Steamer vs NFBC ADP – Home Run Bargains

Last week, I uncovered potential undervalued speedsters by comparing the Steamer projections to the current NFBC ADP. Today, I will go through a similar exercise for power.

In 2018, just three players launched at least 40 round trippers (K Davis 48, J.D. Martinez 43, J Gallo 40). Eleven additional players smacked at least 35 dingers, and all together there were 25 players who amassed at least 30 homeruns. Let’s dive into the players with a HR projection of 25+.

For these draft value comparisons, I match:

• The player ranks as computed by the FanGraphs Auction Calculator with Steamer projections (standard NFBC 15 team roto league settings).
• The current NFBC ADP (of Draft Championship leagues from December 15, 2018 to present).

Below are the players selected within the top 30 ADP, who also have a Steamer projection of at least 25 HRs:

The first key item to note is that this list comprises 19 out of the possible 30 players. Additionally, there are a few pitchers selected in the first two rounds – 8 of them to be exact. That leaves only 3 players who are currently being selected in the first two rounds of the NFBC who do not have a 25+ HR projection (T Turner 16, J Altuve 17, W Merrifield 10). Without grabbing at least one of the 19 players listed above, you certainly will have to make up the power later in the draft.

Below are all of the remaining players in the draft pool with a Steamer projection of at least 25 HRs:

The players above are ordered by their difference in Steamer Hitter Rank versus ADP Hitter Rank. Differences highlighted in GREEN are the players who are going later than their Steamer values indicate that they should; differences in RED show the overvalued players.

There are some excellent power sources this year who appear as undervalued. Observing the rightmost column (“Diff”), you will see more positive values than negative ones. This is the reverse result of my earlier speedster analysis, which had far more players in the RED.

As evidenced, there are a number of “power hitters” exhibiting excellent value in both the ADP 105-120 range (8^th round), as well as in the ADP 210-225 range (15^th round). Drafters should be aware that power “hotspots” occur in those ranges this year.

I want to introduce the term hotspot – to denote a portion of the draft/auction where you may find a cluster of undervalued players – for a certain position or [in this case] statistic that you are looking to acquire.

In this case, we would say that hotspots for power occur in the 8^th and 15^th rounds of the draft. We can expect one of Grichuk/Schwarber/Sano/Smoak to be available in the 15^th round – with each having an expected HR total of 25+. One or two of those players might be taken early … or some may last longer. But with four of them located within the hotspot, there is a good chance that at least one will be available – and at that opportunity cost, they are all undervalued.

Let’s now highlight a few players on our potential power bargains list:

Randal Grichuk (Steamer Hitter Rank: 70, ADP Hitter Rank: 143, Overall ADP: 233)

Grichuk sits atop the bargain power list. Steamer identifies him to be a player going many rounds later than he should. The projections have Randal as the 70^th best hitter, yet NFBC players are drafting an average of 73 other hitters instead of him.

Why?

The right-handed power-minded hitter is slated to bat in the heart of the Toronto order to start the season. Grichuk only had 426 plate appearances last year, but he should shatter that in ’19. The typically over-zealous FanGraphs Fans have crowdsourced 600+ plate appearances. In under 500 PAs, Grichuk has hit at least 22 HRs in each of the last 3 seasons, including 25 homers just last year. Scaling that to Steamer’s more conservative 531 PAs, would be a pace of ~29 HRs.

There is also nothing in his batted ball profile to suggest otherwise.

His HR/FB% appears to be fairly stable, his FB rate is ticking up, and his GB rate has a slight downward tick. Nothing here suggests that his power will be in question.

Plus, last year it appears that he was injured early on in the season – yet he mashed 15 of his 25 HRs in the 2^nd half alone.

I am on fully board with Grichuk as an absolute steal for 2019, with 30+ homer potential. He is currently going in the 15^th round.

Nelson Cruz (Steamer Hitter Rank: 31, ADP Hitter Rank: 70, Overall ADP: 113)

I don’t want to spend a lot of time talking about Cruz, but he’s worth mentioning. At age 38, we already know who he is and what he can accomplish on the diamond. He has had 5 straight seasons of 37+ HR. The only question is … health. Last year he had a number of minor injuries pop up, so one can worry if he will finally hit a wall.

To that extent, Cruz is a playing time risk play – which needs to be factored into his price. The NFBC drafters have seemingly discounted his price greatly, effectively incorporating a large amount of risk in to his price – as he has an 8^th round ADP. Steamer thinks it’s a bit too much.

Joey Gallo (Steamer Hitter: 40, ADP Hitter: 72, Overall ADP: 117)

Is Joey Gallo the new Adam Dunn lite?

What I mean by that of course, is that Gallo is close to the definition of a “three true outcomes” player; each time he comes to the plate he either walks, homers or strikes out.

In terms of fantasy – he is an immensely stable player to project … you know what you are getting. 90+ RBIs, ~40 HRs, and a .200-.210 batting average is his norm.

His upside? 40 HRs, 100+ RBI with a .250 batting average … which would be doable with either a few more line drives [and he is trending with 17%->18%->21% in the past 3 years], or a little BABIP luck. Adam Dunn used to bounce around between a .235 BA and a .265 BA in his prime, so it’s possible that Gallo could gain a few points of average as well.

Even if he doesn’t jump to a .250 level, he is still a relative bargain at his current market price. If your team can handle a batting average flirting close to the Mendoza line, 40 HRs and 90+ RBI are waiting for you in the 8^th round.

Jose Abreu (Steamer Hitter: 33, ADP Hitter: 51, Overall ADP: 85)

Jose Abreu isn’t located in one of our power “hotposts” above. However, he is worth considering. Abreu has been a more than solid contributor in the 4 seasons prior to ’18. He hit 25+ homers, 100+ RBI and batted .290+ throughout that span. Even in his down year this past season, he still managed to amass 22 home runs.

I spoke about Abreu on a recent episode of the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational Podcast. His batted ball profile (shown above) looks largely stable. It is possible that his 2018 down season can be partially attributed to injury (groin, thigh). Abreu was also somewhat unlucky in ‘18, posting a career low BABIP.

A small bounce back for him would be profitable for those selecting him at his current ADP of 85. A full recovery would be profit city. Unless injured, he may be well worth the low risk gamble in ’19 drafts.