Streaming for Stolen Bases by Catcher

This week I am doing Part 2 of my ground-breaking, innovative, revolutionary, completely original piece from two weeks ago that no one has ever thought of before, but before I do I want to mention that it was pointed out to me that our very own Alex Chamberlain did some fantastic articles covering the exact same premise for DFS last season:

Streaming SBs by Opposing Pitcher

Stolen Base Streamers

So, maybe I am not as innovative as I thought I was. We shall push on either way. Once again, this is a work in progress and I have no idea if this will work and unfortunately I am still unable to get catcher POP times and pitcher delivery times. I assume, if there is a practical application for this, it will work best in leagues with daily transactions or DFS like as Alex wrote in his articles.

So, let’s look at the catcher’s who have allowed the most stolen bases this season. One slight change is I have added a column the table with stolen bases allowed per inning which was a suggestion given to me when talking with Alex.

Stolen Bases Allowed by Catcher
# Name Team Pos G GS Inn SB CS CS % SB/Inn
1 Jonathan Lucroy MIL C 54 52 462.1 34 24 41.38% 0.0736
2 Chris Iannetta SEA C 50 47 423 31 12 27.91% 0.0733
3 Russell Martin TOR C 53 48 430 31 5 13.89% 0.0721
4 Tucker Barnhart CIN C 41 41 361 29 16 35.56% 0.0803
5 Kevin Plawecki NYM C 37 34 305.2 28 10 26.32% 0.0917
6 Miguel Montero CHC C 32 29 257 27 2 6.90% 0.1051
7 Brian McCann NYY C 48 44 389 25 6 19.35% 0.0643
8 Tyler Flowers ATL C 36 31 284.2 23 2 8.00% 0.0809
9 Stephen Vogt OAK C 46 43 381 23 10 30.30% 0.0604
10 Derek Norris SDP C 50 50 430.1 23 12 34.29% 0.0535
11 Dioner Navarro CHW C 39 36 323 22 7 24.14% 0.0681
12 Hank Conger TBR C 31 24 206 21 6 22.22% 0.1019
13 Jarrod Saltalamacchia DET C 32 29 261.2 21 7 25.00% 0.0804
14 A.J. Pierzynski ATL C 34 32 282.1 21 7 25.00% 0.0744
15 Francisco Cervelli PIT C 46 46 394.2 21 9 30.00% 0.0533
16 Yadier Molina STL C 61 57 494.1 20 7 25.93% 0.0405
17 David Ross CHC C 32 27 246.1 19 9 32.14% 0.0772
18 Yasmani Grandal LAD C 39 35 313.1 19 8 29.63% 0.0607
19 Yan Gomes CLE C 48 45 398 18 9 33.33% 0.0452
20 Jason Castro HOU C 49 45 406.2 18 4 18.18% 0.0443
21 Cameron Rupp PHI C 38 38 333 17 5 22.73% 0.0511
22 Carlos Perez LAA C 44 42 372.2 17 12 41.38% 0.0457
23 J.T. Realmuto MIA C 53 50 449.2 17 14 45.16% 0.0378
24 Kurt Suzuki MIN C 41 39 333.1 16 6 27.27% 0.0480
25 Geovany Soto LAA C 18 17 149 15 6 28.57% 0.1007
26 Caleb Joseph BAL C 23 19 175 15 8 34.78% 0.0857
27 Tony Wolters COL C 27 26 227.2 15 7 31.82% 0.0660
28 Travis d’Arnaud NYM C 13 13 112.2 14 3 17.65% 0.1248
29 Rene Rivera NYM C 16 15 134 14 7 33.33% 0.1045
30 Trevor Brown SFG C 25 17 167.2 14 4 22.22% 0.0837
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=0&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=6,d

Now without having done this before, I want to make sure that I am not falling prey to too small of a sample size. So let’s look at the catchers that allowed the most SBs the last two seasons:

Stolen Bases Allowed by Catcher 2015
# Name Team Pos G GS Inn SB CS CS% SB/Inn
1 Francisco Cervelli PIT C 128 124 1099.2 101 29 22.31% 0.0919
2 Derek Norris SDP C 128 116 1040.2 84 44 34.38% 0.0808
3 Kurt Suzuki MIN C 130 123 1096 80 14 14.89% 0.0730
4 Miguel Montero CHC C 109 90 825 71 18 20.22% 0.0861
5 Jonathan Lucroy MIL C 86 86 745 70 27 27.84% 0.0940
6 A.J. Pierzynski ATL C 107 104 909.2 67 21 23.86% 0.0737
7 Salvador Perez KCR C 139 137 1192.1 66 29 30.53% 0.0554
8 Brayan Pena CIN C 86 84 754.1 58 13 18.31% 0.0769
9 Yasmani Grandal LAD C 107 100 884.1 56 23 29.11% 0.0633
10 Tyler Flowers CHW C 110 100 878.1 53 18 25.35% 0.0604
11 Nick Hundley COL C 102 100 866.1 50 26 34.21% 0.0577
12 Brian McCann NYY C 126 119 1042.1 50 28 35.90% 0.0480
13 David Ross CHC C 59 46 402.1 49 17 25.76% 0.1219
14 Carlos Ruiz PHI C 83 81 716 46 11 19.30% 0.0642
15 Chris Iannetta LAA C 85 80 718.2 44 15 25.42% 0.0613
16 Stephen Vogt OAK C 100 89 803 43 20 31.75% 0.0535
17 J.T. Realmuto MIA C 118 116 1025.1 43 16 27.12% 0.0419
18 Hank Conger HOU C 69 56 514.2 42 1 2.33% 0.0817
19 Jason Castro HOU C 103 102 883.1 42 24 36.36% 0.0476
20 Mike Zunino SEA C 112 101 919.2 42 22 34.38% 0.0457
21 Chris Stewart PIT C 52 36 372.2 41 13 24.07% 0.1102
22 Carlos Perez LAA C 80 75 665 41 25 37.88% 0.0617
23 James McCann DET C 112 103 943.1 41 28 40.58% 0.0435
24 Blake Swihart BOS C 83 78 688 41 16 28.07% 0.0596
25 Rene Rivera TBR C 107 87 784.2 40 23 36.51% 0.0510
26 Russell Martin TOR C 117 113 994 40 32 44.44% 0.0402
27 Buster Posey SFG C 106 103 901.2 39 22 36.07% 0.0433
28 Yan Gomes CLE C 91 90 800 39 19 32.76% 0.0488
29 Yadier Molina STL C 134 131 1149.2 37 26 41.27% 0.0322
30 Caleb Joseph BAL C 94 93 826.1 37 18 32.73% 0.0448
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=0&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d

Stolen Bases Allowed by Catcher 2015
# Name Team Pos G GS Inn SB CS CS% SB/Inn
1 Jonathan Lucroy MIL C 136 133 1182.1 83 29 25.89% 0.0702
2 Jason Castro HOU C 114 110 971 81 23 22.12% 0.0834
3 Carlos Ruiz PHI C 109 104 960 74 28 27.45% 0.0771
4 Jarrod Saltalamacchia MIA C 107 103 922.2 72 17 19.10% 0.0781
5 Alex Avila DET C 122 116 1017.2 71 36 33.64% 0.0698
6 Mike Zunino SEA C 130 125 1121 71 28 28.28% 0.0633
7 Yan Gomes CLE C 126 121 1082 66 31 31.96% 0.0610
8 Miguel Montero ARI C 131 130 1152 64 26 28.89% 0.0556
9 Kurt Suzuki MIN C 119 115 1017.2 64 21 24.71% 0.0629
10 Tyler Flowers CHW C 124 120 1052 62 26 29.55% 0.0589
11 Derek Norris OAK C 114 93 870.1 60 12 16.67% 0.0690
12 Russell Martin PIT C 107 106 940.2 59 37 38.54% 0.0628
13 Buster Posey SFG C 111 109 929.1 59 25 29.76% 0.0635
14 Dioner Navarro TOR C 112 102 907.1 58 15 20.55% 0.0639
15 Rene Rivera SDP C 89 85 734 58 33 36.26% 0.0790
16 Travis d’Arnaud NYM C 105 103 909 58 14 19.44% 0.0638
17 Hank Conger LAA C 79 70 637.1 57 18 24.00% 0.0895
18 Welington Castillo CHC C 106 103 916.1 57 28 32.94% 0.0622
19 Salvador Perez KCR C 146 143 1248.2 57 25 30.49% 0.0457
20 Evan Gattis ATL C 93 89 799 53 13 19.70% 0.0663
21 Devin Mesoraco CIN C 109 104 936.2 51 18 26.09% 0.0545
22 A.J. Pierzynski – – – C 87 80 721 50 11 18.03% 0.0693
23 John Baker CHC C 55 51 463 50 9 15.25% 0.1080
24 Brian McCann NYY C 108 101 889 49 29 37.18% 0.0551
25 Chris Iannetta LAA C 104 92 835.1 49 21 30.00% 0.0587
26 Yasmani Grandal SDP C 76 67 607.2 49 7 12.50% 0.0807
27 A.J. Ellis LAD C 92 89 773.2 48 16 25.00% 0.0621
28 Robinson Chirinos TEX C 91 88 784 44 29 39.73% 0.0561
29 Jose Molina TBR C 80 70 628.1 38 14 26.92% 0.0605
30 Wilin Rosario COL C 96 94 824 37 7 15.91% 0.0449
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=0&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d

The first thing I noticed with once reviewing this data is four names that appear in the Top 12 of each list: Jonathan Lucroy led the Majors in stolen bases allowed in 2014 and is on pace to do so again. Miguel Montero appears high upon all three lists as well Derek Norris. The surprising name in the Top 12 is Tyler Flowers. This surprises me because of his lack of innings this year in the time share in Atlanta, though maybe it shouldn’t considering his teammate A.J. Pierzynski is only a few slots below him and allowed the sixth most last season in MLB on the Braves.

The next thing I noticed was Yadier Molina’s name appearing as high as it did on the list. After speaking with Matt Thompson, a devout Cardinals homer and fellow fantasy analyst at FWFB, we believe his surgically repaired thumb from last year may be bothering him and has led to some defensive issues which are very uncharacteristic of him. This became very noticeable in the Cardinals recent series against the Giants; where defensive his miscues were rampant.

The last thing that struck me is when sorting by SB/Inn the names that jumped up to the top of the list were Travis d’Arnaud, Miguel Montero, Rene Rivera, and Hank Conger. Two Mets catchers being up there makes a ton of sense with Noah Syndergaard having ten more stolen bases allowed than the next pitcher in the majors (22) and Steven Matz being tied in third on that list (11). The Mets may be an interesting team to stream for stolen bases against rest of the way. Conger is renowned for being a poor catcher, so it is not surprising that he vaults to the top of that list. The Cubs are another team that may be a team to stream against considering that Montero is near the top of the list no matter how you sort it and Chicago has three of the top 25 pitchers that have allowed the most stolen bases this season in Jacob Arrieta (11), Kyle Hendricks (8), and Jon Lester (7).

So how do we apply this?

If we start with DFS, looking at today’s slate, one would like to think that the Mets catchers are the easiest to attack especially with Syndergaard on the mound. Thor starting tends to force DFS sites to lower the prices on opposing batters, so Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte are both undervalued at $4,200 on Draft Kings. The Cubs draw the Nationals in an early game, so a slightly depressed Bryce Harper ($4,600) and Anthony Rendon is $4,200 or which ever CF starts the game (both Michael Taylor and Ben Revere are $3,500.) are all interesting plays that can swipe a bag against either catcher. If you are playing the afternoon slate only, it may be better to look for cheap options in the Seattle/Tampa Bay game as long as Chris Iannetta and Hank Conger are each catching. Nori Aoki struggles against left-handed pitching but does have half his stolen bases against them this year and is only $3,400 on DK. However, the better options are probably on the Rays. Logan Morrison ($3,900) is tied with Brad Miller ($3,500) for second on the team with four stolen bases this year and both are particularly cheap today. Or we could always attempt to exploit Russell Martin’s poor caught stealing rate and add some underpriced Phillies, though with how Marco Estrada has pitched and how bad the Phillies are, I might avoid anyone except Odubel Herrera ($3,700).

In season long leagues, with daily transactions, I would look for under owned stolen base threats with good upcoming matchups. Atlanta has the Mets this weekend and SS Chase d’Arnaud may be filling in for injured shortstop Erick Aybar. He has two SBs in his last 15 days and is only 1% owned. Lucroy’s Brewers face the Dodgers this weekend and Howie Kendrick could be an interesting guy to target. He has two stolen bases, is only 12.3% owned in ESPN leagues and is eligible at multiple positions. They might be worth a stream in leagues where you are fishing for SBs.

Over the course of the rest of the season I will try and use these strategies to see if it helps my teams, especially in DFS and H2H formats. After the conclusion of the season, I will do a follow up article on how the implementation worked for my teams and look at the full-season data more closely to see if I see any usable trends.

 

We hoped you liked reading Streaming for Stolen Bases by Catcher by Justin Mason!

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Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as random topics that float into his juvenile brain. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, and a fantasy football and baseball writer for Fantasy Alarm. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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Konoldo
Member
Konoldo

Great idea in concept. These tables should be sorted by SB/Inn and all inferences should be based on that. Looking at total SB allowed is a nearly useless way to determine who to stream against.