Jake Lamb vs. Chip Hale & Left-Handed Pitching

While the Arizona Diamondbacks continue to trudge their way through a rather difficult 2016 campaign, there are at least a few success stories emerging out of the desert these days. Perhaps no story in the Southwest has had more success accompany it than that of Jake Lamb, who we’ve already discussed among the third base group on one occasion earlier this season. In that post, I listed Lamb as a “viable” option, a label which just feels like an absurd understatement and would lend itself to more disparagement than anything at this point, given what Lamb has turned in thus far in 2016.

His month of June hasn’t quite gotten off to what he may have envisioned after strong April and May stretches, but Lamb’s 2.1 WAR lands him ninth among qualifying players at the hot corner. That mark also happens to come in higher than the one he posted last year, in 148 less plate appearances. He’s reaching base at a rate that is 20 points higher than last year, with a .349 on-base percentage, despite a BABIP that is currently 43 points lower than his 2015 figure, at .301. Additionally, his wRC+ (131), wOBA (.372), and walk rate (11.2%) are all higher than last year. It’s been improvements across the board for Jake Lamb.

What has been most impressive about Lamb, though, has been the ability to make solid contact and generate the power that comes along with that. Lamb’s currently sporting a hard hit rate of 41.3%, which trails only Matt Carpenter among big league third basemen. His ISO, sitting at .264, ranks fifth among third sackers, behind only Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, and Carpenter. He can thank his new swing, coupled with a quality approach, for the uptick in power, specifically the home runs, where his dozen on the season represent twice as many as he had all of last year.

You’d be hard-pressed to find someone unimpressed with what Lamb has turned in at the plate this season. However, as apparent as his growth at the plate has been, his manager, Chip Hale, has still demonstrated a penchant for sheltering him against left-handed pitching. Lamb has 242 plate appearances on the season, but only 50 of those have come against southpaws. He’s both sat entirely and been lifted against lefty relievers, something that has resulted in Hale drawing the ire of Diamondback fans on more than one occasion. On the surface, it would appear that Hale is making the right decision in sitting his starting third basemen against left-handed pitching. However, with some of the peripheral trends and such a small sample actually existing against them, in addition to the way Lamb has swung the bat all year, it’s getting harder to justify sitting him in those situations.

Lamb is going for a slash of .146/.300/.390/.690 against lefties, compared to a .292/.365/.561/.926 set against right-handed pitching. His wRC+ against left-handed pitching slips to 86, whereas it’s up at 142 against righties. A paltry .111 BABIP against southpaws certainly hasn’t helped his case, especially because he’s actually walking more (16.0% vs. 9.9%), striking out at almost exactly the same rate (22.9% vs. 22.0%), and maintaining a still impressive .244 ISO against left-handed pitching.

Furthermore, his 33.3% Hard% against left-handed pitching would still land him near the top half of the third base group in his ability to make strong contact. However, that does represent about a 10% decrease from his rate against righty pitching and, subsequently, much of that gap has found its way toward soft contact, which he’s making 23.3% of the time. Also not working in his favor is a 60.0% groundball rate against left-handed pitching, which combined with the higher soft contact rate helps to explain the minuscule BABIP with which he’s working against lefties. Here’s what that distribution against each handedness looks like in more of a solidified visual:

What isn’t necessarily working in Lamb’s favor is the way in which left-handed pitchers are approaching him. The following represents the percentage of pitches in each part of the strike zone, as seen by Lamb vs. lefties:

As a result, Lamb has been far more likely to swing at pitches that are on the lower half of the zone against lefties than against righties. That is reflected in the following two heat maps, with the first one being his Swing% against left-handed pitching:

And against right-handed pitching:

Now is there enough here to declare a fundamental difference in his approach? Not necessarily. He covers the zone well against right-handed pitching, to the point where many of the same low pitches at which he swings against lefties are similar to those low pitches at which he swings vs. righties. It’s just a matter of the way in which left-handed pitchers are attacking him that likely leads to that inflation of his Swing% on pitches that are lower in the strike zone. Is that enough to rationalize sheltering Lamb against the southpaws? Not necessarily.

Especially because his actual Contact% vs. LHP is actually quite good, the minuscule sample size notwithstanding:

So the evidence for Lamb sitting against left-handed pitching becomes what, exactly? Outside of his average, largely the product of a poor BABIP and perhaps the groundball rate, it’s difficult to identify a real justification. And it’s easy to dismiss that batting average aspect because of the lack of overall plate appearances, both in 2016 and in his short career as a whole (108 PA vs. LHP). And while that GB% is quite high, it’s difficult to declare it a trend given the sample. He’s shown the ability to maintain a quality approach, while also making regular and solid contact. One would imagine this has to be reaching the point where he has to force the hand of his manager. Or at least one would hope.

The question that this all boils down to relates to whether or not Chip Hale is entirely justified in sitting or pulling Lamb in situations where he’d be facing a left-handed pitcher. And at this point, it’s hard to say that he is. The average is the most drastic split, and his BABIP would indicate that it isn’t a true reflection of his ability to hit left-handed pitching. He’s still making contact at a quality rate, even if a bit softer, against lefties. His walk and strikeout rate, along with his overall Swing%, would help to indicate that he’s still maintaining the same approach. Add in that leveled out swing, which should help to benefit him against left-handers, and it’s really difficult to justify Lamb continuing to sit vs. lefties. Ultimately, we haven’t seen enough of Jake Lamb vs. LHP in order to make a true assessment of his ability to hit them. And, as such, it continues to become more difficult for Chip Hale to rationalize leaving him out against them.

Should that happen, not only will Jake Lamb become that more attractive of a fantasy option at the hot corner, as the total package, but could generate buzz as a potential All Star out of the desert in the coming years.