Steven Moya: The Good, the Good and the Ugly

Steven Moya is not exactly a household name in fantasy baseball. He didn’t make any top 100 prospect lists going into the 2014 season, but the 22-year-old has garnered some recent attention. In AA, he hit 35 home runs this past season and five additional ones in the Arizona Fall league. People are always looking for power, but is Moya an option to consider going into 2015? I will look at three items to consider when contemplating his fantasy value.

Good

Moya started getting attention last season and made our own Marc Hulet’s top 10 Tiger prospects and right now he is the top Tigers prospect according to Baseball America after the Tiger’s traded Devon Travis to the Blue Jays. Moya is a free swinging slugger with little plate discipline. When he did hit the ball, he put a charge in it with the 35 home runs, .280 ISO and an .327 BABIP.

I asked our prospect guru Kiley McDaniel if all of Moya’s power was from selling out for home runs or could he hit enough line drives for a .250 MLB AVG.

There’s a chance that happens. It’s easy 70 raw power and maybe more in BP. I saw him hit a couple HRs and 2Bs in the AFL that weren’t even high effort swings, just flicking his wrists, covers the plate really well. Haven’t seen him enough to have a detailed projection but I think there’s a chance to be a 45-50 bat with 20+ HR game power.

Besides just the power, he stole 21 bases during the season including the AFL. He is a nice power speed combo player which is desirable in fantasy baseball.

Good

Moya has more of my attention because he plays in the outfield. When looking for prospects to target, I always take into account if they are a fourth/prospect outfielders. With three outfield spots, the chances of a player being hurt or having subpar production is three times that of other positions.

Currently the Tigers website has Moya, along with Tyler Collins and Daniel Fields, as the backup outfield options to J.D. Martinez, Anthony Gose and Rajai Davis. None of the outfielder starters have been productive for multiple seasons. It would not surprise me one bit to see one or more of them fail to be productive this season. Moya and his home runs could be that replacement. Since he just needs one to fail, his chances of getting playing time is higher than if he played another position.

Ugly

In 549 plate appearances in AA, he only walked 4% of the time with a 29% K%. His plate discipline is atrocious. Chris St. John previous looked at how often highly touted prospects succeed knowing their strikeout and walk rates. While Moya has not officially made any top 100 prospect lists, he may be close in 2015 since he is now the Tigers top guy. Here are the chances of Moya being a productive hitter, average hitter or bust (explanation of the categories are in St. John’s article) when looking at his plate discipline values at each level and year so far in his career.

Historical bust rates have the chance of Moya flaming out around 80% with a 10% chance of being each an average or productive player. While the chances of him being an everyday player are slim, there still is a chance.

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Steven Moya is on the outside looking in for a chance to be in Detroit’s outfield. He has the tools to possibly be a productive power-speed fantasy option if given the opportunity. The biggest obstacle for him making it in the majors is his high strikeout and low walk rate. I really don’t see these ever improving. Instead, he will need to continue making hard contact and trust the BABIP fairy is on his side.