Streaming Hitters Today, 9/26/19

For my final post of the 2019 regular season, I leave you with another set of stackable recommendations.

Twins lefties vs Jordan Zimmermann @ DET

It’s hard to remember when Zimmermann was good, but ever since he joined the AL in 2016, his results have been horrid. Since his favorite secondary offering is his slider, it’s no surprise that he owns dramatic splits and has badly struggled against left-handed batters. He has allowed an incredible .416 wOBA against them and has struck out just 13.8% of lefties. His weak skills have resulted in a 5.23 xFIP. While he ain’t great against righties, he has been relatively league average, so there’s no rush to stack righties against him.

Giants righties vs Kyle Freeland @ SF

Freeland angered the luck Gods last season by dramatically outperforming his underlying skills and posting an ERA significantly below his SIERA. It was even more shocking considering he calls Coors Field home. All that luck ran out this year as expected, and Freeland is back to being an easy stack target. Against right-handed batters in away parks, Freeland has struck out just 15.4% of hitters, en route to a 5.05 xFIP. He has actually been pretty good against left-handers, so stacking here should strictly be limited to righties.

Rockies lefties vs Tyler Beede @ SF

Yes, it’s a risk to ever use Rockies on the road given the dramatic splits for some of them. But Beede has allowed a .351 wOBA against them, sports just a 5.9% K%-BB%, and has posted a 5.57 xFIP. The numbers are better at home, of course, but still qualify as bad.

Indians lefties vs Dylan Cease @ CHW

Cease has posted a poor 5.09 xFIP versus left-handers, but an inflated .380 wOBA against is driven by an absurd 23.7% HR/FB rate. There are several ways to look at that. First, the sample size is small, so we can’t possibly diagnose him with a severe case of gopheritis, and would expect it to decline. But second, Cease is a rookie, a top prospect, yes, but still a rookie. It’s certainly in the realm of possibility that the inflated HR/FB rate is telling us that he’s just not ready to be effective against batters of the opposite hand. Third and lastly, a 5.09 xFIP is bad anyway you look at it and that actually assumes a league average HR/FB rate. So even with that, the rest of his skills have been poor enough to make him well below average against lefties.

Athletics righties vs Felix Hernandez @ SEA

It’s sad that it’s gotten to the point in which King Felix is a stacking target, but it’s been this way since last year and things haven’t improved. Since Hernandez now sits in the upper 80s, his fastball isn’t good enough to induce swings and misses, and since his secondary pitches are primarily a changeup and curve ball, he’s had major issues against righties. Both those secondaries are typically used to neutralize opposite-handed hitters, so he’s got nothing against righties. This year, he has struck out just 15.8% of righties, while posting a 5.54 xFIP. He’s a good example of how important velocity is.