Aging Free Swingers (Josh Hamilton vs. Mark Trumbo)

Last year, Mark Trumbo was worth just short of a buck by our end-of-season values. Josh Hamilton cost his owners three cents. They are both free-swingers coming off bad seasons. That is the premise for this article. Flimsy, yes. But it’s happening.

There have been worse premises to articles. At least both Trumbo and Hamilton are both power hitters with flawed approaches coming off of injury-riddled seasons. That makes them somewhat similar. They both accrued about 350 plate appearances! Their projections are a bit different, though:

A lot of this probably has a lot to do with the fact that Josh Hamilton will turn 34 next year. Mark Trumbo will turn 29. You want to bet on a bounce-back from the younger guy.

Two questions arise from putting these two next to each other. Should Hamilton and his aging actually turn us off from Trumbo in 2015 and beyond? Or should Hamilton be a better value next year considering he should cost much less?

They probably won’t cost the same amount next year because most of us are capable of adding on our fingers to the point where we know Trumbo is younger than Hamilton. And in terms of career arcs, Hamilton’s has been turning us off for longer than Trumbo’s. It is that arc, predicated perhaps on the fact that both reach at pitches outside the of the strike zone more than others, that may make us nervous about Trumbo.

Trumbo (39.6%) actually has a worse career reach rate than Hamilton (38.8%)! That’s by Baseball Info Solutions’ numbers, though, which have changed a bit over time. PITCHf/x numbers have stayed steadier over time, and those have Hamilton a little worse than Trumbo, as you might expect. But they are in each other’s cohort when it comes to reaching. And their strikeout rates and power numbers are similar, too. Could their shared inclination to reach suggest that Trumbo will age poorly?

Doesn’t look like it. Look at this aging curve (thanks to Jeff Zimmerman) for above-average reachers versus below-average reachers. Guys that reach don’t age worse. They may age better?

The fact remains that Trumbo will cost much more, even at a discount. But maybe this graph can help us re-evaluate the aging patterns for the free-swinger. Maybe they don’t age worse.

In a weird way, that might be an argument for a small investment in Josh Hamilton next year. Considering Collin Cowgill and Grant Green are the backup plans, the Angels need Hamilton to be a full time player. His projection has him putting up something similar to the .244/22/4 that made Khris Davis an $11 top-40 outfielder. A dollar spent on Hamilton on a depth piece might be worth ten more by the end of the season.

If it doesn’t happen, it doesn’t look like it will be because Hamilton is a free swinger.