The Daily Grind: Finals Week Pt. 4: Split-Action Thin Thursday

Eleven games are on the docket, but only five are a part of the Thin Thursday evening slate. Who can come out on top?

AGENDA

  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  3. SaberSim Says…
  4. Bad Advices

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Joc Pederson’s double-donger helped push iamlee13 to victory last night. Jacob deGrom and several solid hitters rounded out the onslaught. Notably, he got away with Carlos Santana and Vladito zeroing out. Congrats and Leaderboard.

As mentioned, tonight we have a five-game contest on FantasyDraft.

2. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Early: The six-game afternoon slate kicks off at 12:35pm ET. You’ll probably have to play without lineups the the three west coast games. FantasyDraft isn’t even running a contest for it, so let’s look at some DraftKings prices.

Stephen Strasburg is top dog for $12,200. The Phillies are limping to the finish line, although at least a few of them (see Smyly, Drew) seem to have a chip on their shoulder(s). The Nationals are all clinched up, but they’re still playing for the right to host the Wild Card game. They’re only one game up on the Brewers. Jason Vargas is unlikely to pull a Smyly.

Clayton Kershaw ($11,100) is next best in what amount to a tune-up outing. I wish he were maybe $1,500 cheaper. Between his late-season struggles and the Dodgers lack of motivation to push him, Kershaw might be five and out today. Joey Lucchesi ($8,300) could hold his own against a very slightly lefty prone Dodgers offense.

The Reds are sending Luis Castillo ($10,200) to the bump for his final start. He’s an also-ran candidate in the NL Cy Young race (the top three candidates are all Nationals). The Brewers might submit a slightly less-than-maximized lineup since they clinched yesterday. However, they still have Wild Card home field advantage to win.

Mike Minor ($9,100) seems expensive for a pairing opposite the Red Sox. Just save up some money for Castillo or Strasburg.

A few of the value plays are attractive – namely random number generator Tyler Beede ($6,300) at home against the Rockies and Deven Smeltzer ($6,100) visiting the Tigers. Both pitchers are risks of throwing fewer than five innings.

Favorite Plays: Strasburg, Castillo, Beede, Smeltzer

Stack Targets: Vargas, Brian Johnson, Jordan Zimmermann

Late: The best pitchers are in the afternoon slate, although we have some viable options with which to work tonight. Top of the food chain is Sean Manaea ($20,400). The southpaw has pitched sharply in four starts this season. Personally, I’m torn. While I’m convinced this price tag is way too high, an easy matchup against the Mariners could turn out alright. I’m concerned by Manaea’s high fly ball and hard contact rates. His 1.14 ERA belies a 4.60 xFIP.

I feel better about Zack Wheeler ($19,400) in his final start prior to free agency. The Mets are now officially out of the postseason, but they don’t have any special reason to hide Wheeler from a full workload. It could be a hangover day of sorts for the New York lineup. Luckily, they face the Marlins.

Aaron Civale ($18,600) is still in the midst of a bruising pennant race. After losing a ridiculously winnable game yesterday, Cleveland probably needs to run the table to squeak into the playoffs. Civale typically supplies something approximately like a quality start. After a rough start to his major league career, Dylan Cease ($17,600) has started to tap into his upside outcomes on occasion. He recently had a 25-point outing versus the Indians. I still think he’s upwards of $3,000 overpriced, although I still might find a role for him in this tiny slate.

For some reason (hint: it’s recent performance), Jose Quintana ($14,600) costs less than Joe Musgrove ($15,400). While both sides of this matchup make for fine mid-tier targets, I prefer the Quintana end of the equation. The Pirates are weak against, well, everything. But especially left-handed pitchers. Quintana will probably bounce back from his recent woes. Musgrove has pitched well more often than not since mid-August. There’s some meltdown risk, but it’s modest.

Favorite Plays: Wheeler, Civale

Stack Targets: Jordan Yamamoto, Wade Miley, Felix Hernandez, Jaime Barria

Part of me wants to use Miley for the same reasons as Quintana – regression is likelier than not. In Miley’s case, it’s harder to peg what “regression” means in terms of directionality.

3. SaberSim Says…

Just looking at the night slate, Wheeler, Manaea, Musgrove, Cease, and Civale are the guys to use. However, value hunters may want to use Wheeler, Manaea, Barria, Musgrove, and Quintana. The top bats are Yordan Alvarez, Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Francisco Lindor, and Matt Chapman. On the bargain side, you’ll find Jack Mayfield, Ryan Flaherty, Lewis Brinson, Pablo Reyes, and Zack Collins. Ick.

4. Bad Advices

I gave the bad advices re: Greinke and his price.

I enjoy a good long inning from time to time.

Eugenio Suarez is trying to win the NL Home Run title.

But Pete Alonso won’t let him.





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

6 Comments
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Anon
4 years ago

Brewers still have the division title to chase. I would imagine they will be running out regulars the next 2 days at least. Somebody can correct me if I’m wrong, but I think the playoff team situation is as follows:
– Nothing to play for: Dodgers, Braves, Twins (& of course every other team eliminated already)
– Division: Cards, Brewers
– Home field: Astros, Yankees, Nats
– WC: A’s, Rays, Indians (& obviously these 3 are also battling for home field)

Twins could tie the Yankees but would lose the tiebreaker (Twins were 2-4 against teh Yanks this year) so they cannot pass the Yankees for home field.

Anon
4 years ago
Reply to  Anon

aaaaaand of course as soon as I post that, the Brewers lineup came out – no Braun, Moose or Cain (though Cain has been hitting so poorly that’s not a big loss). I will say, there is some justification for sitting Braun and Cain against Castillo so that isn’t all that out of the ordinary. Moose seems like a “just clinched” sit though.

Red Sox are also sitting Bogaerts, Devers and Betts. That’s not a particularly scary lineup without those 3.

stever20member
4 years ago
Reply to  Anon

wonder if this may be more day game after night game thing?

The one lineup that I think is going to be crazy is the Twins vs Tigers. A 1pm start after clinching last night, with no room to move up.

stever20member
4 years ago
Reply to  Anon

as far as your chart-
AL- Twins are locked into #3. Astros magic # vs Yankees is 2 right now for #1 seed. A’s Rays Indians in that 3 way battle for 2 slots
NL- Dodgers are locked into #1. Braves locked into #2. Cards/Brewers fighting for division and #3. Nats battling with both of those for #4.

So yeah your chart looks fine.