Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat
7:30 |
: Welcome everyone. Tonight I’m sipping on some Early Times Bottled in Bond.
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7:31 |
: Tout Wars changed hosts and we are still having issues getting all the league public, so I just have the results from the 15-team auction that I’m in.
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7:32 |
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7:32 |
: I’m looking for some high-risk, high-upside starting pitchers to gamble on early in the season. Who comes to mind?
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7:33 |
: Brown, Roupp, Severino, Smith-Shawver
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7:33 |
: Did I mess Devers up with my whole you’re my 3B now you’re my DH switcheroo
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7:34 |
: No … I think someone is still pouting and needs to accept reality.
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7:34 |
: Are you buying into Tork? Still looks suspicious to me. The K rate and launch angle low.
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7:35 |
: I think this will be the last week to get him if it’s real. I like adding as a bench bat. It’s impossible to find 30 HR bats on the wire.
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7:35 |
: Drop Kikuchi for Casey Mize or Kris Bubic? Or wait and see
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7:36 |
: Wait for him, the start was fine
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7:36 |
: Deep-as-it-gets 12 Team AL Only Roto – How much are you bidding from a $100 budget on Nolan Jones? (My league mates tend to over bid on guys like this).
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7:36 |
: $5 at most
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7:36 |
: Sal Frelick started three games, two against tough lefties. Move the needle any or is he just a singles hitter with some speed?
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7:36 |
: He’s not moving the needle just yet.
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7:37 |
: Is Gavin Williams a must hold in 12 team mixed? I’m OK at pitching & would probably drop him for Victor Scott.
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7:37 |
: I hope your name is right.
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7:38 |
: As for the question, it comes down to team needs so dropping Williams for Scott is acceptable since they were going in similar parts of the draft.
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7:39 |
: Pickup for next week: Fitts, Roupp or Hancock?
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7:39 |
: In that order
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7:39 |
: I dropped Goldschmidt for Soderstrom in a 12-team H2H league with OBP and slugging. Thought I’s take a chance on the young man’s upside. Too crazy?
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7:40 |
: Possible but depends on the league depth. In a 10-teamer with just 10 hitter slots, Goldy might belong on the Waiver Wire.
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7:40 |
: Kepler sat today against a lefty after starting against Gore opening day. Worth picking up and/or holding in 12-team, 5 OF league?
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7:41 |
: Don’t read too much into this first weekend when everyone gets to play. Give it another week to see if it’s a trend.
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7:41 |
: Please rank these Cs ROS for roto: Bo Naylor, Danny Jansen, Goodman, Amaya, Endy Rodriguez. I’m leaning Naylor and Goodman.
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7:42 |
: Goodman for sure. The other one is between Naylor, Jansen, and Amaya
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7:42 |
: Who was the hitter you had ranked in the 40s that was going in the 120s before Vegas? Happ or Luis Garcia, perhaps?
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7:43 |
: I said player and it was Sonny Gray. Then he got hurt so I backed off adding him since he was on all my other teams.
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7:43 |
: Tylor McGill – How much FAB % would you recommend ?
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7:44 |
: Good 5%.
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7:44 |
: Hi and thanks for all the work — am in a 12 team 5×5 roto league with sv/holds. Thinking of dropping Kjerstad for Vesia or Santillan — doesn’t seem like Kjerstad has regular playing time and I could use another RP. Do you have a preference?
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7:45 |
: I’d do the drop and I don’t have a read on either reliever. I usually have a tool set up that looks at recent usage and talent to target S/H guys but I don’t have it working yet.
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7:45 |
: Any thoughts on who closes for the Reds?
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7:47 |
: The hot hand and right now only the Giblet is out of the mix.
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7:47 |
: Yo, I need saves plus holds. Do you like any of cano, halverson, estevez, finnegan, Harvey, minter. Thanks!
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7:48 |
: Maybe Cano, I might look at better arms who might get holds like Staten, Santillan, or Martin (TEX)
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7:48 |
: Do you think Sasaki’s been bad enough that he’s at risk of getting sent down?
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7:49 |
: I know I won’t start him next week. I think they at least give him a couple more shots.
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7:49 |
: How would you rate these MI in 15 team ROS: Perdomo, Muncy, Polanco, Moore
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7:50 |
: OK Guys and gals, make sure to designate which Max Muncy and don’t use their birthdate.
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7:51 |
: I’ll assume it’s the A’s Muncy. I’d go Polanco, Muncy, Perdomo, Moore
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7:51 |
: Canning vs TOR, Paddack vs CHW/HOU, or Roupp vs HOU?
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7:51 |
: Paddack
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7:51 |
: Tylor McGill 10% FAB should do the trick or would you risk more (if so how much)… Thx
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7:52 |
: Depends on the league depth. I could see 1% work or in an NL-only, 50% might be right.
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7:52 |
: SS is looking like a spot I’ll be churning early on. How would you rate options like Winn, Otto, and Story. Worth stashing one of the H.Kim’s?
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7:52 |
: Otto is the easy call and Tampa’s Kim is worth a stash
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7:53 |
: whats a reasonable FAAB % for abreu
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7:54 |
: Please include league depth. Maybe 3%. I’m wondering if he had his best weekend of the season.
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7:54 |
: Why the bid on Dennis Santana?
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7:54 |
: no_body_knows.gif
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7:55 |
: Where would Miguel Vargas be on your list this week? I’m in a 14t H2H dynasty 7×7 (standard 5, BB, TB)…I have Bohm at 3B and lost Jung again. Is it frustration or sense talking when I think about moving on and not go through more of what I went through already with Nick Senzel?
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7:57 |
: I like Vargas for 2-3 weeks. He’s playing and could break out while covering the 3B and OF. A great option to have a bench bat
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7:57 |
: AJ was giving up some loud, square contact tonight – adjusting your rankings based on this start?
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7:57 |
: No, not on square contact … check Ball%
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7:58 |
: Three walks in 4 IP. The old ASSman is back
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7:58 |
: Last one for my deep AL only, standard roto. Could use a backup 3B. Its daily lineups and volume matters. 3B is the only position i dont have backed up. Moncada or Lenyn Sosa worth a pickup? ($5 minimum bid, $200 budget). Would probably be dropping Trey Sweeney
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7:59 |
: I’d only go with 1% on those two. Arias is another 3B to consider for min bid.
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7:59 |
: How much FAAB would you risk on suspect closer Clevinger and co-closer Luke Jackson in 1 12 team AL only H2H keeper league? We start off with $100.
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7:59 |
: I’m thinking it’ll take 10%
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8:00 |
: And thank you! These chats help every year!
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8:00 |
: You’re welcome
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8:00 |
: Always chasing saves . . . take a shot at Slaten or Halvorsen?
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8:00 |
: Halvorsen
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8:00 |
: Who do you like in the Tigers bullpen for saves?
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8:00 |
: brieske
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8:01 |
Nolan Jones, Refsnyder, Pillar, Straw, Misner, Davis Schnieder, McKinstry, Ezequiel Duran, Canha, Austin Slater, Travis Jankowski, Michael Taylor. |
8:02 |
: Jones and that’s it. Min bids on the rest until better players emerge
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8:02 |
: whod you rather add M. Meyer or Tylor megill? Also Mountcastle a drop for Torkelson? General thoughts on all players appreciated too.
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8:03 |
: I had Megill over Meyer during drafts, Megill. The Tork one is close because Mountcastle could still breakout with the new park
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8:03 |
: Im in a head to head points league where a lot of times it can be more advantageous to start SP’s that have RP eligibility than starting an actual closer in the RP slots. Wesneski, Roupp, Ben Brown and Liberatore are on the wire. How would you rank those 4?
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8:03 |
: Brown, Wesneski (2 starts in 2 weeks), Roupp ….. Liberatore
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8:04 |
: Manzardo was a high obp guy in minors. Playing vs lhp too. Are you expecting him to be productive in obp formats? Is this a hot streak or a young guy making adjustments?
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8:05 |
: Hot streak. A .500 BABIP and 50% HR/FB won’t last
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8:05 |
: Hanging on to PCA, so don’t talk me out of it. Also riding out Buxton’s few weeks of health. Drop either for Triple Crown candidate Wilyer?
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8:05 |
: I’d hold
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8:05 |
: Hi Jeff, Jose carballo was dropped last week I could use some speed def would like your recommendations on him and fabb price thanks
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8:06 |
: I think it’ll be minimal, 1% to 2% in mixed leagues
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8:06 |
: In a 16 teamer is Gabriel Arias a good fill-in for J-Ram?
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8:06 |
: Probably, not much for 3B on the wire
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8:06 |
: Drop Drake Baldwin for Dillon Dingler in a 15 tm lg?
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8:06 |
: No, give Balwin another week.
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8:07 |
: Thoughts on Doval as a spec add to see how the Walker injury plays out?
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8:07 |
: Worth a dart
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8:07 |
: is david hamilton a hold or drop?
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8:07 |
: Drop right now
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8:07 |
: Are all the Yankees going to get a million home runs with the torpedo bats? Will they ever be held to single digits again?
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8:08 |
: We’ll see, it’s just one series
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8:08 |
: I don’t think these guys made it into your (always essential) WW piece: Hayden Wesneski or Simeon Woods Richardson?
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8:09 |
: Both were highly rostered. Wesneski for sure with a nice upcoming schedule. I’m not a fan of Woods-Richardson and would not look to add him
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8:09 |
: Closer situation in sf ?
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8:09 |
: Walker once healthy
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8:09 |
: Kameron Misner or Jake Mangum worth more than a buck to ya in an al-only league?
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8:10 |
: Maybe, both would just be a fill-in
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8:10 |
: What to do with Willson Contreras? Too early to drop?
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8:10 |
: Yes, too early
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8:11 |
: Willi Castro or Story as a Trea replacement in case he doesnt play?
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8:11 |
: Castro
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8:11 |
: Where would Lourdes Gurriel rank in your waiver article?
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8:11 |
: At the top. He should be close to 100% rostered
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8:12 |
: Drop Bailey for Goodman? 5×5 obp
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8:12 |
: Yes
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8:12 |
: Droppable in S+H? I can get H without the ratio explosions
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8:13 |
: Hope the guy you pick up doesn’t explode.
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8:13 |
: How much FAAB (start out with 100) to throw at Kristian Campbell, Rice and Cam Smith in 12 team AL only 5×5 H2H league?
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8:14 |
: I’d expect each to go for over $50. Getting now would be huge compared to waiting for the trade deadline
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8:15 |
: Sipping Bulleit and a big ice cube. Building my own spreadsheet tool for a 12 team, NL only auction. May dog have mercy on my soul.
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8:15 |
: Prayers for you brother.
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8:15 |
: Wesneski over Civale going forward?
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8:15 |
: Today …yes
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8:16 |
: Are either of Griffin Conine or Dane Myers worth more than a min bid in 15 team roto?
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8:16 |
: No, not right now
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8:16 |
: Did not see Walker was hurt. Is it worth a spec add of Doval and do you think Grant Holmes is that expendable?
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8:16 |
: I saw it was his back and they expect him back soon, let check to see if the news has changed.
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8:17 |
: Could throw tomorrow
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8:18 |
: Hey Jeff, thanks for doing these chats! What % of FAAB would you throw at Luke Jackson in a 15 Team NFBC?
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8:18 |
: I think it’s in the $50 to $100 range. The one warning with Jackson is that he’s bad pitcher and could be out of the job next week.
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8:20 |
: Impressed with Boyd’s gem today? E Rod’s? It was quite a throwback game today.
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8:20 |
: I didn’t walk much, I was traveling for my son’s soccer match
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8:20 |
: Thoughts on this guy? How much out of $100 you sending on him? (AL Only)
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8:21 |
: 1% … I want to see more
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8:21 |
: Hi Jeff…. I’ve got to choose between picking up Leiter, Springs, Roupp or Burke
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8:21 |
: Springs
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8:21 |
: I have H Goodman and Tyler Stephenson in a 13 team, one catcher league. Am I safe to drop Stephenson?
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8:22 |
: You might just stream catchers in this league based on matchup. You have 18 options each week. Go with the best one.
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8:22 |
: % of FAAB would you spend in 12 teamer where Luzardo was on waivers?
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8:22 |
: 15%. Possibly more
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8:23 |
: Drop Baez and bid a couple FAAB on Walls in 12 team AL only 5×5 league?
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8:23 |
: You’re replacing one bad player with another bad player. Hold
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8:23 |
: Bench Depth… pickup Jake cronenworth or Joey Ortiz??
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8:24 |
: Ortiz for me
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8:24 |
: Do you try not to roster players that you have a hard time rooting for in real life ? (For say, social/political reasons, or if they’ve said or done something harmful or violent in the past?)
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8:25 |
: I have to once I starting putting my cash into the league. If someone feels it’s wrong to add them, I wouldn’t play in any cash league.
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8:25 |
: To accommodate 1 owner, we moved our Auction to next Saturday. Hurry up and wait….
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8:25 |
: Megill or AJSS?
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8:26 |
: Megill
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8:26 |
: Justin Martinez or Luke Jackson? Thanks.
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8:26 |
: This were it gets hard. I’d stay with Martinez but I feel this suggestion has about a 40% chance of being wrong.
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8:27 |
: Why did Gregory Soto for Baltimore go for over 100 in AL Tout? Can there really be that many chances to fill in for Bautista until he can go back to back and if so, is Soto clearly the guy?
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8:27 |
: Could just be an error by the manager.
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8:27 |
: Panic on Ober and the velo drop?
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8:28 |
: Maybe, I feel he’ll be over analyzed over the next few days.
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8:29 |
: That’s it for tonight. I need to look over my NFBC bids. See everyone next week.
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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Re Santana @7:54: he’s_next_up_behind_Bednar_who_is_struggling.gif