this year’s ________. Last year, it was Steven Kwan; the year before, Josh Rojas; before him, Jake Cronenworth; Jeff McNeil; José Ramírez; the hits keep on coming. No one stands out to me that way this year. That makes me sad. Disappointed, too, especially in myself. It’s not for lack of talent. It’s for lack of my time. I wish I had more time to immerse myself in the depths of the minor leagues.

I could probably rattle off a name or two that have a similar chance as those aforementioned. But it wouldn’t carry the same conviction. And conviction is the name of the game. So, sadly, there is no This Year’s Steven Kwan for 2023. I expect to remedy this issue next year. Please forgive me in the meantime.

OK, housekeeping’s complete. Let’s get into it, for realsies. (Note: the order here does not indicate preference or confidence. I randomized it!) Read the rest of this entry »

The 2023 season marks my fifth year in Tout Wars. My tenure to date can be characterized graciously as mediocre; I accomplished a head-to-head semifinals appearance (a benched Kole Calhoun home run away from a finals appearance) in my 2019 debut but succeeded it with consecutive ghastly, basement-dwelling finishes and last year’s extremely turbulent middle-of-the-pack showing.

Entering my third year of the 15-team 5-by-5 roto mixed league auction (salary draft) with on-base percentage (OBP), I feel like I’ve finally found my footing. I had little enthusiasm for fantasy baseball in its pandemic-shortened 2020 season, and the 2021 season was my first after my daughter was born. Needless to say I had (and still have) a lot less time (and sleep) to prepare than I did in my glory days. And having freshly moved from 12-team head-to-head to 15-team OBP, playing a new format against a high level of talent, I got absolutely clobbered. Last year marked my second in 15-team OBP, and it went a little better.

I vowed to do better this year, despite the impositions—my performance last year gave me a faint glimmer of hope that I could—but that, of course, remains TBD. Truthfully, I have less time than ever before. But I don’t want that to be an excuse. I just knew I’d have to be more focused at the draft table. I think I was. I’ll get to all of that shortly.

First, a review of last season:
Read the rest of this entry »