Stream, Stream, Stream: #2xSP (9.28-10.4)

This is the last week of the season for #2xSP, and I just want to express my sincere gratitude to anyone still reading at this point in the season. It’s been a rocky one, but after two really solid seasons I guess it’s OK to go all Ricky Nolasco on the bit and throw up a clunker. Due to some (very) minor health reasons I’m taking a short winter hiatus, but I plan to be back in the saddle for opening day 2016. Be well, friends.

Here are the totals through week 23 (with updates from previous listing):

35-48 record (same)
4.66 ERA (-0.01)
7.1 K/9 (+0.1)
2.2 K/BB (-0.1)
1.41 WHIP (same)

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wRC+ in parentheses. Y! ownership numbers usually pulled courtesy of twitter pal @PandapPete21 (but not this week) whom you should give a follow:

LHP Daniel Norris – 6.4% ESPN – @TEX (96), @CWS (88)

I, like many others, have always loved Norris as a talent, and he’s been pretty good when he’s been healthy so far with the Tigers. ERA barely tells any of the story, and his 3.90 ERA in Motown is virtually the same as he had with the Jays (3.86), but he’s really cleaned up his rates if we’re going to compare the small-ish samplings (five starts with Toronto, six with Detroit). The strikeout rate is roughly the same and around the the league average, but Norris has walked one-third as many batters (by per nine rates) as he did with the Jays. Three of his six starts with Detroit have resulted in zero or one earned runs, and two of the other three were three runs apiece. The most worrisome thing here is durability, as he’s failed to pitch through the sixth in four of six starts. Mind you, the pickings were pretty slim this week as teams have been shutting players down and dipping deep into their 40-man bags of tricks to get creative this September. Should Norris see the back end of this week — and I expect that he will — you should be thusly rewarded.

RHP Jake Peavy – 28.4% ESPN – v. LAD (106), v. COL (84)

With Peavy and Ray I’ve taken an exploitative stance against the Rockies, who are absolutely terrible outside of Coors Field. Nobody has a worse road wRC+ than the Rockies at 74; in fact, the next worst team (Minnesota) is a full five points higher. As has been the case of this column’s three-year run, you usually have to give on one end of the week to get. The Dodgers are baseball’s No. 3 road offense with a 102 wRC+ (tied with the Yankees), so the hope here is the grizzled Peavy can gut it out against Los Angeles before cleaning up on the Rockies. Peavy’s had a really nice September as well: 2.19 ERA, 19-3 K/BB ratio and .575 OPS against over 24.2 innings.

RHP Robbie Ray – 8.3% ESPN- v. COL (84), v. HOU (102)

I feel like Ray has super secretly been pretty good. He’s been a two-win pitcher over 21 starts (117.1 innings) with good rates outside of somewhat spotty control. He’s fanning 8.3 batters per nine, and he’s just a touch under league average as it correlates to groundball rates. He’s not particularly home run prone — it helps to be a lefty in that home park — and he doesn’t have any blatantly obvious platoon splits (.316/.314 wOBA against for LHH/RHH). Lefties have shown more power against him (.420 slugging) most likely due to home park (.469 slugging overall at Chase Field), while righties have about the same isolated power but a much lower batting average (.236). Ray has been very good in September as well, holding opponents to a .286 wOBA with a 2.61 ERA and opponents’ triple-slash line of .203/.326/.301. A huge groundball spike in the second half (50.8 percent after just 34 percent in the first) could be in play here.

Also considered: Tanner Roark and Miguel Gonzalez.