Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 1/29/2019

We chatted about keeper choices and keeper decisions and keeper strategies. And keepers. Ottoneu keepers too. Read about ’em in the transcript.

4:00
Brad Johnson: Hello all. We’ll get started in a few moments.

4:01
Purple Mays Haze: When will your dynasty ADP come out?

4:01
Brad Johnson: I’m hoping to get a few more to add soon. Right now it’s basically just two leagues in the sample.

4:01
Brad Johnson: So, I’m in a bit of a holding pattern. Might find time to whip a first run together over the weekend.

4:02
TRANE: Hello sir, 20 team dynasty 17th (last) spot goes too… F Peralta, M Boyd, W Calhoun, or L Voit?  Trade Bait + Value next year

4:03
Brad Johnson: I’m voting Voit. You’ll get your answer fairly quickly. Peralta and Calhoun could take years to actualize – if ever

4:04
Brad Johnson: Voit could turn out to be a monster. And he has a top 200 ADP unlike the others listed here.

4:04
Vic: Please rank in value for the next 5 years….Odor, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada.

4:04
Brad Johnson: I think Anderson is running out of time as an unimpeded regular

4:05
Brad Johnson: I’d vote Odor – Moncada then a big gulf to Anderson

4:05
Brad Johnson: As for 2019 alone, I prefer Anderson to Moncada. In case anyone was wondering

4:06
tacopocket: hey brad.   you helped me last week with a trade but the guy countered so i wanted to get your opinion.  5X5 12 man auction league ($300).   i offered $31 yelich for $5 mondesi and $10 hoskins.  He countered with mondesi and $8 suarez.  Do i take that or hold out for hoskins?

4:07
Brad Johnson: I think that’s a comparable valuation. Hoskins=Suarez passes a smell test. It kind of depends on what you need though. Holding Yelich is a perfectly fine consolation.

4:07
RAP: In FG Pts, $8 Aguilar and $3 O’Hearn both good keepable prices as a 1B platoon?

4:07
Brad Johnson: Yes, I like it.

4:08
rpo: In Ottoneu Points, do you keep in mind balance for your roster at all? Would you be comfortable spending 75-80% on either hitting?

4:08
Brad Johnson: It depends on the state of my roster really

4:08
Brad Johnson: If you inherit a dumpster fire, just load up on elite talent based on available opportunities

4:09
Brad Johnson: That could easily push you in an all hitter direction

4:10
Brad Johnson: I think I said this last week, I’ve won with $250+ spent on pitching. I’ve won with ~$70 spent on pitching. There are ways to make a wide variety of deployments work.

4:10
Brad Johnson: Winning is always partially about the luck of the draw.

4:10
808: One more question Ottoneu FG points. I’ve got a need for 2b, and there isn’t much on the free agent market. Should I trade my $52 Mookie straight up for a $42 Jose Ramirez? Or should I try to get another player as well..?

4:10
Brad Johnson: Doesn’t hurt to ask for a little more juice. I also wouldn’t worry about 2B. There are so many players in the 4.5 pts/g and up bucket. Some of them will be free.

4:11
Brad Johnson: In recent seasons, I’ve found I naturally accrue 2B through no special effort of my own

4:11
Brad Johnson: So I’ll trade ’em away as often as possible.

4:12
Vic: Please help me choose my 2nd round pick in a 15 team straight draft. It’s down to Freeman, Stanton, Goldy, Benentendi, and Charlie

4:12
Brad Johnson: Goldy or Freeman

4:12
Brad Johnson: I like Goldy more personally, but they’re basically even by the projections

4:13
Win later?: How would you adjust your auction calculator values for a start up dynasty where, after the draft, players become keepable forever at no cost? I’m thinking I’ll build for years 2-3 on at the expense of the first year. I’m trying to not let my personal biases dictate my values. Ideas? Thanks in advance!

4:13
Brad Johnson: That does seem to be approach

4:13
Brad Johnson: You’re going to find two popular approaches if your opponents have half a brain between them.

4:14
Brad Johnson: 1. Spend an assload on a few premium players then settle for a bunch of scraps

4:14
Brad Johnson: 2. Spend all budget on the top 50 or so hitting prospects

4:15
Brad Johnson: These are undoubtedly the “best” strategies, but if they’re too popular it could become hard to compete

4:15
Brad Johnson: A hidden third strategy is to acquire older veterans at way under-value contracts. This only works if nearly all teams commit to plans 1 and 2.

4:16
Brad Johnson: If you want to dead set on one strategy, Plan 2 is perhaps most likely to be viable. Personally, I think you have to be mindful of all your options and decide on a path after the first round of nominations

4:17
Brad Johnson: If you pay attention, you should have a good idea of who is attempting which strategy.

4:17
Brad Johnson: If you opt for the third strategy, make sure you nominate the Daniel Murphys and Matt Carpenters ASAP before people realize they’re sitting on too much budget

4:18
Mike: Ottoneu 5×5 – thinking Blackmon 48$ , what is your opinion?

4:18
Brad Johnson: In a vacuum, overpriced but keepable. I differ from others in that my first priority is keeping as many elite players as possible, even if some of the individual values are bad.

4:18
Brad Johnson: I always assume there are zero elite players available to me in the draft

4:19
Brad Johnson: This also usually turns out to be mostly true.

4:19
Brad Johnson: Occasionally I’ll miss a value

4:19
Brad Johnson: Getting back to Blackmon, keep him if he’s not preventing you from hanging on to better players.

4:20
Brad Johnson: I’d prefer an $80 Trout to $48 Blackmon for example.

4:20
808: Would you keep a $10 Didi in Otto Points despite his injury?

4:20
Brad Johnson: See the last response – it’s a matter of managing opportunity cost

4:21
Brad Johnson: SS is an easy position to fill with $10 of budget and Didi only has one month of better-than-bland production

4:21
Brad Johnson: If you have a ton of spare budget space, you might as well use it.

4:21
Dave Cameron: ever played in a league where in addition to the normal player pool, you’ve had say 5-10 historically great player seasons available at auction as well? It is a format I’ve wanted to play around with, but is kind of radical so hard to get 10-12 people on board. But it would be interesting to me to see how much of a regular $260 budget someone would pay, not just for the great stats, but the certainty of those stats. Like, Ty Cobb’s 1911 where he hit .420/8/147/127/83. Or Ruth’s 1921 with .378/59/177/171/17. Objectively, probably worth $70+ at auction, but will make it interesting to fill out the rest of your roster.

4:22
Brad Johnson: I’ve seen this post before… 🙂

4:22
Brad Johnson: I’d pay $200 to get Ruth and Cobb.

4:23
Brad Johnson: For a 10 or 12 team league, I’m confident I can make the rest work off waivers

4:23
Pie Eaton Contest: Keeping Vladito and KB with only 3B and 2 Util spots, so can effectively only play 3 3B at any time. Do you downgrade other 3b during the draft due to lineup inflexibility, or just draft best available and figure it out later

4:23
Brad Johnson: I probably downgrade after the third one

4:24
Brad Johnson: The population of 3B is large so you can’t create scarcity by rostering too many

4:24
JD: what do you think of kyle freeland in FGpts? I know that last year was a huge step forward, but is he worth betting on going forward? I have him at $8 and a strong staff, so feel like he is a worthwhile gamble where I could cut quickly if he starts slow.

4:25
Brad Johnson: I think around $5-$10 is where I’d draw the line. I had a $3 share and gladly included it in part of a swap for $51 Max Scherezer (yesterday)

4:25
Sabean’s Goatee: $60 kershaw keepable in 5×5 otto? Assume most premium pitching is kept… also keeping cheap Corbin

4:25
Brad Johnson: Kershaw’s only keepable if you’re sitting on a lot of spare payroll. Even then, you may want to try redrafting him

4:25
Tallulah Trebuchet: Keep or cut a $3 Jace Fry in Ottoneu 5×5?

4:25
Brad Johnson: Cut for me.

4:25
Brad Johnson: $1 reliever bucket

4:26
Paul Sporer’s Dog: Ohtani is just DH’ing this year right?  They’ve ruled out he pitches entirely?

4:26
Brad Johnson: Correct

4:26
Brad Johnson: He’s a very good hitter though.

4:26
Just A Dude: Is Ty Blach the type that’s worth a $3 flier or just cut and try to buy back for $1?

4:26
Brad Johnson: I’m not sure he’s a $1 player tbh

4:26
Brad Johnson: More like a watchlist guy

4:26
Rick Vaughn: Does it still hold true in general to target NL SP over AL SP for fantasy b/c offense is more explosive with the DH? Have there been any recent studies to bear this out.

4:26
Brad Johnson: All else equal, sure. But all else is never equal

4:27
Brad Johnson: It’s usually already baked into our perceptions of the player

4:27
Brad Johnson: And pitchers on certain AL teams i.e. the Indians get a huge boost from being in that particular segment of the AL.

4:27
GoPitt: Brad, where are you ranking Victor Robles among the OF ranks?

4:28
Brad Johnson: Very high.

4:28
Brad Johnson: I don’t have specific OF rankings, but I did rank him 8th among CFers yesterday.

4:29
Brad Johnson: And I think that would put him around top 20 OFers.

4:29
Brad Johnson: Despite scouts always whining about corner outfielders needing more bat, there’s only like 6 corner OF bats I’d put ahead of the top 8 CF

4:30
JD: Victor Robles FGpts vs 5×5. Know he’s significantly more attractive in 5×5 bc of the speed, but how does his offense profile in FGp?

4:30
Brad Johnson: Still a strong profile in FGpts. Should be easy 5 pts/g with tons of brand value baked in

4:31
Brad Johnson: I usually try to get 5 pts/g for $1, but if you can also trade the guy later for a trio of $50 studs, I’ll pay a lot more.

4:31
LAA: How much do you think Ohtani is worth in FGPts as a hitter alone this year?

4:31
Brad Johnson: This is just me spitballing – I’d say $20 as a floor.

4:32
Brad Johnson: You can keep those $35 shares pretty comfortably

4:32
Guest: Robles a star in points leagues too? Him at 5 or Conforto at 14?

4:32
Brad Johnson: Oh boy, I like the value on Conforto there. Especially if it’s a shallow daily moves league where you can avoid LHP.

4:33
Ryan: FGPts – was offered $18 Khris Davis for $6 Pham- would you accept?

4:33
Brad Johnson: I prefer Pham

4:33
Brad Johnson: Straight up, not even considering cost

4:33
Brad Johnson: One of these years, we’re going to look at Khrush and wonder how he was ever a MLB player. He’s so max effort. Any loss of talent is going to be… uh… crushing.

4:34
Phanatic: Chances that Rhys Hoskins enters the Goldschmidt, Freeman, Rizzo Elite 1B club this year? His numbers last 4 months really took a jump…

4:34
Brad Johnson: Pretty low imo

4:34
Brad Johnson: 15%? 20%?

4:34
Brad Johnson: Those are blind guesses.

4:34
Brad Johnson: Not ruling it out, but I think he is what he is

4:34
Carl: In a vacuum: Stanton or carrasco

4:34
Brad Johnson: EZ Stanton

4:34
diadem: Wilmer Flores has been freed! Now what? Stud or dud?

4:34
Brad Johnson: BLAH

4:34
mskoonce: Ottoneu 5×5 – $35 S. Marte for $8 Pham/$6 Mikolas.  Which side do you prefer?

4:35
Brad Johnson: Pham

4:35
Brad Johnson: This time it’s the money that’s tie breaking it

4:35
Brad Johnson: I think that’s a fair swap with balanced contracts

4:35
DJ Tanner: Why are people hyping up Robles without knowing where Bryce signs? If Bryce goes back to the Nats, is Eaton or Robles going to the bench?

4:36
Brad Johnson: I think one of the OFers plays 1B until Eaton hits the DL

4:36
Brad Johnson: Or whoever, it just always seems to be Eaton

4:36
Brad Johnson: Harper seems the obvious choice to me. Could be Soto.

4:37
JD: Is Ohtani really going to be $20 floor hitter? I think he’ll get more ABs, but is he going to be a value add against RHP?

4:37
Brad Johnson: I think so. He was 5.25 pts/g last year, and I’m not convinced he’s futile versus LHP

4:38
Brad Johnson: At the very least, he’s Bryce Harper vs RHP – right down to the mechanics

4:38
P: More ottoneu specific content please! Love this

4:38
YTG: Was offered @ even money in 12-team, 5-keeper auction league; Thor for Seager straight-up…I own Seager, thoughts?

4:39
Brad Johnson: Seager isn’t a top 5 round guy in 12-team 5×5

4:39
Brad Johnson: Thor is.

4:39
Brad Johnson: Personally, I think they’re similar values because I tend to be the low man on Thor

4:39
Brad Johnson: But by ADP, you should take this

4:39
Brad Johnson: Then maybe swap Thor for something better than Seager 🙂

4:39
P: It’s too early to be holding on to a $7 Madrigal in 4×4 right?

4:40
Brad Johnson: I think so.

4:40
Brad Johnson: If Madrigal brings you joy, go ahead and hold a share. Just know you’re making a minus EV move

4:40
Aaron: Steamer is seeing a pretty significant step forward for Kepler.  Fangraphs auction calc has him as a $18 FGpts player.  You buying that at all?

4:40
Brad Johnson: Oh no

4:40
Brad Johnson: Not at all

4:41
Brad Johnson: He’s a $1 player who you could go up to maybe $5 on if you want to manage his matchups carefully

4:41
Brad Johnson: There’s breakout potential, but there’s also a lot of weirdness in the profile

4:42
Tony: Would you rather Jacob DeGrom or Stanton if it meant that you could focus your draft on hitting

4:42
Brad Johnson: Probably DeGrom?

4:42
Brad Johnson: Depends on context

4:42
Brad Johnson: I’m really in on buying Stanton shares this year

4:42
Brad Johnson: Actually, I say that

4:42
Brad Johnson: I haven’t actually succeeded in acquiring any Stantons yet

4:43
Brad Johnson: I’ve tried

4:43
JD: $38 Seager or $25 Ohtani Fgpts?

4:43
Brad Johnson: For 2019, push. For lifetime, Ohtani.

4:43
Not All Who Wander Are Franco: Roughly translating Ohtani questions to auction format. 12-team keeper league, $260 (27 players), keep 5. What’s Ohtani worth this year if he’s up for auction and is hitter+pitcher eligible for future?

4:43
Not All Who Wander Are Franco: **meant roto format, not auction format re: Ohtani

4:44
Brad Johnson: I’d be comfortable going up to $19. After that, it becomes situational

4:44
John B: What $ cap would you have for Trout this year in FG Points?

4:44
Brad Johnson: Again, that’s very situational.

4:45
Brad Johnson: Ideally, you’re paying in the $60s for him. He should be kept at anything under $150.

4:45
Brad Johnson: Not necessarily by you.

4:45
Brad Johnson: But a rebuilding team should be happy to trade like a $3 Nick Pivetta for $150 Trout. That’s 3 big rebuilding pieces post-draft.

4:46
Brad Johnson: People overestimate the ease of buying rebuilding pieces via the draft.

4:46
Brad Johnson: It can only be done reliably for $1 or $2 and that’s no way to rebuild

4:46
Brad Johnson: You need to gather premium expensive assets and convert them into premium cheap assets

4:47
Brad Johnson: And this must all be done in one season or else the arbitration process will ruin everything.

4:47
Brad Johnson: You have to be able to hide your $3 Juan Soto so he only gets bid up $3.

4:48
Uncle Chips: Keep forever, OBP League.  Need to select 2/3 from Corey Seager, Merrifield and Mo Swipes Adalberto Mondesi.  What to do?

4:48
Brad Johnson: This is difficult because Mondesi is an OBP killer

4:48
Brad Johnson: But could still outperform the other pair

4:49
Brad Johnson: Can you trade? If so, deal Merrifield. He value is peaked.

4:49
Brad Johnson: I’m tempted to say the keeps are Seager and Mondesi because of the keep forever component

4:49
Brad Johnson: They’re both very young

4:49
Aaron: Back to the Kepler question, if you owned him on the cheap right now are you still tossing him back and trying to redraft for $1?

4:49
Brad Johnson: Not necessarily

4:49
Brad Johnson: depends on the state of my budget

4:49
Slurve: How often do you flip a recently acquired player from a trade into something more “valuable” than your initial traded player?

4:50
Brad Johnson: I don’t want to brag and say I do it all the time… but I generally trade for the purposes of trading again.

4:51
Brad Johnson: It’s unusual for me to have needs so I’m usually just speculating and diversifying

4:51
Brad Johnson: And that helps me not have needs in the future

4:51
Brad Johnson: Diversification: It’s not just for Wall Street nerds

4:51
Not All Who Wander Are Franco: Rank ’em thru 2022 as dynasty bats in an OPS league:  Bellinger, Robles, Judge, Eloy, Benintendi

4:52
Brad Johnson: That is a tough list. Spitballing… Judge, Robles, Benintendi, Bellinger, Eloy

4:52
Brad Johnson: With the exception of Eloy who’s a bit of an unknown quantity, those guys are all very close

4:52
Brad Johnson: And Eloy hype probably has him in that range without a single MLB PA

4:52
Nash : Do you think Tallion will be a top 15 Arm next season?

4:52
Brad Johnson: Fringe-yes

4:53
Ben Jammin: What’s the right approach to thinking of keeper values: overall ADP or Positional Rank? For example, in a 10-man Keep 5 forever league, would you rather have Bauer (whose likely a consensus top 50 pick, but a questionable top 10 overall SP) or Realmuto (Well outside of the top 50 ADP, but the #1 C)? Thanks

4:53
Brad Johnson: Usually ADP

4:53
Brad Johnson: Realmuto is something of an exception

4:53
Brad Johnson: Perhaps the only exception.

4:53
Brad Johnson: I’d also devalue closers such that they’re never keepers in that format

4:54
Brad Johnson: So if you own Edwin Diaz, he’s not a keeper

4:54
Brad Johnson: (Unless your roster is ass)

4:54
Help Please: Hey Brad, 14 team H2H with OBP and QS, can only keep 5 of the following keeper round in parenthesis. Who do I keep and who do I try and trade? Stanton (1), Story (3), Severino (7), Edwin Diaz (9), Corbin (10), Aaron Hicks (10), Luke Voit (10), Matt Chapman (13), Mikolas (14), Peraza (15). Thanks!

4:54
Brad Johnson: Oh look, a Diaz sighting (hint, not him)

4:55
Brad Johnson: So Stanton kind of depends on what would be available to you in the 1st round

4:55
Brad Johnson: It could be anything! It could even be Stanton!

4:55
Brad Johnson: Story, Sevvy, Corbin are easy keeps

4:56
Brad Johnson: So that gives you 2 spots for Chapman, Hicks, Stanton, and Diaz (yes, I’m throwing him back because the league depth is a little deeper)

4:56
Brad Johnson: I would do one of Chapman/Hicks and one of Stanton/Diaz.

4:56
mskoonce: 5×5 Ottoneu.  Limited funds headed to auction, probably can sign 1 – $10-15 guy.  Which current starter is weakest link and should be targeted for upgrade- C D. Jansen, OF R. Laureano, MI A. Rosario?

4:57
Brad Johnson: I’d grab another MI. Or better yet, just take $1 backups and reserve that money for in-season moves

4:57
Just A Dude: Are you in on Wacha at $8 in H2H FG Points?

4:57
Brad Johnson: No.

4:57
P: You mentioned keeping as much value as possible going in to the draft. Do you have a specific dollar amount you like to go in to the draft with and an amount you like to hold back for in season auctions?

4:58
Brad Johnson: Not really

4:58
Brad Johnson: Ideally, I’d like $15 to $20, but I often go in with $2.

4:58
Brad Johnson: That Max Scherezer trade I referenced leaves me with $19 to spend on $17 player. So I’ll have $2 to spend again.

4:58
Brad Johnson: I have some tricks for surviving that.

4:59
Ken Giles Right Hook: Calling it now. Jose Castillo is going to be the next great Padres closer. By end of season he’ll 75% owned. 14% SwStr rate. No question, just a statement

4:59
Brad Johnson: I’m picking Diego Castillo instead. To close for the Padres. Yes.

4:59
JD: 11 roster spots $19 dollars available in FGpts. Dont need any SP only 1 RP. Strong offensive core. Need a starting util and catcher. Situation is doable, right?

4:59
Brad Johnson: Yes. Standard for me

4:59
Ben Jammin: Appreciate the response. Given that format who would you rather keep: Bauer or Realmuto?

5:00
Brad Johnson: If I had to choose right now, probably Bauer.

5:00
Brad Johnson: I’m not certain I’d feel that way if I had time to digest the situation more thoroughly.

5:00
Uncle Chips: Thanks for the advice Brad.  I can trade Whit, so I might explore that option.

5:00
Brad Johnson: Go for it. Maybe try Seager and Whit for a SS upgrade?

5:00
John: FG Pts. Keep $15 Schwarber? Money not an issue, I have plenty of cap space

5:00
Brad Johnson: Sure. He’s weird and confusing and still has name value

5:01
Robert L Krahn: John,

5:01
Brad Johnson: This is off to a good start

5:01
Robert L Krahn: Brad,

5:01
Brad Johnson: We’re getting there 🙂

5:01
King Donko of Punchstania: Higher ceiling: Luis Castillo or Jose Berrios?

5:01
Brad Johnson: Castillo imo

5:02
Brad Johnson: They’re both pretty ceilingful

5:02
Pete: In a 22-team auction league where the top 30 SP are owned, does keeping a really expensive Kershaw (say, 20% of budget) make more sense? Or still no?

5:02
Brad Johnson: Without more info, I can see that working

5:02
Brad Johnson: Can’t promise it’s the right move. As always, it depends.

5:02
Brad Johnson: But it’s not automatically insane

5:03
Brad Johnson: Any deep setting where elite talent is scarce, the overarching rule is to maximize that elite talent, even if the money is spent inefficiently

5:04
Brad Johnson: But if you’re in that situation, it means your roster is either very weak or super efficiently priced.

5:04
Brad Johnson: If the former, you must sell. If the latter, still consider selling.

5:04
Brad Johnson: Post-draft

5:04
Robert L Krahn: Looking forward to your Mound Musings articles.

5:05
Brad Johnson: You have mistaken me for the other Brad Johnson. However, I will muse about mounds if you so desire.

5:05
Brad Johnson: And yes, there is another Brad Johnson in Fantasy sports. He writes for Rotowire.

5:06
Brad Johnson: I grew up playing baseball a year behind another Brad Johnson. He was better than me until he blew out his elbow in junior year.

5:06
Brad Johnson: I have not won a Superbowl, but I have won numerous superballs.

5:06
John: FG Pts; Kirby Yates or Matt Barnes?

5:07
Brad Johnson: I think Yates because the SVs bonus is sometimes underappreciated

5:07
Brad Johnson: not only are saves an extra point, they’re also more plentiful than holds

5:07
Brad Johnson: However, Yates does scare me with his history of homeritis

5:07
Brad Johnson: He seemed cured for part of last season then re-contracted it

5:07
NDinzy: Brad, why is nobody talking about Tyler White? After lighting AAA (yes, its the PCL) on fire, he posts an .888 OPS with the Stro’s in a little less than half a season. Digging deeper we find a .307 BAIP and a 7.1% swinging strike rate (tasteful). He’s 28 but he’s currently slotted in at full time 1B/DH duty in THAT line-up. I’m calling .280-25-90

5:08
Brad Johnson: I’m keeping him for $10 in FGpts. On that roster where I already have no budget left.

5:08
Brad Johnson: Guy is a monster, and I’m trusting the Astros to find him the reps

5:08
Robert L Krahn: So Sorry

5:08
Johnny5Alive: How valuable is a $27 Nola in NL only roto dynasty league with $270 cap?

5:08
Robert L Krahn: Thank you for the information

5:09
Brad Johnson: Not at all a problem Robert, feel free to hang out and get to know a second Brad Johnson

5:09
Brad Johnson: As for Nola – very valuable.

5:09
Keeper League: What would you move Snell for in a Dynasty league?

5:09
Brad Johnson: Judge?

5:09
Brad Johnson: Some kind of elite hitter

5:09
Brad Johnson: USE THE HYPE MAN

5:10
Johnny5Alive: Are $21 adam eaton and/or $17 souza keepable in an NL only roto dynasty, or are they throw back you can probably get them again at the same price? 5 outfielders, 2 utility

5:10
Brad Johnson: I think you can throw em. Especially Souza

5:10
Donnie: Thoughts on Josh Naylor? He held up very well as a 20 year old in double A. Think he becomes a player?

5:10
Brad Johnson: I do. Huge power that hasn’t played as HR yet

5:10
Brad Johnson: But it will

5:10
Jonn: Vogelbach ever going to play?

5:10
Brad Johnson: I hope so, he’s so fun

5:10
Brad Johnson: Time to wrap it up

5:11
stonecold: would you be for keeping a $50 altuve, yelich, and goldy all on one squad with a lot of other cheap talent on it already? ottoneu FGpts

5:11
Brad Johnson: Yes

5:11
Brad Johnson: Without a doubt

5:11
Aaron: Thoughts on Winker this year?  Keep at $5 or move for more premium talent?

5:11
Brad Johnson: Keep without knowing more info

5:11
Brad Johnson: This is lazy, but Joey Votto is the ceiling

5:11
Larry Hutz: 5×5 Ottoneu: Keeping $7 Asdrubel Cabrera?

5:11
Brad Johnson: No

5:11
Brad Johnson: Hard no.

5:11
Pie Eaton Contest: Do you downgrade Charlie Morton in a QS league significantly?

5:12
Brad Johnson: Some. A couple bucks

5:12
Aaron: Have lots of salary space, am looking for a premium bat in the $40 range for Winker

5:12
Brad Johnson: Seems reasonable

5:12
Keeper League: Thanks for the answer…so basically you’d move snell for young power guys like judge, story, bellinger etc

5:12
Brad Johnson: Yes, I’d look to convert the uncertainty of pitchers into the relative certain of a young hitter

5:12
stonecold: What if i thought altuve would be available for less than $50 at draft?

5:13
Brad Johnson: It’s up to you to make that decision

5:13
Brad Johnson: I’d feel better about it if you’re going to draft before spring games begin

5:13
Brad Johnson: As soon as people realize that his knee is fully healthy… he’s gonna spike

5:13
Donnie: Royce Lewis up this year?!

5:13
Brad Johnson: It’s possible. Depends on the Twins performance and need.

5:14
Brad Johnson: If they’re not contending, he’s out until early 2020

5:14
Not Wall St. Trader: Can you expand a little bit on your comment about speculating and diversifying in regards to trades/in-season pick-ups? What does that look like while the season is on going?

5:14
Brad Johnson: That’s a better topic for a full article

5:14
Brad Johnson: One I’m sure I’ve written a few times 🙂

5:15
Brad Johnson: I feel like most of what I write is instantly lost to THE ARCHIVES

5:15
Brad Johnson: never to be seen again

5:15
PB: More likely to get close to 2018 stats: yelich or story?

5:15
Brad Johnson: I’ll say Yelich

5:15
Brad Johnson: Mostly because Story had that late season injury scare

5:15
Brad Johnson: so it’s possible he’s less likely to make it through the season

5:16
Pie Eaton Contest: Any interest in Michael Pineda?

5:16
Brad Johnson: Not as more than a curiosity

5:16
Brad Johnson: I’ve always thought he was a miscast reliever

5:16
Brad Johnson: If he was coming through the minors now with his pre-injury stuff, he would have never made it out of Double-A as a SP

5:16
Brad Johnson: (I say that, but that’s all very team dependent)

5:16
Aaron: If you were loaded up on studs, how would you feel about going into a draft with 20/40 spots filled and only $90 remaining salary?

5:17
Brad Johnson: I’d feel like I need to trade for another star

5:17
Brad Johnson: Gather up whatever scraps are left and offer them all for like $48 Joey Votto

5:17
Brad Johnson: That’s how I’d feel anyway

5:17
Brad Johnson: You did ask about my feelings

5:17
P: Favorite ottoneu format?

5:17
Brad Johnson: FGpts

5:18
Brad Johnson: And on that note, this ottoneu-heavy chat is OVER

5:18
Brad Johnson: We somehow didn’t talk about Nick Pivetta for 10 minutes

5:18
Henry: How do you feel about Nick Pivetta this season?

5:18
Brad Johnson: No! It’s over.

5:18
Ted Yost: I mentioned last week that I have been looking into stats when you curate or manage start your pitchers against roughly the bottom 20 offenses and found some interesting results. There is some noise with actually results but the xfip and K-rates with a handful of interesting characters. Nick Pivetta has an absurd 2.7 fip and 11k9. Sonny Gray, Luke Weaver, Kyle Gibson and Marco Gonzales all provide a very very  nice boost in value if you manage there start providing potential 3 something eras. Disco Tony is an other oddity I found, 3.2 xfip and 10k9 but produced an actual 5 era. All these arm could produce amazing value late in drafts depending on your build.

We hoped you liked reading Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 1/29/2019 by Brad Johnson!

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