Stream, Stream, Stream: #2xSP (5.25-5.31)
It’s time to play with fire. After this brutal of a start, it’s all we’re left with. I mean I think it’s been an especially difficult year to select two-start guys, especially since I think there have been some slumping aces and it has left the secondary tiers beaten down a bit, but I still can’t excuse this horsesh** performance.
Here are the totals through half of week six:
4-20 record
6.61 ERA
6.3 K/9
2.0 K/BB
1.56 WHIP
Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses. Y! ownership numbers pulled courtesy of twitter pal @PandaPete21, whom you should give a follow:
RHP Jesse Hahn – 9% ESPN/26% Y! – v. DET (.336), v. NYY (.315)
Hahn’s numbers have been a bit troubling this year, but he seems to have rebounded a bit from a two-start rough patch earlier in the month. He’s fanned 11 batters over his last two starts, and is hopefully picking up some steam to get back to where he was earlier this season with a sub-3.00 ERA. The one troubling thing about Hahn’s pitch metrics is that his curveball seems to have fallen off the planet this season. Last year he threw 361 curveballs with a whiff rate of 18.3 percent; this year, he’s thrown 147 but is generating a swing and miss just 10.2 percent of the time. It’s been a better pitch outcomes wise (.456 OPS to .667 OPS), but would seem to be a big part of the reason he’s seen a drop in K/9 from last year (8.6) to this (6.2). His fastball has gotten pasted too (.917 OPS after last year’s .540), and it would seem to stand to reason one affects the other. I still believe in the arm — I have to especially this week — but he’ll need to reverse some trends to me anything more than a here and there option.
RHP Jesse Chavez – 34.7% ESPN/38% Y! – v. DET (.336), v. NYY (.315)
Not only are we going Jesse crazy this week, but we’ll stack A’s in an attempt to get back on track. The A’s have lost five of Chavez’ six starts, but that hardly seems to be the fault of the 31-year-old righty. In those six starts, Chavez has put together a 32-12 K/BB ratio, 3.41 ERA and an opponents’ batting line of .221/.282/.309. That’s all I need to see to give him the recommendation this week, so I look forward to seeing his season totally blow up over the next week since that’s the business we’re in this season.
RHP Ricky Nolasco – 1.9% ESPN/1% Y! – v. BOS (.301), v. TOR (.331)
Has it really come to this? Has it come to recommending Nolasco, which is now a swear word in 60 percent of Twin Cities households with children under the age of 10? Nolasco has inexplicably won his last four starts, and in that span has lowered his ERA from 18.00 to 6.00. He hasn’t completed six innings in any of those starts, but the numbers are shockingly not that terrible. Well, some of the numbers. He’s got a 4.29 ERA and 20-6 K/BB rate in 21 innings, but he’s also allowed an opponents’ line of .326/.368/.442. Look, it’s this or Joe Kelly (Nolasco’s Monday opponent), or Mat Latos. I’m not any happier about this than you are.
In addition to Rotographs, Warne writes about the Minnesota Twins for The Athletic and is a sportswriter for Sportradar U.S. in downtown Minneapolis. Follow him on Twitter @Brandon_Warne, or feel free to email him to do podcasts or for any old reason at brandon.r.warne@gmail-dot-com
why not go with phelps? low ownership I think and great matchups
Whoa Warne! I’ve got enough faith to let Jesse wrangle with the lefty loaded Yanks. But that 2nd start vs the Tigers??? Hoo boy. He’s 0-3 with a 9.90 ERA against them and is matched against Price? Have you really thought this through enough for me to blindly follow?
what he said!
Hey guys, thanks for the comments and sorry for the late answer. I had seen some improvement out of Hahn’s curve over the last few starts, and was hoping it would be something that would propel him to greater heights. I really bought into how well he pitched last year, and was hoping it was a bit of an aberration how he’d started. I guess we’re 1-for-2 this week. We’ll see if it holds up. Thanks for reading, guys.
Let’s hope you blindly followed, right?
I literally laughed out loud when you said that line about Nolasco. Scarily enough, I’d rather buy a short stream of Pelfrey than Nolasco….and this is coming from a Pelfrey detractor.
I hear you. I just don’t trust Pelfrey to keep it up. I’ve been banging the “Pelfrey to the pen” drum since late 2013 — I have a column to prove it — but as long as he keeps pitching alright, they’ll keep trotting him out there. I’m not convinced he’s better than Milone even, to be honest.
I’m throwing out 2-starts by Shoemaker, Brett Anderson, and Roenis Elias in a 12-team, QS-league. Do you strongly prefer Happ or Hahn over any of those 3?
Might have gone Hahn over Elias. Sorry I answered too late. Like Shoemaker (relatively speaking) and Anderson is showing me something so far this year, too.
Here are three significantly better streamers, for readers who who feel taking advice from has demonstrated little skill in the “art” of streaming. These guys will out-perform Brandon Warne’s, and it won’t be particularly close.Or, go with Warne’s suggestions, which include Jesse Hahn, posed against two of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, one of which takes place in the hitter’s haven that is New Yankee Stadium. Watch the likes of Teixeira, McCann and Headley play peppepr with the left field seats. Perhaps, if the “expert,” who penned this lazy scribe, the one who has led his loyal readers astray ‘Into the valley of Death’ in the form of a 4-20 record, a 6.61 ERA….I could go on, but I won’t, because this comment wasn’t intended to belittle any individuals with the production of these articles, but rather, to provide readers with some alternatives that might lessen the likely irrevocable damage inclucted upon your pitching statistics. But really, who’s to blame the author? If week after week you watched in horror as the streamers recommended within these writings got slaughtered at an almost impossible to comprehend clip, did the sorts of reserarch as rudimentary as reading material from the very site that employs him, he would know that Yankee Stadium is the second-best park for left-handed-HRS and they 79.5% of the contact yielded by Hahn is either pulled or hit to center.
Here are three reasonably-well-thought-out streamers that I happened to gran on the wire from one of my leagues in which a drudge of injuries have forced me into streaming 3-4 SPs per week. Notice, my list lacks the name Ricky Nolasco (I’m sorry but that’s just piss-poor!).
1. Brett Anderson vs ATL, and @STL
2. Charlie Morton vs MIA, @MIL
3. Roenis Elías @TB, @CLE
I’m certainly not here to chant SCOREBOARD or anything, mainly because my season figures haven’t earned that right, but a couple things here:
1. My track record has been pretty good:
2013: 3.77 ERA
2014: 3.76 ERA
2. Nolasco and Hahn both had really nice starts today.
Nolasco: 7.2 innings, 2 ER, 5 K/0 BB, win
Hahn: CGSHO, 4 hits, 5 K/ 1 BB, win
Furthermore, your starters had nice days yesterday too. Kudos.